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jindal is horrifically unpopular in louisiana so i really doubt he gets one of the top two spots in the jungle primary, even if he runs, which i have a hard time seeing probably a d and an r will make it through to the final and the r will win
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Nov 22, 2015 17:23
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he already said he'll stand down next year, in his concession speech last night http://www.wdsu.com/politics/david-vitter-gives-concession-speech-says-he-will-not-run-for-senate-reelection/36595744
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Nov 22, 2015 20:12
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most fundraising happens outside the area the elected official would represent because most of the money comes from people who wouldn't be represented by the elected official. asking those people to come to the elected official's erstwhile jurisdiction would just be bad begging tactics. you've got to go to where the money is certainly exacerbated by mcginty being the establishment's favored candidate - they've got to pimp her out to the money people. this is also why she's probably an early favorite to win, although things other than fundraising are certainly predictive i hope the Hosts and the Sponsors are allowed to spit on the Guests vv that's interesting thanks for teaching me that knowledge oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 05:15 on Nov 29, 2015 |
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Nov 29, 2015 03:54
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just to bump this thread i'm watching a unlv basketball game, where their home court is named after jerry tarkanian, and remembered that his son danny is a perennial losing candidate in republican nevada politics, including failing to defeat sharron angle in the 2010 senate primary there's been a little bit of poo poo going on - not too much. various fuckres are in the louisiana senate race, one of the democratic candidates for california is spending her campaign money on fancy bullshit and the other is demonizing muslims, i dunno that's all i can think of right now. its fun, kinda there's some vague chance that enough republicans will run for la-sen that the two democrats in the race end up with the two highest %s and the runoff election will be between two candidates from the minority party, which happened to the gop's favor in a ~57% obama house of representatives district in california in 2012, but probably not let's be honest (lbh) next year i'll make a house of representatives thread if nobody else does oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 06:19 on Dec 17, 2015 |
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Dec 17, 2015 06:16
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i like daily kos elections' daily digest. it's very informative. rrh elections would be better if their web site wasn't so lovely, i read it for a while but there wasn't too much they covered that dke didn't also dke does a lot of good work getting stats and maps together too, that's more relevant for the house and the state legislative elections though
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Dec 18, 2015 00:14
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edwards hasn't released her Q4 fundraising report but on her Q3 she said she had $368K cash on hand. van hollen's Q4 report says he has $3.67M cash on hand. i bet edwards would've released her report by now if it showed her gaining on him media in the dc market is expensive but i think i've seen poo poo indicating that the returns on a fundraising advantage diminish pretty quickly. it's only really predictive when you've got one candidate raising real money and the other one raising nothing it's pretty early though and polls aren't showing one of them as way stronger than the other
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Feb 3, 2016 01:52
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so Edwards's fundraising report came out and she's still got like a tenth of what van hollen has. also one of the ca sen gop candidates dropped out, i think there are two of them left in, making it slightly less likely that the Republican minority will split their votes in the all party primary election and allow the two Democrats Harris and Sanchez through to the top two round in November Democrats will probably lose the Kentucky state House this year but apparently there wasn't a wave of democrat incumbent retirements like some people had feared so the dam has not obviously broken yet, at least. probably their best chance for 2018 is an unpopular Republican president, but in that scenario they probably lose the majority this year
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Feb 11, 2016 18:13
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kander's an afghanistan vet too iirc obviously kerry was a vietnam vet and couldn't get the vietnam-era cowardice charge to stick so i guess it comes down to whether people in missouri will look at kander and say 'yeah that guy's a war hero and the person he's calling out must be a coward' kander seems to get respect in the poo poo i read. he might be a good enough politician to win a red state in only a slightly favorable democratic election - as opposed to the types who need a historic goldwater-type wave and who can't leverage incumbency to survive in less favorable elections. so that's more than nothing but it's really a lot like talking about prospects in sports, there's very little information and even if information were perfect the way the guy develops in the future can only be guessed at PupsOfWar posted:I think right now the Kentucky Democratic Party's strategy is to stick their heads in the sand and hope that the Bevin administration self-destructs and takes the state Republican party with it for a while, like what happened with the last Republican governor, Ernie Fletcher. Which, hell, might happen. hell, it might work. pretty much the definition of a short-term solution lundergan grimes has the stench of high-profile failure about her but she did win her statewide election last year right? and her big loss was in a republican wave year. if she gets lucky the next time she shoots for a promotion, maybe all of a sudden the ky democratic party has a standard-bearer again it is odd how there are some people like beshear who can sell (some) democratic policies in the south, but most people just can't pull it off oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 05:51 on Feb 12, 2016 |
