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Count Roland posted:Whats up with that first source, "Press TV"? That isn't the Iranian Press TV- do you know anything about the organization, possible biases they have? Fairly sure they're just a random Youtube channel that uploads news-related videos. Can't find any more info about them online and their logo is amateurish. It's not the original source for that video either.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:07
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Best Friends posted:Since Putin of all people believes he is in a Clancy novel I'm not sure no Clancychat works. How about a "no gameplanning WWIII, no talking about nuclear war" rule instead. Hopefully reality hasn't shifted enough that those are real options though posting them is probably jinxing it, sorry for the future nuclear war everyone. The New Black posted:That's more what I think of as Clancychat anyway. Not the weird geopolitical situations theorised but the people who come in and start comparing the NATO and Russian militaries and gaming out actual war scenarios. Agree with these. For example I'd say the idea of some sort of low-level Russian proxy incursion in the Baltics is, if not likely, at least within the realm of imagination, which is surely part of why the US and NATO are so interested in reinforcing their support for that region at the moment. It's been discussed in the media and in analytical circles for many months now as well as being intimated by Putin's supporters so I don't see why we can't discuss it -- if it's relevant, anyway.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:53
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Tab8715 posted:Interesting, however if the training is that poor. How come it appears that the separatists are winning against the Ukrainian Army They weren't. The recent turn of the tide was thanks to professional Russian troops getting involved. e:fb
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Sep 4, 2014 23:19
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Grey Fox V2 posted:Haven't the Russian's been doing that passport thing for years now? I recall that being a part of their tactic in claiming Russians in Crimea were under "threat". Yeah they did it in South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well. Couple articles on it: http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/3/ukraine-russia-crimeapassportizationcitizenship.html http://topics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/09/russian-passportization/ (from 2008) It essentially extends Russian sovereignty bit-by-bit into the region, which could mean anything from maintaining an artificial minority of Russian citizens they can use as pawns to destabilise the region or use as bait, up to preparations for annexation like Crimea.
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Sep 5, 2014 00:25
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The far-right party Svoboda still provides three people in the current cabinet (out of about two dozen), and I think there are a few of them as well as other non-party-aligned far-rightists in place elsewhere in the government. But yeah it's not a Nazi junta or whatever.
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Sep 5, 2014 01:30
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The article literally says "In Donetsk I had expected to find a totalitarian proto-state, and I did." It's not pro-rebel by any stretch of the imagination. If it's anything it's pro-actual people who live in Donbass.
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Sep 5, 2014 03:45
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Just in case anyone was still wondering where Orbán's real loyalty lies, Speaker of the Hungarian National Assembly and Fidesz boss László Kövér just recently called the Ukrainian conflict a 'circus' being staged by NATO/the US to isolate Europe from Russia (articles in Hungarian here and here). He also said the Western media was like Pravda and that the Ukrainian state doesn't exist. Of course he was still at pains to say how very important NATO is to Hungary and Fidesz is probably going to carry on playing its little double-dealing game until someone finally tells them to poo poo or get off the potty, if they ever do.
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Sep 5, 2014 12:41
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise-konfliktparteien-vereinbaren-waffenruhe-fuer-ostukraine_id_4111983.html Yep, though knowing Russian tactics over this kind of thing I'm not holding my breath for it to meaningfully last.
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Sep 5, 2014 14:04
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First English article on it I could grab: http://www.delfi.ee/news/en/obama/estonian-security-police-officer-forcefully-abducted-and-taken-to-russia?id=69681245
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Sep 5, 2014 14:09
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Situation on the truce: there's still apparently very heavy artillery fire raining down east of Mariupol, as well as rumours that the Ukrainians are withdrawing from their positions in that area though I would take the latter with a pinch of salt. The Ukrainian government has given the order to actually cease fire about an hour from now (3pm GMT, 6pm Ukrainian time). The People's Republics are back to pushing for secession though so a permanent peace doesn't seem to be on the horizon yet, even if the truce holds (not long ago media were reporting that they had switched to pushing for autonomy to fall in line with Putin's policy).
