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Pohl posted:The vector is most likely bats. I'll try and dig up some more info. Please change thread tag to  thank and god bless
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Sep 3, 2014 03:34
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laxbro posted:Wow, no wonder doctors and nurses are striking. I doubt those bio-suits are built to withstand a physical confrontation. More disturbingly, at what point do the authorities say, "either you take the 50% chance of survival and stay at the treatment centre, or we put a bullet through you."? I wish we had a better way to deal with it, but when you're dealing with a population that cannot be convinced of the germ theory of disease, I'm honestly not sure what we can do. I mean, I don't want to be facing a 50% chance of death either, but I'm equally sure I'd rather end it all for myself then and there rather than escape and put other people at risk of the same (and still probably die, because the only hope of survival is with medical care). How did western scientists finally convince PNG islanders that kuru was a disease transmitted by cannibalism and not witchcraft? Could we retrace their steps in this situation, or is the situation too massive and hosed up at this point?
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Sep 3, 2014 07:13
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PT6A posted:How did western scientists finally convince PNG islanders that kuru was a disease transmitted by cannibalism and not witchcraft? Could we retrace their steps in this situation, or is the situation too massive and hosed up at this point? Wikipedia says that it was due to crackdowns by Australian colonial police and mass evangelism by Catholic and Lutheran missionaries, and I'd believe it.
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Sep 3, 2014 07:22
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Interesting research paper looking at the potential spread of Ebola by the third week in September, showing how this will almost inevitably affect more and more countries. http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/assessing-the-international-spreading-risk-associated-with-the-2014-west-african-ebola-outbreak/ quote:We show by a modeling effort informed by data available on the 2014WA EVD outbreak that the risk of international spread of the Ebola virus is still moderate for most of the countries. The current analysis however shows that if the outbreak is not contained, the probability of international spread is going to increase consistently, especially if other countries are affected and are not able to contain the epidemic. It is important to stress that the presented modeling analysis has been motivated by the need for a rapid assessment of the EVD outbreak trends and contains assumptions and approximations unavoidable with the current lack of data from the region. The results may change as more information becomes available from the EVD affected region and more refined sensitivity analysis can be implemented computationally. Furthermore, the modeling approach does not include scenarios for the identification and isolation of cases, the quarantine of contacts, and the proper precautions in hospital and funeral preparation that would be relevant in discussing optimal containment strategies. Such a modeling effort however calls for better and more detailed data not available at the moment. Specifically this research assumes that Nigeria will be able to contain it, as they started it before the issues with the Diplomat and the Doctor. edited to remove a possible case that has now tested negative, the tests weren't expected back till Thursday. ukle fucked around with this message at 09:37 on Sep 3, 2014 |
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Sep 3, 2014 09:27
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ukle posted:Interesting research paper looking at the potential spread of Ebola by the third week in September, showing how this will almost inevitably affect more and more countries. It is completely containable, the point is that these countries don't have the resources or will to contain it. This is not going to go global, but it may kill a bunch of people in Africa. The horrible thing is, everyone (as in citizens from other countries, seem ok with that). Pohl fucked around with this message at 10:26 on Sep 3, 2014 |
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Sep 3, 2014 10:24
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Pohl posted:It is completely containable, the point is that these countries don't have the resources or will to contain it. This is not going to go global, but it may kill a bunch of people in Africa. If we've tried everything to get them to follow some pretty basic rules, and they still seem intent on doing exactly the wrong thing, at some point you kind of just have to sit back and watch. I'm not going to lose sleep because a huge group of people can't grasp how disease is spread.
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Sep 3, 2014 10:38
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Pohl posted:It is completely containable, the point is that these countries don't have the resources or will to contain it. This is not going to go global, but it may kill a bunch of people in Africa. Yeah its not going to be a truly global pandemic no matter what, but this research highlights its going to infect more and more African countries; Its probably inevitable, given the failings so far, that one of the 'new' countries wont be able to contain it either due to mismanagement or not identifying that Ebola is in the country till its to late to contain. The big risk is if Nigeria does end up becoming uncontrolled, due to the massive links that country has with countries around the world, and the possibility of it getting to another poor and ill equipped corner of the globe.
