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Stratfor and Jane’s Assessed Russian Army in XXI Century http://mil.today/2016/Policy2/
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Feb 23, 2016 23:04
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special tactics posted:Stratfor and Jane’s Assessed Russian Army in XXI Century Interesting article. This stood out to me: quote:countries like the US, UK, France and others have also built up impressive capabilities to wage expeditionary wars far from their shores. That is a capability the Russian military currently lacks, he said. I'd love to know who the others are because US/UK/France basically covers everyone that has those capabilities. China? Japan? Also, Russia is plenty capable of waging at least a limited expeditionary war, as we can see in Syria. Pretty sure only the U.S. has a bigger fleet of heavy lift cargo planes.
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Feb 24, 2016 06:16
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redscare posted:Interesting article. This stood out to me: China definitely doesn't and Japan had Article 9 keeping them from projecting force for the past few decades and since dropping it, it'll take some time to build their carrier fleet, so it's likely they don't have it either. Just basing off who has aircraft carriers and offshore transports, I'd say Australia and Italy, maybe South Korea because it has an amphibious assault ship and is building two light carriers. redscare posted:Also, Russia is plenty capable of waging at least a limited expeditionary war, as we can see in Syria. Pretty sure only the U.S. has a bigger fleet of heavy lift cargo planes. That's kinda debatable. The Russian air force in Syria is minuscule compared to what NATO air assets have been in there. The only reason they've been moderately successful is because the rebels don't have an air force or long range and/or high-altitude anti-air defenses. Outside of the air force being loaned to Assad, Russian ground forces are pretty sparse and the whole thing is probably less than what the U.S. committed to Somalia in the '90s. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 07:28 on Feb 24, 2016 |
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Feb 24, 2016 07:20
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We published our new MH17 report today, 110 pages on the 53rd air defence brigade, an ode to OPSEC https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2016/02/23/53rd-report-en/
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Feb 24, 2016 11:49
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[quote="Young Freud" Just basing off who has aircraft carriers and offshore transports, I'd say Australia and Italy, maybe South Korea because it has an amphibious assault ship and is building two light carriers. [/quote] India has a respectable navy, including aircraft carriers.
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Feb 24, 2016 13:05
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Brown Moses posted:We published our new MH17 report today, 110 pages on the 53rd air defence brigade, an ode to OPSEC Someone on the Ukrainian Scholars on Social Media said its getting DDoSed and the main link is down. This is a link to the pdf on Dropbox: https://t.co/MrPlR3ZSy2
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Feb 24, 2016 13:54
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Seems be DDOS is over. We're getting huge coverage for it, easily our best read report yet.
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Feb 24, 2016 14:21
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Brown Moses posted:Seems be DDOS is over. We're getting huge coverage for it, easily our best read report yet. All the usual Putin fanboys are already going through their list, lack of EXIF info, suppressed US radar data, paid NATO employee and lack of 100% conclusive proof as if this is a corner shop robbery.
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Feb 24, 2016 14:28
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Brown Moses posted:Seems be DDOS is over. We're getting huge coverage for it, easily our best read report yet. Seriously happy for you and all the great work you're doing
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Feb 24, 2016 14:38
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CeeJee posted:All the usual Putin fanboys are already going through their list, lack of EXIF info, suppressed US radar data, paid NATO employee and lack of 100% conclusive proof as if this is a corner shop robbery. There's a new theory that all the videos are fake, and they're trying to prove it by inserting photos of vehicles into the videos and animating them.
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Feb 24, 2016 14:47
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Brown Moses posted:Seems be DDOS is over. We're getting huge coverage for it, easily our best read report yet. grats mate
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Feb 24, 2016 14:52
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Brown Moses posted:There's a new theory that all the videos are fake, and they're trying to prove it by inserting photos of vehicles into the videos and animating them. post the video
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Feb 24, 2016 14:53
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That's the theory http://energia.su/mh17/buk_vids/fake_buk_vids.html
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Feb 24, 2016 15:36
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That's a lovely conspiracy theory
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Feb 24, 2016 15:50
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Brown Moses posted:That's the theory lmao
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Feb 24, 2016 15:50
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Hell I'd be pretty fukken flattered if something I did inspired someone to write something that cringinly embarrassing!
