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dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

I know it's probably a little early for this, but I'm looking at the Dem field for the first time since the 2014 midterms were settled and I'm thinking it's kind of weird. I don't think Clinton is as "inevitable" as everyone says, and some of the GOP folks, despite being pants on head crazy, seem viable.

My biggest worry is President Rand but in a primary with people like Dr. Carson I don't see him winning any of their beloved straw polls anytime soon

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dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

When're the first debates?

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Joementum posted:

RNC sanctioned debate schedule:

1. Fox News, August 2015, Ohio
2. CNN, September 2015, California
3. CNBC, October 2015, Colorado
4. Fox Business, November 2015, Wisconsin
5. CNN, December 2015, Nevada
6. Fox News, January 2016, Iowa
7. ABC News, February 2016, New Hampshire
8. CBS News, February 2016, South Carolina
9. NBC/Telemundo, February 2016, Florida

Three additional debates are pending: A Fox News debate in March 2016, a CNN debate in March 2016 and a conservative media debate.

No MSNBC debates, quelle surprise!

9 debates and change on the GOP side alone?? Oh god I'm rock loving hard right now

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Are there any interesting and strong candidates gearing up for a run in the Democrat side? Is there a DNC approved debate schedule yet?

One of my worst nightmares is that Hillary will mount a campaign similar to hers in 2008, mostly center right with few actual leftist policies, cruise to re-election in a sleepy primary, generating a minimal amount of noise and interest from both the Democratic base and the world at large. Am I off the mark? Somehow I don't even think Bernie Sanders will even hit the numbers needed to get into the debates.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Joementum posted:

I'm reminded of the meeting in 2012 between Gingrich and Santorum where they tried to form a unity ticket to take out Mitt, but it all fell apart because they couldn't agree on who got to be President.

Oh my god, I forgot about that. The amount of ego you need to have in order to even go through the motions of filing a run for president is truly insane.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqdNe8u-Jsg

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6AlQiWatD4

Did this get posted yet? It's from CNN

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Joementum posted:

So far it's the standard Ted Cruz stump speech.

Yes, the story of his father abandoning him until he discovered Jesus is part of his stump speech.

eta: the kids who wore their Stand with Rand t-shirts to this are my everything :swoon:

where can I watch this?

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

lol saying "100,000 in student loans" as if 100,000 is a lot by today's standards

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

This last stretch of the speech strikes me as coming from a dude who hasn't even perused an article from The Economist in a doctor's waiting room

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

"Imagine a flat tax, with no deductions, which by default, would raise taxes on the blind and handicapped!"

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

One day, all members of our generation will look to each other and ask where we were during Ted Cruz's famous "Instead, Imagine" speech.

We'll all remember fondly.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Who is this lady saying "that's horrible?" after every thing Ted Cruz says?

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Three Olives posted:

What happens with the flat tax idea when we start talking about things like the mortgage interest deduction? Cain never got far enough to explain how middle class people would hate the flat tax, right?

The economists were just beginning to set in with the "actually, you kind of need deductions" at that time I think

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

"We" tore the Berlin Wall down? Ummmmmm....

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Joementum posted:

Cain actually did explain that he'd do away with that deduction, but he'd keep the charitable contribution deduction, which makes no sense, but whatever.

Of course, Cruz's plan would run into the issue that there'd be nobody to process the flat tax postcards because he also wants to abolish the IRS, but pay no attention to any of that Ted Cruz 2016.

Imagine, no taxes at all!! 0% taxes! Ted Cruz 2016!!!

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Whoa, almost said "lovers" there! Careful, Cruz.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

What the hell is this awful song? Feels like I'm buying groceries.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Joementum posted:

Thank goodness they rehearsed this part. :sweatdrop:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTKmjhJ1__o

Top comment:



:wtc:

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

a shameful boehner posted:

Yeah, NAFTA was a colossally bad deal for workers throughout the western hemisphere and strongly contributed to the race to the bottom that's been going on the last 30 years. It's one of the worst things the Democrats did in the 90s.

Do you have a link to further reading on this?

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Who else is even left in the "might announce" column? Trump and...?

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Is it just me, or is the GOP field kind of... Crowded this year? Like, this has gotta be near historic for how many people are going to be running for a modern, mainstream election, no?

Every time someone else announces, I get slightly excited to drink my way through the debates.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Anyone got that graph from 2012 that shows all the ridiculous contenders enjoying the thrill of the not-Romney bump before fading into obscurity? Some people are talking up Trump's recent boost in the polls a bit too much (not to mention Bernie's) and need to be disabused of their capacity to move forward in this election.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Joementum posted:

The "not-Romney" bounces were cycles of a candidate having a nice media event (Cain winning the FL straw poll, Bachmann winning the IA straw poll, Gingrich being snarky in a debate, Santorum surging in a flawed CNN poll) followed by a couple weeks of them surging in the polls, which led to media scrutiny and occasionally negative advertising from Romney, which led to their downfall. This is well described in the chapter on the GOP nomination from The Gamble.

