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https://news.vice.com/article/former-top-official-says-kim-jong-un-is-no-longer-in-control-of-north-korea So apparently Kim Jong Un is ill, and I don't mean his father, either. HA HA HA OH GOD But seriously, it looks like the most chode-like despot is going to be gone soon. What do you think will happen to Korea in that case? Will the North collapse and become a black hole of money for the world? Or will Tom Clancy cream himself as crazed generals go balls-out nuclear against Japan?
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Oct 5, 2014 09:41
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They will keep his temperature controlled corpse in a special for as long as possible so they can continue to pose it for pictures as proof that he's alive, or his wife has a male child and they appoint the baby Dear Leader.
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Oct 5, 2014 10:11
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too bad clancys in the grave
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Oct 5, 2014 10:18
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A North Korean delegation paid a surprise visit to the South for talks, and have agreed to hold more talks soon. With all luck, maybe it can end with a whimper and not a bang? If the rumors are true and Kim Jong Un hasn't been in power for a long time, maybe those who actually are want to cut their losses before everything goes to hell. Then again, they could all ruin it tomorrow with the usual bellicose invective, but I don't think their military has the power to do anything besides marching in parades.
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Oct 5, 2014 11:03
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Auritech posted:A North Korean delegation paid a surprise visit to the South for talks, and have agreed to hold more talks soon. The top echelon of power probably knows their only chance to hold on to the luxuries and privileges they have is to ease into a SK/NK unification over decades and if they acquiesce on certain things South Korea won't bother trying to hold them accountable for NK's actions and they'll get a pass on any of the horrific poo poo they may have done. Most of the senior leaders are probably 50s/60s, and can expect to stay in power for another 2 decades unless a Dear Leader decides to execute them while the two Koreas work out the $800 billion cost of unification. The two previous leaders enjoyed vast periods of prosperity, especially Sung Il, and things didn't go to poo poo for Jong Il until the CCCP collapsed and the money stopped coming in. Between 1970 and late 1980s North Korea was doing better then South Korea in many areas. After that, it became famine after famine, rigid control of the population, mass jailing of dissidents and families, drastically restricted food intake, and generally a lovely situation where Jong Il just enjoyed watching tons of American movies, playing golf, buying 10% of the yearly supply of Hennessy, and occasionally making proclamations to the people to resist Western imperialism and staging elaborate displays of the army's power.
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Oct 5, 2014 11:25
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I feel like the way north korea is set up, it sorta has to implode. I can't really imagine it transitioning peacefully, unfortunately.
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Oct 5, 2014 11:41
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Could the Disneyland goon just take over if Un kicks the bucket? As for reunifcation, I thought the latest trend was that ROKs didn't really want it any more. And considering how the German one went (and really is still ongoing) I can't really blame them.
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Oct 5, 2014 20:21
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this is absolutely the best part of the Vice article:quote:Rumors abound about the cause of his absence, including a report from South Korea's Chosun Ilbo that he recently underwent surgery after fracturing both of his ankles "during a grueling tour of military bases and factories in Cuban heels."
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Oct 6, 2014 03:50
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Riptor posted:this is absolutely the best part of the Vice article: So his diabetes is so advanced they've cut off his feet? Sounds great.
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Oct 6, 2014 04:07
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This is all just viral marketing for that James Franco movie.
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Oct 6, 2014 04:07
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Do they have any potential successor to Kim Jong Un or is the military in charge from here out?
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Oct 6, 2014 05:14
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I think it was the Guardian or Reuters who pointed out his younger sister as possibly being "put in charge"  e: Didn't find the article I was thinking about, but this one is pretty much the same: http://thediplomat.com/2014/10/kim-jong-uns-sister-takes-control-in-north-korea/ NK Officials deny anything being wrong though: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/05/us-northkorea-kim-idUSKCN0HU00R20141005 Pimpmust fucked around with this message at 05:22 on Oct 6, 2014 |
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Oct 6, 2014 05:18
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Huh? What's this about now?
