2016 U.S. Downballot: THEY ARE THE LAW

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > 2016 U.S. Downballot: THEY ARE THE LAW

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Shinjobi: Jul 10, 2008; Gravy Boat 2k

Bayh

# ? Oct 21, 2016 21:11

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# ? May 13, 2024 22:47

Slate Action: Feb 13, 2012; by exmarx

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/789582122243743744

# ? Oct 21, 2016 22:42

whydirt: Apr 18, 2001; Gaz Posting Brigade

Lol at Dan Coats being called thoughtful or effective

# ? Oct 21, 2016 22:47

Concerned Citizen: Jul 22, 2007; Ramrod XTreme

Shinjobi posted:

Bayh

i don't think this story is really going to be very bad for bayh. didn't hurt dan coats, hasn't hurt the huge number of federal politicians who barely live in their state.

# ? Oct 21, 2016 22:51

Fritz Coldcockin: Nov 7, 2005

Pinterest Mom posted:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/51a716548ddb41efad6e2dd06ae3366b/bayh-didnt-stay-overnight-indiana-condo-once-2010

Well, if it had to happen to a Democrat, at least it happened to the most garbage of Democrats.

# ? Oct 21, 2016 22:51

Brother Friendship: Jul 12, 2013

Concerned Citizen posted:

i don't think this story is really going to be very bad for bayh. didn't hurt dan coats, hasn't hurt the huge number of federal politicians who barely live in their state.

Doesn't help and a rings a few bells about carpet bagging and regional loyalty, plus it plays into his overall image as a corporate gently caress boy.

# ? Oct 21, 2016 23:16

Concerned Citizen: Jul 22, 2007; Ramrod XTreme

Brother Friendship posted:

Doesn't help and a rings a few bells about carpet bagging and regional loyalty, plus it plays into his overall image as a corporate gently caress boy.

yeah but no one actually cares about this poo poo, the bayh name is all the insulation he needs from an accusation of being Insufficiently Indiana

# ? Oct 22, 2016 00:21

Lycus: Aug 5, 2008; Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.

This seems like a super boring scandal, but I don't know how much Indianans care about this.

# ? Oct 22, 2016 00:43

Jazerus: May 24, 2011

Nobody gives a poo poo what the Star thinks nor do we care if Evan Bayh has been on a world tour since he left office, this will be down to partisans + name recognition which is a fight Bayh is likely to win.

# ? Oct 22, 2016 04:00

mandatory lesbian: Dec 18, 2012

Alter Ego posted:

Well, if it had to happen to a Democrat, at least it happened to the most garbage of Democrats.

that's not rahm emmanuel tho???

# ? Oct 22, 2016 05:07

Epic High Five: Jun 5, 2004

Young has been a stuffed suit moron voting straight ticket with no thoughts or opinions of his own, and for the Star to come out against Pence but support Young is ridiculously stupid

Everybody I've spoken to doesn't care where he's lived because nobody expects Senators to spend 90% of their time at home anyway, it's a weird angle and weirder that it's the tipping point for the Star.

It'll all be down to partisan lines. If Gregg wins then so does Bayh is my prediction

Lycus posted:

This seems like a super boring scandal, but I don't know how much Indianans care about this.

We don't, but a shitload of outside money has come in to support Young and this seems to be something that they feel will break Bayh. There's ads for it and "Bayh voted for Obamacare..." and whatever but they seem to be pushing this more since polling shows that people don't like Obamacare but they dislike how it was before even more so it's a tough wedge.

