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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

DrPop posted:

All throughout this push by Russian forces on Mariupol and other parts of eastern Ukraine, you keep hearing "we didn't have any heavy weapons/tanks" from the retreating Ukrainian soldiers/volunteer battalions. Now that I'm following a couple different folks in Mariupol on Twitter, I'm hearing the same thing--and many seem to wondering where the UA armor/heavy weapons have gone. Are they simply not deployed in the area, and is the UA straight up just avoiding a fight? That's what it seems to be based on what I'm reading.

I'm not casting any value judgment on that either way--obviously it seems smarter for light infantry with no ATGMs/RPGs/tanks to retreat in the face of armor rather than get cut down. However, right now the conflict seems to have mostly turned into Ukrainian volunteers/soldiers getting shelled at blockpost/city A, retreating to blockpost/city B, and repeating the cycle over and over, with most of the "action" consisting of both sides' columns of vehicles periodically getting lit the gently caress up by something.

Note that the reason volunteers generally don't have heavy weapons is pretty banal, actually: most of them are legally interior ministry troops,
which are supposed to be light infantry and are not meant to have heavy stuff in the first place.. A lot of armed forces's equipment got mauled by
artillery, though.

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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Present posted:

Whenever I keep seeing articles on how the separatists and pro-Russia supporters are people too and are fighting for their blah blah blah, I just remember that they've been watching Putin's TV channels and literally believe that they are about to be invaded by Kiev's forces, who will kill all the men and children and rape the women.

This is literally what they believe they are defending their homes from. It's hard for me to identify with someone like that.

It is important to remember that they're in a sense also Putin's victims, even if they are pawns for his 4th term campaign.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Forgall posted:

Are people here seriously arguing Russia didn't get hosed by the West in the 90s? We trusted your advisors after our whole world shattered, because it seemed like you have figured that capitalism thing out. I certainly remember feeling that way back then and looking up to the West, thinking that those painful reforms were necessary. And all that did was turn Russia into neoliberal shithole.

As someone who was in Ukraine at the time, I think there was a bit of split responsibility going on: it wasn't the Westerners that were doing the stealing, after all.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

pigdog posted:

Russia got shafted, but overwhelmingly by its own oligarchs and corruption.

Well, part of responsibility lies with Western advisors who badly failed to understand the extent to which Soviet Union corrupted the society. (That goes for Ukraine as much as for Russia; fortunately in Ukraine the economic problems didn't manage to discredit liberal political values along the way like it did in Russia).

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
From @bishopk (BBC journo):

quote:

Just been invited to a DNR presser in Moscow NEXT TUESDAY about Kiev troops breaking the ceasefire that's been in place for 6 minutes now.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Majorian posted:


To be fair, that is the grammatically correct way to say it in Russian. But yeah, I try to call Ukraine what most Ukrainians want their country to be called.

Huh? "The Ukraine" can't be the grammatically correct way in Russian considering the language does not have any analogue of the word "the" (or "a"). I think you are conflating this with a similar discussion on what the appropriate Russian preposition to use with Ukraine is, but that has no direct reflection in English.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

pigdog posted:

:lol:

Just wondering, in your world did Crimea voluntarily join the waiting arms of Russia, too, without Putin being responsible for anything? Like changing legislation for that very purpose, things like that.

The medals and awards for "Return of Crimea" must have handed themselves out in Kremlin themselves, too.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

V. Illych L. posted:

Georgia was a really different situation, though - Russia had a very solid cause for war and were arguably in their full rights to do what they did in the situation, and didn't just outright seize land. Both of those are fairly important, I feel.

Note that Georgia was based on an earlier setup that wasn't too diffent from the events in Donbass, complete with Russian encouragement, funding, leading and arming of separatists. The most recent war there was actually part 2 following the unfreezing of the conflict.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
In bringing out the worst in everyone news, gazprombank has hired 2 former US senators as lobbyists:

quote:

The former Senate majority leader, Trent Lott of Mississippi, as well as John Breaux, a former senator from Louisiana, were hired to lobbying on sanctions and other matters by a Russian bank that the Obama administration punished in July, according to a recent filing
http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/BL-WB-48619

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Meanwhile Ukrainian media has some reports that large number of separatists are at the very least moving in to be positioned to encircle Ukrainian army positions near Debaltsevo.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Coohoolin posted:

They're not dudes. I don't know if that makes it worse. I just want a source- if it's met with "well that's obviously a fabrication" then I can start giving up. If all they're exposed to is Russian propaganda I'd be remiss not to try and increase that exposure to other narratives.

How do they feel about TV Rain or Novaya Gazeta? Well, they probably would think they are all American agents anyway..

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Zohar posted:

I assume what they meant was that the Russian government genuinely believes that the US effected a coup in Ukraine, rather than it just being their propaganda narrative, but yeah I was confused by that as well. I guess it is a plausible interpretation in that sense, that the Russians stole Crimea because they thought the US stole Ukraine.


