TRUMP: holy FUCK its november 8th

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tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Bass Bottles posted:

Rubio is almost as obnoxious as Cruz and I'm sad it looks like he'll become the nominee.

Luckily this won't be for 4-8 years.

# ¿ Feb 1, 2016 21:39

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# ¿ May 10, 2024 09:29

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

Bold Prediction: If Trump wins Iowa tonight, he'll be the nominee. If not, he won't.

Just ask Santorum how well wing iowa works out.

# ¿ Feb 1, 2016 21:41

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Samurai Sanders posted:

Do Iowans really understand the vast power over elections they have been given, and for no good reason that I know of?

The thing is the power of being first is overstated. On the Republican side there doesn't seem to be much evidence it influences the eventual outcome because it favors religious conservatives. If a candidate is not significantly Evangelical but still wins it's a good signaling mechanism, but overall the influence on later events doesn't appear isn't significant. Likewise on the Democratic side you have the obvious example of Obama's victory in Iowa followed by a defeat in New Hampshire.

It's important to win at least one early state, but which one doesn't appear particularly important, is what I draw from the data.

# ¿ Feb 2, 2016 00:09

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Naet posted:

Dennis Prager is also defending Rubio. He admitted that Rubio sounded repetitive but then said, "You know, if he had just said, 'Let me repeat myself,' it would've been fine." And then he criticized Chris Christie of being the actual repetitive, robotic candidate with his constant mentions of being a prosecutor.

So, it sounds like the talkers are dispelling with this fiction...

It ain't working, trump is going to crush in nh and is on the upswing. It's quickly becoming his nomination to lose again.

# ¿ Feb 8, 2016 19:12

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Schnorkles posted:

This is actually the thing that gives me pause about making any pronounced statements about Trump.

I feel like you can say that his ground game is terrible and that is almost certainly true, but the fact of the matter is that he turned out an enormous number of people to vote. If his cult of personality is that strong, he absolutely can do a lot of damage in a crowded field. If Rubio or another person can't consolidate the establishment very soon, super tuesday is going to be an abject bloodbath.

Yea trump will probably win it then, the problem with the not trump argument is that everyone else's path to nomination is even worse.

Also trump has been paying attention and has been a lot more "serious candidate" lately. A lot of the establishment anti trump arguments are beginning to ring hollow and will be increasingly harder to make if he has big wins in the next three.

# ¿ Feb 8, 2016 19:17

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Joementum posted:

Meanwhile, Marco Rubio was endorsed this afternoon by Sam Brownback, which makes perfect sense considering his tax plan.

It's the first time a Governor has endorsed Marco.

Looks like his 3 5 9 11 6 2 1 strat is already paying dividends.

# ¿ Feb 15, 2016 22:04

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Zelder posted:

How does Nate Silver's tracker mark an anti-endorsement by the pope?

*throws dart*

# ¿ Feb 18, 2016 18:51

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

evilweasel posted:

are you familiar with the concept of excommunication, it's an official power of the pope to not just declare someone is unchristian but that they're going to hell

No, just uncatholic actually.

# ¿ Feb 18, 2016 19:52

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

TheTatteredKing posted:

I think the Iraq flip flop will be important if he tries to hit Hilary on it. It's now very easy to say "we were all caught up in the confusion and emotion and got bamboozled, you included."

Hrc would have to be incredibly incompetent to try and sell that. She would get schlonged.

# ¿ Feb 19, 2016 17:44

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Phlegmish posted:

I'm still baffled at how he tried to own a Republican candidate by claiming said candidate doesn't speak Spanish.

I call this the trump effect, they are cargo cult copying him and failing badly.

Someone asked earlier why it seems like Rubio is throwing the race. Like I've been saying a while, he's greasing the wheels for a future real run, getting the nomination and inevitably losing would be a really dumb move given how young he is.

