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sullat
Jan 9, 2012

SedanChair posted:

Ted Cruz commits impiety by undermining faith in the government he was entrusted to sustain, so Poseidon (Obama) sends snakes to destroy him. A Laocoön coloring book.

More like Ted Cruz realizes that Obama is secretly trying to infiltrate Socialism into the US in the guise of a "gift" and will desperately try and warn us. But our fate is sealed and the gods are trying to destroy (his career) in revenge.

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sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Ninjasaurus posted:

Carson is clearly a joke candidate and I'm cynically assuming he's just trying to raise his profile by running and doesn't actually expect to get the nomination.

Another Bloomberg article posted today quoted a Clinton insider as saying a Jeb Bush/Rob Portman ticket could make a worthy opponent to Hillary. Thoughts?

In the same way that paper makes a worthy opponent to scissors, maybe.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Chamale posted:

Why do you think that? The odds favour Hillary in a matchup against Bush, but he's one of the least bad candidates the Republicans have. His only problems are his poor governorship, ludicrous economic ideas, and brother, which are things the voters will learn to ignore.

It being far too early to say for sure, but so far I don't think any of the Republican bench is going to be very competitive with Hillary/???. But Bush III and Rob "Rob who?" Portman don't seem like they'll get much traction. I realize that they both have the kooky economic ideas that enrich their friends and that the tea party loves, but there are plenty of guys who have those and don't have all the baggage associated with the Bush name. Scott Walker may be universally despised, but he's got big money behind him, got the union-busting street cred amongst the far right, while someone with a bit more involvement with the evangelicals would probably do better in the primaries than a Catholic convert.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

joeburz posted:

Wasn't Lincoln a lawyer?

In those days the requirements for being a lawyer were a lot less strict. He read a couple of books, and was admitted to the bar before they had exams and stuff. Probably helped that he was a state rep at the time. He got a job with one of his wife's relatives, where he presumably learned how to do lawyering.

Like being a vampire hunter or a doctor, it was just something you could decide to do and just pick up along the way.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

The Warszawa posted:

You can still "read law" via an apprenticeship in a bunch of states today and it substitutes for a law degree when you sit the bar exam in that state.

Heck, in California you don't need either, you can just take the bar exam. But I think in Lincoln's day, there was no actual exam, just an "evaluation" by the bar.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

The Warszawa posted:

I'm sorry, less self-inflicted tragedy?

Sure, you're still a lawyer, but without the crippling student loan debt.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

DACK FAYDEN posted:

I genuinely don't understand why leftists are always against trade policies that end up exporting jobs. Do people really want to work a poo poo job that someone in another country will do for a buck fifty an hour? Wouldn't it be better to leave the trade agreements intact and create good jobs instead, that people don't hate as much and that can have a salary that can be spent on the nice cheap goods from free trade?

I mean, as long as the government is doing something, it might as well be something you actually like, right?

Also, manufacturing jobs were kind of the bedrock of unions and the middle class for several decades. Even though those jobs are probably gone forever, at least waxing rhapsodic about bringing them back makes for good talking points. Although I suppose the transition of support jobs (call centers, tech support, medical imaging, lab work, programming, etc) overseas is definitely something to be concerned about since those jobs are still around and are kind of important white-collar middle class jobs.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

computer parts posted:

Outsourcing lab work is one of those things where the market will correct itself because there's a reason why it's cheaper over there.

You want the market to correct itself before or after the flood of malpractice suits? In terms of say, drug research, well, the big pharma wants specific results, so if it can get yes-research cheaper overseas than it can here, well, there's really no incentive to move back.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

My Imaginary GF posted:

1. Veep pick is about money. If enough folks are trying to goad Clinton into picking Warren, she may see the value in a symbolic, white-bread progressive pick.

2. I'm not sure about Warner. She's not going to pick anyone who'd get more of a spotlight than her, nor will she pick a woman. I can't see what donors Warner would bring that Clinton can't already get.

Frankly, Clinton has a Hollywood problem and needs someone with bi-coastal appeal. Someone who either has their own network, or someone who she can put in front of LA and rake in their cash while she focuses on her traditional monetary base. Or so I expect the logic of her next campaign director to go.

Veep pick was about money for Romney in 2012. Not really about money for any one else. Mostly about covering perceived deficiencies, whether it be experience, gravitas, regional, melanin, or chromosonal.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Joementum posted:

The problem with this is that Gore was (or nearly was) elected and the only reason that you're excluding Johnson and Truman is that they assumed office after their President died. Oh, and HHH nearly won in '68 and most likely would have won if Nixon hadn't illegally sabotaged the peace talks.

I thought he sabotaged the peace talks for the 72 election, how did he do it for the 68 election too?

Chamale posted:

I know that it happened, and it still astonishes me as the most blatant treason by a Presidential candidate in American history. Chennault urged a Communist group to continue shooting American soldiers in order to help Nixon win the election.

