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Wish I could embed the top 4 or 6 of these in the poll and re-do the vote that way. Pittsburgh's result is reflected in the OP now, and the 3rd post has updated SoS and SoV values. Gonna be taking some long train rides tomorrow, so I'll start some "every scenario" breakdowns for the simpler divisions (so definitely not the AFCN, AFCW, or NFCS).
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Nov 19, 2014 18:11
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Welcome to hell. The Cardinals miss the playoffs at 10-6 again. And this time every single team in the NFC West is 10-6.
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Nov 19, 2014 18:17
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I can get 21 teams to finish 8-8 (includes the Bengals). I feel like I could get another one, maybe two, but at that point it's tough figuring the chain of results you need.
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Nov 19, 2014 19:23
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Was just trying to get the rams into the first seed, came out pretty hilarious.
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Nov 19, 2014 22:32
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DariusLikewise posted:Was just trying to get the rams into the first seed, came out pretty hilarious. Has there ever been a team with two ties in one season?
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Nov 19, 2014 22:34
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I was able to successfully create a scenario where: If the Lions beat the Packers they secure the #1 seed. If they lose to the Packers, they're out of the playoffs.
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Nov 19, 2014 22:47
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Brannock posted:I was able to successfully create a scenario where: If the Lions beat the Packers they secure the #1 seed. If they lose to the Packers, they're out of the playoffs. What's it look like?
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Nov 19, 2014 23:00
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axeil posted:What's it look like? I was actually able to create multiple scenarios with that same result: Lions win in Green Bay, they take #1, lose in Green Bay, they're out of the playoffs entirely. It mostly relies on the Cardinals taking several losses and the NFC West sending Seattle and San Francisco to the playoffs -- and of course the GB game being for the division crown. I think I could get several scenarios working where instead of 3 from the West, you have 2 from the West and 2 from the East. I was able to get it working for mostly 9-7 records in the NFC playoffs, 10-6, 11-5. Apparently the Lions are at a serious disadvantage for many wild-card tiebreakers.
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Nov 19, 2014 23:03
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Blotto Skorzany posted:Has there ever been a team with two ties in one season?
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Nov 19, 2014 23:06
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I'm touched that so many (more than 0) of you have made the Browns the #1 seed.
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Nov 19, 2014 23:08
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axeil posted:What's it look like? Probably something close to Lions and Bears ending up 10-6 along with every other team. Lions lose to Patriots and win against the other teams. going into the Packer game. If they win, then they are 11-5 while every other top team is 10-6, if they lose they are 10-6 and through tie breakers lose out. As the Bears winning out causes them to only have 3 losses to NFC Teams(Packers x2, Panthers) and the Lions would have 4(Panthers, Bears x2, Packers). This is me doing it to get the Bears in, but I'm sure you could do it with other teams as well.
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Nov 19, 2014 23:12
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Don't forget that for wild card ties you first resolve divisional tiebreakers (H2H, then Common Opponents, then Conference) to only have one team per division, then you compare teams between divisions. Since the schedule is so back-heavy with divisional games, a collapsing team will very likely have a bad divisional record, and a surging team a good one. So in a multi-way tie for a wild card which includes 2+ teams from the same division, a poor divisional record could eliminate you from coming close. This makes scenarios like the Detroit one feasible in a number of ways. If you remember last season's AFC madness on Week 17, most of it was due to Bal & Pit and Mia & NYJ potentially tying in overall record. If this year's tight race continues, you could see an even more complicated scenario chart come to be.
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Nov 19, 2014 23:22
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Packers are in pretty good shape and should be able to snag a playoff spot. A first round bye would be nice, but Rodgers gets rusty with time off it seems. Keep that machine purring.
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Nov 19, 2014 23:23
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Leon Einstein posted:A first round bye would be nice, but Rodgers gets rusty with time off it seems. Keep that machine purring. I don't know whether it's reasonable to say that. He definitely had some rust coming off a half-season injury last year, and didn't play his best in that game against the Giants after sitting Week 17 of the 2011 season. On the other hand, he looked Rather Good against the Bears after a bye week this year.
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Nov 19, 2014 23:28
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Hockles posted:I'm touched that so many (more than 0) of you have made the Browns the #1 seed. Yea but that's not how the AFC:N rolls. You guys are going to sneak in with a WC and have a magical bullshit run to join the club. 
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Nov 19, 2014 23:36
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 Pack it in Obamailures, this is how the season ends. The only leap of faith I made was that the Rams finish the job re: Rivers.
