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Greetings, and welcome to the thread. Someone scurrilously edited my original OP without asking me and made it look like I believed that Scottish nationalists were superior to English nationalists. I've got rid of that now. If you want a different op, make a new thread. What they left is a bit dated but I'll leave it here anyway because integrity. However, does Jim Murphy (47) have the boyish good looks, strong jaw and long, slim penis to get Labour back on track and save the Union?  Let's also talk about what a Scottish state broadcaster would look like. Breath Ray fucked around with this message at 11:58 on Jun 27, 2016 |
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Nov 1, 2014 20:10
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Don't be afraid to post - Pissflaps is offline.
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Nov 1, 2014 20:29
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so i made a post about the 2015 election using numbers out of my rear end in the d&d chat thread; what's the current expected gains in UK parliament for the SNP? vv that's actually about what i was imagining except holy gently caress those libdem numbers lol. that has to be a historic low i say swears online fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Nov 1, 2014 |
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Nov 1, 2014 20:31
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Aliquid posted:so i made a post about the 2015 election using numbers out of my rear end in the d&d chat thread; what's the current expected gains in UK parliament for the SNP? Polls currently suggest 40-50, personally I think that is a bit fantasyland at the moment. Their biggest parliamentary group was in the early 70s (I think..) when they had 11 MPs so anything higher than that could be considered a success. A believable figure would possibly between 20 and 25 MPs, anything higher than 30 would be fairly earth shattering and unlikely due to FPTP being so lovely, but we live in interesting times so who can say really.* *numbers also out of arse [edit] Andrew Tickell has a fairly sober blog post about expectations. http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/ca-canny.html keep punching joe fucked around with this message at 20:41 on Nov 1, 2014 |
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Nov 1, 2014 20:37
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I heard somewhere Lord Ashcroft is meant to have a more constituency focused poll out in the next few weeks. I imagine that will be interesting reading. Electoral Calculus is predicting 23, but their polling only goes up to 24th September and a lot of people have slagged that for focusing on more nationwide trends (e.g. UKIP predicted to do well in areas where they didn't even stand a candidate last time) http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html Plus the fact they kick off by calling Scotland a region suggests they don't really have a clue about much. Also, I never knew how to spell "ca'canny" before reading that blog. The perils of having a national language that is rarely represented in print.
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Nov 1, 2014 20:48
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Here's the poll in an image, Labour are in for a kicking if it holds: Labour look set to keep seats areas that voted strongest Yes, interestingly enough. Note that the lib dems lose all their seats barring Orkney & Shetland (they have strange ways up there), as well as the Tories losing the random seat they get when Scotland gets pissed at labour. Jim Murphy continues his march to the sea: "The Huffington Post posted:"I'm not interested in left-wing Labour or right-wing Labour, or old Labour or new Labour. I'm interested in losing Labour." "I am a mercenary who will promise anything to get votes. Tell me why people don't like Labour anymore."
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Nov 1, 2014 20:56
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Interested in losing Labour? What a strange thing to say
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Nov 1, 2014 21:02
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Burqa King posted:Interested in losing Labour? What a strange thing to say It's what a robot would spit out if it was trying to alliterate sincerity. Maybe he is really an SNP sleeper agent and is truly interested in losing Labour.
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Nov 1, 2014 21:04
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I mean why wouldn't he say winning labour?
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Nov 1, 2014 21:05
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What would happen if Jim Murphy became the Scottish Labour leader, but lost his seat at the GE, could Labour have an unelected (by the public) leader? Would he have to resign?
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Nov 1, 2014 21:05
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keep punching joe posted:What would happen if Jim Murphy became the Scottish Labour leader, but lost his seat at the GE, could Labour have an unelected (by the public) leader? Would he have to resign? I suppose they could just shrug and alter their self-imposed rules, but right now they say that the leader has to be a representative of some sort, so if he lost then he'd need to go.
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Nov 1, 2014 21:07
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keep punching joe posted:What would happen if Jim Murphy became the Scottish Labour leader, but lost his seat at the GE, could Labour have an unelected (by the public) leader? Would he have to resign? This assumes he doesn't already plan to contest a Holyrood seat before then somehow.
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Nov 1, 2014 21:53
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There's talk of getting someone in a safe Labour Holyrood seat to stand down in order to force a byelection, but anyone doing that would lose some big bonus or another. I don't know who they'd be likely to get who'd be up for standing down either. I am not so familiar with a lot of the Labour people in the west, but nobody obvious is leaping to mind who would fall on their sword for him/be retiring anyway.