Also the people who think he's the republicans best shot simply aren't paying close enough attention, he'd be eviscerated this cycle under close examination. He is almost entirely media spin, the emperor has no clothes.

Meanwhile trump has survived an absolute onslaught from every angle and is still destroying polls. He could still lose but the people who don't think he's the clear frontrunner at this point are completely delusional. Ron Paul supporter levels of insanity.

# ¿ Feb 19, 2016 21:44

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

For all the idiotic 'trump has 0 chance' nonsense, he will most likely finish this up quicker than romney, lmao.

# ¿ Feb 23, 2016 22:05

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Apples McGrind posted:

This is probably total bullshit, but I haven't seen it posted yet so...

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1976718-university-professor-says-statistical-model-shows-donald-trump-will-win-presidency-if-nominated/

It should be noted I can't find any actual data or the model itself. Also, extrapolating data from previous elections to predict those same previous elections is stupid as gently caress.

Not really actually. Used in machine learning fairly frequently to help in model building.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2016 18:10

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Platystemon posted:

Yeah, but they have muchlarger data sets.

There haven’t been all that many presidential elections, which is how you end up with things like the Redskins Rule holding for sixty years.

With a serious model, there are issues of changing political landscape. A model that’s based only data from the last few decades is liable to have more predictive power than a model that is correct back to 1912. The latter screams overfitting.

Correct.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2016 18:22

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

pathetic little tramp posted:

As someone who didn't read this thread last night and only saw some debate highlights on the news afterward, I can say the narrative that seems to be coalescing is that Rubio has gone completely insane out of desperation. He was on the news radio this morning shrieking about Trump Vodka and the audience seemed genuinely uninterested and you could actually somehow hear the pity in their silence.

I think ru bio is on an amphetamine driven mania right now. Notice how he oscillate s between high energy and then crashes every other week? The constant water drinking?

# ¿ Feb 26, 2016 18:25

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Oh man the gay bomb? Well we all knew this was coming.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2016 18:26

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

TyrantWD posted:

Rubio has had this line of attack planned for a while. He couldn't have unleashed on Trump at earlier debates where he would be blowing through his ammunition only for Trump to turn around and punch Jeb in the nose and come out of the winner.

People say that Rubio waited too long, but I think the timing is perfect. If he went nuclear on Trump 2 weeks, or a month ago, Trump would have had time to recover and shift the debate towards some new crazy idea like slave labor for able bodied adults below the poverty line. Now Trump has no time to change the media narrative, and has to just hope that his support is unwavering in the face of a stumping. If Roboto's attack protocol doesn't have a significant effect on Super Tuesday, there is nothing else the party can do to keep Trump from winning.

Nah

# ¿ Feb 26, 2016 18:34

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

You don't launch an attack days before st when you that far behind,4 days over a weekend won't do poo poo.

I think people who follow this poo poo too much forget the average person doesn't even watch the debates.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2016 18:40

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

# ¿ Feb 26, 2016 18:40

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

The reason people wanted Rubio was because he didn't do this playground poo poo.

MaxxBot posted:

I had always assumed that debates never amounted to much but the Rubio/Christie thing seems to have done something. I think Trump would have to really, really melt down bad for it to hurt him though since the whole GWB 9/11 thing seems to have done nothing.

The problem was that even though he drew blood the overall takeaway was that it was a poo poo show that no one won.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2016 18:46

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Mitt Romney posted:

I wonder if this will trigger Romney to endorse Rubio now? Even though it's been leaked.

Lol who gives a gently caress about romney

# ¿ Feb 26, 2016 19:27

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Majorian posted:

I'm not so sure they needed to create a new narrative to kneecap Trump early on, though. There's plenty of shady dealing that he's been involved with over the years, including but not limited to outsourcing jobs in the 90's and 2000's. It's amazing to me that that line of attack so little use.