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Oct 6, 2014 05:26
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SlipUp posted:too bad clancys in the grave Offtopic, but Tom Clancy hadn't actually written anything himself for about eight years. "Tom Clancy" became a brand name, there's tons of books that says TOM CLANCY: DRAMATIC TITLE in huge block letters and says "Written/Co-written by John Smith" in tiny print at the bottom. Super right wing conspiracy nuts write all his stuff which is why it got so crazy even compared to his own work. In fact a new Tom Clancy book specifically about North Korean generals going nuts and launching ICBMs at Japan is available for pre-order as I write this. 
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Oct 6, 2014 05:27
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How embarassing must it be to be a career general or whatever and watch the child clown man in charge of your country gorge on imported cheese and laugh with Dennis Rodman? At least some of the guys who knew Kim Il Sung have to be getting sick of this poo poo.
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Oct 6, 2014 05:34
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Neo Rasa posted:Offtopic, but Tom Clancy hadn't actually written anything himself for about eight years. "Tom Clancy" became a brand name, there's tons of books that says TOM CLANCY: DRAMATIC TITLE in huge block letters and says "Written/Co-written by John Smith" in tiny print at the bottom. Super right wing conspiracy nuts write all his stuff which is why it got so crazy even compared to his own work. In fact a new Tom Clancy book specifically about North Korean generals going nuts and launching ICBMs at Japan is available for pre-order as I write this. Wait are you serious? e: Holy poo poo http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/tom-clancy-full-force-and-effect-mark-greaney/1119690302?ean=9780399173356 I want my loving royalties.
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Oct 6, 2014 05:45
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My money is on Kim3 is dead/gone. My hunch is solely base on how much this No.2 guy is smiling in almost every photo. This is not the smile of a worried man. There is only thing that can make him not worry about going home to report his trip. whatever7 fucked around with this message at 06:18 on Oct 6, 2014 |
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Oct 6, 2014 06:03
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BTW, half of these articles are referencing this website, New Focus International, is being ran by a NK defector. His book about his escape from NK is called "Dear Leader" published this year is a really good book. What make it so good is that the guy was an author/poet in NK, and he once a fairly high position officer in the propaganda field. His book gives a pretty good explanation of the inner working of the kingdom. His desperate adventure in China during his escape was very amazing and sad story too. It took him more than a month to get in touch with the SK spies in China. He met many ethnic Korean Chinese who helped him, and many who refused to help him. Many NK defectors who escaped to China actual were caught by the North Korean agents in China and sent them back to NK. I think China pressured NK to stop killing these defectors because it put China in a hard place internationally. After reading this book, you get an idea why China is so affair of the collapse which will bring major logistic and humanitarian problem to China. whatever7 fucked around with this message at 06:25 on Oct 6, 2014 |
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Oct 6, 2014 06:11
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Neo Rasa posted:Offtopic, but Tom Clancy hadn't actually written anything himself for about eight years. "Tom Clancy" became a brand name, there's tons of books that says TOM CLANCY: DRAMATIC TITLE in huge block letters and says "Written/Co-written by John Smith" in tiny print at the bottom. Super right wing conspiracy nuts write all his stuff which is why it got so crazy even compared to his own work. In fact a new Tom Clancy book specifically about North Korean generals going nuts and launching ICBMs at Japan is available for pre-order as I write this. It's not just about books. Ubisoft put Tom Clancy stamp in every military shooter they make. So yeah, Tom Clancy is a whore. A dead whore.
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Oct 6, 2014 06:22
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Well yeah Tom Clancy's _____ video games have been around regularly since 1998, but there's even been the Inception-like appearance of ghost written books based ON the military shooters! Like Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Pacific Whatever by Some Dude. Thousands of them.
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Oct 6, 2014 06:30
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So when to we get the sensationalized version of his absence? Did god lose his feet and needed to borrow Jong Un's?
