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Johnny Cache Hit
Oct 17, 2011

PupsOfWar posted:

I genuinely think the Democrats can nab Rand's senate seat if he is not on the ballot. The state Democratic party has a significantly stronger bench than the state GoP, and Obama-era Democratic policies are popular here (we just don't vote that way in the nationals due to our horrific racism, which should be less of a factor once Hillary eclipses the President). They would have to run a better campaign than Grimes did in 2014, but it can be done.

We also have at least one Republican-held House seat (the 6th, which contains Lexington, Frankfort, and a blue-leaning swathe of Appalachia along with the heavily red-leaning outer Bluegrass) that is ripe for picking off.

Who will we trot out, though? Beshear? I think the last poll I saw showed him with an advantage over Thomas Massie - who is quite the Tea Party darling. Conway has his eyes on Frankfort. Who else does that leave? Mayor Jerry? Greg Stumbo? I worry the bench may be deep but I'm not sure they stack up well against Massie.

And yeah, the 6th is an odd bird - the 2010 redistricting made it more blue than before. It's definitely winnable.

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