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Sep 3, 2014 10:45
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on the left posted:If we've tried everything to get them to follow some pretty basic rules, and they still seem intent on doing exactly the wrong thing, at some point you kind of just have to sit back and watch. I'm not going to lose sleep because a huge group of people can't grasp how disease is spread. Damning all for the sins of some is how every genocide is justified. I'm not comparing nonintervention against Ebola to committing genocide, just comparing nonintervention against Ebola to nonintervention against genocide, if I may be permitted such license. I agree with Pohl and others that it is horrible that the UN and/or individually charitable wealthy nations are not providing all of the logistical support, supplies and skilled manpower that West Africa needs right now. Ukraine and ISIS seem to be stealing Western appetite for foreign interventions, and yet when all is said and done this outbreak and its' associated famines and civil wars will probably kill more people than either of those conflicts will (assuming ISIS is destroyed soon). I have read a lot of hype about how China and the US are competing for influence and investments in every part of Sub Saharan Africa, so what is China doing now? They're uninvolved with anything else except their brinkmanship game over the Spratly Islands and they have first-hand experience from SARS, this is a perfect opportunity for them to save the day and grab some quid pro quo simultaneously. Randandal fucked around with this message at 11:08 on Sep 3, 2014 |
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Sep 3, 2014 10:51
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on the left posted:If we've tried everything to get them to follow some pretty basic rules, and they still seem intent on doing exactly the wrong thing, at some point you kind of just have to sit back and watch. I'm not going to lose sleep because a huge group of people can't grasp how disease is spread. No, everything would include a really big bomb with a mushroom cloud. This isn't a loving nintendo game you idiot.
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Sep 3, 2014 11:07
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on the left posted:If we've tried everything to get them to follow some pretty basic rules, and they still seem intent on doing exactly the wrong thing, at some point you kind of just have to sit back and watch. I'm not going to lose sleep because a huge group of people can't grasp how disease is spread.
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Sep 3, 2014 11:17
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:The vast majority of these people have no education on how to deal with these issues. Or if they do they often lack the resources to do so. Your stance would be like watching a child with no helmet ride a bike with no brakes towards a steep hill, say "brake", and then just shrug and walk away when the child keeps going. You don't need much education to learn that touching/kissing dead bodies can turn you into a dead body. I'm sure that they've been told many many times that this is the case. If someone is deadset on killing themselves through ignorance, just let them touch the electric fence to see what happens.
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Sep 3, 2014 13:04
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:The vast majority of these people have no education on how to deal with these issues. Or if they do they often lack the resources to do so. Your stance would be like watching a child with no helmet ride a bike with no brakes towards a steep hill, say "brake", and then just shrug and walk away when the child keeps going. They have no engaged education on the issue; my specialty is in rural education in East Africa, and its a mistake to underestimate the issues that even well-funded and well-supplied educational programs have for various and oft-contradictory reasons. For instance, let's look at Kenya. In Kenya, educated is mandated to be in English-only; English is not the primary and first-learnt language of most rural Kenyans, and even most urban, non-elite Kenyans. And the bar to be an elite in Kenya is much lower than elsewhere in the world. And few schools devote themselves to ESL instruction, much less evidence-based best practices of instruction. I'm only familiar with some of the complexities of Nigeria's educational system, and imagine the rest of West Africa isn't as simple as their byzantine dynamics. So, while there are cultural factors which act as barriers to epidemic control in West Africa, those same barriers are neither unique to nor nonexistant elsewhere from the African continent. And the longer Ebolavirus continues to spread in Africa, the more likely that an outbreak occurs in a region with the same sort of state structures and dynamics as African LDCs. It's just a matter of complex statistical modelling to determine the likely routes, locations, and timing of these international outbreak possibilities. Unfortunately, I'm certain that some prudent models are now having to include the increased likelyhood for separate transmission events to occur. Notadoc, correct me if my reading is incorrect, WHO's prediction for 20,000 under case management by the end of the epidemic assuming new infectionnumbers begin to decline after two months is WHO's way of saying it'll be necessary to build up infrastructure in West Africa capable of handling at least 20,000 cases concurrently. I believe current capacity is 150 cases at most in some nations like Sierra Leone, with new facilities not under construction at a rapid enough pace to keep up with the outbreak with all voluntary civilian assets fully committed. What was the figure I read, for every treatment center capable of handling 50 cases safely, around 300 staff are required.
