2016 U.S. Downballot: THEY ARE THE LAW

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > 2016 U.S. Downballot: THEY ARE THE LAW

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

If a year from now it's looking like Sink is in the front-running for FLSEN, we can write it off as safe R.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 01:03

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 12:24

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

FlamingLiberal posted:

I have to think she's done, much like Martha Coakley in Mass, right?

You'd figure quite a few Democratic voters down there can't remember how many races she's cocked up due to Alzheimer's or whatever.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 01:33

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Patter Song posted:

There's also the possibility that the generation after the millennials, a generation who knew not Bush, might not be nearly as friendly to the Democrats. Isn't the standard definition of millennial born 1982-1995? There are already members of the post-millennial generation voting and that number is just going to grow.

Yeah, it's definitely possible that those who were too young to remember the Bush years could be less friendly to the Democrats; I heard it's the case with a lot of British millenial voters, who were much too young to remember Thatcher but remember Blair.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 17:41

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

computer parts posted:

18-24 year olds voted least often for the Torys in 2010 though and had the smallest increase compared with 2005 (55-64 had a decrease).

I was referring to this opinion poll from last year. Though given the changes since then, I dunno how accurate it is now.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 18:17

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

evilweasel posted:

Actually you need it in 2020, the redistricting happens between 2020 and 2022.

Basically we have to hope the Dems don't horribly bungle the 2020 Presidential.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2014 23:04

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

De Nomolos posted:

So NC is a lean R, but there are rumors that Burr doesn't stick around. He was close with Coburn and that set, and Coburn pledged 2 terms and stuck to it (thing cancer intervened first), and apparently he's not aggressively seeking money like he should for a presidential year.

Despite the lurch to the right, NC still has a bench due to the obscene number of statewide electeds. AG Roy Cooper finally decided he wants to run for gov after 16 years as AG, so he's out. Janet Cowell is a potential star. 40something female with a strong resume. I'd hate to lose her on a Senate bid when she could be in line to replace McCrory or Cooper, depending on 2016. Anthony Foxx is a popular pick, but would have been better running as Mayor as opposed to "OBAMA'S ROADS BUREAUCRAT." Brad Miller could run. He's 63 and got drawn out of his House district. Dan Blue gets brought up, but he was Speaker in the 90s and may be seen as too old and worn even if he is in his mid-60s, though I could see them putting him up against Burr to goose black turnout, especially if no one else wants it in the case that Burr runs.

The only really clean candidate for that open seat on the GOP side is probably Cherry Berrie. Everyone else is too old (Foxx, Holding), unknown (Mark Meadows?) a prick (McHenry, Rouzer), or a lot more gaffe-prone than Tillis was (Dan Forest, Phil Berger, Robert Pittenger).

The only Republican I'd vote for is Troxler (personal reasons), but he's not going to run. Ag Commish is typically a safe, lifetime job and he doesn't really do politicking.

This technically isn't about the senate, but what would be the prospects of McCrory getting ousted?

# ¿ Nov 12, 2014 02:18

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

But which will win out in the end? The ironic goon love of fedoras or the unironic goon shaming of anyone who wears a fedora?

This guy is actually classy-looking, unlike your average le gentlemanchild Redditor, so I'll give him a pass on it.

# ¿ Nov 12, 2014 21:53

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

UberAaron posted:

As someone who lives in Arizona part of me is really excited by the idea of Palin as the Senate nominee, but Democratic nominees for state wide offices have been lovely lately. Hello, Senator Palin.

As a UC student, please take Napolitano back.

# ¿ Dec 1, 2014 03:50

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Didn't Clinton's tenure also happen to be when the right-wing media sphere really got off?

# ¿ Dec 1, 2014 21:02

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Dr.Zeppelin posted:

Didn't the 50-state strategy just end up electing a bunch of Blue Dogs who lost re-election by not opposing Obama hard enough? It doesn't seem like the people who want the 50-state strategy to come back are very thrilled with the Joe Manchins of the world but that's what expanding the map is going to get you.

Didn't a lot of those Blue Dogs work as hard as they could to not be associated with Obama? At the end of the day people will ultimately vote for a Red Republican than a Red Democrat.

# ¿ Dec 2, 2014 18:52

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

So Boxer's retiring

quote:

A parade of ambitious California public figures, who�ve spent years itching for a shot at the state�s top political offices, are anticipating a shake-up of the state�s political hierarchy that could begin in a matter of weeks with the possible retirement of Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. And some big names � including the mayor of Los Angeles � are already sizing up possible bids to succeed her.