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Oct 6, 2014 07:03
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Generally these things (despot/dictators) don't exist without very large support from a group of powerful people near the top, 2nd in line or behind the curtains kind of deal. If there was some sort of solo dictator who is super dicky to everyone including his immediate underlings (the guys who make the magic happen)- sooner not later two or more of these underlings start talking about how they are just one quick stab from them getting the first poke at the fresh prostitutes instead of distant seconds. So basically, just cause Young Space Asian Kim dictator is sick/listening to rap music/getting over acne or whatever doesn't mean it's happy time for north korea - there's a lot of people near the top who want to keep status quo, it's not just one guy and if only he wasn't there then some magic revolution would happen.
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Oct 6, 2014 07:23
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It seems obvious to me that the military pretty much actually runs the show, and that since Sung got sick they've just been figureheads for a junta.
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Oct 6, 2014 08:10
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They do need that figurehead on some level, though. Especially given the role of propaganda in NK. I don't know the precise dynamics here, but if a faction is well-positioned to take advantage of the absence of a Dear Leader, they will be quite happy to see him taken out of the equation in a manner which does not implicate them. If I had to take a stab at it, I would guess that without a common loyalty to Juche Made Flesh, the army devolves into factions loyal to specific generals rather than to a common leader. If Kim Jong-un has been used by one faction to offset the influence of one or more highly popular military leaders, then his removal may well turn the balance of power upside down. If the popular faction wanted reforms and was being held back by the faction using Kim, that would explain this development nicely. Hodgepodge fucked around with this message at 09:03 on Oct 6, 2014 |
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Oct 6, 2014 08:52
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mobby_6kl posted:As for reunifcation, I thought the latest trend was that ROKs didn't really want it any more. And considering how the German one went (and really is still ongoing) I can't really blame them. quote:Korean reunification would differ from the German reunification precedent. In relative terms, North Korea's economy is currently worse than that of East Germany in 1990. The income per capita ratio (PPP) was about 3:1 in Germany (US$25,000 for the West, about US$8,500 for the East).[33][34] The ratio is close to 18:1 in Korea (in 2011: US$31,700 for the South, US$1,800 for the North).[35] While at the moment of German reunification the East German population (around 17 million) was about a third of the West German (more than 60 million), the North Korean population (around 24.5 million) is currently around half of South Korea's (around 49 million). Holy hell, if I were in ROK's charge I would
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Oct 6, 2014 10:35
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Grim Up North posted:Holy hell, if I were in ROK's charge I would This is funny, because right now China's propping up North Korea pretty much solely because they don't want to deal with the refugee crisis of a collapse and are hoping someone else will take the problem off their hands. So long story short, the people of North Korea are utterly hosed now and forever.
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Oct 6, 2014 10:44
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I can only imagine that reunification would be a huge emotional issue, with families reunited and historical and religious sites opened to people in either country. Reform of the NK government would also achieve that, but as I understand it, the biggest problem would still be the flood of emigrants from the country to China and South Korea. I guess the question is partly how much South Koreans are willing to pay for unification. In a better world, I would suggest Marshal Plan levels of aid from America and the West, but good luck getting the Republicans to fund that through their little temper tantrum, and America would be the primary western beneficiary in foreign policy terms.
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Oct 6, 2014 12:36
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Yeah I can't really see reunification happening, at least not in the foreseeable future. It isn't politically or economically possible now, and the younger generations of South Koreans aren't particularly interested. Even if the regime collapsed and aid flowed in from all over the world, the massive differences between North Koreans and South Koreans would take decades to overcome.
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Oct 6, 2014 13:04
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Tariq Ali interviewed David Harvey for an hour, and they brought unification up, and how the US will never allow it, with technology from the north there is nothing stopping the south from acquiring and building up nuclear capabilities. If China and Korea have the bomb the US has no reason or excuse for holding Japan back, and if Japan gets the bomb, well you can guess what happens next.