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Sep 3, 2014 15:15
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My Imaginary GF posted:Notadoc, correct me if my reading is incorrect, WHO's prediction for 20,000 under case management by the end of the epidemic assuming new infectionnumbers begin to decline after two months is WHO's way of saying it'll be necessary to build up infrastructure in West Africa capable of handling at least 20,000 cases concurrently. I believe current capacity is 150 cases at most in some nations like Sierra Leone, with new facilities not under construction at a rapid enough pace to keep up with the outbreak with all voluntary civilian assets fully committed. What was the figure I read, for every treatment center capable of handling 50 cases safely, around 300 staff are required. That was clarified later in that report. Specifically they quote needing a total bed capacity of over 1,100; so nope the report is taking about 20,000 total cases over the total life time of this epidemic. Although the report is only a week old they might not have much faith in the numbers themselves, based on the language the CDC and MSF used yesterday. The WHO has been shown to be massively lacking in this epidemic and they should have been using the kind of talk they now are 2 months ago, if they had done then the resources might have been donated to contain it. After all its the WHO who should be leading this response, yet quite clearly aren't. ukle fucked around with this message at 17:04 on Sep 3, 2014 |
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Sep 3, 2014 15:52
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It distresses me, the degree to which Western news coverage (and Western solutions) focus on "keep the Africans at home so we won't catch it", to the exclusion of "There'a an epidemic and the lives of Africans are at risk." It's all very well to invest in armies to enforce quarantine, but investing in armies and ignoring the shortage of the materials needed to treat the sick is horrible.
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Sep 3, 2014 17:09
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:The vast majority of these people have no education on how to deal with these issues. Or if they do they often lack the resources to do so. Your stance would be like watching a child with no helmet ride a bike with no brakes towards a steep hill, say "brake", and then just shrug and walk away when the child keeps going. I understand where this is coming from, but I'd advise refraining from comparing Africans to children regardless of the circumstance. If I was going to make a comparison, I'd say that this sort of epidemic is fairly similar to how poor America struggles with obesity, or drug/alcohol addiction, or the abstinence/STI/teen pregnancy trap. It's about people who make poor decisions due to ignorance and a clash of outside education versus cultural norms, and contribute to a spread of societal problems.
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Sep 3, 2014 18:06
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To what degree does distrust of medical establishments, governments, or (ugh, I hate this term) the "West" act as an obstacle to effective intervention in the different effected areas? One potential rationale for not implementing a large-scale intervention might be the backlash from the population or different political groups.
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Sep 3, 2014 19:05
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IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:No. Just no. Vaccinations have enough PR problems without rumours about a modern Unit 731. There is no IRB(mandatory ethical committee) in the world who would consent to such a trial and I cant think of a disease where this would be necessary. I've worked on Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies for several vaccines including DTap, flu, Hib, and avian flu. A couple of other things to note: -Oftentimes, the control group can not be a placebo due to ethical reasons. Basically, if there is a vaccine already on the market, it is generally used as the control. Works great for flu vaccines, not so much for Ebola. -All of the studies I've worked on have made their determination of effectiveness based solely on the production of anti-bodies. I know most adult flu studies tend to have monitoring throughout flu season, however. Again, this is easier when there's already an approved vaccine on the market to be used as the comparator. I left the company before unblinding occurred, but you could clearly see in the Hib trial that about half the subjects had about a (and forgive me because I forget the exact numbers) 5x increase in antibodies, and the other half had a 20-30x increase. Obviously, one vaccine was much better than the other, but you can't get this info when there is no comparator.
