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Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
His accusation in the presentation he was going to make today was even deeper: he said that, in top of protecting Iran the pact between them and the Argentine government would ensure an exchange of Argentine wheat shipments for Iranian oil. Argentina's been having serious issues with power generation and cheap oil would prove a pretty enticing prospect.

Argentina did not receive any Iranian oil shipments up to today, and foreign trade between both countries decreased in 2014.

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Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

hecko posted:

It used to be pretty fun to read the (supposedly) former SIDE agents forum, seprin.com.ar, to see what are the new conspiracies around the government and everything in the news but now It looks like they weren't loving around.

Those guys don't gently caress around, ever. Sometimes they're successful, that's the only difference. And the removal of the former head of intellgence (the "señor cinco") and replaced with a guy you could call Cristina Kirchner's right hand (Oscar Parrilli) didn't make anything but entice them to go full speed ahead with their ops.

In the meantime this is the information about the prosecutor's death. In a nutshell, nothing's ruled out but suicide looks very likely, with the body found blocking the bathroom door on the inside and no other possible access, and the gun seemingly having been fired by Nisman himself, still pending gunpowder-on-tissue check under microscope.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/179902/prosecutor-fein-no-third-party-in-death-of--nisman-forced-suicide-not-ruled-out

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

Markovnikov posted:

I don't think he was murdered really. He lived in one of the most secure ares in Buenos Aires (as in, any strange event would have been caught by a million security cameras), had police custody (which could be a good or bad thing here really), and from the data we've been getting so far it looks like a classic Sherlockian closed-room death. It does go to show that sometimes reality is stranger than fiction.

Not just police custody but the coast guard (the Naval Prefecture) as well. Strange as it sounds, that area is still legally a harbor and the Argentine coast guard has it under their watch.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

Azran posted:

Seriously though, I hope nothing happens to Pachter.

The guy's definitely overreacting. He didn't reveal anything different or out of place (like any clues suggesting a real conspiracy from the government) yet he says he fled because the government is out to get him? The whole connection journalism/spies in Argentina is by now a classic discussion. It's only now the general public is seeing how deep it is.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
She's referring to the possibility of an announcement of new judges being appointed to vacant positions outside of proper process (meaning "appointment under commission", replacing judges appointed by subrogation). Carrió argues that the president will push for this on her "State of the Union"-equivalent speech on Sunday, when she addresses Congress, and therefore moving ahead with a self-initiated coup due to the improper way of appointing these magistrates and naming judges that would favor the current national government with their rulings and specifically president Fernandez.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

Azran posted:

People who diss milanesa have no soul. Now, mate? I can understand.

Nothing but the truth, this.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

Yggdrassil posted:

Maybe next election, in 5 years, if Lousteau takes a shot at it... we could have an actual human being in there.

Sure, the day he stops disguising his supposed interest in social issues with the same economic recipes his "rivals" have for a solution, he may have a chance.

That, and avoid loving married, pregnant women. :gizz:

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

wateroverfire posted:

I don't think the city has had a new metro car or a track upgrade since the system was installed.

I voted against the current local city government but there are new cars in the A-line and Alstom Brazil is making and delivering more for the H-line soon. There's some other real improvements across the city that took serious investment like rain reservoirs and drains to prevent flooding. There could be more stuff but that doesn't mean we're just getting a coat of paint everywhere because of delayed investment.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

Yggdrassil posted:

Again, Ardennes: this is not about savings. It's not about scraping some part of the corporate subsidies. It's about taking the whole thing down.

All of it, no exceptions for any socially-vulnerable sectors? Mind you, residential energy subsidies are focused on the B.A. metro area so I'd love to see real impacts on revenue (re)distribution.

quote:

Today, we pay just a fraction of what people in the rest of the world pay in regards of energy. To give you an example; i'm living with two other people in my house currently. We have air con, TV, and all the middle class ammenities you would normally expect. We paid, last month, on our electricity bill, the equivalent in pesos to 8 U$S.
People SHOULD pay more.

There is a voluntary opt-out mechanism for these subsidies. Not many have put their money in their mouth. I still agree with the general concept of raising those rates for most.

quote:

It is murky indeed :(

I don't like it either, but on the two occasions where the current govt wanted to slash those subsidies, the backlash was huge. I wouldn't want to fall into a simplistic analysis of this situation.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

Markovnikov posted:

I still remember going to the local House of Coinage in Buenos Aires, and they had a section telling of a series of bills where they started chronologically with presidents of Argentina. Except due to inflation they had to keep printing higher denominations, and eventually ran out of presidents.

Nice tale but a bit exaggerated. We barely got to president Quintana from the beginning of the 20th century with the $500K Austral bill in... 1990 I guess?

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

hecko posted:

...and the $1000 Luca Prodan.