Epic High Five has issued a correction as of 05:14 on Oct 22, 2016

# ? Oct 22, 2016 05:12

Badger of Basra: Jul 26, 2007

https://twitter.com/ssnich/status/789868963530285056

People say the republicans have a deep bench but it turns out they're not that deep

# ? Oct 22, 2016 19:02

FMguru: Sep 10, 2003; peed on;
sexually

For no particular reason, here's the state of the Senate race:

Currently 54R 46D
Dems need +4 seats to take control of chamber (assuming they win the presidency in 2016, +5 if they lose)
34 seats are up for election (24R, 10D - the Tea Party class of 2010 is up for re-election)

Dem Seats (10)
9 are safe (CT, HI, MD, NY, OR, VT, WA), (CA-Boxer), (CO-Bennet)
1 is soft Dem (NV-Reid)

Rep Seats (24)
2 is likely Dem (WI-Johnson, IL-Kirk)
2 is soft Dem (IN-Coats, NH-Ayotte)
2 are toss-up (PA-Toomey, NC-Burr)
2 are lean Rep (MO-Blunt, FL-Rubio)
16 are safe Rep (AL, AR, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, ND, OK, SC, SD, UT) (AK-Murkowski, GA-Isakson, AZ-McCain, OH-Portman,)

So the Dems need to hold NV, grab WI and IL, and then get 2 of the 6 in-play Republican seats to control the chamber (assuming a Clinton win).

Ratings taken from: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html?_r=0

# ? Oct 23, 2016 06:27

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

I figure they pull 5-6, NC is the question mark though. Burr is still ahead for some reason in NC.

# ? Oct 23, 2016 14:53

Epic High Five: Jun 5, 2004

Seems like some super popular figure within the Democratic party will be spending time in NC bashing on Burr here soon enough, if Obama v. Liddle Marco and Clinton v. Toomey are any indication. Is there any precedent for this kind of downticket focus at this point that we can say, "oh here's a guy who is as popular at the end of his term as Eisenhower was calling the incumbent hot garbage using his own words, typically that will shift things X points" or is this all a brave new world?

I think Burr and Ayotte will get some personal attention in the coming days if I had to guess

fake edit - just checked and she's in NC today and NH tomorrow :getin:

# ? Oct 23, 2016 15:02

Spatula City: Oct 21, 2010; LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

FMguru posted:

For no particular reason, here's the state of the Senate race:

Currently 54R 46D
Dems need +4 seats to take control of chamber (assuming they win the presidency in 2016, +5 if they lose)
34 seats are up for election (24R, 10D - the Tea Party class of 2010 is up for re-election)

Dem Seats (10)
9 are safe (CT, HI, MD, NY, OR, VT, WA), (CA-Boxer), (CO-Bennet)
1 is soft Dem (NV-Reid)

Rep Seats (24)
2 is likely Dem (WI-Johnson, IL-Kirk)
2 is soft Dem (IN-Coats, NH-Ayotte)
2 are toss-up (PA-Toomey, NC-Burr)
2 are lean Rep (MO-Blunt, FL-Rubio)
16 are safe Rep (AL, AR, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, ND, OK, SC, SD, UT) (AK-Murkowski, GA-Isakson, AZ-McCain, OH-Portman,)

So the Dems need to hold NV, grab WI and IL, and then get 2 of the 6 in-play Republican seats to control the chamber (assuming a Clinton win).

Ratings taken from: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html?_r=0

My assumption is that Florida is too far gone, but we may see a poll that has Georgia close in the near future, and I think Arizona will tighten, though I still expect McCain to win.

I predict NV hold, WI, IL, IN, NH, PA, NC, MO pickup, for a grand total of +7.

# ? Oct 24, 2016 01:38

Corky Romanovsky: Oct 1, 2006; Soiled Meat

I am about to post my ballot for the only senator to vote against the USA PATRIOT ACT (not shouting, it is a stupid initialism/acronym).

# ? Oct 25, 2016 04:10

Name Change: Oct 9, 2005

Epic High Five posted:

Seems like some super popular figure within the Democratic party will be spending time in NC bashing on Burr here soon enough, if Obama v. Liddle Marco and Clinton v. Toomey are any indication. Is there any precedent for this kind of downticket focus at this point that we can say, "oh here's a guy who is as popular at the end of his term as Eisenhower was calling the incumbent hot garbage using his own words, typically that will shift things X points" or is this all a brave new world?