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Sep 3, 2014 21:22
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WaffleZombie posted:I've worked on Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies for several vaccines including DTap, flu, Hib, and avian flu. A couple of other things to note: Excellent additions, thanks for that! Question: would you agree with my limited experience that for a disease such as Ebola or HIV where the clinical value of antibody production is unknown hard endpoints like infection rate and overall survival are used instead? ukle posted:That was clarified later in that report. Specifically they quote needing a total bed capacity of over 1,100; so nope the report is taking about 20,000 total cases over the total life time of this epidemic. I completely agree, my only caveat would be to what extent the case load the WHO is preparing for would also reflect the total number of infections. Pure speculation, but could this estimation already take into account that only ( random number = 40%) of EVD patients actually visit a hospital and thus the case load is significantly lower than the total infected population?
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Sep 3, 2014 22:34
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Nigeria may be in trouble. http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/group-world-losing-battle-ebola-25220329 quote:WHO: New Ebola Fears Mount in Nigeria
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Sep 3, 2014 23:29
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Randandal posted:I have read a lot of hype about how China and the US are competing for influence and investments in every part of Sub Saharan Africa, so what is China doing now? Up until a year ago the Liberian government was threatening to take ELWA land for a large governmental complex. ELWA is the main treating hospital in Liberia for Ebola right now and has been there since the 50's. They were given the land by the Postmaster and were literally the only thing out there for decades until Monrovia expanded. ELWA/SIM responded by erecting a wall across the whole perimeter over 12 feet high. The whole driving force? The Chinese were going to build the complex for the government. The Liberians protested it so much they backed down. Guess how nice that large wall is now that there's hundreds of ebola patients on the inside??? SOURCE: Me. I was at ELWA two years ago designing the new hospital campus. You could see the Chinese staging camp from any of the two story buildings.
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Sep 4, 2014 00:39
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More about that Nigerian doctor's "high risk" behavior. The short of it is that they're boned.  http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/fresh-ebola-fears-as-death-toll-surpasses-1-900-1.1988576#ixzz3CIqcKdVw quote:A Port Harcourt doctor and another patient there are now dead, and the doctor's widow and sister are sick with Ebola. About 60 other people are under surveillance after having "high-risk" or "very high-risk" contact with the infected doctor, WHO said. More than 140 others are also being monitored. Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 02:23 on Sep 4, 2014 |
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Sep 4, 2014 01:42
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Charlz Guybon posted:More about that Nigerian doctor's "high risk" behavior. Yeah. The Nigerians were unable to contact and trace some high-risk and very high-risk individuals until recently, when WHO took over management of the incident response. The big fear is that some individuals sought traditional healing when rumors of EVD first broke out. The possibility for things getting out of control is too high at this time. I don't anyone has an objective definition for the risk levels and how many high- and very high-risk exposures result in cases?
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Sep 4, 2014 03:09
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Cross posting from what My Imaginary GF posted in GBS UNICEF ordering 60,000 body bags for the next 3 months!  Table 3, page 6 http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/UNICEF_Ebola_SuppliesInformationNote_1Sept2014.pdf
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Sep 4, 2014 05:15
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Charlz Guybon posted:More about that Nigerian doctor's "high risk" behavior. Primum nil nocere or libera te tutamet?
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Sep 4, 2014 05:45
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This thread is loving depressing. I can probably answer any ethical questions people have about research on/treatment of ebola. I'm no medical ethicist (nor am I a doctor), but I've got a solid enough background in the topic (I teach the topic regularly) that I can at least explain those issues when the arise. So if you've got questions about that stuff, post 'em. In any event, research in Africa has a rather ignominious history, and I'm sure it'll repeat itself here, so if anyone has articles (professional or otherwise) about research being done let me know  .
