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Dilkington
Aug 6, 2010

"Al mio amore Dilkington, Gennaro"
About a month ago, CSIS had a big conference on Korean-unification:

https://csis.org/event/korean-unification-new-era

If you are primarily interested in security issues, maybe just watch panels C and D. A and B are really bullish projections of economic development.



Here's B.R. Myers from a few years ago, giving a lecture on his book The Cleanest Race. It's fascinating.

http://www.booktv.org/Program/11315/The+Cleanest+Race+How+North+Koreans+See+Themselves+And+Why+It+Matters.aspx

Dilkington fucked around with this message at 22:28 on Oct 10, 2014

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Dilkington
Aug 6, 2010

"Al mio amore Dilkington, Gennaro"

Mightypeon posted:

Oh my, the Soviets/Russian had/have better insults....

"That overblown hot air balloon which used to be a condom in a Petersburg gay club!"

A drawback of isolation is that you are so disconnect that you cant properly offend others.

The language of the KCNA article back in May was a bit more unequivocal:

http://kcna.co.jp/calendar/2014/05/05-02/2014-0502-020.html
http://freekorea.us/2014/05/07/really-north-korea-called-president-obama-a-wicked-black-monkey/

Dilkington
Aug 6, 2010

"Al mio amore Dilkington, Gennaro"

Chomskyan posted:

My guess would be further justifying the Obama Administration's military buildup in Asia.

Edit: And if the FBI is wrong, who says this will ever reach mainstream news in the US? This never made headline news for example, and it's much bigger than the Sony hack.

I don't think there is much onus for justification. Americans don't understand or care about the "pivot to Asia," and public opinion of North Korea was already in the basement.

The US allies most concerned about North Korea, ROK and Japan, have much better reasons to strengthen ties, and have already done so.

In terms of a military "build up," the pivot has been more like a "reshuffling" of existing and returning elements- with three notable exceptions: the basing of one MEU (at peak, 2,500 marines) in Darwin, Australia, a single army battalion (800 soldiers) to South Korea, and an agreement to eventually share a naval base with The Phillipines.

It's hardly a build up. US Pacific command maintains a force of approximately 330,000 American military and civillian personnel.

What was the size of America's presence in the Pacific in 1991? Approximately 330,000.

Dilkington fucked around with this message at 02:14 on Dec 30, 2014

Dilkington
Aug 6, 2010

"Al mio amore Dilkington, Gennaro"
He's the pictures and a link to the report:

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/kim-jong-uns-n-korea-prefers-mass-executions-by-anti-a-1701618395

http://hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/HRNKInsider_Greg_Joe_4_29_15.pdf

Jeffrey Lewis talked about it on his podcast- the pictures aren't conclusive, but a showy execution seems like a good explanation: why else would you put zpu-4s on a small arms range? Why would you construct a second temporary berm so close to the firing line, etc.

whatever7 posted:

Seriously, why do you work up that he was executed by a cannon? It's no different from executed by leathal injection.

Only one provides the cathartic thrill of seeing (hearing, smelling) roaring machines shred human bodies.

Dilkington fucked around with this message at 21:11 on May 13, 2015

Dilkington
Aug 6, 2010

"Al mio amore Dilkington, Gennaro"

Main Paineframe posted:

I dunno. When I look at that picture, all I see is a bunch of black boxes, a couple of lines, a yellow box, and a think-tank member explaining to me that THIS set of black boxes is THAT exact model of anti-aircraft gun and the yellow box is unidentified but he thinks it's probably people.

I desaturated the first and second image for the purpose of comparison:

ZPU-4, Vermont Military Museum:

ZPU-4, Jackson Barracks, Louisiana:

Satellite image of DPRK firing range:


Note the ratio of wheelbase length to width.

Dilkington
Aug 6, 2010

"Al mio amore Dilkington, Gennaro"

TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:

If it actually was a fusion bomb to begin with I'd guess the secondary didn't hit and they ended up with a 20-50kt fission bomb.

Probably a good guess.

5.1 on Richter scale from usgs.gov as of time of posting

E: whoops. MMS, not Richter scale

Dilkington fucked around with this message at 06:02 on Jan 6, 2016

Dilkington
Aug 6, 2010

"Al mio amore Dilkington, Gennaro"
mb=A+B log y

5.1=4.05+0.77 log y

I guessed for A and B off of what's used for Pakistan's test sites.

Not gonna get out my graphing calculator tonight. I'll see how close I am on yield tomorrow morning.


edit: the above is based on my misinterpretation of how yield calculation is done. Ignore

Dilkington fucked around with this message at 06:35 on Jan 6, 2016

Dilkington
Aug 6, 2010

"Al mio amore Dilkington, Gennaro"

Juffo-Wup posted:

Wolfram alpha says y = ~3.9, which would be less than half the yield of the 2013 (fission device) test, so I think you're a little low. Unless I'm misinterpreting your model.

My constants are wrong, and I myself probably don't understand the model...

I'm going off of this:
https://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/research/nuke/yield.html

if anyone else wants to have a go

edit: here's a good write up on how yield was calculated from seismic data after the 2013 DPRK test:

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/206288/making-yield-estimates/

Dilkington fucked around with this message at 06:33 on Jan 6, 2016

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Dilkington
Aug 6, 2010

"Al mio amore Dilkington, Gennaro"

WarpedNaba posted:

This isn't the first time we've had reports of death-by-Ack-Ack, wasn't there that purge in 2013?

Anyway, I kinda wondered if this would be one of those flak AA or the 8-gun AAs. Probably the latter, disappearing in a puff of smoke isn't visceral enough.

It looked like ZPU-4s last year:

http://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/HRNKInsider_Greg_Joe_4_29_15.pdf

I made a post about it:

http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3669823&pagenumber=16&perpage=40#post445294148

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