Sources close to Boxer, 74, say the outspoken liberal senator will decide over the holidays whether to seek reelection in 2016 and will announce her plans shortly after the new year. Few of her friends believe she will run for a fifth term. Boxer has stopped raising money and is not taking steps to assemble a campaign. With Republicans taking over the Senate, she is about to relinquish her chairmanship of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.

If she were to step aside, it would be the first big crack in the state�s upper political ranks in years. The last time the governorship was open was in 2010, when Jerry Brown, now 76, romped in a return to the job he first held more than three decades earlier. Boxer and California�s other senator, Democrat Dianne Feinstein, 81, were elected in 1992.

For a backlog of up-and-coming pols, their opportunity may finally be arriving � and it will be very hard to to pass up.

�There has been a bottleneck at the top,� said Mitchell Schwartz, a Democratic strategist who was Barack Obama�s California campaign director in 2008. �In a state of 37 million-plus [population] � elected officials either need to move up or they are out of the game and forgotten quickly.�

Democrat Eric Garcetti, the 43-year-old Los Angeles mayor, has had preliminary conversations about a possible campaign with Bill Carrick, a veteran political strategist in the state, according to one source. Carrick, who has served as Feinstein�s political adviser and helped guide Garcetti�s 2013 mayoral campaign, didn�t respond to a request for comment. A Garcetti spokesman, Jeff Millman, declined to address the discussions, saying only that the mayor �hopes and expects Senator Boxer will continue her strong leadership in the Senate.�

Others are being encouraged by supporters. At a New York City dinner last week sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters, liberal activists pressed Tom Steyer, the billionaire hedge-fund manager and environmentalist from San Francisco, to consider a bid. Steyer, who poured over $70 million into this year�s midterm election, gave a coy nonanswer in response, according to one person familiar with the exchange.

Most of the attention, though, is expected to center on a pair of rising stars: state Attorney General Kamala Harris, 50, and Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, 47, both Democrats. For years, politicos have buzzed about a potential showdown between the two. Both hail from Northern California and rose through the ranks at the same time. They even share the same campaign consultant: Averell �Ace� Smith, a longtime Hillary Clinton adviser and top political hand in the state. In November, Harris and Newsom were easily reelected.

But as anticipation of a Boxer retirement has grown, the two have gone out of their way in recent months to tamp down talk of a rivalry. In September, they held their first-ever joint fundraiser at a San Francisco restaurant, where they lavished praise on each other.

Many Democrats believe that either Harris or Newsom might run for Boxer�s seat, but not both, recognizing that a bitter primary could leave them damaged. One of them is likely to wait until 2018, when Brown will be termed out of office and Feinstein might step aside. Newsom, who waged a short-lived primary campaign for governor against Brown in 2009, has been open about wanting to run again for the top job.

�They aren�t going to tear each other up,� said Joe Cotchett, a prominent Northern California trial attorney who counts Harris and Newsom as friends.�I don�t know anyone that thinks they�re going to run against each other. � They�ll work something out.�

Boxer�s office declined to comment on the jockeying for her seat, or, for that matter, on her future plans. A spokesman, Zachary Coile, pointed to Boxer�s previous statements that she would announce her plans early next year. Boxer�s lack of fundraising � she has just $150,000 in her campaign account, a fraction of the $3.5 million she had at this point before her most recent campaign � has fueled the speculation that she will leave the Senate.

What is a near-certainty is that Democrats will keep the seat. Republicans have been shut out of every statewide office and lack a bench of strong candidates. In 2010, Republican Carly Fiorina, the former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, lost to Boxer by 10 percentage points. The same year, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman spent $144 million as the Republican nominee for governor and lost to Brown by 13 points.

With their quasi-celebrity status, statewide name ID and deep fundraising connections, either Harris or Newsom would enter the race as the front-runner, handicappers say. But with a prize as rare as a California Senate seat in play, it�s assured that a long line of other Democrats in the liberal-friendly state would be in the running, too.

Since Harris and Newsom are both from the Bay Area, it could create an opening for someone from the much more population-rich southern part of the state. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is often mentioned as a potential candidate, as is his successor, Garcetti.

Other possible candidates include Rep. Jackie Speier, incoming California Secretary of State Alex Padilla and John Chiang, the outgoing state controller.

Some in the state are even buzzing about the possibility that Sheryl Sandberg, the Facebook chief executive and women�s advocate, might also jump in. A source close to her, however, said she �isn�t interested.�

As for Steyer, the wealthy environmentalist�s political consultant, Chris Lehane, wouldn�t say one way or the other.