Trump's "surge" will be different because there's no need for media scrutiny. Unlike Rick Santorum, everyone in America already knows who Donald Trump is and has a pretty good idea of his political agenda (brown people, he's against 'em!). He'll be more like Ron Paul: a fringe candidate with a ceiling of support somewhere around 10% who draws a cult following and gets more exposure than he deserves because of it. The frontrunners would be wise to form the same secret non-aggression pact with him that Romney did with the Pauls.

Thanks for digging up that poll. People who seriously think Trump will endure the rigors of a presidential campaign and become the nominee are naive about what this race actually will require from the winner. Even discussing the possibility is a waste of time, albeit entertaining.

That being said, there's a lingering question as to whether or not Trump is egotistical enough to make an independent run after (possible national humiliation) and pulling out. The first debate is August 6th, and it's GOP, so it's closer than we think. Marco Rubio is the smartest choice for the GOP IMHO but he needs to step it up a lot. The sad thing is that Trump has the strongest social media presence of any GOP candidate and that's kinda sad.

They have a lot of catching up to do on the social media front. It's gonna be a massive factor in this election

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Does anyone here see anything in the way of a gameplan for Trump? I watched his speech and it was pretty insightful. He mentioned being somewhat surprised by how well his take on border security took off, and now he's just running with it.

I don't think any of us here actually believes him to be sincere in running, but it's almost a satire of election year sloganeering in how quick he can rise to the top of an (admittedly weak) just by throwing some big numbers out there and chucking out red meat. I mean, he's clearly running to raise his "celebrity" profile, The Apprentice hasn't been a big show in years to the best of my knowledge, so what happens after he bows out? A consultancy position at Fox? I think he's just throwing whatever out there that he thinks will stick, especially in contrast to his much more liberal run in 2000 I believe it was.

Will he really run as an independent? Surely he couldn't have the gall. Right?

I mean, I personally believe him to be in it purely to get more twitter followers, but his "the outside world is our enemy! Kick out all the dangerous Mexicans" shtick is pretty dangerous and upsetting. I'm glad the debates are soon. It's just sad to me that a loud mouth bully with no real solutions and deep pockets, who knows all the red meat buttons to press, can do predictably manipulate the Republican base.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

The GOP has long lusted for a candidate like Trump. The proto fascist, nakedly oligarchal, bullying, constant red meat, Putin lite styling of Trump has always been what they've wanted. For two elections now they think they've lost for being too soft, too moderate, too middle of the road. They want a CPAC panelist, a conservative Facebook meme page given human form, policy be damned.

The meaner he gets, the more bullying he gets, the more people will see him as "honest" and "speaking from his heart," totally the Christie game plan, only properly executed. Trump's got a cult of personality around him that will be hard to pierce and the smarter candidates will take shots at him to further establish themselves and bring him down, leading to an unprecedented mudslinging bloodbath. If any of these dopes are smart at all they'll bring up Trump's past campaigns, ran along much more liberal lines.

The full debate list gets revealed the 4th. I really hope Christie is on it. This latest trend of having to say the absolute most outrageous red meat comments possible to even get noticed in a historically crowded field of 17 candidates seems like it can only work to undermine whichever candidate comes forward as the eventual nominee.

I literally cannot wait for Thursday.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

When is this loving debate? I'm in EST and will be in permanent half chub until it's on. Jesus Christ WHY IS THIS DEBATE SO PERFECT? Donald Trump is a credible front runner and everyone has to attack him to distinguish themselves. I'm crying.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Any update as to whether or not Bernie was able to successfully push for more debates? The relative lack of democratic debates when they're smashing rating records (albeit because Trump) on the GOP side seems like somewhat of an oversight.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Is anyone running a sadder campaign than him? John Gilmore maybe?

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

If Trump wins even a single contest it makes any actually viable candidate's path to the White House that much harder and reflects poorly on the GOP. Hence, I just bought a hat.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhqUk28OwHs

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Joementum posted:

"Is there anyone in this room who doesn't negotiate deals? Probably more than any other room I've spoken to."

:tinfoil:

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

God I can't wait until at least Iowa is behind us. Every page it's chicken little bullshit about Trump. I'd be surprised if he even won a single contest, and if he does, it's an implicit condemnation of the Republican party, and it makes Hillary/Bernie's election path that much easier.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

I can't wait till people have actually voted so that all this inane horse trading bullshit has substance to it.

Isn't there a debate on January 3rd?

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

At this point I feel like it's because of the concern that his people don't/won't vote.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

I hope Trump becomes the nominee because he is unelectable and the Republican party may learn a good lesson from his defeat. How can I help make him the nominee?

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Any polls showing anyone leading as we head into Nevada? A Trump win tonight would be delicious. As delicious as a Trump Steak.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyONt_ZH_aw

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Tonight is gonna be loving delicious.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

What if Trump is arrogant enough to nominate Christie to be his VP??

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dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Joementum posted:

Will have a more precise count later in the day, but Trump clearly leads the delegate count after Super Tuesday so, as promised: there is a chance that Donald Trump will be the nominee of the Republican Party. In fact, it's quite likely!

And bizarrely now, the best strategy to stop him is for all of his remaining opponents to keep running.

Do you think there will be a down-ballot impact of Trump? Whether positive (encouraging more lovable racist kooks to run) or negative (Donald Trump at the top of the R side? Eugh, my God)?

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