It doesn't matter, no one gives a gently caress. Trying to romney him will never work.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2016 12:37

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Spatula City posted:

It's so terrifying seeing apparently intelligent young people unironically parroting dumb Trump talking points. But it just goes to prove one of my core bits of life philosophy, which is that being intelligent does not in fact inoculate someone from belief in staggeringly moronic nonsense, and in fact may leave them vulnerable to particular types of it. Like how anarcho-capitalism appeals to a bunch of otherwise brilliant college students, or how a lot of dominionists are actually quite smart people. Intelligence can be, and often is put to service for moronic ideas. If an intelligent person takes their own intelligence as a sign of their superior ability in seeking out the truth, they're probably gonna roll around in the poop, metaphorically speaking.
It takes humility, self-awareness, and empathy to avoid being suckered into a chronically stupid set of ideas; Trump supporters lack all three, as we've seen in this very thread, with people like Saurus and Boosted showing their total disinterest in the value and basic human dignity of people that are not like them. Which is more than just psychopathic - it's stupid. and I don't care that this might not be an effective line against the Trumpeters, who revel in their cosmic denseness. I just want to take the opportunity to state my unfiltered opinion of these people, because they're exhausting. They were amusing before, but the reaction to what happened in Chicago and to Trump's incitement to violence shows just how ugly they are on a moral level. This is not funny anymore, people, it's horrifying. It shows that at least a solid 25% of the American voting body are loving barbarians. My mother always said the percentage of the population that are irredeemable assholes is around 15%, but nope, it's 25%, clearly. Now, they might have their reasons, and they might have been hosed over repeatedly by sociopathic free trade loving rich bastards in both parties, but that does not excuse what we've seen and heard from them, and it does not excuse their support of Trump. I don't care to compare Trump to Hitler or any other fascist, racist nationalist, or cult of personality. What matters is that he's a toxic, divisive figure that endorses the dumbest poo poo consistently. For every reasonable opinion he has, he has twenty batshit insane opinions. He wouldn't make America great again - look at what people are saying about him around the world. I mean, I know that the Trumpeters and Republicans in general have a bloody-minded unwillingness to factor in the opinions of the rest of the world, but it matters. We have to elect a leader the rest of the world will respect, and Trump is not that leader. They all think he's a loving clown, and he wouldn't prove them wrong. A world leader worthy of respect would not brag about their penis on national television. But I guess this sort of thing is part of the appeal for the Trumpeters. They want a candidate that shares their values, and Trump's gutter rhetoric confirms to them that he is their man. Still, they have no consideration for how Trump's rhetoric might come off to anyone else, and there we see the lack of awareness and the lack of empathy on full display. We say to them "don't you see how it might bother some people that Trump wants to institute a religious test on who's allowed to enter the country?" and they respond with something like "lol, Muslim-loving liberal". We ask about The Wall, and they repeat Trump's assertion that Mexico would pay for it, absent any rational reason why this would end up coming to pass. We point out his history of misogynistic and racist statements, and they say "gently caress PC". Like the whole PC thing wasn't a Rush Limbaugh talking point in the beginning, which of course it was, and it was never, ever about anything other than white men being upset about being unable to sexually harass women and say the n-word. Others have taken up the charge in response to a small group of idiot slacktivists with too much time on their hands and a poor understanding of what a microaggression is; they claim that these dumb kids are the real problem, in a classic instance of false equivalency. Yet the number of what have been termed "SJWs" is dwarfed by the number of people frustrated that they have to say racist, sexist, and homophobic things in coded language, and even there may be called out. They could realize that saying hurtful and demeaning things about people for aspects that they have no control over is a thing assholes do, but they'd rather continue being assholes and whine about how their free speech is being suppressed. Maybe you could, I dunno, stop saying demeaning poo poo to people, and if you say something that someone finds insulting, have an honest conversation rather than getting defensive? Nah, that's clearly too much work. Easier to pretend you're the real victim, and this big bad PC culture is bullying you, telling you that you can't "tell it like it is" (and really, when has "tell it like it is" NOT been used to refer to someone shameless enough to say the offensive poo poo others are restrained from saying because they know the consequences?). It's endlessly depressing to me how many intelligent people adopt this anti-PC rhetoric. Maybe it's uncharitable to suggest that they all want to call women cunts. Some, I assume, are sincere free speech advocates. But those people should be aware of whom they're making common cause with, and it's an ugly group. It's amazing to me how it doesn't bother people when they make common cause with giant assholes. It bothers me that Richard Dawkins and Sam Harris are out there speaking for atheism, and that Cornel West and Al Sharpton are out there speaking about racial injustice. It doesn't mean that they don't have some valid points, but I won't defend the rear end in a top hat saying them or the excesses of their rhetoric. The most reasonable Trumpeters seem to have no compunction defending the worst among their brethren, and of course defending or brushing off the verbal diarrhea emitting from the mouth of their candidate.