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Nov 1, 2014 22:10
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It's also a massive risk, given the swingy nature of the political climate. It would have to be bloody safe to avoid the SNP or the Greens running a shock grassroots campaign there. The safest bet is winding up on the labour list in the next Holyrood campaign, but that means he can't attend First Minister's questions for the first 18 months of his tenure.
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Nov 1, 2014 22:25
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Murderion posted:It's also a massive risk, given the swingy nature of the political climate. It would have to be bloody safe to avoid the SNP or the Greens running a shock grassroots campaign there. The safest bet is winding up on the labour list in the next Holyrood campaign, but that means he can't attend First Minister's questions for the first 18 months of his tenure. The problem for Labour is a constituency that safe doesn't exist anymore. Their largest win in 2011 was Coatbridge & Chryston where they won with a majority of 11.77% (2741) over the SNP on a turnout of 45%. Then the next highest is Glasgow Provan with 10.84%, then Renfrewshire South (9.58%). There is nowhere for him to stand where he can be sure of a win, even if he can get an MSP to forgo their pension by resigning. twoot fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Nov 1, 2014 |
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Nov 1, 2014 22:47
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Unison are backing Neil Findlay - sorry let me rephrase that - Unison are refusing to back Jim Murphyquote:While he is the firm favourite of the bookies, Murphy suffered a setback within minutes of delivering his speech yesterday when Scotland’s biggest union, Unison, came out in favour of the leftwing Findlay, and the second biggest, Unite, said Murphy had to do far more to win its endorsement. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/01/scottish-labour-unions-jim-murphy-neil-findlay
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Nov 1, 2014 22:55
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Yeah; based on recent evidence you can't really say that there's a safe Labour seat anywhere in Scotland. The SNP are polling very highly, and have a knack of embarrassing Labour in seats that appear quite safe (Glasgow East a few years ago; the two Govan by-elections - hell, you can go right back to Winnie Ewing in Hamilton) and they'd try really quite hard to defeat the Scottish Labour leader to force another leadership election right before the 2016 Scottish election. I see him doing what Salmond did after he got elected in 2004 and stay outside Holyrood until 2016; stand in Eastwood (which is probably one of the better places because of the fact that the the SNP still finished third in 2011, and its one of the few Labour/Tory fights in 2011) while also being top of the West of Scotland list just to make 100% sure that he gets elected. Labour aren't going to let themselves be embarrassed by the nature of MMP again...
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Nov 1, 2014 22:58
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Salmond must be ecstatic he resigned when he did.
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Nov 1, 2014 23:13
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Murderion posted:Note that the lib dems lose all their seats barring Orkney & Shetland (they have strange ways up there) Can someone explain why the Islands have retained a Lib Dem stronghold status for so long? Is it due to the likes of Tradition (I.E. I vote labour all my life) or is it just that the Lib Dems do things on the islands that they appreciate? Then again, I assume that the Scottish Parliament Election may turn towards a Independent or SNP as a possiblity?
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Nov 1, 2014 23:53
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Orkney came close to going for the SNP in the Holyrood elections, but there were Independents on the ballot who seemed to split the vote. I think it's just something of a different political landscape. Different issues are more relevant in rural and island communities, plus you have the (self-perpetuating) issue of the big Westminster parties being quite small there and often those in smaller rural communities like to vote for someone local. (The SNP ran two council candidates in my old ward - one incumbent and one new. The new guy got in and the incumbent didn't, because the new guy was more of a "well-kent face" locally). I'd be delighted if the Lib Dems lost their hold on the north, they do sod all for their constituencies from all I've seen.
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Nov 2, 2014 00:36
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Fear not unionists, slim Jim Murphy knows what Scots want! And the answer is... more of the same   If the independence campaign taught us anything, it's that people love it when Labour's in "wishy-washy centrists" mode. There's barely a midge's chance in hell of it happening, but I really hope Neil Findlay gets chosen as leader because Jim Murphy is shaping up to be Iain Gray Mk.2 even if he said some bad words to Salmond once.
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Nov 2, 2014 00:43
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OH GOD, that face is Farage levels of creepy!
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Nov 2, 2014 00:48
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Within certain segments of the party, he is known as Skeletor.
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Nov 2, 2014 00:55
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And thanks to whoever it was in UKMT who posted that quote about his cock, every time I see or hear him now all I can think is "meaty foreskin, meaty foreskin, meaty foreskin, ..."
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Nov 2, 2014 01:02
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Acaila posted:Within certain segments of the party, he is known as Skeletor. He's actually The Smiler.