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Sep 5, 2014 14:55
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ronya posted:long post I agree with basically all of this, but this is, I think, more or less what people mean by 'ideological imperialism' or whatever you want to call it, at least in theory circles. If you're reading a situation in an inappropriate way because of your received preconceptions then, yeah, that's ideology of one form or another. When it involves exporting the politics of a highly developed country into a vulnerable country like 90s Russia, then that's imperialistic. I think what you've really struck at the heart of is the difference between the type of analysis which views this period of globalisation as basically a conspiracy, and people like me and you (I think) who see this, at least in its international dimension, as to do with performativity, ingrained ideology, and basically people doing what they think is best even to the extent of doublethink -- rather than just a cynical ploy. All that said I don't want to derail yet another thread into a highly abstract political theory discussion so I'll leave it at that. OhYeah posted:I have a sneaking suspicion that those were criminals, not Russian officials. There's a difference? More seriously, I find it difficult to believe from the immediate details that some element of the Russian state wasn't involved somewhere along the line. The border between organised crime and the state is, as far as I know, still pretty diffuse.
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Sep 5, 2014 15:37
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Rincewinds posted:Russia totally supports the ceasefire guys, they are just adjusting the borders a little. Can't watch the video since I'm on my phone but does he specifically talk about them being ethnic Russian but bearers of Ukrainian passports like the article suggests because if so that is loving suspicious after the reports about Russian passports being handed out.
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Sep 6, 2014 01:06
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I wrote to KGS NightWatch (a widely-read geopolitical newsletter) a few days ago taking issue with some of their analysis, and they actually replied to me. Thought people here might be interested in their reply, for what it's worth:quote:Thanks for taking the time to write and for sharing your insights. For us, Russian behavioral analysis requires a constant weaving of official statements, news coverage and physical acts on the ground. For example, it was always clear Russia intended to take back Crimea because its actions matched its official statements and the news coverage served as a double check.
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Sep 6, 2014 15:03
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eXXon posted:
I assume what they meant was that the Russian government genuinely believes that the US effected a coup in Ukraine, rather than it just being their propaganda narrative, but yeah I was confused by that as well. I guess it is a plausible interpretation in that sense, that the Russians stole Crimea because they thought the US stole Ukraine. e: I should probably also clarify that I don't agree with them which is why I wrote in the first place (I just said I think they're giving too much credence to Russia's official viewpoints and I don't share their confidence in Putin's objectives in Ukraine being limited). Zohar fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Sep 6, 2014 |
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Sep 6, 2014 15:28
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Killer-of-Lawyers posted:Yeah, like I said, the Russians can believe in whatever crazy conspiracy they want to. I don't buy it from anyone in this thread. Neither do I think the people in charge of Russia are that dumb either. If they are though, it's not exactly worrying. There aren't many non-NATO countries left for them to slice up. Well, it sounds like NightWatch thinks they're on course for a confrontation with NATO of some sort in the Baltics, so yeah.
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Sep 6, 2014 16:01
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Cat Mattress posted:Meanwhile, what's on RT? IS to become a contractor to NATO, yep, that's good old RT alright. Man, I used to read Pepe Escobar pretty regularly. He always had this annoying anything-the-West-does-is-bad tendency but since the start of this crap he's become a total, paid-for Russian shill and it's kind of sad.
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Sep 6, 2014 17:08
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UlwMZ2zZVc This was posted on Reddit earlier today, I went through this thread and the last and don't think it's been posted here yet -- sorry if it has. It's Yatsenyuk commenting on the situation without realising he was being recorded: quote:It's an undisguised Russian aggression out there now. Their army. He seems utterly defeated from the video.