Disclaimer: I am a former Bernout turned reluctant Clinton supporter, and a white male probably straight autistic atheist about to get a BA in Psychology, so this is pretty much throwing stones while living in a glass house.

TLDR - I can't stand Trump or his supporters anymore, and I don't really care if the SA Trump supporters are trolling, I prefer to think they're serious about being giant pricks. gently caress 'em.

Not sure whether to go for :horse:

here

# ¿ Mar 15, 2016 17:46

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Three Olives posted:

Do you know where American Soma is? It's a 32 hour commercial flight away from Columbus Ohio and has a population of 55,000. Trump's jet would have to make two stops for fuel and spend over 14 hours in the air alone to make it there. Fuel alone would cost over $50k.

Trump is not visiting American Soma.

Agreed, he will be visiting American samoa, not the place you made up.

# ¿ Mar 22, 2016 18:54

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Internet Webguy posted:

Polls are dumb as gently caress. Don't read them if you value your sanity. They are just to give pundits something benign to argue about.

-nate silver

# ¿ Jul 14, 2016 22:14

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Three Olives posted:

It's going to be so funny when Pokemon sues Trump for copyright infringement.

Parody

# ¿ Jul 14, 2016 22:20

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

wonder if the RNC bump will get him above 50%, assuming the RNC isnt an insane mess.

i was pretty sure trump was going to lose in a landslide but man is hillary just a terrible candidate

Like trumpNom, I predicted all of this like almost a year ago-- it was always going to be a close race and yes Hilldog is just hilariously bad at this. I have a real worry that she's going to handle polls showing her tied / losing to trump very poorly and make things worse. Besides that one of her biggest pluses, being able to point to his comments on immigration / the border, could evaporate overnight if this summer continues to have terrorist attack after terrorist attack. It's a threshold model, eventually a straw breaks the camels back and opinion shifts overnight.

Anyone who thinks Trump can't be elected simply has not been paying attention.

# ¿ Jul 14, 2016 23:44

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

zoux posted:

Well that France attack just buried the finale Trumps been setting up all day long

That's actually really good for him, too.

# ¿ Jul 14, 2016 23:46

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

misty mountaintop posted:

If I were the Clinton camp I would be tossing around the idea of only focusing on Pence between now and the end of the convention and completely ignoring anything Trump does. As a matter of fact, I'd consider starting rumors right now that Pence is really the one pulling the strings because everyone knows that Trump doesn't know what he's doing.

clintons bad at this but she's not that stupid

# ¿ Jul 16, 2016 18:46

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

MadJackal posted:

Brutal.

I love Warren as attack dog.

nobody cares though

# ¿ Jul 17, 2016 18:48

tsa: Feb 3, 2014

Slate Action posted:

The only thing that's moved the poll numbers since May is the emails (which shifted some of the support from Clinton to 'other'). No evidence yet that shootings or terror are actually helping Trump.

lol if you believe this

# ¿ Jul 17, 2016 18:59