I could totally stand behind this.

Markovnikov, I'll have to go back to the Mint museum and see that. It was so long ago that I don't even remember what they told us there.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

Polidoro posted:

Holy poo poo, this is unwatchable

It's embarrassing even for Latin American standards. They're right now singing as if it was a loving Sao Paulo-Corinthians match.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
Upriver! The government reaction has been far from ideal, also. The mapuche community where Santiago Maldonado was supposedly refused the previous searches in that area (this has been contested and the area was already under search twice), now the coast guard (the Naval Prefecture, really) used tactical divers and a specialized K-9 water-trained corps.

The possible coverup in various levels of the Gendarmerie, including at least a few Ministry of Security officers, doesn't fare good for the minister.

Calling this a shitshow is an understatement.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

El Chingon posted:

so what's the deal with the lost submarine in Argentina? was it negligence on the poor state of the navy? Or the submarine was secretly carrying the invasion plans of Uruguay and the government is all :doh: about it?

All of the above (potentially).

In reality, lots of theorizing but no real clue beyond an explosive event very close to the last known registered position of ARA San Juan in November 15, and a few reports of repairs mismanagement, especially focused around the battery banks (it's a diesel-electric unit), which may have caused a hydrogen gas explosion after inadvertently getting in contact with some water, either from an exposed hull section or a snorkel failure.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

Dias posted:

If Argentina is anything like Brazil, and it is except it's worse at soccer, it being a solid case or not doesn't really matter, what matters is who's judging that process.

Well, the guy that asked for her to be locked up (although this has to go through a process to remove her immunity of arrest in the Senate because she's a senator now) just asked for his pension and will stop working from the very beginning of 2018. Gotta love (former) federal judge Bonadio.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
Welp, seems the Argentine government angered some middle-class people now (the only important people in the country, not those lousy protestors from today noon) with the pensions reform act, so now they're banging pots and pans in many cities and marching towards the Congress palace in the capital.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
Nothing's really gonna change, for a while. This law hides a trap: its actual results will be unknown until March. Any motions in court against it will be dismissed as abstract and any protests interpreted (spun, really) as yet another attempt by the opposition to create unrest against the government.

The real problem here, as usual, is the growing national debt and quasi-fiscal deficit. We'll be in a Greece-like situation in a relatively short time.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

Tony Sorete posted:

Welp, seems the Argentine government angered some middle-class people now (the only important people in the country, not those lousy protestors from today noon) with the pensions reform act, so now they're banging pots and pans in many cities and marching towards the Congress palace in the capital.

They're going at it again tonight, same spots as yesterday evening. Yesterday's protests lasted until the early morning when the pensions reform was approved... today at 7 AM.

Not casually, our Congress is again in session working on another act to reform certain aspects of our tax code.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

ArfJason posted:

Cant wait ti read clarins take on this

Read Natasha Niebeskikwiat's articles there. They keep pushing the same evidence that Judge Bonadio used to prosecute former prez Fernandez.

The lawyer of former Foreign Relations minister Hector Timerman (the guy's about to die from cancer btw) is quite a character: Graciana Peñafort isn't just tweeting her rear end off with her defendent's case now but was also jumped to the public knowledge with her participation as the attorney on behalf of the Argentine government during the Grupo Clarin offensive in the Supreme Court against the provisions of the former Media law.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
I can see all of that happening.

The current situation reminds me of the 80's and the 90's. There's a flurry of rumors about meetings with different people from the governing coalition, ministers and various consigliere (like publicist Jaime Duran Barba) over the last two days and they're completely redoing the structure of the national executive branch.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
Bring back the Argentino, like our greatest caudillo and president Adolfo Rodriguez Saa envisioned:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_argentino#Planned_currency

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:

Argentine peso opens down 3.34 pct; hits record low vs dollar - traders


Hyperinflation, price controls, and protests against an unpopular and most likely corrupt regime. Surely the United States will be rushing in any minute now to anoint a charismatic opposition leader the real president of argentina.

It would be good that you informed yourself before leaping to lovely conclusions. Macri still has support from the USA, the IMF and the World Bank, which are the reasons why the crisis is worsening. And we're not near hyperinflation by at least two orders of magnitude: CPI is raising at an unbearable rate of 54% YoY by now.

There are supposed to be some utilities price increases frozen after a (very limited) relief program including 60 or so basic food products, frozen prepaid card rates for mobile phones and a few other lovely measures with limited impact. The reality is that, despite the overinflated foreign currency reserves in the Argentine Central Bank (fed by the IMF own loans and a currency swap agreement with the Bank of China), history tells you that, whenever a bank run happens, those reserves will evaporate.