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Feb 12, 2016 05:43
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ive never been to kentucky i went to nashville once and i guess kentucky fried chicken sells nashville hot chicken now? so i guess ive basically been in kentucky that is to say, i dunno, i have no actual data so i could just shut up but naaaaaah ill keep talking maybe grimes had her shot and failed but she wouldn't be the first politician to make a comeback that didn't seem very probable
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Feb 12, 2016 06:02
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PupsOfWar posted:It's complicated. thanks for that write-up, that was really interesting Franco Potente posted:There's also an open seat in IN. I know it's IN, but they've also got a gubernatorial election in 2016, and the unpopular Mike Pence is up for re-election. A presidential year + the potential for unpopular Republican president and gubernatorial candidates + a SC issue might just flip the seat. After all, IN broke unexpectedly in the past two presidential elections (voting for Obama in 2008, electing Joe Donnelly in 2012). the mainstream republican candidate, young, apparently submitted too few signatures, or at least the democrats are challenging him for such. if he gets thrown off the ballot then the tea party stutzman guy is the candidate, i guess. the spin on daily kos elections is that he's less electable and the democrat, hill, will have a better chance at beating him. how much better, we won't know until we find out a) who the presidential nominees are and b) how much people hate each of them on a more ridiculous note, how long would trump have if he wanted to run as an independent for senator in his 'second home' state of florida?
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Feb 15, 2016 18:17
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re: fl-sen i think grayson's gonna lose that primary but there's plenty of democrats who love that he's their louie gohmert and don't care about his cayman islands trust fund, or that he opposes raising taxes on the rich on principle. personally i think it'd be great for him to sit in the house talking poo poo and running significantly behind the democratic presidential nominee in a safe blue district but apparently (surprise!) he's an egomaniac. one of my friends says he brought drone strike victims to capitol hill for a hearing and it's too bad he isn't happy with being The Guy Who Does That and needs to fail to climb the ladder probably patrick murphy, who won one of the closest districts by presidential vote in the nation with a margin far exceeding obama's, is going to win the primary after the advertising gets spent strategically speaking, the guy who won a toss-up district with margins exceeding that of the president would be the better nominee for a toss-up state but hey maybe the primary voters gently caress it up the republican primary is sillier i think there's a bunch of fuckers running. the lobbyist who won fl-13 in that special election over sink in 2013 or whatever dumped his district after it got ungerrymandered (crist is gonna win there i guess?), but now he's saying he won't fundraise, like a loving former lobbyist is too ethically pure to raise money to try to get elected. it's an odd move. there's some tea party guy democrats want to win, some establishment types, a few people with geographic bases in different parts of the state, same deal as most places this early in the election cycle. i think that webster guy whose gerrymandered republican orlando district got turned blue is trying to win this thing too, i can't remember whether that's considered desperation or a guy who could win bunches of central florida gop primary votes oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 01:47 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 01:44
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pennsylvania's interesting because toomey seems to have cultivated a moderate image, so especially now that the senate's likely to be in the news all year with the supreme court it'll be interesting to see if he can outperform the republican presidential candidate to the degree that he'll need to to survive outside of a scenario where the national electorate is functionally identical to the republican primary electorate in which case there's no debate worth having, obviously if the gop gets pa's electoral votes toomey wins another term in the senate i think on the democratic side i think mcginty probably wins that one although clearly nothing is decided, fetterman has a nice story and could rise with a bernie tide but fundraising and polls are somewhere in the gray zone between 'dead candidate' and 'rising star' from my vague recollection and sestak has no money and seems to have more appeal in rural parts of the state that won't contribute a large percentage of the democratic primary vote, again from my vague ignorant observations my vague impression of how sestak won the 2010 primary was that he was the guy who said 'no gently caress that' when the democratic establishment decided to embrace party-switching arlen specter, and it turned out the actual democratic voters wanted to end specter's career. how wrong is that? it's pretty impressive he only lost by 2% in the general election, btw, but he still seems like a weak candidate from the poor fundraising. and probably specter would've picked up the margin and pulled off the win against the tea party wave FAUXTON posted:the FL Dems are basically all people still held over from the Carter era. of note here is that patrick murphy, the guy i think is the electable candidate in the democratic primary, was a republican until a few years ago. crist is another successful democrat, probably will be part of the house minority next year, who followed such a pattern this seems to make the most liberal florida democratic primary voters piss and poo poo themselves so it'll be interesting to see if murphy can get through the primary - i suspect he will but i think early polling shows slight grayson leads with high undecideds. murphy has more money and in past elections has shown an ability to get more people to vote for him than grayson has oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 06:22 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 06:17