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Nov 20, 2014 01:58
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Eifert Posting posted:
So you're picking the Texans for the AFC CG I see. e: crap they re-seed between rounds don't they? Never mind.
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Nov 20, 2014 01:59
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I'll admit that there's no reason to outright prefer a tie to a loss by the Bengals if you're the Ravens, but I think it's arguable that the tie in that scenario is just about equal to a loss. In a head-to-head situation the tie can't possibly save them from the Ravens but can only hurt them. However the Ravens will likely not be in the division race at the end of the season so it's moot. I predict the Steelers will win the division by a couple games.
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Nov 20, 2014 02:20
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Eifert Posting posted:
I like this world where we don't even play seattle week 16 and go into the playoffs 14-1
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Nov 20, 2014 02:41
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Shut up. I meant 15-1. The Texans and Chiefs are the worst possible match-ups in the AFC for the Bengals, presuming people get and stay healthy. I'm hoping they somehow get a team that can't effectively run the ball. I'd feel waaaaay better somehow playing the Broncos at home in a playoff game. Kawalimus posted:However the Ravens will likely not be in the division race at the end of the season so it's moot. I predict the Steelers will win the division by a couple games. The Steelers have as much chance of losing out as winning out in the remainder. Their Achilles heel has been an effective pass rush and good receivers. They play three teams with good receivers (ATL, CIN, NO) and one team with an extremely effective pass rush (KAN). Also gently caress the Steelers. I see them losing to the Saints and getting swept by the Bengals. Eifert Posting fucked around with this message at 02:48 on Nov 20, 2014 |
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Nov 20, 2014 02:44
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I was thinking "wow, i can't remember the last time a team was eliminated before the playoff machine even went up," and thought I was probably just forgetting some bad team. And then I read the Raiders Wikipedia page for this season... Wikipedia posted:The Raiders were officially eliminated from the playoffs after their Week 11 loss to the Chargers, therefore becoming the earliest team since the 2004 Dolphins to be cut from postseason play.[4]  It's more a testament to the strength of the AFC this year if even the 2008 Lions stayed in contention longer (though I can't imagine more than a week longer). YMB fucked around with this message at 03:15 on Nov 20, 2014 |
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Nov 20, 2014 03:07
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Kawalimus posted:I'll admit that there's no reason to outright prefer a tie to a loss by the Bengals if you're the Ravens, but I think it's arguable that the tie in that scenario is just about equal to a loss. In a head-to-head situation the tie can't possibly save them from the Ravens but can only hurt them. Disclaimer: Didn't really review it so there might be a small mistake which wrecks the whole thing, but the concept is what matters. OK, I will now provide one of the very few situations where Kawalimus could be retroactively redeemed for appreciating the tie. And it also happens to be where the Browns REALLY hate that tie and just want to die. pre:Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Divisional Results --- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------------------- Cin 06*3 2-1 4*1 4-3 Lcle Wn.o @Hou @T.B vPit @Cle vDen @Pit Bal-WW Cle-L? Pit-?? Pit 07-4 2-2 5-1 6-3 Lnyj Wten .bye vN.O @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin Bal-WL Cin-?? Cle-WL Bal 06-4 2-3 4-1 3-4 Wten .bye @N.O vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou vCle Cin-LL Cle-W? Pit-WL Cle 06-4 2-2 3-2 4-4 Wcin Lhou @Atl @Buf vInd vCin @Car @Bal Bal-L? Cin-W? Pit-WL pre:Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Divisional Results --- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------------------- Pit 07-4 2-2 5-1 6-3 Lnyj Wten .bye vN.O @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin Bal-WL Cin-?? Cle-WL Cin 06-4 2-1 4-2 4-3 Lcle Wn.o @Hou @T.B vPit @Cle vDen @Pit Bal-WW Cle-L? Pit-?? Bal 06-4 2-3 4-1 3-4 Wten .bye @N.O vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou vCle Cin-LL Cle-W? Pit-WL Cle 06-4 2-2 3-2 4-4 Wcin Lhou @Atl @Buf vInd vCin @Car @Bal Bal-L? Cin-W? Pit-WL pre:Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Divisional Results --- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------------------- Bal 07-4 3-3 4-1 4-4 Wten .bye @N.O vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou Wcle Cin-LL Cle-WW Pit-WL Pit 08-5 3-3 5-1 7-4 Lnyj Wten .bye vN.O Lcin @Atl vK.C Wcin Bal-WL Cin-WL Cle-WL Cle 07-5 3-3 3-2 5-5 Wcin Lhou @Atl @Buf vInd Wcin @Car Lbal Bal-LL Cin-WW Pit-WL Cin 07-6 3-3 4-2 5-5 Lcle Wn.o @Hou @T.B Wpit Lcle vDen Lpit Bal-WW Cle-LL Pit-WL pre:Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Divisional Results --- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------------------- Cle 10-6 3-3 6-2 6-6 Wcin Lhou Watl Lbuf Wind Wcin Wcar Lbal Bal-LL Cin-WW Pit-WL Cin 10-6 3-3 6-2 7-5 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b Wpit Lcle Wden Lpit Bal-WW Cle-LL Pit-WL Pit 10-6 3-3 6-2 8-4 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o Lcin Watl WK.C Wcin Bal-WL Cin-WL Cle-WL Bal 10-6 3-3 5-3 7-5 Wten .bye Ln.o Ws.d Wmia Wjax Lhou Wcle Cin-LL Cle-WW Pit-WL Who is 1st in the AFCN, guaranteed playoff spot: 1) H2H amongst the 4 teams (Still tied, all 3-3) 2) Division record (Still tied, all 3-3) 3) C.O record (Pit & Cin & Cle 6-2, Bal 5-3, Pit & Cin & Cle move on) ~restart the tie-breaker process with 3 remaining teams~ 4) H2H amongst the 3 teams (Cle 3-1, Pit 2-2, Cin 1-3, Browns win AFCN) Who is 2nd in the AFCN, potential Wild Card: 5) H2H amongst the 3 teams (Cin 3-1, Pit 2-2, Bal 1-3, Bengals are 2nd) Who is 3rd in the AFCN, potential Wild Card: 6) H2H amongst the 2 teams (Tied, 1-1) 7) Division record (Tied, 3-3) 8) C.O record (Pit 6-2, Bal 5-3, Steelers are 3rd) Who is 4th in the AFCN, drafting around 20th overall: 9) (Ravens are 4th) And if instead of that 4-way tie, all of these future results occur in our reality? pre:Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Divisional Results --- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------------------- Cin 10*5 3-3 6*1 7-5 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b Wpit Lcle Wden Lpit Bal-WW Cle-LL Pit-WL Bal 10-6 3-3 5-3 7-5 Wten .bye Ln.o Ws.d Wmia Wjax Lhou Wcle Cin-LL Cle-WW Pit-WL Pit 10-6 3-3 6-2 8-4 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o Lcin Watl WK.C Wcin Bal-WL Cin-WL Cle-WL Cle 10-6 3-3 6-2 6-6 Wcin Lhou Watl Lbuf Wind Wcin Wcar Lbal Bal-LL Cin-WW Pit-WL 1) H2H amongst the 3 teams (Bal 3-1, Pit 2-2, Cle 1-3, Ravens are 2nd) Who is 3rd in the AFCN, potential Wild Card: 2) H2H amongst the 2 teams (Tied, 1-1) 3) Division record (Tied, 3-3) 4) C.O record (Tied, 6-2) 5) Conference record (Pit 8-4, Cle 6-6, Steelers are 3rd) Who is 4th in the AFCN, drafting around 20th overall: 6) (Browns are 4th)
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Nov 20, 2014 03:14
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Assuming the above isn't fatally flawed logic: In exchange for validating you (in a 1 in a some-massive-number long-shot) Kawalimus, I hereby politely request that for an entire week after the Ravens' next win you will post with a positive attitude regarding the Ravens' postseason hopes. If the Ravens lose until they are eliminated from the playoffs, well, there's always cool birds to find.
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Nov 20, 2014 03:18
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kalensc posted:Assuming the above isn't fatally flawed logic: Wow. Well if the Ravens somehow win next monday I will be pretty positive about our chances. But I expect us to be blown out. We are going to need to win at least one road game to get to 10-6, keeping in mind this is the worst road team compared to its home record in the NFL IIRC. Our road games left are New Orleans, Houston, and Miami. Getting that one out of the way will make it extremely likely we at least get to a 10-6 record which usually gets you in the playoffs. So what I'll tell you is after our next road win without a home loss taking place before it I will show positivity. edit: They think the Snowy Owls might be back this year!! I had bad luck with them last year only got one. But who knows if it will be at the same levels as last year.
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Nov 20, 2014 03:57
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Kawalimus posted:Wow. You're losing in two weeks btw
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Nov 20, 2014 04:00
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ROSS MY SALAD posted:You're losing in two weeks btw It's possible. But remember the Ravens play much better at home. I've always had the SD game as a toss-up. It's exciting though because SD never ever plays here.
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Nov 20, 2014 04:10
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Of all the possible wild card teams I am least optimistic/worried with the Chargers. Rivers is banged up and he gets to play... The Rams. Dude is going to look like a human schnitzel.