Unless he was a lich or Nixon was a necromancer (not too much of stretch), it would be difficult since he had been dead for 10 years when Nixon was running in 68.

sullat fucked around with this message at 01:40 on Dec 8, 2014

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

GoutPatrol posted:

His wife. Look farther than the first google result.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Chennault

Wife, eh? Guess my patriarchy must be showing, didn't think to check her bio.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Fried Chicken posted:

Huh, so that's where GRRM got the idea

Yeah, there's a naval battle with the Kievan Rus that's pretty much just like the battle of blackwater, right down to the sacrificial hulk filled with Greek fire.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

William Bear posted:

Given the lifespan of horses, is Rafalca likely still in good shape four years later?


NY Times brings up an interesting point:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/08/us/politics/in-gop-a-divide-of-ideology-and-age.html


Could it be possible that Huckabee is getting out of shape to run for president?

Probably just wants a book tour at this point. Going to join in the grifting circuit.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Good Citizen posted:

Huckabee is already a veteran of the grifting circuit. I doubt he quit his job for a simple book tour vanity campaign. Dude wants to be prez

Campaign/book tour is a stop on the circuit. It's not like he's permanently banned from his sinecure at Fox if he runs.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

shadow puppet of a posted:

Wasn't there a theory going around that Mitt would clean up his lone 2011 tax return and then file to amend the poo poo out of it after he lost? Can he re-amend that return now that he has decided to run again or will he delightfully refuse to release it and trot out a solitary, sparkling 2015 return instead?

Yeah, he initially claimed that he paid "about 15%" in taxes, but the actual amount was closer to 10%. So his 2011 tax return showed 14% or so by not claiming a lot of charitable deductions and other deductions that he was probably eligible for, so the theory was that he would amend it after he lost. Also, the prevailing theory is that the real skeletons in the closet were from the financial crisis (2007-2010) so he probably doesn't need to conceal the later tax years.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012
Has Kerry given up on his presidential ambitions? Seems like he could have another run in him.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

ComradeCosmobot posted:

On the other hand, James Buchanan.

He had a life partner. And a niece, as I recall.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

shadow puppet of a posted:

Can Mitt legally run with one of his sons on the ticket?

As long as they're over 35, sure. They'd just need to take up residence in the San Diego manse before the election, to get around the "different states" rule.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Jackson Taus posted:

Nikki Haley. Romney endorsed her in 2009, she's apparently conservative enough, and she's a minority woman. She's also currently in office (where Romney's been out for a while).


Honestly, I don't think that the current comments against Romney would matter much. If Romney's winning come late fall, some of the also-rans are going to realize they don't have a shot, and switch to a more positive message or switch to attacking Democrats exclusively or switch to attacking other non-leading candidates. Then after they get whomped in Iowa/New Hampshire they'll drop out and endorse Romney, leaving them decently enough in the campaign's graces to still have a shot at VP nomination. Biden and Edwards had both been in the Democratic primary before dropping out and getting picked by the winner. Cheney essentially picked himself for Bush, and the 2012 Republican field was really weak. I don't think it's inconceivable that a fellow primary candidate gets tapped for GOP VP, but it hasn't happened in a while (Reagan picking GHWB seems to be the only example, but it's a small sample size).

Also in 2012 not only were the candidates weak, but they bad mouthed Romney. Hard to say which was the bigger reason none were picked. Unfortunately the sample size for "Romney VP picks" is rather small. Hopefully we'll get more data in 2016 and by the 2024 or 2028 run we'll be able to model Romney's behavior more accurately.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

My Imaginary GF posted:

He's running, only question is when. You don't lay down $30 mil of your own cash for improving the IL Governor's Mansion and lobbying the state lege for northing.

Ask a statehouse reporter, Chicago journalist, or anyone who shares a board position with Diane--Bruce wants the White House, and he's willing to work with Democrats to win it. Christy without the bloat and mob ties, if you will.

Just because someone "wants" the White House doesn't mean they're a credible candidate. See Huntsman, Pawlenty, Kaisch, etc.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Tao Jones posted:

Christie's an interesting choice, but I don't think Republican voters have forgiven him for turning to Obama during Hurricane Sandy yet. It might happen, maybe, but I think people outside of NJ would need more time to get to know him.

Actually, probably better that they don't get to know him? The more I hear about him, the less likable he seems. If he can craft a persona and sell it to the nation, that might be something, but it's too hard to bury all the petty, bad, embarrassing stuff. Although supposedly Ailes was courting Christie heavily in 12, maybe he's still got that support?

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Joementum posted:

Remember that Bill Clinton and Gary Hart ran for President while having active extramarital affairs.

If you're running for President, your ego and ambition are already so large that these things don't factor in.

Also, apparently Nixon ran for president after taking bribes, committing treason, and spying on his opponents. And he was elected, twice! I guess if the (future) president does it, it wasn't illegal.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Nativity In Black posted:

Biden has a lot of natural charisma too.

Even if he doesn't win, having him in the primaries would be amazing.

He didn't do much in the 2008 primaries. Even Edwards had more traction than he did.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

A3th3r posted:

John Edwards' '08 campaign imploded because he was caught in an affair with a female staffer.

