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Cliff Racer posted:What on earth makes you think she'd make a better candidate than Sestak? Sestak has has been a congressman and an admiral. He knocked out a sitting senator in a primary back in 2010 (though that guy was a party switcher) and took Toomey right to the line in a very hostile environment. McGuinty served in an appointed position and ran a go nowhere campaign for governor where she did nothing to distinguish herself. The DSCC is really wracking their brains trying to find ANYONE that isn't Sestak. Josh Shapiro repeatedly turned them down, (probably so he can run to replace Kane), and now Pawlowski has his own problems with the FBI. As far as McGuinty, I don't think anyone was going to make any headway in the dem primary race for governor. Schwartz came in a distant 2nd, and she couldn't even win Philadelphia or Montgomery, her 2 home counties. That being said, I would call PA a tossup no matter who ends up running against Toomey, and if I had to pick one, I'd say Toomey wins by a 3 or 4 point margin. He's done a decent job of positioning himself as more moderate, even though he is to the right of the state as a whole. Saying the race leans dem I think is democrat wishful thinking.
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Jul 17, 2015 18:44
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My opinion, is that Sestak is one of those candidates that looks good on paper (admiral, military service, congressman) but for some reason I can't define, doesn't translate into votes. That, and he is clashes with the party higher ups. Toomey on the other hand has for the most part kept his head down, has not been confrontational and even (slightly) moved to the center during his time in the senate sponsoring a lot of legislation with democrats (Bob Casey especially, for obvious reasons), including the Toomey-Manchin gun background bill. In my experience, it doesn't take a lot for moderates in PA to vote for a republican, as long as they can say "he's not one of the crazy ones". Don't get me wrong, Toomey is still quite conservative, but he knows he needs to soften up to win in 2016. I also have a theory that Casey and Toomey have a gentleman's agreement to stay out of each other's races, so I would not expect him to campaign for Sestak. Barring some horrific scandal, I would not bank on Toomey losing in 2016, but if he does it will be on the strength of Hillary Clinton's coattails.
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Jul 21, 2015 18:46
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DOOP posted:She'll have the backing of the state, but let's see if she can run a campaign My prediction: McGinty beats Sestak in the primary 57-43. Toomey beats McGinty in the general 52-48.
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Jul 23, 2015 03:01
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Toomey just voted to defund Planned Parenthood, there's no way that won't hurt him next year, especially if Katie McGinty wins the primary. I'm pretty sure everyone in PA saw that coming, but I thought there was a slight chance he might break ranks to try and shore up some moderate cred. Kirk from Illinois who I believe is up for re-election next year was one of 2 republicans who voted against, and the other was Mitch McConnell...which I guess is some kind of procedural thing?
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Aug 11, 2015 15:33
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Cliff Racer posted:Yeah, procedural. I don't think that the Planned Parenthood vote will hurt Toomey much either, if at all. Abortion hasn't been much of an issue around here, as far as I can see. With Specter we had been electing a pro-choice Republican for ages and between the two Caseys you can say the same for electing pro-life Democrats. I do miss Arlen Specter. Shortly before he lost his primary, a friend got us a guided tour of the Capital building through a charity thing from his office, and we were supposed to meet him...but the scheduling got messed up and while we still got the tour, he was not in DC that week. Casey voted in favor of PP, and I don't think it's so much the pro-life thing that will hurt Toomey as it is the "women's health" thing, something that McGinty will hammer from the day [if] she wins her primary, to the general. Toomey's biggest problem is going to the suburbs. Philly is a lost cause for republicans and Pennsyltucky is firmly red. The suburbs like Bucks and MontCo are filled with upper middle class folks who would love to vote for a moderate republican, but are very socially liberally.
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Aug 12, 2015 14:57
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Sestak is damaged goods and Fetterman is unknown and a wild card. Mcginty will win the primary and go on to a very competitive general. I previously said Toomey would squeek it out, but I think his planned parenthood opposition and running against a woman might tip the scales against him.