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FAUXTON posted:That's what happens when you poo poo all over the half of the state that's growing while fellating the half that's shrinking. it makes loving over government workers electorally dangerous, that's one great thing about virginia being a swing state i think there should be a house thread soon, the first primaries are on march 1st! alabama, arkansas, and texas https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_6M_D6QmR52g56g_H_iymgDk7mlAIIArb9lVxC9IiQw/edit#gid=1347664583 all three have runoffs later the OP should probably have a list like that, a histogram of house seats by presidential voting pattern like this from here which is democrat-biased and kinda whiny but is a really good look at districting tbh  and links to people like http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings http://rothenberggonzales.com/ratings/house http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-house/ what else? we should get that thread started, it'll be pretty dead for a while but poo poo is about to get crackin oh a link to zoomable google maps of all the districts since just a jpg would be worthless for trying to figure out districts in any densely populated area. can we embed google maps? this page has separate maps for each state, some of which are outdated due to republicans creating intentionally illegal maps and playing out the clock so they got to run 3 of 5 elections between constitutionally-mandated redistrictings on the illegal maps. but there must be something like that for the country as a whole oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 05:05 on Feb 24, 2016 |
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Feb 24, 2016 05:01
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the investing in eritrean slave labor mines is pretty hilarious. also kind of instructive, in that you can go through a few house elections without something even this seemingly obvious coming to light. try to move up a rung on the ladder and you look like a loving idiot, but he was getting away with it for a while there edit: and to be clear about my last post - if someone wants to build on my thoughts about a house thread OP, especially by finding a google map with the whole country's house districts to link to or with any other suggestions, i'll either write up a mediocre version or one of y'all can take the baton and make a better one. but i think it'd be nice to have a thread before the first congressional primaries, which i believe are on tuesday! that OP would include a discussion of upcoming races, so starting with super tuesday and moving through the march and april primaries oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 07:17 on Feb 25, 2016 |
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Feb 25, 2016 02:05
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once it's final i'll update my stillborn house thread with the big news that none of the incumbents lost and nothing interesting happened. it's the perfect start to the house's election season shelby winning isn't surprising but i think a lot of safe-seat republican congresspeople who couldn't lose in even the worst democratic wave and whose only real worry is losing a primary will start to feel less personally threatened by a trump candidacy
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Mar 2, 2016 05:46
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even at its worst i doubt this topples grassley, but obviously it's good to have a candidate if they nominate the Iowa lady he said all that nice poo poo about in her last confirmation, the one who was confirmed like 97-0, that'd help with the attack ads
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Mar 3, 2016 23:54
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ppp always has lower approvals than other people but their last one for grassley wasn't <50% if he really does have to be the front man for never-ending obstructionism, i guess i could imagine him taking real damage. it'd be nice
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Mar 10, 2016 04:14
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i suspect jane kelly would be the best pick. obviously i know like 0.0001% of the things about her, but she's a former public defender which would be a nice perspective to have on the supreme court, you'd think, and grassley has some really, really, really nice quotes about her that would look really bad in attack ads btw senate primaries comin up yall. duckworth is almost certainly gonna win, she has all the money and endorsements and i think her opponents are splitting the chicago vote it really endlessly entertains me how uncompetitive primaries are below the presidential level. it's completely intentional. the first sign of this trump/bernie poo poo actually causing 'change' would be anything out of the normal at all happening at the senatorial or congressioanl levels. haven't seen signs of it yet. i spose its early
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Mar 10, 2016 08:09
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Cliff Racer posted:If you mean people primarying incumbents then no duh, it doesn't happen at the presidential level either. that is what i meant, partially, speaking in the context of how i don't think grassleys gonna lose - i could've been clearer. if every office had a two term limit maybe they'd all be as competitive as the presidency, but the way the system is set up, the vast majority of Congress comes back every time and the spectating interest focuses on open seats in the primary, followed by a relatively short list of swing districts that has been shortening for a decade or more. you're right that this phenomenon is duplicated on the presidential level, and that it doesn't mean competition is entirely absent really though grassleys main strength is that he's a really good politician who works really hard to keep up his name recognition and responsiveness to constituents back home, which is independent of the structural factors i brought up edit: ok so i should have said non-open-seat primaries are uncompetitive, as is i can see how what i said made no sense oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 01:15 on Mar 11, 2016 |