Russia probably really does believe that, because of utter contempt they have for the Ukrainian people, with a corresponding belief in their lack of agency.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Gimmick Account posted:

Honestly, I find the casual way in which you suggest such schemes to be a bit revolting. As if lives were just some numbers on a statistic, to be calculated against some 'net benefit' or another.

Now imagine how Ukrainian leadership feels: they have to choose between various paths that lead to many citizens dying, or to many leaving under repressive dictatorship.

Seriously, I have to applaud them for having enough composure to not punch out half the EU higher ups every time they spout empty platitudes.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
There were some photos of burned out earth after grad attacks, too....

Anyway, there is a new entrant in the "satellite photos showing the Russians in Ukraine" business:
Amnesty International. They also have plenty of criticism for both sides.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:

For a neo-nazi it seems to come down to: who do you hate more, the homos (who control the EU) or the jews (who control russia)? This swedish piece of poo poo decided he hates jews more but it must be a tough decision: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28329329

When applied to Ukraine, they come up with a creative(?) solution: declare that the President and PM are
secretly Jews working for the US/EU gays.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Encrypted radio equipment would also likely help a lot.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Cat Mattress posted:

Outside in the broad, wide world? Plenty of guys who do. From this article, Israeli tend to side with Russia on this issue because 1. a significant portion of the Israeli population comes from the former Soviet Union, 2. Russia is an important strategic partner for Israel, and 3. Svoboda and Pravyï Sektor are Nazis so the Ukrainians are bad guys. (Also Israel isn't going to say that it's wrong to annex bits of a weaker country under the pretext of protecting your ethnic population that settled there.)


This is actually somewhat ironic since a lot of harder-line Ukrainian folks seem to look towards Israel as an inspiration/role model,
both from the "you have to fight for yourself" angle and "Europe is all talk, so who cares what they think anyway" angle ---
and, well, in interest in not getting I/P here, there are certainly both positive and negative lessons to be had there.
(There are also lots of comparisons between DPR/LPR and Hamas).

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
^^^^
Side note: Iraqi army actually bought some Ukrainian-built APCs. Wonder whose hands they are in now.

Malleum posted:

An overwhelming will implanted by Putin's cronies and wouldn't exist without the current Kremlin's propaganda machine. Don't punish the child for the sins of the parents.

While I agree that some people are going way too far, I don't think calling Russian citizens 'children' is appropriate --- they are adults, and their access to information
isn't completely cut off, so they do bear part of moral responsibility for their country's actions. (Much like any American who cheer-leaded for war in Iraq on grounds
of dubious WMD talk is partly morally responsible for the war).

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Ardennes posted:

Ironically enough, not even Russia recognizes Transnistria as a state, although every other breakaway state in the region does. They are on de jure Moldovan soil as far as the international community is concerned, it just hasn't been news for over 20 years.

Well, the article is that Ukrainian officials claim that local powers are recruiting militias in Transdniester for something, which they assume would be aggression towards Moldova (except any such groups could clearly be used against Ukraine just as well); at any rate the headline on that twitter link sure is misleading.

Edit: re-reading it seems like the claim is that the Russians are doing the recruiting plus training, and that the Ukrainian official is repeating reports from a Moldovan one.

http://zik.ua/en/news/2014/09/08/russia_plans_to_destabilize_situation_in_moldova_nsdc_says_521441
Seems like an English version of the story, don't know anything about the source though (just what google news found for it).

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 13:27 on Sep 8, 2014

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Ukrxplotation: Poroshenko gets an awesome new patch while visiting Mariupol:


For those who don't know: "Ukrop", which means dill, is one of the deregatory names for Ukrainians that has been used in this conflict.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Goodies? Just how condescending can you get. Ukraine is heading towards the West for two reasons:
1) People see how Poland solved the problems with corruption that are plaguing the country, and Russia didn't.
2) Some of Ukrainian citizens remember the horrific crimes of Soviet and Russian governments against the Ukrainian people and do not buy the "brotherly peoples" propaganda fig leaf. (The only brothly thing is that the Russians were abused quite a bit, too).

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Reports that one country is blocking further EU sanctions on Russia. Somehow I am reminded of liberum veto...

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

SoggyBobcat posted:

Hasn't one of Slovakia or Hungary been generally pro-Russian? It's probably one of them.

Those two have denied it.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

skipThings posted:

ten bucks say it's Hungary

Turned out to be Finland, apparently, as they were concerned about reverting them if "the ceasefire holds". (How about once Russia withdraws from all occupied areas, including Crimea?). With an attitude like that, the the Finnish PM should start practicing calling Putin "Grand Duke".

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
^^^^^^
Let's be real here. It won't have the same effect not because of international politics, but because the Finns would be treated as "real" Europeans (like, says, the Dutch), whose deaths actually matter, unlike these third world Ukrainians, which are only noticeable because Russia is the aggressor in the first place.