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Sep 29, 2015 02:02
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FAUXTON posted:If they hand Sestak the nomination again they deserve to loving lose again. The top brass of the PA dems including the current and former governor are all backing McGinty. They really want her (actually they REALLY wanted Josh Shapiro) over Sestak and everyone else seems to be falling in line. At this rate by April the only one who wil be endorsing Sestak is Pat Toomey.
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Oct 17, 2015 19:46
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Earlier in the year, when I assumed Pat Toomey would be facing off against Joe Sestak next year, I figured Toomey would be able to win with a slightly bigger margin than 2010, which was something like a 2% difference. Then Katie McGinty entered the race and every Democract in PA from Philadelphia to Allegheny county lined up behind her, and in addition to that, Toomey voted for the Planned Parenthood defunding which hurts him. Now, the results of last nights statewide judicial elections ended in a republican spanking. This was an off-year where voter turnout was based on the non-contest for Philly mayor, local and county races. http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ENR_NEW/ I think that Toomey is done next year, as PA seems to be trending more and more blue. We were the only state in 2014 to flip a governor from R to D, partially because Tom Corbett was universally reviled, but also due to voter trends. And if dems ever get control of the redistricting and undo the lines that the GOP has drawn over the past 30, you will see our congressional seats and state senate control flip in the very next election.
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Nov 4, 2015 14:40
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De Nomolos posted:That Panda=Pander tactic sounds really stupid. Who sees a Panda and thinks its a bad thing? "Oh look, someone dressed up as a kindly Panda bear, what is he doing here? Is there a kid's birthday party nearby?" Here's a better question - how do I get a job as a staffer following around some guy all day dressed in a panda suit? No wait, I got a better idea for Pennsylvania. Let's dress a guy up as a Tombstone and say it symbolizes all the dead seniors who died from medicare cuts, call it Toomey's Tombstone.
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Nov 9, 2015 15:25
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Cliff Racer posted:Before anyone gets pissed at this being held in New York.... thats normal for PA politicians. Doesn't mean I have to like it, it's a pet peeve from republicans and dems. It's not like she's running for state rep where a district might not have a decent venue. She has literally the entire state of Pennsylvania to hold a fundraiser, including the 5th biggest city in the United States.
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Nov 29, 2015 02:43
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Why is anyone seriously talking about Ben Carson for FL senate? What's he going to do, run a write-in? the ballots are already printed and early Voting has started.
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Mar 11, 2016 02:01
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I know it's not a senate race, but the PA attorney general race is a nail biter. I thought Shapiro (I live in MontCo so I've been familiar with Shapiro for a decade) was going to have an easy win but him and Zappala come from 2 very different sides of the democratic party. With 41% results in: MORGANELLI, JOHN 13.89% 83,356 Votes SHAPIRO, JOSHUA D 43.02% 258,171 Votes ZAPPALA, STEPHEN A II 43.08% 258,528
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Apr 27, 2016 03:00
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GalacticAcid posted:Hahah I'm just curious if his name was the top of the ballot. Although that might vary by county, not sure. He was in MontCo
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Apr 27, 2016 03:33
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Zapp Brannigan posted:There's also the fact that the Democratic party has huge influence in PA. Sestak has practically been campaigning for this seat since he lost the last election. McGinty literally came out of nowhere over night and won this thing because of Obama, Wolf, and Wasserman-Shultz. Wolf definitely helped since she got to be his chief of staff for a year and pad her resume, but she won pretty handily and would have done so without Obama or the national democratic machine behind her. Sestak lost because as others have said, he's a great candidate on paper but not so much in practice, and I think most of McGinty's voters felt like he had his shot and they didn't want him to blow it against a Toomey rematch.
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May 4, 2016 20:25
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FMguru posted:Enjoy reading all those "Is the GOP dead!?!?" articles now, because in two and a half years the GOP will look like world-beating titans. I don't disagree with you overall, but I think the GOP of the 2018 midterms will be very different (in tone and policy) from the 2014 variety.
