2016 U.S. Downballot: THEY ARE THE LAW

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > 2016 U.S. Downballot: THEY ARE THE LAW

Pauline Kael: Oct 9, 2012; by Shine

computer parts posted:

Well, the issue with that is that immigration rhetoric is fairly constant, only changing with the demographic migrating. To "fix" it you either have to have a new ethnicity migrate in large numbers or you have to stop migration of Hispanics.

Really their best bet would've been to establish a separate identity of "Mexican-American" vs "Mexican" (and so on for the other nationalities) but that ship sailed with LULAC in the 40s-60s.

How do you explain the R wins in the TX border areas? They're majority Latino, but put Rs into office. It would appear that they voted against your perception of their self interest.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 20:34

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 13:03

Pauline Kael: Oct 9, 2012; by Shine

evilweasel posted:

Why don't you link something to support your claim and I expect we can debunk it in about thirty seconds.

My, you're sure impressed with yourself.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Texas-Latino-vote-splits-5876952.php

Houston Chron posted:

In the state's only competitive congressional race, a heavily Hispanic district between San Antonio and El Paso, Republican challenger Will Hurd narrowly beat Democratic incumbent Pete Gallego.

also, some related stuff here
http://www.pewhispanic.org/2014/11/07/hispanic-voters-in-the-2014-election/

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 20:58

Pauline Kael: Oct 9, 2012; by Shine

evilweasel posted:

The article you linked is paywalled, but another article that has the same opener has this:

"significant portion" is undefined but is obviously sub-50%, it's probably in the 30-40% range, and it's one race, not "wins". The only real surprise in there is the Cornyn race where he actually got 48%

Basically all of the races referenced in your two articles bear out that Republicans slightly outperformed 2012, but not by a whole lot - by a few percentage points (and as was discussed in the other thread this is still worse than 2010 which suggests it's the usual midterm thing). Basically, what this all bears out is that you can indeed find rare examples of Republicans outperforming the baseline but the baseline is there and solidifying. The conclusion you want people to reach - that latinos are going to start voting Republican - is obviously false from the Pew link.

Sure, what I actually said, repeatedly, is that Republicans don't need to carry the Latin vote, but peel a few points off to augment their strong and growing advantage amongst white voters. If it makes you feel better to imagine demographics are going to save the D party in 2016, 2020, or beyond, then you can continue to do so.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 21:16

Pauline Kael: Oct 9, 2012; by Shine

Deteriorata posted:

I don't think the Republicans have too much more margin available in being the party of white people. They've pretty much got everyone they're going to get based on racial identity alone.

So, what's the bigger number, Latinos who vote on racial identity alone, or white voters who do so?

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 21:41

Pauline Kael: Oct 9, 2012; by Shine

Deteriorata posted:

Why does that matter? Your argument was that Republicans should ignore Latinos and concentrate on getting more of the white vote. I'm skeptical of that argument as I don't think there's much more of it to get.

It's also a losing strategy, as the gains from pursuing a larger portion of a shrinking demographic do not offset the losses from winning a smaller portion of an increasing demographic.

No, my point, explicitly stated a number of times in this and other threads, is that Republicans can tread water or peel off a few points of Latinos and even Blacks, since I seriously doubt (and would love to hear you rationalize otherwise) that an elderly white grandmother will generate the same level of excitement in either community as Obama did in 08 and 12. Also, you may want to consider the actual demographic trends and stop thinking that tomorrow we're going to wake up and all the road signs will be in Spanish. We're a LONG way off from the 'ascendent coalition' from being in the majority.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 21:53

Pauline Kael: Oct 9, 2012; by Shine

evilweasel posted:

The ascendant coalition is already in the majority. That's why Obama won twice.

Seriously, it's like you're Mitt Romney a week before the election.

Oh, good point, the Republicans will run Mitt Romney every 4 years henceforth. I hope he does better against Barack Obama next time!

In 2004 GWB got 44% of latino vote. Your entire strategy relies on that never ever happening again.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 22:07

Pauline Kael: Oct 9, 2012; by Shine

The Warszawa posted:

The GOP had its shot to cement this when Bush proposed comprehensive immigration reform - and the rest of the party doubled down on the white right. Short of some serious realignment, undoing the last decade of Republican rhetoric on, well, Latinos generally is not happening any time soon.

Then no doubt, we are entering a permanent era of Democrat dominance at the Federal level!

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 22:15

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 13:03

Pauline Kael: Oct 9, 2012; by Shine

The Warszawa posted:

Not at all - the most the GOP can do for the Democrats is make it unpalatable to Latinos to vote for Republicans. Unless Democrats keep their game up re: Latino outreach, the more likely scenario is a declining Hispanic share of the electorate. I also think that individual candidates for House, Senate, and gubernatorial seats can break from this, but it's more that they're starting a few paces behind with the generic Republican line on Hispanics. Hispanics also disproportionately belong to demographics that, for whatever reason, don't turn out - the young, the working class, etc.

This is a pretty decent article on the topic

http://thefederalist.com/2014/11/10/democrats-history-is-on-our-side-history-good-luck-with-that/

It's opinion for sure but doing a better job than me of describing the parts in motion

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 22:43

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