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Sep 6, 2014 18:30
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Yeah I'm gathering from social media that the commanders of Novorossiya issued a statement a couple of hours ago to the effect that the Ukrainian government has violated the ceasefire. Reports are that at least one of the rebel 'self-defence groups' has resumed fighting.Majorian posted:Who was he saying this to? I never thought I'd feel bad for him. The only info I can find is that was before a scheduled press conference.
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Sep 6, 2014 21:36
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Niedar posted:The reports are that it is Ukraine doing the shelling in Mariupol outskirts, not Russia/rebels. The rebels are definitely claiming that it's Ukraine doing it, but obviously that means very little.
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Sep 6, 2014 21:51
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Bizarre seeing the "Ceasefire largely holding" story spreading around the media while Mariupol is literally getting shelled. WaPo's just-published story doesn't even mention it. e: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLd8rD0tc8E Video of the shelling (or audio anyway, you can't really see anything) Zohar fucked around with this message at 21:59 on Sep 6, 2014 |
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Sep 6, 2014 21:56
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Ardennes posted:I think it is largely just the Western especially American media being continually flatfooted through this whole affair. I don't think there are even many Western journalists out there, the footage I have seen has pretty much been from Vice. Yeah, I guess that's unavoidable to some extent. It's some pretty amazing dissonance though. Latest news: the DNR's official Twitter account says their forces are taking Mariupol. 
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Sep 6, 2014 22:14
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This sounds bad...
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Sep 6, 2014 22:27
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It pays to be specific guys, there are literal close-up shots of burnt and badly mutilated corpses in the last couple of minutes so don't watch it if you don't want to see that poo poo!
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Sep 6, 2014 23:45
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Huntington's specific forecast in Clash of Civilizations was that Ukraine would most likely "remain united, remain cleft, remain independent and generally cooperate closely with Russia", which follows as a direct result of his idea that Ukraine is part of the same civilisation as Russia -- "The Russian-Ukrainian relationship ... is the core essential to unity in the Orthodox world". If anything what the current crisis has shown is that Russia is going its own, specifically Russian way, and that the 'Orthodox world' is a phantasm. I don't know where people are getting the idea that the current crisis has proven him to be a great prophet. And as far as this goes: Phlegmish posted:Huntington has been far more successful at predicting the twenty-first century than the usual slew of culture-ignoring neoliberal/Marxist analysts. Do you have any particular analysts in mind here? I struggle to think of any major IR theorists who outright deny or ignore the presence of meaningful cultural differences, whether among the American neo/neo consensus or in alternative interpretations. Certainly the various streams of constructivists, 'postmodernists', and neo-Gramscians -- the latter being the most important brand of Marxist analyst in contemporary IR -- can't be accused of ignoring culture when to a large extent it's their entire focus.
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Sep 8, 2014 16:24
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SoggyBobcat posted:Hasn't one of Slovakia or Hungary been generally pro-Russian? It's probably one of them. Hungary is the one that's been pretty much explicitly pro-Russian, but I read a couple days ago that Slovakia has actually been even more pro-Russian in the negotiations recently for whatever reason. Any Slovaks in the thread?
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Sep 8, 2014 16:57
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Huh, so Putin has a third beachhead. vvv 
Zohar fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Sep 8, 2014 |
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Sep 8, 2014 16:58
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Majorian posted:Well, Huntington's characterizations aside, though, I do think there is something to there being a cultural divide between Eastern and Western Ukraine that goes deeper than even religious lines - after all, Western Ukraine is, on average, more religious than Eastern Ukraine. I think the fault line demarcates how strongly, on average, the populations of these regions feel a uniquely "Eurasian" identity. One could call it a "culturally Orthodox" identity, one which can be seen in practicing Russian Orthodox nationalists and non-religious Communists alike. A lot of this was probably determined by the fact that Eastern Ukraine was in the Russian orbit for longer than the western regions, which were part of Poland and/or other powerful states. Of course there is, I agree, though I don't think that has anything to do with Huntington's thesis about civilisations. But remember that, as it is right now, the conflict we're seeing isn't taking place over the famous Ukrainian divide -- it's between what's now a largely politically united Ukraine and fringe separatists in the very far east of the country. The fact that the rebels have increasingly lapsed into being a Potemkin movement propped up entirely by direct Russian support suggests to me that this divide is not nearly as important to the current crisis as it's sometimes made out to be, as it appears to be superseded both by generic economic factors and by the immediate interests of concrete, state-directed geopolitics. If anything like what we could call the supremacy of cultural factors thesis were true, we would have expected the east-west divide in Ukraine to explode as soon as the conflict emerged -- and that's what many Russians seemed to expect. But, despite the short-lived pro-Russian movement in the east, that's not what happened.