And yet he still did better than Biden, is the issue. Someone else thought Biden was running for VP, I'm not convinced. He just got lucky Obama wanted someone pre-vetted. Edwards was running for VP by the time he conceded, but then, he was also going a little nuts according to Game Change.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

ToxicSlurpee posted:

There was no way either side was going to play the religion card last election. It was unspoken but if you watch there was basically a big non-aggression pact on every side when it came to religion.

Partially because no other candidate was strong on it (to the evangelical Protestants). If Romney goes nuclear on Huckabee, I'd expect to see something in response denigrating Mormons as not understanding "true" Christian values or whatever.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

My Imaginary GF posted:

Which are, what? The centrists positions that Romney is staking out for himself rhetorically? Running for office from the left allows Romney to play up mormonism as more compasionate than Huckabee's religion, selling it as a more benign catholicism.

No idea, not a theologian. But the flavor of the religion matters a lot more than you'd think while sittinv on your liberal ivory tower. Many evangelicals are going to jump at a chance to vote for own of their own, especially if he starts pushing that difference. Whike nobody did in 2012 because it was a catholic and a mormon competing for those vites, if Romney takes the gloves of wrt Huckabee, I wouldn't be surprised to see a religious themed retaliation. Those "values" don't need to be defined precisely.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

FlamingLiberal posted:

It will never cease to crack me up with how Trump and Palin continue to troll their own party and bilk them for cash.

Honestly, it's more the little guy getting fleeced by Palin. The party is getting fleeced by a higher class of grifter, like Karl Rove. How much did he walk away with in 2012?

sullat
Jan 9, 2012
I think the basically Cruz insisted that the Senate remain open an extra day so that everyone could stay and hear his musings on the latest Obamatrocity, and Reid took the opportunity to activate voting mode when all the Senators were still in town. Otherwise they would have just gone home, because the Senate has a weird schedule. Like 4 10s, except 3 4s.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Three Olives posted:

Rand Paul would have to give up his senate seat to run for president, even Rand Paul is not stupid enough to do that.

Like Senator McCain did? Or Senators Obama and Biden?

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

ErIog posted:

Kentucky state law won't allow you to be on the ballot twice in that situation. Rand needs a state law passed in order to allow him to keep his senate seat while running, and the GOP-controlled state legislature hates his guts. They already told him to get bent about a year ago when he asked nicely if they'd pass the law for him.

That's why Rand running is such an interesting question. If he gives up his senate seat while running for president then we know for certain he's not a grifter in the same ilk as his father just using the GOP primary to drum up his national fundraising.

Haha! Did not know that. Fair play, Kentucky. So he's got to wait until the Senate race and the presidential race are not aligned.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Captain_Maclaine posted:

I imagine he did it the same way other creationists with advanced degrees manage it: compartmentalized memorization that they do their best to forget as soon as they've got the degree.

Biology and anatomy don't require buying into evolution, all you need is to say the good lord connected the foot bone to the leg bone and proceed from there.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Gyges posted:

But who's best all time? VPs bumped up to Pres can not count Presidential performance for or against their VP rating.

John C. Calhoun. Such a good VP, he got chosen a second time!

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

The Bunk posted:

I see two bald men with white mustaches and bushy eyebrows kissing.

You're just seeing what you want to see.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012
Hopefully we'll at least get Trollmney on twitter feuding with Trollbama now.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

radical meme posted:

If they spend that much and still lose in 2016, my bet is that will be the last election cycle where that kind of money is thrown around by one group. How can they possibly justify that kind of money in a loss? Plus, Adelson and the Kochs are not getting any younger; I doubt that their kids/legatees have the same appetite for politics.

The Kochs, at least, are beholden to nobody. That's the beauty of private wealth, no shareholders or trustees to answer to.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

FlamingLiberal posted:

They've achieved most of their legislative success by buying seats in state legislatures or lower-level Congressional races. It's been a bottom up thing, which does not bode well for the future.

At least state legislatures are cheaper to buy. Although they seem to be the highest bidders these days.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012
The optomolagy board thing is amusing, but not damning. I would be annoyed if, say, the state board exempted older tax preparers from their CEs. But I'm lazy and not a self-starter and wouldn't form my own board.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

My Imaginary GF posted:

You know who else doesn't vaccinate their kids?

The Taliban. How can America trust Rand Paul to lead if he continues to ally himself with terrorists? Is Senator 'Aqua Buddha' even Christian?

This message brought to you by Huck '16

Counterpoint: you know who did vaccinate his kids? And suffered adverse health effects from doing so? Osama Bin Laden. Why exactly does Obama want to vaccinate your children?

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

New York Times posted:

An executive order Mr. Christie signed in 2010 allows New Jersey governors to have travel and related expenses paid by foreign governments

Apparently it's not illegal!

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sullat
Jan 9, 2012

FAUXTON posted:

I can't understand why conservatives would be anti-vaccine. If anything they should be pro-vaccine with extra boosters for everyone since autism is how mises.org keeps their lights on.

IIRC, Rick Perry changed positions to pro-vaccines once the check from big Pharma cleared. So they can be persuaded.

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