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Sep 4, 2014 06:25
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Kaal posted:I understand where this is coming from, but I'd advise refraining from comparing Africans to children regardless of the circumstance. If I was going to make a comparison, I'd say that this sort of epidemic is fairly similar to how poor America struggles with obesity, or drug/alcohol addiction, or the abstinence/STI/teen pregnancy trap. It's about people who make poor decisions due to ignorance and a clash of outside education versus cultural norms, and contribute to a spread of societal problems. Right. People in Africa do understand that diseases come from not washing their hands, not cooking well enough, touching dead bodies, etc. When French/English lessons are taught, the words one day will be on "Hospital words" or the literature lesson will have a passage from a nurse's memoire on how bad hygiene causes problems in maternity care. Most people under ~30 here in Benin I see have had at least 5 years of schooling with these kinds of lessons drilled into them. It is a lot of cultural inertia and lack of infrastructure that keeps it going, especially in the poorest parts of the world. For example, how are you going to wash your hands in warm water when you need to trek to the local river 2km away to get water, and then spend the wood that takes 6 hours to gather every weekend to warm it up? We just open up the tap for drinkable water thanks to 100 years of development. Your entire extended family shows up to a funeral, and your head of family has traditional practices done. Are you going to say no to the man who controls your living situation (and is also your loving father/grandfather/uncle?) A lot of Jewish folks in the West, for a cultural example, still have their Mohels do the mouth-suck things with babies after they are circumcised, and a lot of kids are indoctrinated by their parents into distrusting vaccinations or think medicine is based on EVILution. Its just a lot more visible because Africa sucks and wants to kill people a lot more than Goonville, USA. Malaria, ebola, typhoid, yellow fever, etc. just don't exist here. Forgetting to wash up in the States gets you a cold, here it gets your baby bloody dysentery.
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Sep 4, 2014 08:02
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Kaal posted:I understand where this is coming from, but I'd advise refraining from comparing Africans to children regardless of the circumstance. If I was going to make a comparison, I'd say that this sort of epidemic is fairly similar to how poor America struggles with obesity, or drug/alcohol addiction, or the abstinence/STI/teen pregnancy trap. It's about people who make poor decisions due to ignorance and a clash of outside education versus cultural norms, and contribute to a spread of societal problems. Can anyone explain why it has jumped from western Liberia to Nigeria? There are five countries between them so is it just these suspect people who took flights out of the area? Surely it is not possible that there are unreported cases in small villages from Cote d'Ivoire through Benin? I know the Nigeria case is related to the West African one and not the latest DRC outbreak.
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Sep 4, 2014 09:13
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:Can anyone explain why it has jumped from western Liberia to Nigeria? There are five countries between them so is it just these suspect people who took flights out of the area? Surely it is not possible that there are unreported cases in small villages from Cote d'Ivoire through Benin? I know the Nigeria case is related to the West African one and not the latest DRC outbreak. This may be a different episode, I'd have to look it up. My initial post was probably wrong. Pohl fucked around with this message at 09:25 on Sep 4, 2014 |
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Sep 4, 2014 09:21
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:Yes you and other posters are quite right and that is not the most appropriate comparison. I'm actually aware of a lot of issues that low-income African regions/peoples have to deal with in regards to agriculture and of a lot of the health and safety shortfalls in relation to that. I didn't mean to make such a base comparison but I rapidly responded to a comment which is essentially 'lol if you told them off then let the dumbs just die' when what these people need is more positive communication, not to be ignored. Government worker flew to Nigeria, infected a dozen people. They almost had that breakout contained, but it turned out a doctor broke quarantine and may have infected dozens in a major port city.