�Tom has consistently said that he will consider the best ways to have the biggest impact,� Lehane wrote in an email.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/california-quake-113380.html#ixzz3LKvQ6gJf

First off, Harris looks way younger than 50, but I'd tentatively support her or Chiang I guess.

# ¿ Dec 8, 2014 20:32

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Alter Ego posted:

poo poo. How competent is the California GOP?

If it's anything, after the full results were in it's turned out that the GOP hasn't unseated an incumbent Democratic congressman since 1994. Kashkari was also a complete assclown of a candidate and went down in a landslide, even with very reduced turnout (though Brown did significantly better amongst white Californians than Obama did two years ago).

If anything Boxer was looking vulnerable for a while in 2010 against HP vulture CEO Fiorina, but she pulled through in the end.

# ¿ Dec 8, 2014 22:43

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Raskolnikov38 posted:

Didn't Brown not even appear in any ads for himself, he was doing so well?

Watching the TV at the gym, Brown's campaign was running ads in favor of stuff like prop 1 and 2, but I don't think I ever saw him run an ad.

Meanwhile, Kashkari had some incredibly entertaining in an oh-my-loving-Christ manner, like this one where he pretended to save a kid from drowning and started ranting about how Jerry Brown betrayed California schoolchildren.

And since we're on the topic of California, have this macro of the shithead who tried running in my state senate district by fearmongering to Chinese-American parents about how SCA5 would mean that quotas would mean their precious snowflakes' deserved UC admissions slots would instead go to undeserving black and Latino kids:

Jerry Manderbilt has issued a correction as of 22:49 on Dec 8, 2014

# ¿ Dec 8, 2014 22:47

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

I haven't heard much from Villaraigosa in years, aside from him getting disgraced in an affair or something before leaving the mayor's office.

# ¿ Jan 10, 2015 22:33

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Wow I always thought Villaraigosa was slimy but I had no idea just how much.

Anyway I'm split on if I want Kamala Harris running for governor or senator.

# ¿ Jan 11, 2015 02:57

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Ah, sweet. I'm wondering who'll run for governor in 2018 though (and I hope it's just her in the field, given how our primary system works).

# ¿ Jan 13, 2015 02:12

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

How different would our politics look had David Duke won his senate election in 1990�as in, if black Louisianans didn't turn out en masse to vote against him.

# ¿ Jan 20, 2015 00:39

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

The former congressman from a region which looks like it'll never vote D again (southeast Ohio)?

# ¿ Feb 24, 2015 23:28

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

De Nomolos posted:

The former guy that won statewide in 2006 pretty easily and got caught in the same wave that got literally everyone? Yeah, let's get loving Kucinich to turn out Ohio's latent leftist majority.

I...never said anything about Kucinich, though?

# ¿ Feb 27, 2015 01:20

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Joementum posted:

Nah, Birch Bayh was one of the most productive Senators of the 20th Century. Did you vote at age 18? Birch wrote the amendment that made that possible. Are you a fan of the Presidential line of succession? He wrote that one too. Wish the ERA had been ratified? He drafted it. Attended college as a woman? Birch pushed Title IX through. And a lot of other stuff.

His son Evan..... not so much.

So are Birch and Evan Indianan analogues to Mario and Andrew, then? The son coasting on his father's name and goodwill to get into office?

# ¿ Mar 25, 2015 23:49

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Joementum posted:

Manchin's staying in the Senate, so that seat's safe for the Democrats.

WV goons, is he personally popular enough or has the state's electorate shifted too much for him to survive?

# ¿ Apr 19, 2015 17:46

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

ComradeCosmobot posted:

As an uneducated American having read a little bit about this, Wildrose is basically the Albertan version of the Tea Party.

Their whole Tea Party thing happened 20 years ago (Reform/Alliance), with it cannibalizing the old conservative party and reabsorbing it. Stephen Harper's from the Reform wing.

# ¿ May 6, 2015 18:58

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

"Lolita Grayson" :stare:

# ¿ May 19, 2015 20:11

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

i wonder if the death of labor also has something to do with this; as pupsofwar said in last month's uspol thread, a lot of old union miners and steelworkers in appalachia may be very racist and socially conservative but still vote D reliably since they remember the labor struggles of the 70s and 80s. meanwhile, the youth in that region are also socially conservative, and sure as hell aren't voting D over their parents' and grandparents' dead unions

# ¿ Aug 27, 2015 19:30

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

The Nastier Nate posted:

Earlier in the year, when I assumed Pat Toomey would be facing off against Joe Sestak next year, I figured Toomey would be able to win with a slightly bigger margin than 2010, which was something like a 2% difference.

