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Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
I don't see anyone being able to outflank Hillary in the primary.

Foxnews has done and amazing job equating liberals or progressives as evil, so Bernie Samders won't get any traction. Warren May or may not run but she's terrible at debating, Omalley is boring to listen to, and Castro just isn't ready yet.

Can we get pot legalization on a lot of 2016 ballots?

It just seems pretty obvious that it's gonna be Hillary vs whatever semi moderate likable business wing republican that had to veer hard right to fend off the lunatics.

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Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Chantilly Say posted:

I would honestly love for Rand Paul to be the (R) nominee because I want to see if there's anything else hilarious that can fall out of that tree when you shake it. We've had plagiarism, we've had the Southern Avenger, we've had Aqua Buddha, and I'm hoping there's more somewhere he's been able to hide so far.

Maybe he was a ghost writer for his dads newsletters.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
If all the states allotted EV's proportionally, would Romney have won?

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

comes along bort posted:

As if Webb isn't running to be Hillary's defense secretary.

A few people I know jumped off the Hillary train as soon as Webb made a move at all.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Killer robot posted:

If I recall, the polling in 2008 went from "clear Obama victory" to "too close to call" from the Palin announcement until the bottom fell out of the stock market, but this was mostly because so many people didn't realize how loopy she was yet rather than because that sold well. She was just picked for being young, an outsider, and not a white dude.

Not really. State level polling always had Obama ahead from basically July onwards.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Daduzi posted:

Way I see it Huckabee and Santorum would be fighting for the religious right, and Paul and Cruz for the Tea Party contingent, leaving Bush the standout moderate unless Romney commits.

Chris Christie

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

WhiskeyJuvenile posted:

Do either Warner or Kaine run?


No, Jim Webb is running. Warner might be a good vp candidate though

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Joementum posted:

Martin O'Malley won't be challenging Hillary. He's starting as a Visiting Professor at the Johns Hopkins University business school on February 2.

Is Biden doing anything to indicate he might run?

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

De Nomolos posted:

Michigan and Wisconsin will move as far away from the Democrats as NC and Georgia will move towards them in the next decade.

Black people and Hispanics are moving to the later. The former are increasingly whiter.

Soon you won't be able to make that "USA/Jesusland" map anymore.

We're forgetting the more important demographic shift of Texas in this.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
I think there are some goons who made upwards of 40k on intrade.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
Really, why wouldn't Snyder, Scott, Kasich, and Walker just all rally around one of them instead of all of them running? They're all basically the same.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Dan Didio posted:

You mean skewed polls.

Unskewed polls! The guy claiming Romney was going to win like Reagan did in 1980

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

I can't wait for Game Change HBO movie just to see who they cast for the GOP candidates


This show is fantastic. Thank you for posting it

Josh Brolin as Rick Perry
Donald Trump as Donald Trump
Vincent D'onofriio as Jeb


That's all I got. It's so hard to remember all these guys.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Gyges posted:

Come on, you aren't even trying.

Cuba Gooding Jr. as Dr. Ben Carson

Why wouldn't you cast Herman Cain as Dr. Ben Carson?

I'd cast Cuba Gooding Jr. As bobby Jindal just to piss all the republicans off.

John goodman as Chris Christie would be amazing.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Swagger Dagger posted:

Am I the only one that thought Game Change 2 was pretty bad, compared to the original?

It felt like they didn't put enough effort into it or the gop didn't give them the same access due to the first one....

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

LeeMajors posted:

I find myself following all the GOP candidates ravenously....just a vast collection of fucktards that are always on the brink of stepping right on their own dicks.

For some reason, Ben Carson fascinates the hell out of me. It's hilarious how he's been coopted by some of the most conservative people I know because 'he's a doctor' and not at all because he's an 'eloquent' black man, no sir, no way, no how. :allears:

Bring on debate season....I cannot wait.

I've found myself doing this since 2006 or so, and it just gets more hilarious and depressing each year.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
I can't believe this is actually happening. Even better is that my mother and her 9/11 Truther husband are probably going to donate the max for trump.

They've been openly wishing he would run since 2008. Scary richly get?

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Alter Ego posted:

They don't have much in Western MA or the Cape, either. Central MA seems to be the only place where there's a large concentration of rear end in a top hat Republicans, and even then they're not Tea Party types so much as establishment, FYGM rich-people types.

I know this is a few pages too late, but the Merrimack Valley is FULL of rear end in a top hat Republicans. I can't drive through my city without seeing some jackass with a confederate flag bumper sticker.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
I am ridiculously excited for this debate. A group of us had a local bar open up its function room free of charge for the night so we could watch on the big screen.

Also, Christie and Trump going at it will be glorious.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
Anyone else feel like the debate tomorrow will be the most watched debate in years?

What started as a joke about Trump running turned into 3 of my friends and I talking about having a debate party at someone's house which has now turned into a 50 person+ debacle in which everybody who is anybody in my small city seems to be going to.

