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Joementum posted:I think he could have won the nomination in 2012, but 2016 is going to be much more competitive and his record isn't as recent or as impressive (to Republicans) as the other Governors who'll be trying. I think he could easily come in and be the establishment candidate. I don't think he can come in and be the Not-X candidate because there's already a clown car of potential candidates salivating at being the next Herman Cain.
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Nov 12, 2014 17:26
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De Nomolos posted:I'm actually in VA now (I've moved back and forth). Are you an elected official at the local, state, or federal level? Are you employed by the city/county/state due to a political appointment? Do you seemingly switch between government offices and campaign work, based on which candidate you worked for actually won? In these cases, you have a good chance of being part of your state delegation. At the very least, your chances improve beyond "almost zero" if you run and are elected as a precinct committeeman.
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Nov 14, 2014 05:57
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Trabisnikof posted:Does the convention city have a chance to help a party anymore or only hurt? It has almost no effect at all. The 2012 DNC took place in North Carolina where Obama ended up losing, and the RNC was in Florida which went for Obama. There's been several conventions in cities on both sides where the state is so blue/red it wouldn't matter. I think 2004's RNC was in New York and the DNC was in Boston, both solid blue states for POTUS that might sometimes elect Republicans to the US Senate or state-wide office. And because the national conventions are losing some federal money for security, conventions will be much more decided on which city will toss the most money at them rather than stuff about the electoral benefits. Think of it as like the Nerd Superbowl, because that's what it is. Which is why I'm surprised Indianapolis isn't in the running for either because man, we love burning huge piles of money for the NFL so why can't we do the same for political nerds.
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Nov 24, 2014 20:32
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Nintendo Kid posted:"Ivy League" has name recognition, alongside a few non-Ivies like MIT. Most other colleges are primarily known for sports programs or simply because they're the best in your home state, but "Harvard" and "Princeton" and "Yale" etc are certainly schools with a very high reputation. I think it can certainly be used against a candidate if they don't poll well. Maybe not specifically Ivy League, but of being aloof and not able to relate to people. Which you can certainly manage to do without an Ivy League education too. Just think of that professor you had in college that INSISTED on being called Doctor because he had a PhD. How well do you think he'd poll in a political race? Of course most people who make it to the level of being nominated by a major political party for POTUS don't have that challenge. But it can certainly happen in US House, Senate, and state level races.
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Nov 24, 2014 20:47
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In his State of the State address, Indiana Governor Mike Pence has called for a "Balanced Budget Amendment" to the State Constitution. Indiana's actual constitution actually kind of already prohibits it (Article 10, Section 5) but that isn't going to produce any headlines for someone who wants to run for President.
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Jan 14, 2015 03:13
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Cliff Racer posted:Actually, how old is he now anyway? He was governor back in the 80s. He was a Senator from Tennessee elected in 1984 and 1990.
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Mar 16, 2015 03:53
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Venom Snake posted:How big of a melt down would there be if a democrat won in 2016 with only the electoral majority, not the popular majority? It'd be really hard to pull off just due to how few states actually allocate electors proportionally.
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Mar 22, 2015 00:43
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I wouldn't count out any Governor who won their re-election bid unless they've already declined. The only current GOP governor who I don't think will run and if he does, will fold quickly, is my Governor, Pence. Dude was supposed to be nearly uncontested in 2012 and Indiana went 56% or something like that for Romney. Pence ran against a Dem candidate with some horrible, joke campaign ads but closed the deal near the end within 3 points so Pence only won with 49.2% of the vote.
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Mar 25, 2015 16:24
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PupsOfWar posted:I used to think pence was a viable candidate until I looked and saw how chubby he's gotten since he was in congress I think Pence wants to run but he isn't making any of the obvious moves at this point. No exploratory committee, no totally-unconnected-PAC/Super PAC making staff decisions. He hasn't even really been going over to Iowa or New Hampshire that much. He did make a recent trip to Israel so maybe he's angling for a Veep nod? If a moderate is nominated he'd be a good pick to pacify the tea party out for blood.
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Mar 27, 2015 15:11
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Look Sir Droids posted:Why doesn't Evan Bayh run for governor? I know he hates the Senate, but it seems like being governor would remove most of the reasons he hated the Senate. He loves the Senate. He's a loving lobbyist.
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Mar 27, 2015 20:42
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Joementum posted:Rick Santorum visited Fort Campbell today to sign copies of his new book Bella's Gift. In the next GI bill, can we put some funding in there to open up some halfway decent restaurants on military bases? I mean cmon, loving Burger King?
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Mar 29, 2015 02:42
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Zwabu posted:The bolded part was more or less the core reasoning behind "unskewing" the 2012 polling and didn't turn out to be particularly valid then, I fail to see why it should be given any more credence now. I mean saying it is an Obama coalition, or rather Campaign Obama coalition 08, isn't a horrible theory. Obama won about 5 million less votes in 2012 than in 2008, but Romney only scored a million more votes than McCain. So there's about 4 million voters who voted in 08 but not in 12. And we also know that, despite the repeated press releases of OFA saying "we're not going away" between POTUS years they...pretty much did, so there was no energizing Obama voters or even sharing valuable voter information between OFA and Democratic campaigns. And now OFA is some kind of non-partisan organization all together so it is very possible that that information is completely inaccessible to future candidates.
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Mar 30, 2015 16:06
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How the gently caress can someone make "viral" videos for a living...on purpose? I thought the whole point of going viral is you never really know when some massive link bait site like HuffPost or whatever will pick it up so you never know which of your dozens of lovely rear end youtube videos will go viral, if at all.
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Apr 13, 2015 04:28
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Considering the Nixon win 4 years later and various Republican wins after, I think Goldwater's defeat has more to do with the JFK assassination than anything else. Goldwater ran a poor campaign, LBJ ran a good and dirty campaign and it paid off.
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Apr 18, 2015 21:58
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