Then Katie McGinty entered the race and every Democract in PA from Philadelphia to Allegheny county lined up behind her, and in addition to that, Toomey voted for the Planned Parenthood defunding which hurts him. Now, the results of last nights statewide judicial elections ended in a republican spanking. This was an off-year where voter turnout was based on the non-contest for Philly mayor, local and county races.

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ENR_NEW/

I think that Toomey is done next year, as PA seems to be trending more and more blue. We were the only state in 2014 to flip a governor from R to D, partially because Tom Corbett was universally reviled, but also due to voter trends. And if dems ever get control of the redistricting and undo the lines that the GOP has drawn over the past 30, you will see our congressional seats and state senate control flip in the very next election.

what's with the results for superior court county-wise? i'm surprised to see delaware county going r, where a lot of those counties in southwest pa (greene, fayette, washington) that swung hard to mccain and romney went d

# ¿ Nov 4, 2015 21:33

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

i'd imagined that given how unpopular diaper boy was, if he stood down next year then another republican without his baggage could retain his seat easily

v i'm aware

Jerry Manderbilt has issued a correction as of 21:38 on Nov 22, 2015

# ¿ Nov 22, 2015 20:10

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

from what kentuckian goon friends tell me, conway couldn't win an election if his mother was the only voter and only got into the AG office off of beshear's coattails

# ¿ Jan 26, 2016 22:57

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

lol i almost can't believe he's under 50% approval rating over SCOTUS

# ¿ Mar 10, 2016 02:11

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

And the Democratic candidate for Senate in Kentucky is now an openly gay man. I'm happy with this choice. Of all the people we could pick to lose to Rand, this is the best one. After Kim Davis, and all the jokes about our state the coastal elites make, we could definitely use the good PR.

http://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Mayor-Jim-Gray-among-those-vying-for-a-US-Senate-seat-379758551.html

Hope he's a good enough standard bearer to keep your state house blue and RTW out

# ¿ May 18, 2016 00:48

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

mcmagic posted:

Black and Hispanic people are really the only thing standing between this country and the abyss.

hey man we asians might have saved mark warner from an upset two years back

# ¿ Jul 23, 2016 04:53

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Gyges posted:

Democrats actually vote in Presidential years. I don't remember there being much hope in 2014 though.

otoh didn't chambliss get back in after he got forced into a runoff in 2008

# ¿ Aug 6, 2016 04:50

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Ego-bot posted:

She's also a big fan of Indian PM Narendra Modi, the guy who, as Chief Minister of Gujarat, led race riots where hundreds of muslims were killed.

Didn't Gabbard have some really terrible policies about homeless people too?

i thought her connections with the BJP go deeper than that

# ¿ Aug 16, 2016 13:08

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

mandatory lesbian posted:

chicagoland is such a dumb name, it sounds like a theme park

the metroplex sounds dorkier imo

# ¿ Aug 27, 2016 18:38

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

i don't want to be reminded that ro khanna is likely my next congressman :barf:

# ¿ Aug 30, 2016 12:51

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

ufarn posted:

He's a Silicon Valley cartoon character who's probably going to be very centrist.

"centrist"? he's been interviewed by breitbart and he's in cahoots with noted aspiring vampire and open white supremacist peter thiel and a lot of the most racist portions of the chinese-american community

Jerry Manderbilt has issued a correction as of 13:33 on Aug 31, 2016

# ¿ Aug 31, 2016 13:30

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Shageletic posted:

EDIT: Ro Khanna was utterly repulsive last electoral cycle, and yes is just a 90s era Republican in a Democratic skin suit. Well, outside of the abortion issue.

ro khanna also threw his lot in with deranged racist chinese reactionaries raising hell about data disaggregation because they thought it was a backdoor to reinstating affirmative action here, i really loving hate my ethnic kinsmen sometimes

also he's been interviewed by breitbart too, if that gives you any idea of the circles he runs in but keeps quiet about :lol:

# ¿ Sep 29, 2016 01:32

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

we very nearly had two republicans advancing to the general for one of the statewide offices in 2014

# ¿ Oct 12, 2016 01:50

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 12:24

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

fwiw denham's district actually voted for obama in 2012

and heck, that was the first time that stanislaus county�which it's based around�had given a majority of its votes to the democratic candidate since 1964

# ¿ Oct 19, 2016 15:16

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > 2016 U.S. Downballot: THEY ARE THE LAW