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Feb 24, 2016 16:41
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quote:How to fake
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Feb 24, 2016 16:42
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So to take this to it's full logical extent, the videos and photos were all faked ahead of time, being careful enough to ensure the shadows in the pictures matched the times they would have actually been in those locations. Paris Match was then given forged photographs of the Buk in Donetsk to publish later. A phone number matching that of a vehicle yard in Donetsk was on the truck, and the owner was told to tell people who phoned him his yard was taken over and the truck was stolen. A couple of people unrelated to each other noticed the markings were a bit like ones seen in random videos found in Russia by scattered internet users. Someone else noticed the damage on the rubber side skirt was the same. Bellingcat brought that together, using never before used comparisons of rubber side skirts on Buks, to confirm it was the same one. We then found multiple videos of the Buk in a convoy in Russia, where one particularly obscure video showed another white mark on the other side of the Buk, which was also visible in one of the fake videos in Ukraine. Then we discovered multiple long established social media accounts that discussed the movement of the Buk as it moved through Ukraine, fitting perfectly with the fake videos and photographs. An AP reporter also made up a sighting of the Buk in Snizhe before MH17 was shot down. News organisations either made up witnesses who also saw the Buk, or who had all been told to lie about it to journalists. And all of that's not including the various fakery and set up required around the missile launch itself.
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Feb 24, 2016 17:14
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I recall back in 2012 when those Swedish people flew into Belarus from Lithuania and dropped hundreds of teddy bears over a Minsk suburb. For three weeks the Belarusian authorities including the mayor of the town that suffered the teddy bear bombardment denied it happened and claimed the videos on youtube were photoshopped. Three weeks later Lukashenko sacked a number of military leaders and government officials and arrested the poor college student who took pictures of the teddy bears and posted them on his blog. This report is excellent, BM.
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Feb 24, 2016 17:30
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Brown Moses posted:So to take this to it's full logical extent, the videos and photos were all faked ahead of time, being careful enough to ensure the shadows in the pictures matched the times they would have actually been in those locations. Wow- I didn't know so much was involved- keep up the great work!
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Feb 24, 2016 17:58
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Thanks for your great work, BM! So Miloš Zeman, the Czech President, told students during some sort of Q&A thing that they'll end up like Hitler if they don't drink alcohol  http://liberec.idnes.cz/milos-zeman...berec-zpravy_tm This guy is turning out to be a bigger embarrassment than Boris Yeltsin and that's pretty impressive.
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Feb 24, 2016 18:22
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mobby_6kl posted:Thanks for your great work, BM! Not necessarily German, British works too.
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Feb 24, 2016 18:43
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mobby_6kl posted:So Miloš Zeman, the Czech President, told students during some sort of Q&A thing that they'll end up like Hitler if they don't drink alcohol At this point, people either completely and unironically agree with him (and sadly that's plenty) or facepalm whenever he shows his face in public.
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Feb 24, 2016 19:28
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Comments left by LiveUA Map readers RE: Bellingcat Report. http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/24-february-mh17--potential-suspects-and-witnesses-from-putins#comment-2532295399 quote:Putin's 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade does not exist. It's fake. The presence of Russian troops is not fixed in the Minsk Agreement. There were none. The rebels at the time could not bring down the plane. Volunteers were both sides. All equipment from the rebels trophy, Ukrainian. Ukrainian nationalists want to impose on the public their views, or to eliminate. They want this officially. Russia supports the Donbass population. The analogy with Syria. Where the Islamists to impose their views. Mods, please change my name to lamestreet media.
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Feb 25, 2016 00:11
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anilEhilated posted:At this point, people either completely and unironically agree with him (and sadly that's plenty) or facepalm whenever he shows his face in public. So kind of like a certain US presidential candidate of the conservative flavour. 
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Feb 25, 2016 00:48
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Is there a reliable way to tell which commenters are paid shills and which ones are useful idiots?
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Feb 25, 2016 00:49
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Fojar38 posted:Is there a reliable way to tell which commenters are paid shills and which ones are useful idiots?
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Feb 25, 2016 00:54
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Lol I'm the butthurt Putin shills Well done BM.
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Feb 25, 2016 01:14
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I accidentally went on reddit and read the comments for Brown Moses's latest report. Hollllly poo poo. Not a single person actually had any criticism of the report, it was just pages and pages of "lol unemployed something awful moderator" "doesn't have needed credentials, didn't read lol." Out of hundreds of comments not a single one mentioned any of the content of the report, nothing attacked the evidence or methods. Just "not real journalist" over and over and over with the occasional dash of "paid nato propagandist" I'd like to think all of them are paid trolls but I'm sure many of them were just convenient idiots.
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Feb 25, 2016 02:50
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edit: oh poo poo i thought i was in gbs
George Rouncewell fucked around with this message at 02:57 on Feb 25, 2016 |
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Feb 25, 2016 02:53
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The Russian social media propaganda/troll comment army/online psyops effort is really quite successful, isn't it? I marvel at how often I see people willing to swallow the Kremlin's story hook, line, and sinker because they're AMERIKKKA leftists or Obama-hating right wingers. It serves so many people's deranged purposes.