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Nov 20, 2014 04:14
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Eifert Posting posted:Of all the possible wild card teams I am least optimistic/worried with the Chargers. Rivers is banged up and he gets to play... The Rams. Haven't the Rams had a horrible time getting to the QB this year or am I a few weeks too late
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Nov 20, 2014 06:38
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I don't know the exact stats but they had like 5 sacks in the first 8 games and 18 in the last 3 or something crazy like that.
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Nov 20, 2014 06:40
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Eifert Posting posted:Shut up. I meant 15-1. That was more of a knock at the playoff machine  . I couldn't make it not w l or tie a game.
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Nov 20, 2014 06:54
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Rams, Redskins, Bucs, and Vikings all in the playoffs 
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Nov 20, 2014 07:50
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Hah, wow, the Jaguars could win the AFCS if everyone else lost out and they won out.
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Nov 20, 2014 07:53
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JesusSinfulHands posted:Rams, Redskins, Bucs, and Vikings all in the playoffs If the Bengals lost to the Titans in the playoffs I would strongly consider suicide.
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Nov 20, 2014 10:34
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What is the fewest number of games Cleveland must win to lock ]p a wild card spot?
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Nov 20, 2014 12:35
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Bigass Moth posted:What is the fewest number of games Cleveland must win to lock ]p a wild card spot? Without running the numbers or playoff machine, I think 5-1 is the minimum to ensure a spot. Even then there might be a way to gimmick tie-breakers (see earlier post) to keep an 11-5 team out a la New England in' 08. Of course I'd other teams stumble 8-8 could make it in as well, but that's just as unlikely as 12-4 being the bar to clear. I'll try a complete Cleveland analysis after this weekend, once every team has had their bye and have the same number of remaininf games it becomes easier to generate scenario groups. kalensc fucked around with this message at 13:34 on Nov 20, 2014 |
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Nov 20, 2014 13:32
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Right now with so many teams at 6-4 (or somewhere around that) it's almost impossible to gauge the AFC. There are literally hundreds of possibilities just because there are so many contenders and only six spots. I mean, it may take a miracle to keep the Patriots out, but the Texans are only one game back of the Colts, the AFC West is only one game apart between three teams, and the AFC North is a complete goddamn clusterfuck.
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Nov 22, 2014 03:32
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If they really wanted to make things interesting by mucking around with playoff seeds, like they seem determined to, It'd be cool to have the 6 seeds be floating seeds. So let's say the NFC has a 10-6 and a 9-7, but the AFC has 3 10-6 teams. In that situation the lowest AFC 10-6 team plays in the NFC. That way if, say, the NFC is stacked (like last year) a NFC team could possibly win the AFC championship. Imagine the 2013 Cardinals playing the Seahawks for a title or a -god forbid- Ravens vs Steelers game for all the marbles.
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Nov 22, 2014 03:46
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Eifert Posting posted:If they really wanted to make things interesting by mucking around with playoff seeds, like they seem determined to, It'd be cool to have the 6 seeds be floating seeds. So let's say the NFC has a 10-6 and a 9-7, but the AFC has 3 10-6 teams. In that situation the lowest AFC 10-6 team plays in the NFC. That would be cool but completely defeats the purpose of having the conference champions duke it out in the Super Bowl.
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Nov 22, 2014 04:22
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If the 7th seeded team from one conference runs the table against the 3 seed, the 1 seed and the 2/4/5 seed then maybe the other conference shouldn't be lovely.  I just don't want more total seeds. If we're going nuts how about having the #5 seed claim the home field advantage if they have a two game lead on the division winner #4 seed. So if, let's say, the Lions finish the season as the #5 seed with a 9-7 record and the Falcons are the #4 seed with a 7-9 the Lions get to host.
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Nov 22, 2014 04:37
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Eifert Posting posted:If the 7th seeded team from one conference runs the table against the 3 seed, the 1 seed and the 2/4/5 seed then maybe the other conference shouldn't be lovely. You know what, gently caress that. I know it sounds dumb but I still want winning the division to mean something. I don't care how you get in. Yeah, we made a lot of fun of the 7-9 seahawks and the 8-7-1 Packers but that's a part of the game. If you want a playoff spot, win your division. poo poo, I even joked last year about how the 10-6 Cardinals deserved a playoff spot more than the Packers did, but I really don't want a division title to lose meaning. Even if the miracle scenario happens and the 5-10-1 Panthers win the NFC South, I want them to have a home game in the playoffs.
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Nov 22, 2014 04:55
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