I think Burr and Ayotte will get some personal attention in the coming days if I had to guess

fake edit - just checked and she's in NC today and NH tomorrow

One of the reasons that a politician's popularity can surge is when they are out of the public's direct focus, and if polling is any indication, the electorate has the memory capacity of a goldfish. Hillary eats up way more attention than the president right now, and has for about a year. The White House downticket invasion tour, I would say, is more of a result of Hillary's successful campaign than Obama electrifying crowds. Because Trump has no ground game, tactically they can now spare the resources to attack him everywhere and expect results because GOP messaging is almost non-existent.

# ? Oct 25, 2016 20:07

Alec Bald Snatch: Sep 12, 2012; by exmarx

FlamingLiberal posted:

I figure they pull 5-6, NC is the question mark though. Burr is still ahead for some reason in NC.

because ross is completely unknown and burr has run nonstop negative ads practically calling her a rapist and sex offender for three months

# ? Oct 25, 2016 22:41

Civilized Fishbot: Apr 3, 2011

Alter Ego posted:

Dude is basically a Republican who's only a Democrat because of his father. He was a very conservative Democrat who retired in 2010 and now wants back in because reasons.

He'd won every single Senate race by crushing margins by coasting on his last name, despite being absolutely useless in terms of voting in the Senate. The only reason to hope he wins is because it's +1 to the Dems in the Senate.

This is a while back, but thanks for explaining!

# ? Oct 26, 2016 03:16

Jazerus: May 24, 2011

Civilized Fishbot posted:

This is a while back, but thanks for explaining!

however bayh is still undisputably the better choice

that's indiana for you

# ? Oct 26, 2016 03:23

The Whole Internet: May 26, 2010; by FactsAreUseless

FlamingLiberal posted:

I figure they pull 5-6, NC is the question mark though. Burr is still ahead for some reason in NC.

It's because Burr denounced HB-2 the moment it passed. He washed his hands of that dumpster fire right away. He's a bit smarter than the republicans in state government.

Ross is actually a great candidate and if people knew more about her they'd love her. I'm really hoping we run up the score in NC by enough to pull Ross past the finish line. :ohdear:

# ? Oct 26, 2016 18:15

Elephanthead: Sep 11, 2008; Toilet Rascal

I think Young will win. He is just the type of ahole we love to elect in Indiana. Bayh is blasting him with ads nonstop about being a tax cheat and paying with a rubber check. Outside spending against Bayh is insane though. Number one google result is an anti Bayh ad going to click it 1000 times.

# ? Oct 26, 2016 20:30

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Teachout is leading 44-41 in the latest poll~

http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/268767/pac-poll-teachout-leads-faso-by-three-points-in-ny-19/

# ? Oct 26, 2016 20:45

Mia Wasikowska: Oct 7, 2006

oystertoadfish posted:

this election does seem like a really good opportunity for the other side of the jim crow realignment, northeastern suburban republicans who vote D for president and R downticket, to continue their progress toward the democratic party

i would characterize the death of liberal republicans as a domino that couldn't start falling until the effects of the death of conservative democrats began to have its effect upon the gop. right now that sorta counts as a republican advantage - i would guess that they have more habitual ticket-splitters than democrats do (in the sense that more people will vote D for president and R downballot than vice versa - that's my hypothesis, anyway) - but i feel like it's basically inevitable. look at dudes like richard hanna, northeastern moderate republicans, retiring with obvious glee and immediately throwing grenades at the party

so hopefully that process gets a giddy-up thanks to the gop coalition completely blowing up any possible pretense that moderate/liberal republicans could make that maybe they're not the baddies

edit: a silver lining to the 99.99% chance that paul ryan will still be speaker in 2017 is that there's also a 99% chance that his majority is smaller and even more dominated by purity trolls who deeply hate basic governance, while the death of the jim crow democrat means that pelosi should have fewer republicans in democratic clothing in her caucus, although the democrats coming from places like the suburban midwest will deeply disappoint the kind of person who seriously thinks the democrats have moved so far to the right that the republicans' best move would be to become the new left-wing party