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May 9, 2016 17:36
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GalacticAcid posted:We have our first scandal in the PA race. I read about this the same day I saw Donald Trump making GBS threads on a Mexican American judge presiding over a fraud case against the republican nominee for president of the United States. Katie McGinty could push an old woman in a wheelchair down a flight of stairs and we'd all still be numb to it after whatever 500th crazy thing Trump did yesterday. It's a good year for down ticket races to air out their dirty laundry.
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Jun 7, 2016 03:57
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Pat Toomey is very conservative, but he's also good at keeping his head down, doesn't say anything too controversial and occasional throws a bi-partisan bone out there for his blue-state constituents.
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Jun 13, 2016 21:39
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Mitt Romney posted:Could Beshear have beaten Rand paul this year? I am not from nor have I ever been to Kentucky but that seems like one of the few states where riding Trump's coat tails is a net positive rather than negative.
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Jun 14, 2016 02:31
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Cliff Racer posted:I don't know if you guys were paying attention or not, but one of the candidates who had not announced his opinion in regards to Rubio's primary was Ron DeSantis, a tea partyish rep. who was also running for the seat. He dropped down to run for his house seat today so it really does look like it will come down to Rubio versus Beruff. I honestly think Marco will wipe the floor with him in the primary. Having more candidates is usually good for the incumbent but in this case I think he's helped by having the reduced competition. I find it ironic that the same primary voters that chose Trump over Rubio in every county except one are going to sweep him through the primary, unless of course they don't...which would no longer make it ironic but way funnier.
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Jun 23, 2016 05:27
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Cliff Racer posted:If you look at statewide elections(or even those of state house districts within state senate districts) that happens all the time. State-wide office holder runs in a primary and loses, even on his own turf? Its far from career over. True, but at the very least, a handful of lucky Floridians will be able to say "I voted against Marco Rubio 3 times this year!" VVV He will be Schumer's problem. The Nastier Nate has issued a correction as of 16:01 on Jun 23, 2016 |
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Jun 23, 2016 15:53
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Cliff Racer posted:I am basing my statements about voter fatigue less on American history than I am the history of other democratic nations. The party in power, over time, starts eating poo poo due to the general state of life in the country, particular parts of its agenda that are not popular, whatever economic woes occur and other harsh realities of making policy. The party out of power, freed from the burden of governing can spin whatever bullshit tale it wants. Even in countries which do naturally favor one side, the other side will occasionally find itself winning the election due to public dislike for the current face of the country's governance. 2024 is going to be like the republicans 2016 as anyone with a D at the end of their name will throw their hat in the ring. The reason the democratic cupboard is bare is because Hillary has spent the last 8 years sucking all the
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Jul 7, 2016 01:00
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Slate Action posted:I think there literally aren't enough Democrats in the whole state of GA to elect Barksdale. There are maybe enough to win the state for Hillary if every single one turns out. I don't know much about GA but if it's anything like PA, Trump will bleed moderate Republican support like crazy, but they will still vote R down ballot and that might keep the senate seat R but lose the state for Trump.
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Aug 7, 2016 06:29
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sharkbomb posted:Clinton +9 in Pennsylvania in RCP average, but McGinty (D) only +0.5 over Toomey (R) makes no loving sense to me. The republicans in the burbs are breaking away from Trump hard, but Toomey has done a good job of not pissing off many moderates.
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Aug 10, 2016 21:00
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Slate Action posted:Congratulations to Rob Portman on being reelected to the United States Senate. Katie McGinty and Maggie Hassan are high-fiving each other right now.