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Nov 2, 2014 01:04
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I think he's pretty good-looking for a politician, to say nothing of being Scottish
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Nov 2, 2014 01:07
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Should people ever again complain about my contribution to this thread it's reassuring to know I can study the last few posts to understand the level of debate and discussion other contributors expect.
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Nov 2, 2014 01:07
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Every politician is the Smiler according to Something Awful.Pissflaps posted:Should people ever again complain about my contribution to this thread it's reassuring to know I can study the last few posts to understand the level of debate and discussion other contributors expect. Oh gently caress off you boring tit.
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Nov 2, 2014 01:08
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Skeleton face meaty cock mother fucker who does he think he is?
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Nov 2, 2014 01:11
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SO why does Scotland tend to the left in politics? Is it because they don't have a lot of immigration compared to England do you think?
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Nov 2, 2014 01:20
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I don't know about you folks, but I find discussions about Jim Murphy's meaty foreskin to be significantly preferable to your average Pissflaps ScotPol post. 
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Nov 2, 2014 01:20
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Burqa King posted:SO why does Scotland tend to the left in politics? Is it because they don't have a lot of immigration compared to England do you think? Thatcher.
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Nov 2, 2014 01:22
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Acaila posted:I don't know about you folks, but I find discussions about Jim Murphy's meaty foreskin to be significantly preferable to your average Pissflaps ScotPol post. That doesn't surprise me at all.
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Nov 2, 2014 01:24
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She was a bit before my time. What made her especially disliked in Scotland?
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Nov 2, 2014 01:24
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Burqa King posted:She was a bit before my time. What made her especially disliked in Scotland? Same thing that made the tories hated in the working class areas of England.
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Nov 2, 2014 01:25
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Burqa King posted:SO why does Scotland tend to the left in politics? Is it because they don't have a lot of immigration compared to England do you think? This is actually an interesting question. I'm not really sure where the real reason lies. I wonder about historical things like the Red Clydeside and such, but I'm sure other parts of the UK have their own proud left traditions too. You've got little historical quirks, like the whole idea that the monarch is the Queen/King of Scots, not Scotland i.e. they rule at the will of the people, not by some divine right over the land. But how much cultural impact something like that has is debatable. You could maybe look at the swift industrialisation brought on by things like the Highland Clearances, but eh...still not sure. I don't think it's immigration related though. There's far more to the left/right divide than immigration, and I feel that Scots have embraced opportunities for fusion culture. Scots seem to have a more internationalist outlook, which probably is aided by not buying in to British nationalism to the same extent as our southern neighbours. Though even if we did give the world James Keir Hardie, the Tories were still getting voted in in Scotland til only a few decades ago though. Thatcher seems to have been the real nail in the coffin for them. In more modern terms, the BBC did quite a good wee documentary after the last General Election called Why Didn't The Scots Vote Tory. I think it's on youtube these days. EDIT: Oh man, Thatcher in Scotland. Well, British nationalism, using us as poll tax guinea pigs and destroying the main industries of Scotland do tend to sour you on someone real quick.
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Nov 2, 2014 01:29
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Burqa King posted:She was a bit before my time. What made her especially disliked in Scotland? Here's a quick summary
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Nov 2, 2014 01:33
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Acaila posted:This is actually an interesting question. I'm not really sure where the real reason lies. I wonder about historical things like the Red Clydeside and such, but I'm sure other parts of the UK have their own proud left traditions too. Thank you very much, that video was a real eye-opener.
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Nov 2, 2014 01:37
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Scots, when polled on policies, aren't actually more left wing, they just tend to vote for more left wing parties. This is due to all the factors mentioned here - a strong history of union support, being the founding area of Labour, red Clydeside et al. Thatcher's testing of the poll tax here made killed any Tory revival up here stone dead (and Ed Milliband's support of Thatcher looks to be sending Labour the same way). The Scottish right do exist, they're just spread out among traditionally left wing areas. Their grassroots are also political poison, consisting as they do of the Orange Order and Rangers Ultras. Anti-migrant sentiment is tied up with anti-Irish Catholic sentiment, which is exactly as stupid as it sounds.
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Nov 2, 2014 06:05
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Burqa King posted:SO why does Scotland tend to the left in politics? Is it because they don't have a lot of immigration compared to England do you think? I don't think Scotland is overwhelmingly 'left' though there are regions where left politics are dominant. I think it's more just a general distrust of Tories, which stretches back for centuries.
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Nov 2, 2014 10:48
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