I'm honesty worried there will be a brawl between the feuding families and I won't get to see Trump in action. So many people are watching this.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
The only good thing about President Trump would be when someone inevitably tries to block his idea and he goes on national TV to say "speaker boehner blocked my bill today because he wanted to add an amendment to it which only benefits his district or X business." That would be hilarious.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
Let's assume Trump doesn't get nod and runs independent.

If he takes 25% of the dem vote and 40 rep vote from 2012 in each state, it would cause AZ/GA/NC to go blue. Indiana, Missouri, Montana, SC, and Mississippi would take weeks to call. Trump still wouldn't win any states.

If you raise the dem portion to 35 and reps stay the same, TRump could actually win

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

PrBacterio posted:

at this point I honestly can't decide anymore if my reaction to poo poo like this ought to be like :allears: or like :gonk:

I just can't even begin to see why these people can't be consistent on live television over the course of one week.

On the flip side, it provides good fodder for my election based fb group, but it's really sad for the country.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
Everybody I talk to (In MA/NH) seems to support Trump. Even people in here and in my politics fb group (political clusterfuck) are starting to warm up a little to him. Hell, even I'm finding myself defending him to people who like Carson or Santorum. I'm starting to think he's actually going to be our next president.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Do Not Resuscitate posted:

How dull would this race be without Trump in it? Do you realize what we would have missed out on?!

Oh, we'd probably be going on about how laughable 2016 was turning out, how it rivaled 2012, etc. -- and it probably would -- but we'd have no idea... NO idea...what could have been!

Thank you, Donald J. Trump, for this alternate universe we find ourselves in.

I think Christie could do a decent job at playing the loudmouth aspect of Trump, while Carson/Fiorina would benefit from the anti establishment.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

Hahahaha gently caress Scott Walker forever.

Seems that the last few polls have had anti establishment candidates totaling around 51-52%. Bizarre time to be interested in politics, and I'm not entirely sure how I feel about this.

That being said, I organized a 30 person gathering at a local bar for the last debate and the bar owner wants me to do it at every debate. He offered up his function room no charge, and now I'm getting recognition for uniting politically minded people at big gatherings?

Anyone live in the NH/MA coastal area who might be interested, haha?

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

tomapot posted:

That would be fun, I'm nowhere near the area though. I am going to watch at my buddy's house, like we would watch a football game. :munch:

Yeah we do it in Amesbury, MA. If anyone is interested, ever, PM me.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

McDowell posted:

The Average American is not very bright and does not think independently of television. Antivax is a new way for the Illuminati to cull stupid people.

How is "spread them out" an anti vax position?

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

nachos posted:

I think Trump/Carson/Fiorina will all rise in the short term at least, the tea party just won a massive victory and there is no tolerance for establishment guys right now. Media will talk about anti-establishment momentum and their poll numbers will rise accordingly.

What happened?

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
I'm still hoping Biden makes a surprise appearance tonight.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
Biden announces during the debate, so the debate get pre-empted by Biden's announcement and Obama's endorsement would be the best troll.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
Anyone have a list of what everyone raised in q3?

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
There is absolutely no way that Trump is In a room with 2,000 people. Tyngsboro is not a big place.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Mr. Powers posted:

It's right on the NH border with easy access to everyone from Nashua to Manchester and the people here love Trump. I'd believe it.

I know Tyngsboro well. The elementary school, where he was, can't hold 2000 people. The school system barely has that many kids

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
Bush is toast.


Although I'm having fun pointing out to the Trump people who are angry Trump said that that his point was valid because all of Georges advisors are behind Jeb

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
Do we know who Perry and Walker have endorsed yet?

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

quote:

(CNN)Donald Trump is once again alone at the top of the Republican field, according to the latest CNN/ORC Poll, with 36% of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents behind him, while his nearest competitor trails by 20 points.

Three candidates cluster behind Trump in the mid-teens, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 16%, former neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 14% and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 12%. All other candidates have the support of less than 5% of GOP voters in the race for the Republican Party's nomination for president


Morning Joe seemed so exasperated by this this morning

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Peel posted:

Trump is on top. Carson below him and falling fast. Cruz and Rubio about even, then Bush gradually declining into Kasich-Paul-Huckabee status.

The Carson surge is the main intervening event, being possibly the first time a presidential candidate has been beset with allegations that he did not attempt to murder someone.

A few of the polls this week have Trump on top, Cruz/Rubio about even and Carson below that.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

SnakePlissken posted:

A major element of the JEB story is sibling rivalry. In fact, a major element of the story of the downfall of the republican party is that rivalry. George bested his brother at the expense of the party, ultimately. And of the United States.

Can you imagine how high energy a Jeb/Gore election would have been? Jesus Christ im falling asleep just thinking about it.

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Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
Trump on Jeff Kuhners radio show. This should be good.

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