I presume you are not referring to them flying a flag under which millions of people were purposefully starved to death, with Donbass region one of the heaviest hit? Well, I bet many of participants are descendants of the Russians sent in to live on top of the Ukrainian graves. At least there don't seem to be the usual Stalin portraits.

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Sep 8, 2014

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

While I would be hesitant to rely on witness accounts for stuff like this, I do want to confirm one thing: Moscow[*] accent does stick out a lot. It's not the base/generic/news anchor dialect.

[*] Not actually limited to there, but the relatives I have that use it as Muscovites.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Nonsense posted:

Also the BUK that shot down the plane has been seen being driven by the Russian Army flying a Russian flag.

Yeah, though that doesn't mean they didn't "forget the keys in ignition" 50m from the border.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Deltasquid posted:

I remember someone in the previous thread posted a graph with popular support in the EU for intervention, which was 58% if I remember correctly, and showed the number to be in the 70% range for Sweden. Would anybody still have that? I'm having trouble finding it.

EDIT: nevermind, I literally found it right now.

Heh, well, at least one Swedish king (Charles XII) did hold the title of "protector of Ukraine".

Edit: notable because he was a co-signer of the Ukrainian Constitution of 1710 (the Pylyp Orlyk Constitution)

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 14:08 on Sep 9, 2014

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Vladimir Putin posted:

That's not even an appropriate representation of WWII. Russia won but with like 14 million dead.

I shouldn't be saying this to you, but the spin on WWII in modern Russian identity is overwhelmingly positive and centered on victory more than the cost. Also, please don't say "Russia won" --- there were plenty of non-Russians in Soviet Army, like, say, Ukrainians, something that the real Vladimir Putin would rather have people forget.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Come on, we all know the real question is:
"Are you now, or have you ever been, a recipient of State Department grants? How about baked goods?!".

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Ardennes posted:

The only way to get humans up there is with Russian spacecraft in the first place.

Can they even launch them without using Ukrainian rockets yet?

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
http://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2014/09/10/7037350/
(In Russian): a pretty interesting interview with Yuriy Buryukov (Wings of Phoenix), who is a volunteer organization leader that did a lit to help supply Ukrainian Army. He is pretty critical of volunteer batallions, the overall command organization and the generals.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Newsweek cover story on Russian soldiers in Ukraine:
http://www.newsweek.com/2014/09/19/russian-soldiers-reveal-truth-behind-putins-secret-war-269227.html

doesn't really live up to its loud headline, but does have some interesting info...

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Cuntpunch posted:

Am I misremembering the Euromaidan platform? Because I don't recall there ever even being a hint that the new government was going to renege on that particular treaty with Russia.

There may have been some desire for that among the new government (which doesn't entirely match maidan values, either), but there are certainly far more subtle ways of preventing that than military takeover.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Is there a transcript of that border guard document somewhere? I've seen scans of the Russian version, but the handwriting is so bad I can't make out the words...

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Phobophilia posted:

Also, I have no loving clue why the conspiracy crowd are saying it's a Ukrainian Su-25 that shot down MH17. Su-25s are a loving ground attack plane, they're like Warthogs, they fly low and slow and shoot things below them.

You could have picked any plane, and you pick that one as the one to j'accuse?

I seem to recall that the Russian defense ministry first floated the idea. They weren't really concerned with a credible theory, just producing alternative ones for domestic audiences and useful idiots overseas: IIRC they also made a bunch of claims about plane trajectory, other planes, etc., that the preliminary report debunks.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Hambilderberglar posted:

http://antikor.com.ua/articles/13410-igorj_girkin_strelkov_najden_mertvym_v_rossii
According to these guys Igor Strelkov has been found dead in Russia. I can't find anything anywhere else confirming this and I have no idea how reliable these guys are.
If it ends up being true I can't help but wonder if the Kremlin is now cleaning up the biggest loudmouths and anyone who might bring the fight home to Russia or be in a position to tell tales.

Meanwhile tons of journalists are liveblogging his press conference...

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Finlander posted:

Russia's probably not self-destructive enough to assassinate one of the leaders for the terrorist that they armed with heavy weapons just yet.
I mean, they're probably gonna do it, make no mistake, but acting right now, when the terrorist movement is in full swing and right on their doorstep, Putin's probably not going to give them a reason to attack Russia as well.

I think he took necessary steps to avoid being a target --- note the portrait in background:

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

This needs to be brought up, because essentially this Estonian police officer is going to prison for a long time.

Given how Savchenko "trial" has been going, there is little reason to expect justice (at best, a just outcome in
service of political expediency).

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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Ardennes posted:

According to the interviews I have seen from Vice, the residents in newly occupied separatist areas do full believe they were being shelled by ATO/Ukrainian forces. They talked to residents in multiple towns as well.

I don't know if makes much sense for the separatists or the Russians to shell their own position even for propaganda value.

Residents believing it doesn't mean they are right, considering the distance over which artillery fires, and that often the only news source for residents is Russian TV.

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