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Mar 10, 2016 22:16
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it is surprising, i had thought he was considered a pretty good maneuverer when it came to pretending to be centrist too. i guess aside from the immediate fundraising there's no real repercussions this early, but if he's gonna act like this all year he probably hurts his chances, and therefore his party's chances at holding this stupid legislative body as for the issue at hand, i kinda hope the gop fucks themselves out of this guy and we end up with a younger more leftist nominee - but i dont really know what to think
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Mar 17, 2016 04:53
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if you're talking about arizona's house map, it isn't gerrymandered, it's drawn by an independent commission that republicans hate and have been trying very hard to subvert https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redistricting_in_Arizona http://azredistricting.org/ if anything the requirement their commission has for creating "potentially competitive" seats probably helps democrats
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Mar 17, 2016 20:48
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GalacticAcid posted:Oo sweet, I had heard Kirkpatrick's district had been redrawn into tougher borders, so I assumed it was gerrymandering at work. Thanks for clarifying. yw. i'm not totally attuned to the details of arizona districting, i don't know what last decade's map was like, so i know less than you about that part of your point as far as mccain losing, it could happen but in a republican-leaning state it's likely that those undecideds will disproportionately fall in behind him once the primary is over. i think he got lucky with his primary opponent, though, it's just the lady who held a hearing on chemtrails right? if the establishment completely fucks over the will of their voting base at the presidential convention i guess he'd be among the candidates who would suffer most from the anti-establishment backlash. at the same time, arizona could be a site for democrat gains in the dream trumpocalypse scenario of heavily increased hispanic turnout and heavily decreased republican turnout. so the combination of being an unpopular establishment figure and running in a state with lots of hispanics could make mccain uniquely vulnerable by millionth-term incumbent standards this year. could be interesting
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Mar 17, 2016 22:01
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afaik grayson is a corrupt finance industry rich guy who decided to become the louie gohmert of the left that can earn a guy a following but it turns out maybe he should've been satisfied with coasting in a safe house district 'cause now his poo poo is falling apart. but i'm guessing he's an egomaniac, so here we are this whole thing where the democrats are going to spend a shitload of money propping up a demonstrably lesser candidate against sestak because he hosed up the deal they made with arlen specter when he switched parties six years ago by beating him in a primary seems pretty ugly, but i guess if you're gonna be a political machine you have to follow through when somebody goes against you. it's not exactly hopey or changey is it i say mcginty's demonstrably lesser because she doesn't have an impressive electoral history and trails by a large margin in primary polls even as undecideds seem to be dwindling (although it's really way too early for the polling point) while sestak not only beat sestak but barely lost in the biggest republican wave election of our generation oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 04:16 on Apr 7, 2016 |
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Apr 7, 2016 04:10
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axeil posted:Sestak also apparently was a terrible campaigner and wouldn't play ball with anyone. Also a complete rear end according to what I've heard from folks I know back in PA in politics. Like Ted Cruz but a Dem. im not surprised to hear any of that, but man he must have pissed everybody off for the whole democratic party all the way up to obama to pile in without mcginty really showing anything (i guess they got her a good fundraising report) i bet there's a lot of horrible assholes in politics who dont get this sort of treatment i dunno i dont really have any care about it, it just seems like an odd occurrence. i guess that's because sestak is so hateable
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Apr 7, 2016 05:20
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i wish he wouldve been willing to stay in the house and kept doing it but i think there's no realistic scenario where he wins a statewide race in florida
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Apr 7, 2016 05:52
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Cliff Racer posted:Its twenty days away, if you can't poll now when can you? i could be glib and say two weeks from now but fair enough. i guess the impression i'd been getting was that there were still a ton of undecideds, making the polling less meaningful than it could be; maybe that's changed, maybe it'll change in the next few weeks, maybe this will still be a low-information electorate when the primary comes up i only know things posted in dke and their comment threads and im usually a day or five behind on my reading for good measure so i should probably just shut up and learn so given that context im sure its not surprising that i think sabato is responding appropriately to the gop primary by moving downballot poo poo toward the democrats
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Apr 8, 2016 02:49
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just from two weeks in madison and a 90 minute delay in the airport i can tell you there's a LITTLE bit more than miller in wisconsin. new glarus is the name that comes to mind but there were so many other breweries im forgetting. madison is a nice rear end town btw. never been anywhere else in wisconsin
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Apr 9, 2016 09:43
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FAUXTON posted:
believable
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Apr 9, 2016 19:16
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not if you're black.
