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Yeah I can't really see reunification happening, at least not in the foreseeable future. It isn't politically or economically possible now, and the younger generations of South Koreans aren't particularly interested. Even if the regime collapsed and aid flowed in from all over the world, the massive differences between North Koreans and South Koreans would take decades to overcome.
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Oct 6, 2014 13:04
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DJ BK posted:Tariq Ali interviewed David Harvey for an hour, and they brought unification up, and how the US will never allow it, with technology from the north there is nothing stopping the south from acquiring and building up nuclear capabilities. If China and Korea have the bomb the US has no reason or excuse for holding Japan back, and if Japan gets the bomb, well you can guess what happens next. South Korea already has the complete technological capability for making nuclear weapons, it's politics and its alliance with the United States that is holding it back. The same could be said for Japan.
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Oct 6, 2014 13:30
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My Imaginary GF posted:Issue: He has feet. QED: He's a robot.
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Oct 14, 2014 17:41
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Cerebral Bore posted:How? Are they going to start machinegunning masses of people trying to cross the Yalu river or what? Because that is what it would take, and that is also pretty drat bad PR. Build a fence, and arrest and deport anyone who crosses. Not exactly rocket science. Alternatively, in your dystopic future where North Korean immigrants are willing to cross rivers under machine-gun fire, build a minefield and mark it.
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May 13, 2015 20:10
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whatever7 posted:Not even Kurd hating Turkey border guards gun down refugees, don't be an idiot. Thanks for repeating what I just said smarty-pants 
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May 13, 2015 20:23
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Cerebral Bore posted:Arrest and deport like million desperate people fleeing for their lives? Yeah, that sure sounds feasible. Also China should build a minefield 1000 km long apparently. The US arrested and deported a third of a million immigrants last year, the vast majority halted while crossing the border. Europe as a whole deports at least that many (figures are hard to come by since each nation counts them differently). I don't know why you think that China wouldn't be able to do the same thing. Similarly, when a mine can cost as little as $3 and be machine-deployed (or even air-deployed), mines are a lot more likely than deploying machine-gunners along the 1400 km border to shoot down the Kaal fucked around with this message at 20:37 on May 13, 2015 |
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May 13, 2015 20:31
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Cerebral Bore posted:Because they'd be deporting them straight back into a warzone with an extremely porous border. What exactly would stop the refugees from trying again? Right? I mean who wouldn't want to spend some time in a Chinese prison awaiting deportation? Obviously they'll just swim right back across the rivers / cross the mountains on foot. Then they can build a human pyramid to climb over the barbed-wire fences, push their way through the tear gas and waiting troops, and force their way to freedom in China. If that doesn't work, try again tomorrow. China will be powerless to stop them! edit: Again, whatever7, I would like to let you know that this post contains sarcasm and should not be interpreted as supporting the idea that this is actually going to happen. North Koreans are people, not video-game characters, and aren't going to rush the barricades every afternoon. Kaal fucked around with this message at 20:48 on May 13, 2015 |
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May 13, 2015 20:38
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whatever7 posted:Are we even on the same page arguing the same poo poo? I don't know, I'm just pulling your chain for coming out swinging.
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May 13, 2015 20:50
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Cerebral Bore posted:We're talking about people from North Korea, man. And a hypothetical North Korea that has been bombed to poo poo at that. Chinese prison would probably be a significant step up in their quality of life. We're talking about people mate. I don't know about you, but few people are particularly interested in disregarding life and limb for the promise of indefinite imprisonment in a Chinese prison, regardless of their background. quote:The border is like 1400 km long and a lot of it is mountains and forests. The people sent back into a warzone to starve sure as poo poo would try their luck as many times at it takes. Also again, how are they going to stop them short of machinegunning people trying to swim the Yalu river? Again, in this impossible future where North Koreans by the millions were willing to shrug off bullets and shell, climb mountains and ford rivers, scale 15 foot fences topped with barbed wire, suffer all sorts of costs and indignities, etc., just for the chance of sitting in a Chinese border camp, the Chinese would simply build a minefield. There is no, repeat no, reason that China (or any large nation) would be forced to choose between opening their borders or machine-gunning civilians. Kaal fucked around with this message at 20:58 on May 13, 2015 |
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May 13, 2015 20:51
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nm posted:And how many make it and have spent decades here? Also, some huge percentage try and try again despite spending signifcant time in ICE jails. Enforcement is more effective than you might think. Ever since the US started getting serious about closing its borders and start building fences and conducting patrols, illegal immigration has flat-lined. The vast-majority of illegal immigrants in the United States are now long-term residents, whereas prior to enforcement approximately half of them had immigrated within the last five years. The US hasn't shown an active interest in patrolling its own streets and deporting established illegal immigrant families, but it has closed the border pretty effectively (without even particularly militarizing the border, or alarming its own population). China is already emulating the United States in building fences along their border with North Korea and creating a dedicated border force rather than simply using army units. In the event of some massive calamity that threatened to send millions of North Korean immigrants across their border and overwhelm their defenses, they'd probably just secure any vulnerable areas (like cities) and then set up border camps. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2014/09/03/as-growth-stalls-unauthorized-immigrant-population-becomes-more-settled/ 
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May 13, 2015 21:21
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nm posted:A big part of the slow downnis actually sagging economic prospects. Well the first statement is just an unsupported talking point, and not a strong one if I'm any judge. For one thing, the US economy in 2003 was booming and continued to be great for years. Obviously it wasn't the economy that was deterring immigrants. On the other hand, 2003 was the year that the Homeland Security Act took effect. You be the judge of what caused that massive downturn in illegal immigration in 2003. The 16% figure comes out to 1.8 million illegal immigrants over the last 5 years, as opposed to 2 million deportations over that same period. I don't know how you're defining "most", but certainly it seems like a majority. And those figures aren't including the immigrants who are caught by DHS officials but then allowed to immigrate legally, of which there are hundreds of thousands each year. This thread doesn't need much more derail about American immigration policy, but I think that it is clear that border enforcement is certainly possible for China, even if conducted in the expensive and relatively low-impact manner as done by the United States. If China really wanted to close its borders, it could. Kaal fucked around with this message at 21:56 on May 13, 2015 |
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May 13, 2015 21:39
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nm posted:What happened in 2003 is that undocumented people started staying in the US longer. Returns dropped, not new immigrants. If you read the article that chart is from entrys didn't decline or slow until about 2008. I don't think that you're reading that article correctly. Here's another Pew article, referenced in the article that I posted, that is more specific about the issue of Mexican border immigration in particular. In brief, 2003 marked the beginning of a massive inflection point in Mexican immigration into the United States. There was a year where there was a spike in activity (in terms of immigrants, attempts, arrest rates, prosecutions, etc.) and then a significant downturn as it became evident in the Mexican emigrant community that the US border had been significantly shuttered. That article also notes that annual Mexican immigration went from a high of .8 million in 2000, to only .14 million in 2010 - a trend that has continued over the last five years. Now I understand that there are ideological reasons to want to see the US border policy as a failure, so if you'd like then we could talk about border enforcement efficacy in other nations as well, but I just don't think that you're going to see markedly different statistics. Nation states are pretty good at patrolling their borders when they want to. There's examples all over the world, perhaps most notably in the Korean peninsula itself.  http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/04/23/net-migration-from-mexico-falls-to-zero-and-perhaps-less/
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May 13, 2015 23:24
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