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Aug 30, 2016 03:48
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Schnorkles posted:https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/774276615354388480 The only democrat that had a reasonable chance on that list is McGinty, and she's far from a lock. Toomey will hold all the republicans in PA, and I have a pet theory that a lot of iffy Clinton voters will gravitate to Toomey and feel better about voting for a moderate republican and give themselves a big Pat on the back for being bipartisans. (I'm fully aware Toomey is very conservative on most issues, but he is a sane, rational adult and in 2016 that's a selling point and not just a given)
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Sep 9, 2016 21:35
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Evil Fluffy posted:Rubio is not going to lose reelection. He's going to get reelected and then resign shortly after the new Congress is gaveled in, allowing Voldemort to pick a replacement (who might not have won an election on their own) while Rubio leaves for whatever cushy job he was promised when he agreed to run again. That or he'll stay a Senator through the term and manage to do even less than he has already. Rubio isn't going to resign. If he wanted a cushy patronage job he would have lined it up already. He didn't walk back a year of "no I'm not running again, the senate sucks" to quit in 6 months. The only way you'll get rid of Rubio before his next term is up is if he becomes president in 2020. Sorry Florida dems, better luck in 2022.
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Sep 20, 2016 13:20
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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/786530003206991872 Those suburban numbers are brutal. 20 years ago, the Philly suburbs were republican strongholds. Toomey has to run at a minimum 9 points ahead of Trump to even have a prayer.
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Oct 13, 2016 14:17
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GalacticAcid posted:Philly transit workers are now on strike. When I lived in the city, my polling place was a 2 minute walk, and even if i lived at the edge of my precinct area, it would have been at most a 15 minute walk..and I didn't even live downtown I was in the far northeast. Even though Philly is really good about having lots of polling places, I think it would least have somewhat of an effect, it might tip the scales in a close race. Props though to the transit workers, they really know how to put the mayor's balls in a vice grip. If PA doesn't deliver for McGinty, who is a Philly native, because of a lower turnout during a septa strike, the DNC will be none to happy with them. Public transit across the entire state could go on strike and I don't think that will save Trump from losing PA.
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Nov 1, 2016 16:49
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Ego-bot posted:I've heard rumors that Mcauliffe is going to run, any truth to this? Democrats are too
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Nov 8, 2016 22:37
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I called Pat Toomey winning by a squeaker, but the hows and whys of what I thought were so far off I'm embarrassed. Trump...carried...Pennsylvania, I am still in shock. Everything I thought I knew about this dumb state is wrong. 2 years ago we kicked out a republican governor by 9 points and last year all 3 seats on the state supreme court went to democrats. Romney and McCain couldn't win here, President George loving Bush couldn't...Trump did. I assumed like everyone else Clinton would carry PA by about 3-4 points and Toomey who was far more acceptable to suburban women would run 5 points ahead of Trump. Turns out Trump was plenty acceptable to suburban women, now the lesson for Toomey is to get on the loving Trump train right now. If he had embraced Trump the day he won the PA primary in a landslide, Toomey would have won by a bigger margin. In retrospect it's easy to see why McGinty lost and I'm surprised she didn't lose by more. She's cut off from the same cloth as Hillary Clinton, a city dweller, favored by the entire PA democratic establishment, who'se spent her life bouncing back and forth between the public and private sector and getting rich in the process. She excites no one, and as we learned the prospect of the first female
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Nov 10, 2016 14:34
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GalacticAcid posted:I guess Josh Shapiro is the great hope for PA now. Shapiro waited a whole week after being sworn in for his 2nd term as Montco county commissioner to announce he was running for AG. He's already laying the groundwork to succeed Wolf as governor in 2022 (or possibly 2018 if for some crazy reason Wolf only wants to serve 1 term). It's obvious he only ran for AG as a stepping stone for state wide name recognition on his way to governor (he has no prosecutor experience and hasn't been a lawyer for like 15 years) Josh Shapiro used to be my state Representative when he was in the PA state house, I've met him several times. He is smart, polished, has alot of crossover appeal and is very charismatic but also overly ambitious and everything about him reeks of career politician. If the mood of the electorate when he wants to move up is still "gently caress the establishment" then he's toast.
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Nov 10, 2016 20:05
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