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Taffer
Oct 15, 2010


HappyHippo posted:

Who designs it? Who builds it? Who maintains it? Who repairs it when it breaks? Who drives the trucks to bring the raw materials in, and the products out? Who mines the raw materials? Who designs the chips? Who upgrades it when the next product is rolled out and the process changes?

Don't handwave this all away with "computers." You've basically shown that one part of the production process can be automated, which is something that's been happening for a few centuries anyway. The only difference is the scale. Computers aren't magic, and we aren't nearly as close to eliminating the labour in manufacturing as you think. And of course manufacturing has been a decreasing part of the labour force anyway. Agriculture was once the primary form of human labour, now in many countries it's something like 2%.


Missed this part. This is the usual hyperbole I get when I ask people to back up this idea, and as usual most of it is based on a science fiction understanding of technological progress. You're discounting the cost of robotics and extrapolating far too much from your example. Advances in computing power may have been exponential over the last few decades (although there are signs that that is slowing down) but not all technology follows that curve: advances in robotics have been much less impressive. We're nowhere close to having a fully automated mine.

I don't think you quite realize just how far automation has come in the last couple decades. There are already the beginnings of software that can design computer chips without human intervention, driverless cars are already here, fully automated shipping warehouses are already here, human-free manufacturing has been here for a while and is getting more robust by the day.

There is no handwaving going on here. These technologies already exist and are starting to be implemented on a larger scale. There is no "if" about driverless cars or automated manufacturing or the myriad other automation technologies that will replace human labor, just a "when", and that "when" is knocking down the door.

You seem to fixate on manufacturing, saying "of course" it will go down, but it'll be fine because agriculture did too and people still have jobs. But it's not just manufacturing. It's everything. All forms of transportation are on the verge of being turned robotic, clerical work, accounting, legal work, medical work, even engineering work - are in the process of being replaced by computers right now. And I'm not just talking about productivity increases like Autocad or Excel making people work faster. I'm talking about replacement. As in, people not required.

You could take this further and say that we'll still need software developers and engineers to design these systems - and you'd be absolutely right, we will need those people (though to an extent they too will be replaced by their own systems. Oh the irony), but the automation they create will replace more people than are required to design it, because this is a symptom of capitalism and its goal is to increase efficiency, so if it didn't save money it wouldn't be done.


Computers aren't magic, but this is nothing like the industrial revolution, which brought machines to increase the productivity of labor. This isn't just replacing people doing physical labor, it's replacing people required to do thinking too.


If you would like to see an easily digestible overview of how this all is happening and how it is nothing like the slow but steady plodding of machine automation pre-computer, check this video. (It's likely you've seen it, it's a popular video. But it explains the realities of the situation far better than I do)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

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Taffer
Oct 15, 2010


RichardGamingo posted:

From the point of Basic Income, the only hope is that a combination of culture and technical inheritances prevent the civilization from becoming completely inert and collapsing on itself. Its pretty well established that people around the world receiving basic income do not get up and become inventive nor productive members of society. Basic Income increases the sloth factor and America, as this possible future, society is in big trouble if there's not a culture that somehow drives people who are complacent and ignorant to take action rather than let their time pass away uselessly.

Nothing about basic income is well established, but the trials of it that have been done are exactly opposite of what you say. People who receive basic income become more inventive and productive members of society.

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