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Sep 8, 2014 17:16
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In Hungary news Orbán is cranking up his project of Putinization again. He was at a Fidesz party meeting on the 6th saying the left-liberals would never return to power and (again) that democracy doesn't need liberalism, then he showed up at one of the country's top univerities on the 7th to tell them that modern democracy had abandoned the necessities of 'principle, honour, greatness, home(land), devotion, rank, order, and firmness' and that the current 'national government' was breaking with the past and beginning a 'new era'.
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Sep 9, 2014 02:36
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Rinkles posted:What are the origins of Fidesz' coziness with Putin? It's unclear. It goes back at least to 2009, when Orbán (as opposition leader) met Putin at a United Russia congress. If you go back to commentary from that time, there were a lot of questions about what Orbán was aiming to achieve and what the details of their discussions were. Fidesz's pro-Russian stance has steadily hardened from that time. Eva Balogh has a couple of informative discussions of it in English: http://hungarianspectrum.wordpress.com/2009/11/24/negotiations-between-putin-and-hungarian-opposition-leader/ (2009) http://hungarianspectrum.wordpress.com/2010/11/20/viktor-orban-and-russia-continued-confusion/ (2010) http://hungarianspectrum.wordpress.com/2013/03/05/viktor-orbans-russian-roulette/ (2013) http://hungarianspectrum.wordpress.com/2014/04/10/viktor-orban-is-the-real-danger-not-the-hungarian-far-right/ (2014) Like she points out in the last piece, at least part of it is Orbán absorbing ideas from Jobbik, which we know is funded from Moscow; one of their MEPs is even thought to be a Russian spy.. e: It's worth pointing out the enormous irony of all this, for those who don't know: Orbán was one of the main leaders of the movement that toppled communist rule and Fidesz started off as a libertarian, extremely pro-Western party. Zohar fucked around with this message at 02:54 on Sep 9, 2014 |
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Sep 9, 2014 02:50
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Rinkles posted:If I was a Polish right wing conspiracy theorist, I'd suspect he was an informant during the communist regime. He was apparently censured for having "Stalinist tendencies" when he was at university under communism  Honestly, though, my feeling is that it's less to do with financial interests and the like, and more just that Orbán is an enormous narcissist. I think around 2008 he decided the West was actually on the wrong side of history, and he started the 'Eastern opening' and now the illiberal democracy stuff because he can't abide the idea of not going down in the history books as a hero. Not to mention that it lets him play at being a dictator.