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Feb 25, 2016 03:30
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A large factor is that the state also controls almost all media in Russia itself.
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Feb 25, 2016 03:40
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Baronjutter posted:I accidentally went on reddit and read the comments for Brown Moses's latest report. Hollllly poo poo. Not a single person actually had any criticism of the report, it was just pages and pages of "lol unemployed something awful moderator" "doesn't have needed credentials, didn't read lol." Out of hundreds of comments not a single one mentioned any of the content of the report, nothing attacked the evidence or methods. Just "not real journalist" over and over and over with the occasional dash of "paid nato propagandist" I'll admit I didn't read it. I looked at his web page and saw this: quote:There is no direct evidence indicating if it was Russian or separatist soldiers who operated Buk 3×2 when it was in Ukraine. followed, eventually, by this: quote:Ultimately, responsibility for the downing of MH17 from a weapon provided and possibly operated by the Russian military lies with the Ministry of Defense and the Supreme Commander of the Russian Armed Forces, President Vladimir Putin. Which lead me to believe that this was a hatchet job. But I watched a video anyway, the one where the two pictures of vehicles were compared. I didn't see it was "likely" a 3. I didn't see a "fairly clear" 2. Then I control + F'd the PDF for "likely" and it came up 117 times, so I didn't bother.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:56
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Thanks for letting us know the lengths you went to not to read a report.
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Feb 25, 2016 06:11
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anilEhilated posted:See, here's a problem. He's got a reputation of sarcasm that was overshadowed by a reputation of senility when he became president. He doesn't seem to be aware of that. Anyway, I'm in  Also went out to watch the Manchester City / Dynamo Kiev game and it was disappointingly civilized when the home team lost, though being in a German style pub in the city center probably had something to do with that.
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Feb 25, 2016 08:35
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Flocons de Jambon posted:I'll admit I didn't read it. That's been about the quality of criticism so far, case in point https://russian.rt.com/article/150429 They even got a 9/11 Truther to comment at the end. It should be an interesting couple of weeks for MH17 stuff, the police are giving a press conference in the first week of March, and there's an hour long documentary about it coming from the BBC at some point, which I feature heavily in. They have a section where they have Bellingcat's various claims, then someone offering their counterclaim, then they go out and test it in Ukraine.
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Feb 25, 2016 09:07
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Brown Moses posted:
I hope it's the 'this bridge is too low therefor it can't have been a BUK' as if the presence of a low bridge would present an impassable obstruction for an Army column. Imagine NATO invaded Donbass for real ! The Russians would be stuck on the other side of this bridge, unable to get to the front.
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Feb 25, 2016 09:34
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CeeJee posted:I hope it's the 'this bridge is too low therefor it can't have been a BUK' as if the presence of a low bridge would present an impassable obstruction for an Army column. Imagine NATO invaded Donbass for real ! The Russians would be stuck on the other side of this bridge, unable to get to the front. I don't think it includes that, but it does include the "no wires from the balcony" argument, which is nicely debunked. Pretty sure it also has Ray McGovern implying I'm MI5.
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Feb 25, 2016 10:30
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I think the rebels/Russians did it. I don't need much convincing of that. The investigation found Buk missile fragments. Every other plane that was shot down over Ukraine was brought down by the rebels. The rebels don't have an airforce, so why would the ATO forces be shooting at planes? Sure, it could be a false flag thing, but so could everything. The only niggle I have is I think the Americans have satellite imagery they aren't talking about. They used satellite imagery to make the case that Russia was firing artillery across the border. When Flight 9268 was bombed US officials almost immediately said it was a bomb. They said we know because of thermal satellites, and if there was a missile trail we would've seen it. So they had satellites over the area, they can spot missile trails, they're not shy about acknowledging this capability in other situations...what gives? Maybe they don't want to escalate the situation any further. I don't know.
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Feb 25, 2016 10:41
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The way I see it, any country that produces the solid evidence Russian was responsible is basically going to poison diplomatic relations with Russia for years. How could the EU work with Russia while they still deny they killed 298 people despite solid evidence being presented by their allies, or even a member of the EU. Which Dutch leader would allow themselves to be seen to let the EU move on from MH17 if that sort of evidence was made public by a government? You just have to look at Syria to see how Obama treats foreign policy, he's not the sort of leader who is going to drop bombshells like that.
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Feb 25, 2016 10:53
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