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Sep 4, 2014 09:21
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Charlz Guybon posted:Government worker flew to Nigeria, infected a dozen people. They almost had that breakout contained, but it turned out a doctor broke quarantine and may have infected dozens in a major port city. Minor corrections: ECOWAS diplomat attends family funeral; sister comes down with ebola, takes her to hospital and buys her a room. Diplomat comes down with ebola, put under restricted travel advisement; diplomat boards flight while contagious, has a stopover, flies to Lagos and collapses at airport. Second ECOWAS diplomat, who met Sawyer at airport and had high-risk exposure contracts ebola, flies from Lagos to Port Harcourt in a private chartered flight to see private doctor at a private hotel room. Unknown at this time whether the second diplomat disclosed his contact with first diplomat to his attending physician. First diplomat dies, outbreak scare in Lagos. Second diplomat recovers, casting plausible doubt onto whether it was ebola or another, more common tropical disease which he was suffering from. Eight days after treating second diplomat, doctor becomes symptomatic; probably chalks it up to a tropical infection. Doctor is healthy enough to make rounds and perform surgery; doctor also married to a doctor (now deceased, I believe) so either two doctors convinced themselves it was a common tropical infection, they didn't suspect ebola, or they were grossly negligent in their duties. Quick timeline: July 20: Sawyer (first diplomat) arrives in Lagos, knowing that Arcter-Mital has tested and reported him to WHO as a laboratory-confirmed ebola case. Second diplomat has contact with Sawyer. July 25: Sawyer dies. August 1-3: Second diplomat arrives in Port Harcourt from Lagos on a privately-chartered flight, doctor attends to him in hotel room. Second diplomat makes full recovery. August 11: Doctor becomes symptomatic for ebola; during the first 2-5 days of sickness, ebola feels like a flu that one begins to recover from before the body goes into shock and organs begin shutting down. Doctor performs surgery and attends patients at his clinic. August 13: Doctor's symptoms worsen, doctor quarantines himself. August 16: Doctor reports for care at hospital where he has privileges. August 16-22: Doctor's ministry (belongs to a decently wealthy/middleclass church) visits him at hospital; around 60 known high- and very high-risk contacts with doctor occur during this time period. August 22: Doctor dies. Sometime between August 25, and August 27 I want to say?: Doctor's wife falls ill, reports for treatment. Redflags are tossed up. Sample taken for testing due to ebola-like symptoms with non-response to standard tropical disease treatment. August 27: Confirmed ebola infection of doctor. August 29: Emergency WHO response initiated; management taken over from Nigerian officials. September 1: WHO first hears official reports of the severity and quantity of exposures by religious group to doctor while under treatment in hospital; begins to mobilize emergency response to Port Harcourt. Orders USAID warehouse in the Gulf to ship emergency PPE and body bags to deal with uncontained outbreak in Port Harcourt. September 3: Contact locating completed; several individuals symptomatic for ebola, in isolation. Accuracy of these individual's self-reported contacts and locations between August 16 and present is unknown. Likely deaths that have occured and not yet been reported or suspected as ebola. Hopefully, no symptomatic individuals reported to traditional or faith healers for treatment and omitted this fact to contact tracing teams. As we have seen repeatedly during this outbreak, this may not be the case. E: Listening to yesterday's WHO press briefing, I'm beginning to read "We know how to stop Ebola" as "We don't know how to stop Ebola in developing nations." I'd be keen to see if WHO attempts any new strategies, as the present one isn't working too well. And the more West African elites who fall ill, the worse this outbreak becomes to contain. E2: What I'm talking about are WHO statements like these-- WHO posted:“In theory it’s not hard to stop Ebola. We know what to do. Find patients quickly. Isolate them effectively and promptly. Treat them. Make sure their contacts are traced and tracked for 21 days, if they develop fever, do the same thing and make sure they’re tested and treated. Make sure health care is safe and that burial practices are safe. The challenge is not those efforts, it’s doing them consistently at the scale that we need.” Issue seems to be that WHO relies upon trusting individuals to self-report and not deceive them due to a wide variety of logical reasons. Not just tracing and tracking, but also actively restricting mobility for those most-mobile (read wealthy). Yeah, life's going to get quite worse. The liability and economic pressures have put West Africa under quarantine from most global markets. Every day this stays in place, food prices rise, individual desperation increases, trust in any institution decreases, risk of infectious spread increases, state stability decreases, salary payments become more irregular and currency continues to inflate, and the thinner all responding resources are stretched. Its a trained, organized, disciplined, and well-supplied manpower thats needed for at least a 1 year commitment. Really, there are very good insurance risks underlying the systemic collapses that are fueling this outbreak. I don't see how WHO can fix this unless the world bank and its international donors are eilling to assume several trillion in insurance, re-insurance, and derivative risk. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 10:35 on Sep 4, 2014 |