a later edit:

btw a good example of the democrats' problems is that in one of the ungerrymandered districts the courts created in virginia, in what was basically a 50-50 obama-romney district in 2012, the only democrat who bothered to file for the primary was an activist whose only prior experience was apparently losing a city council race in 2010
http://www.vpap.org/candidates/109460/elections/
now sometimes you get a great politician out of nowhere, but usually such a politician would have raised more than $12,373 by october (the republicans are running a state delegate who has raised $260K). so as good a representative as shaun brown (who, it turns out, is a black woman, which i didn't know till just now) might be, unfortunately it looks like she represents the democrats punting on 1st and goal

i hope this happens and is happening

# ? Oct 27, 2016 04:23

Badger of Basra: Jul 26, 2007

Apparently the Rubio/Murphy debate went pretty bad for Murphy

# ? Oct 27, 2016 14:03

TyroneGoldstein: Mar 30, 2005

It bothers me that stuffed suit Rubio is doing so well in Florida. That shitbird basically said he didn't want the drat job. The man doesn't break wind without permission from some backer and yet people seemingly don't see this.

# ? Oct 27, 2016 17:04

Badger of Basra: Jul 26, 2007

TyroneGoldstein posted:

It bothers me that stuffed suit Rubio is doing so well in Florida. That shitbird basically said he didn't want the drat job. The man doesn't break wind without permission from some backer and yet people seemingly don't see this.

Yes but: the Florida Democratic Party

# ? Oct 27, 2016 17:09

Mia Wasikowska: Oct 7, 2006

i really can't put into words how badly i want rubio to lose. i'd need to take some creative writing workshops just to even get a handle on expressing how badly i want him gone.

# ? Oct 27, 2016 17:13

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

Our State Dems are arguably the worst in the country.

We haven't elected anyone statewide for a major position since the 1990s. Unless you really want to count Bill Nelson but he's been there for some time.

# ? Oct 27, 2016 17:14

gret: Dec 12, 2005; goggle-eyed freak

TyroneGoldstein posted:

It bothers me that stuffed suit Rubio is doing so well in Florida. That shitbird basically said he didn't want the drat job. The man doesn't break wind without permission from some backer and yet people seemingly don't see this.

Yet the Democrats managed to find an even emptier suit to run against him.

e: LOL did Murphy seriously answer every question during the debate by bringing up Donald Trump?

gret has issued a correction as of 17:24 on Oct 27, 2016

# ? Oct 27, 2016 17:20

Lastgirl: Sep 7, 1997; Good Morning!
Sunday Morning!

Badger of Basra posted:

Yes but: the Florida Democratic Party

good joke m8

# ? Oct 27, 2016 17:44

STAC Goat: Mar 12, 2008; Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I'm watching the Ayotte/Hassan debate on CSPAN because I'm a nerd and I don't care about every news network covering a slippery runway where no one was hurt... and its striking me what a terrible politician Ayotte is. All through the debate she's just repeating the same talking points word for word over and over. Its like that Rubio "there he goes again" moment on loop. Its really striking from someone who is supposed to be one of the party's big up and comers.

# ? Oct 28, 2016 01:25

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

Mark Kirk is so loving stupid.

https://twitter.com/American_Bridge/status/791800880538550272

# ? Oct 28, 2016 02:10

GalacticAcid: Apr 8, 2013; NEW YORK VALUES

Oh my god what a colossal prick

# ? Oct 28, 2016 02:18

Lycus: Aug 5, 2008; Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.

Joementum posted:

Mark Kirk is so loving stupid.

https://twitter.com/American_Bridge/status/791800880538550272

Has he just given up?

# ? Oct 28, 2016 02:26

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

The context for that is she said her family has fought for America since the revolution.

Which they have. She's an active DAR member on her father's side.

# ? Oct 28, 2016 02:30