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Sep 9, 2014 03:09
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Ardennes posted:Yes, the elections were legal but everything else was slanted. Fidesz wrote into the new constitution a greater emphasis on single member districts ie FPTP (first pass the post) and like most FPTP systems, a strong plurality can easily give you a majority or super-majority. Hungary isn't a full FPTP system but it is now much more of one and the more parties that split the vote, the easier it is for Fidesz to hold its districts since it just needs more than any other party. Unfortunately, a two party system isn't going to be possible because of Jobbik and the center-left will never cooperate on a electoral level, so Fidesz will have control until the party or Orban completely meltdown/revolution. Of course, the issue is that Hungary is has been in the EU 10 years at this point and if anything is less democratic than since 1989, being a member of the EU doesn't necessarily mean you're much of a democracy, or have freedom of the press. To a large extent Orbán is a perfect example of Caesarism: he smashed the previous constitution on a wave of immense popular support, and he can still rely on a fairly decisive plurality of voters. He doesn't need to outright manipulate elections -- yet, anyway -- though he's implemented constitutional tricks to fortify his rule and looks to be importing the forms of 'political engineering' that are popular in the former Soviet countries, where democracy is manipulated and subverted in various ways but you don't necessarily have actual ballot-stuffing and the like. The usual example is the trick where the government sets up fake opposition parties to siphon popular support away from the real opposition. Something similar did happen in the last Hungarian elections, though it didn't end up being especially successful. (Of course there is also some merit to the idea that Jobbik fills this role.) The role of the EU in all this is unfortunate. For the last four years liberals in Hungary have been hoping against hope for EU and other European institutions to do something to stop Orbán's onslaught on liberal democracy, but barely anything has been forthcoming other than a slap on the wrist from the Venice Commission. The EU has carried on throwing money at Hungary, and this is increasingly -- I think rightly -- being seen as, if anything, actively harmful to the prospects of Hungarian democracy because it supports the transformation of Hungarian politics and civil society generally into a struggle for patronage. Unfortunately the EU's lack of meaningful response has seriously undermined whatever credibility it had left, which in turn is demoralising what remains of the liberals and the left, and strengthening the hand of the Orbánites and the far right. The left and centre are so fractured now that Jobbik has established itself as the real second party and if there is a two-party system it's going to be between Fidesz and Jobbik. Which is frankly a nightmarish prospect in the sense that you now have a choice between what's effectively a cult of personality dallying with fascism, and a party that's just outright fascist. Some choice!
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Sep 9, 2014 16:52
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A few people in the thread seem to be under the impression that Putin's support was seriously suffering before the crisis hit, and that it can therefore be explained as a naked attempt to crank up his popular support. That's just not true. Putin did face problems around 2011-12, especially when the protests hit that winter, but his support in the polls stabilised back in the solid 60s later in 2012 and stayed there up until the start of the crisis. Gantolandon posted:I wouldn't put much hope in popular support, it can change in a heartbeat. Now they want to beat some homonazis, but it's hard to sustain nationalistic fervor without a constant stream of victories. Devastating Donbass is a consolation prize at best. I really disagree on this point to be honest. I am very pessimistic about the prospects of any meaningful break against Putin in Russian public opinion. The track record shows that Russian political technologists are extremely effective at their jobs, and they will pull out all the stops to make sure that Putin's core support remains where it is if things go south. The only people who I think are in any real danger of fluctuation are the well-educated creative classes who have a better chance of seeing through the various smokescreens, but they've always been politically peripheral, as the failure of the 2011-12 movement demonstrated.
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Sep 11, 2014 00:42
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Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:Armed far-right veteran's groups are a very good thing to have in a country about to go through an economic cataclysm: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis?CMP=twt_gu This is the big problem. Someone above mentioned Russia might be attempting to build a stab in the back legend around Poroshenko, and that's what I said might be happening while the ceasefire negotiations were going on as well. Entirely possible that they're using the ceasefire to consolidate while provoking the real Ukrainian far right to do something so they can have a more solid casus belli if and when the fighting resumes.
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Sep 11, 2014 14:40
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In case anyone was wondering what Strelkov is up to now following the press conference, well he's apparently moved to Moscow 'to protect President Vladimir Putin from enemies and traitors' and called for a left-right Querfront to support Putin and crush any opposition http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/ukraine-rebel-leader-vows-to-stay-in-moscow-to-protect-putin-against-fifth-column/506872.html http://www.interpretermag.com/is-strelkov-the-ernst-rohm-of-putins-russia/
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Sep 12, 2014 14:57
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OddObserver posted:Seems like some parts of Ukriane-EU association agreement may be delayed in implementation for over a year? The agreement in general is being suspended, at least according to the Ukr FM: quote:“The sides agreed that it would take time to clarify these issues, that is why the implementation of the association agreement between Ukraine and the European Union after its ratification would be postponed till the end of 2015, till December 31, 2015,” Ulyukayev said, adding that the sides would have 15 months to reach a compromise on that issue. In the current climate "till the end of 2015" is equivalent to "for the foreseeable future", so as far as I can see it's a total capitulation on Poroshenko's part.