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Sep 4, 2014 09:55
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:Can anyone explain why it has jumped from western Liberia to Nigeria? There are five countries between them so is it just these suspect people who took flights out of the area? Surely it is not possible that there are unreported cases in small villages from Cote d'Ivoire through Benin? I know the Nigeria case is related to the West African one and not the latest DRC outbreak. It was a diplomat, as others have said. But it also has to do with the fact that Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa as well as the most populous country. A huge portion of West Africa's trade goes through Nigeria. So there is a lot more cross-traffic from Liberia to Nigeria as compared to say Liberia-Senegal or Liberia-Mali.
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Sep 4, 2014 12:05
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My Imaginary GF posted:Eight days after treating second diplomat, doctor becomes symptomatic; probably chalks it up to a tropical infection. Doctor is healthy enough to make rounds and perform surgery; doctor also married to a doctor (now deceased, I believe) so either two doctors convinced themselves it was a common tropical infection, they didn't suspect ebola, or they were grossly negligent in their duties. At least one article had suggested some perfidy was involved, either that the diplomat didn't let on what he was ill with as you suggest or (more depressingly) did let on, but asked the doctor to keep quiet. In the latter circumstance, the doctor supposedly refused to be more forthcoming about his illness in order to protect the diplomat.
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Sep 4, 2014 15:21
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Looks like there was never any real hope this outbreak could have been stopped, and it doesn't look like anything has changed on that front. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/04/world/africa/cuts-at-who-hurt-response-to-ebola-crisis.html?_r=0
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Sep 4, 2014 15:53
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new numbers from WHO: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_09_04_ebola/en/ 
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Sep 4, 2014 19:22
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:new numbers from WHO: That doesn't look like a very good trend line for cases. The derivative is too high early and too low late.
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Sep 4, 2014 19:52
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http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/press/news/_layouts/forms/News_DispForm.aspx?List=8db7286c-fe2d-476c-9133-18ff4cb1b568&ID=1055 Updated risk assessment for the EU is now up and public. Some good insights into international transmission concerns to be found there. Frankly, things are likely to get a lot worse before they get better. One thing I've noticed is that WHO has moved back the their estimate for ending growth in transmission rates to three months, from last month's estimate of two. Three more months of exponential growth and case numbers doubling every 7-10 days.
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Sep 4, 2014 20:04
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My Imaginary GF posted:http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/press/news/_layouts/forms/News_DispForm.aspx?List=8db7286c-fe2d-476c-9133-18ff4cb1b568&ID=1055 And those new estimates are based on getting the money and resources they are pleading for. So those new estimates are also likely to not be correct, given the likelihood of them getting what they need is small.
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Sep 4, 2014 20:15
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ukle posted:And those new estimates are based on getting the money and resources they are pleading for. And I just came across this article: [url= How transmissible is Ebola? About the same as the 1918-1919 Pandemic Influenza
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Sep 4, 2014 20:29
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Ok, lets say there is a complete failure to contain the disease and it spreads throughout West Africa and into the the rest of the continent. Where does it end? How does a virus like this stop?
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Sep 4, 2014 20:31
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:Ok, lets say there is a complete failure to contain the disease and it spreads throughout West Africa and into the the rest of the continent. Where does it end? How does a virus like this stop? At that point, it probably doesn't, just becomes something to be contained.
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Sep 4, 2014 20:37
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