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there's some drama going on where edwards used an obama clip to call van hollen an nra ally, then obama's people got mad, but carefully avoided shaming edwards by name, bc van hollen had agreed to let the gop put some stupid nra rider on a bill to try to get it passed and he was working with the white house, so the edwards pac said they'd take the ad down but theyre still attacking him as a guy who sucks guns like dicks or w/e silliness i think a van hollen ad called edwards the most useless non-republican member of the house, so the poo poo is being flung both ways on the face of it it seems like van hollen shouldnt have taken the risk of jumping into this race, he was one of the youngest guys high up on the leadership chain in the house for the d, but i guess the house is just a loving horrible chore to be a member of and every egotistical rear end in a top hat wants to be a senator, even if you dont get to lead poo poo, and maybe he's sick of it and he'd rather take the shot at the senate now and just gently caress off and become a multi-millionaire whoring himself out as a lobbyist if he happens to lose
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Apr 21, 2016 03:28
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senate primaries occurring as we speak. discuss! MD: van hollen almost doubling up edwards, only 3% reporting http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/maryland PA: mcginty almost doubling up sestak who's barely leading fetterman, fairly robust 26% reporting http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/pennsylvania looks like the establishment candidate's gonna win these shits
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Apr 27, 2016 02:29
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latest rcp has, two weeks ago, showed a tie http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/az/arizona_senate_mccain_vs_kirkpatrick-5455.html single polls in march and january had him up +1 almost 20% undecideds, though, and you can reliably expect an incumbent in a state that leans his party's way to pick up well over half of the undecideds. so i would still say he's favored. however if latino registration is increasing like anecdotes and limited evidence says it is, arizona could potentially see an accentuated blue wave
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Apr 28, 2016 03:26
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i remember i worked for the nih when specter made a funny deal where he got the nih a shitload of money in exchange for voting for the stimulus bill. ten billion dollars. but it was a one-off deal, so iirc the nih basically had to plan for stimulating like 400 jobs total with grants that would assuredly not be renewed two years later, which isn't really the best way to do research i guess i dont hate the guy for supporting basic research but he had to do it in a stupid political way and all that science couldnt save him from BEING DEAD
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Apr 28, 2016 03:32
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in the actual senate primary tonight, establishment goper todd young beat the gently caress out of tea partier marlin stutzman, which had been expected based on him firing a bunch of top campaign officials and not raising much money. the fault lines in the gop presidential primary have, so far, really not been evident in their lower-level primaries baron hill was the uncontested democratic nominee and might win in a wave but he will have been hoping for stutzman to win
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May 4, 2016 02:15
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May 12, 2016 03:48
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last i saw grayson was leading the polls (i dont think ive noticed a poll in a month or so though, maybe something's come out i missed, i don't follow florida politics especially). however, people were expecting that murphy's proven ability to run ahead of obama in his congressional district contrasted with grayson's inability to do the same in his, plus murphy's assload of money, plus the fact that murphy is centrist as gently caress and florida kinda is too, not to mention this gigantic pile of obvious poo poo to pay for ads attacking grayson on, would eventually eventuate in winning polling numbers. i guess there's still a ways to go yet
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May 12, 2016 05:24
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rick scott won in midterm years iirc so im guessing its more 'florida voters will make either of these guys a one term senator except that they probably wouldnt even let grayson win this year'
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May 12, 2016 05:57
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posting this in the downballot thread people actually read: jon ralston, the reporter everybody* always goes to when nevada politics are worth paying attention to, wrote an article about his trans son https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/child-i-love *daily kos elections and rrhelections.com, the political sites i follow, anyway
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May 24, 2016 04:52
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haha what a failure she turned out to be. she's the one who said roman polanski got punished too hard for raping a minor, lol. apparently she 'disavowed'
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May 25, 2016 21:51
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apparently the guy got a four-year college degree in two years so the mcgintyites are trying to say that means she was right. or whatever i dont think this will be a very significant event tbh
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Jun 3, 2016 23:53
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| # ¿ May 14, 2024 11:49 |
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DOOP posted:It's a non-issue, but still a very dumb thing to say to be technically correct it seems really dumb that she made a point of saying something thats pretty clearly false for essentially no reason, yeah im glad it got posted, this kind of poo poo is funny to me, politicians are so weird about lying, it's just that i don't think it'll make hundreds of thousands of people vote hillary/toomey or hillary/[blank] which is almost certainly a prerequisite for a democrat losing pennsylvania but whatever we'll see
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Jun 4, 2016 01:37
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