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Sep 12, 2014 20:58
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It seems increasingly clear to me that the Russians are attempting to set Poroshenko and the Yatsenyuk government against each other, and are probably succeeding. Compare these statements from today:quote:In an interview with the Russian television channel TV Centre, [Lavrov] said the Ukrainian prime minister "is undertaking efforts not in the interests of his own country, but of those who want to sow discord between the Ukrainian and Russian peoples and drive a deep and wide wedge between Russia and Europe". (Guardian) And quote:“I think [Petro] Poroshenko is interested in promoting the peace agreements and needs support, first of all from the West, which staked on the transition of the situation in Ukraine from the post-Maidan state to a legitimate course. It’s with that purpose that the presidential elections were announced,” Lavrov told the Russian TVC channel. All the ceasefire negotiations and the discussions with Putin are coming from Poroshenko's office. Meanwhile, quote:[Yatsenyuk] said: "We are still in a stage of war and the key aggressor is the Russian Federation … Putin wants another frozen conflict [in eastern Ukraine]." (Guardian) Note also that Yatsenyuk confirmed today that he would be standing for election separately from the Poroshenko Bloc. (Pravda.ru is currently reporting this as "Yatsenyuk and Poroshenko dividing Ukraine".) This goes back earlier, though, RT was reporting in late August that "the clear anti-Russian line was mainly promoted by Ukrainian PM Arseny Yatsenyuk" and that Poroshenko is pro-Russian. e; Going back through the previous week's news I wouldn't be surprised if at least part of the instability of the ceasefire is down to powerplays going on in Kyiv Zohar fucked around with this message at 18:46 on Sep 13, 2014 |
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Sep 13, 2014 18:36
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Dolash posted:I now crave war in Eastern Europe just so this thread has something to talk about that isn't an endless an unbearable newsless circlejerk. If they had taken Mariupol you would almost certainly have heard about it. The attack at the airport was repulsed, at the moment I don't think there's any major conflagration going on. DPR representatives have apparently disavowed the substance of the Minsk Agreement though.
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Sep 14, 2014 02:05
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Maarek posted:You can't poo poo up something that's made out of poo poo to begin with. No one in this thread has any problems with posters continuously restating stuff about HOMONAZIS and invectives about Russia. Either this is a topic of debate and discussion or it's a hugbox for people to say angry words about Vlad Putin. I would recommend checking kalstrams' post history if people need an example of how you can talk about the invasion of Ukraine without being a pointless white noise poster. To be honest I don't think there are any particularly good places online for in-depth discussion of the crisis. /r/ukrainianconflict is much much better for keeping up with the actual news if only because Reddit's posting system means each event gets its own thread and week-long derails are basically impossible, the mods there are also reasonably proactive unlike this thread.
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Sep 15, 2014 00:45
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Fairly sure the linked article only says the artillery they're using has nuclear capabilities, but someone with a better understanding of Russian than me can confirm: http://www.segodnya.ua/regions/donetsk/terroristy-v-donbasse-imeyut-yadernye-snaryady-moshchnostyu-do-dvuh-kilotonn-minoborony-552181.html
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Sep 15, 2014 14:37
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OddObserver posted:There are reports that Donetsk separatists have seized Consulates of Czech Republic and Poland. No, and embassies aren't either despite the popular myth. The question is the status of the people there.
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Sep 16, 2014 13:41
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