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Oct 6, 2014 13:16
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Realistically? The same thing that happens between China, India, and Pakistan: everyone involved realizes that they don't hate each other as much as they love having a society rather than an uninhabitable wasteland. Like if Japan got nukes, they would be facing the annihilation of their entire culture and the reduction of the few remaining Japanese to a diaspora were they to use them.
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Oct 6, 2014 13:24
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DJ BK posted:Tariq Ali interviewed David Harvey for an hour, and they brought unification up, and how the US will never allow it, with technology from the north there is nothing stopping the south from acquiring and building up nuclear capabilities. If China and Korea have the bomb the US has no reason or excuse for holding Japan back, and if Japan gets the bomb, well you can guess what happens next. South Korea already has the complete technological capability for making nuclear weapons, it's politics and its alliance with the United States that is holding it back. The same could be said for Japan.
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Oct 6, 2014 13:30
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DJ BK posted:Tariq Ali interviewed David Harvey for an hour, and they brought unification up, and how the US will never allow it, with technology from the north there is nothing stopping the south from acquiring and building up nuclear capabilities. If China and Korea have the bomb the US has no reason or excuse for holding Japan back, and if Japan gets the bomb, well you can guess what happens next. Considering that Japan and South Korea are virtual nuclear weapon states and could design, build and test a nuclear weapon before the month is up what would happen next?
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Oct 6, 2014 13:46
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south korean generals salivate at the thought of getting what the north koreans have, and we can't let that happen because japan will bomb the u.s. if they are allowed to have it too or wait are you guys east asia policy wonks too?
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Oct 6, 2014 13:57
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Haven't there been instances of high ranking North Koreans not being seen for a while before, leading to speculation that they're dead or have been purged, and quite often it turns out that they're fine when they show up again a year or so later?
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Oct 6, 2014 14:05
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Hodgepodge posted:I can only imagine that reunification would be a huge emotional issue, with families reunited and historical and religious sites opened to people in either country. Reform of the NK government would also achieve that, but as I understand it, the biggest problem would still be the flood of emigrants from the country to China and South Korea. China will pay for it if the new Korea agree to stay militarily neutral and get rip of the US base. Money is not the problem. China can't support a new Korea if she turn around and bit China's hands (see Vietnam). China will need assurance that the new Korea will stay neutral in the East Asia geopolitcal space. Since nobody in South Korea, not even Emperor Xi's high school crash President Park can guarantee that, China will support a slow federalized reunification process. Actually China may push for "1 country 2 systems" in Korea now that I think about it.
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Oct 6, 2014 14:17
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whatever7 posted:China will pay for it if the new Korea agree to stay militarily neutral and get rip of the US base. Not even that, they said they're fine with current US bases just not any into NK territory.
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Oct 6, 2014 14:17
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karthun posted:Considering that Japan and South Korea are virtual nuclear weapon states and could design, build and test a nuclear weapon before the month is up what would happen next? Korea and Japan reach gentlemen's agreement that as long as you do not announce a bomb, I don't announce a bomb. Plus, Japan is an aging country with huge debt, soon Japan will have more retired population than working population. Japan is really not a military thread in near future.
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Oct 6, 2014 14:27
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computer parts posted:Not even that, they said they're fine with current US bases just not any into NK territory. See the
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Oct 6, 2014 14:32
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whatever7 posted:See the I don't think China wants it there but I don't think it'll be a barrier. Actually, it's quite likely that Korea wouldn't want bases anymore; even Japan is rumbling about getting rid of theirs and they're the most hated country in East Asia.
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Oct 6, 2014 14:35
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whatever7 posted:Korea and Japan reach gentlemen's agreement that as long as you do not announce a bomb, I don't announce a bomb. Until/unless they build war robots. Or stop being so stubborn about immigration. Both are probably equally unlikely.
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Oct 6, 2014 14:37
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