And the leading opposition leader (yeah, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner) is nowhere near a favorite of the American state, and the feeling is mutual. Pretty sure they'd rather see her getting Lula'ed, although it's proving hard... those trials where she's being prosecuted have proof obtained through shady-as-gently caress methods. Even if she's really guilty, the likelihood of a mistrial is very high.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
No because it's going to be at least Argentine peso by a certain percentage. This is some pipe dream they had between the finance ministers Guedes and Dujovne that will never really happen because Macri is possibly on the way out and the Bolsonaro government is wtflol.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
I have some "friend of a friend" information that the Secretary of Energy is only beginning to confirm partially in the news, but it looks like the high-tension 500 kV line coming out of the huge Yacyretá-Salto Grande dam dropped because of the heavy storms we're having and it made all the safeguards in the interconnected national system cascade down and collapse when they detected the drop in frequency (we use 50 Hz here).

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/16/world/americas/power-failure-argentina-uruguay.html

quote:

The outage was caused by a failure in two separate 500,000 volt power lines in a corridor that takes power from the Yacyreta dam to Buenos Aires, according to a high-ranking government official. The cause of that failure remained unclear.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
Pretty lovely article, all around. No explanation given at the supposed negative populism of the Fernandezs while not even acknowledging Macri's own populist-like tactics in electoral years like liberally-available loans through public banks to pensioners and assistance programs recipients, subsidized purchases in installments of home appliances/furniture/clothing, raising the minimum wage in advance of the scheduled date...

And we have to believe that Menem's presidency made the country thrive? Unsurprising coming from the Wilson Center though.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
These are primaries though but participation is mandatory for all citizens. Two months of the worst lame duck ever, he didn't even technically lose but he did.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

Dek posted:

Vos decís que va a poder dar vuelta 15 puntos de diferencia?

Ni en pedo

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

ArfJason posted:

I mean internally we could do fine for a while, as long as we stop being dumbasses and produce properly. We have food, textiles, oil. Really the only things we dont have are high end tech and chemistry for pharmaecuticals, right? Outwards markets will definitely be a pain, and i hope the imf sanctions whoever allowed loans that were obviously unpayable but who even knows at this point

Argentina's pharma industry is pretty strong, we need bulk chemicals not from the country for it though

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
That's how long his commitments last. It's been happening since he was inaugurated.

The government is trapped in the ultimate catch-22: they can't do what they should do (actual measures protecting the consumer market, SMEs, the poor) lest they anger the shrinking electoral base and the IMF, nor they can continue in their pursuit of free markets (or whatever they were doing, because that didn't look like liberalism to me, more like cronysm supported by public works conglomerates) bringing everyone down on a race to the bottom.

Macri ain't a lame duck, he's a loving paraplegic duck.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock

Badger of Basra posted:

https://twitter.com/revistaanfibia/status/1162044945735344128?s=21

Saw this article and it made me wonder: does anyone in Argentina actually think there will be a “fernandismo”? I was assuming most people had no illusions about what the dynamic was going to be.

Analysts in Argentina are too eager to decree that each political group aligns completely behind a leader. You don't only have the obvious peronismo but also kirchnerismo, cristinismo for Cristina Kirchner, macrismo for Macri, carriotismo (???) for Carrió, lavagnismo (!?!) for Lavagna... The reality is that allegiances are as fluid as they are elsewhere and these are just shorthand for stupid articles. There's no clear cut, monolithic ideology or unrelenting acolytes behind any of these.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
Totally voluntary! We're just extending the term! No reduction in interest rates or accrued capital!

Sure, exactly like the 2001 megaswap. If it sounds like a porn movie it's because we were hosed hard.

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
Aaaaand it's gone:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-29/argentina-s-rating-cut-to-selective-default-by-s-p

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
Argentine foreign exchange capital controls are back. Mandatory preapprovals by Central Bank regulations to buy up to 10,000 dollars or equivalent in foreign currencies per person, per month. Also, mandatory sale of foreign currency in the local market for all exports, still pending a Central Bank ruling on how it will be implemented (possibly making the terms to sell dollars to the Central Bank in exchange for pesos much shorter).

Macri has backtracked almost entirely on what he did during his government with a worse country as a result.


E: lol FIVE DAYS for exporters to sell their dollars internally, that's brutal

Tony Sorete fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Sep 1, 2019

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
It really shouldn't but I don't think they even thought of such minutiae.

Reuters in English:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-economy-idUSKCN1VM1IH

Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
Yes, always. Those who accuse Peronism of being anything close to hard socialism/Marxist doctrine need to study a lot more Argentine history.

Some state economy planning affecting productive forces, including state-owned industries? Possibly, but nowhere near actual "planned economy" and way more like Western Europe during the 20th century.

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Tony Sorete
Jun 19, 2011

Manager de rock
This is exactly why Argentina is the best and worst country in the world.

Poll results are standing by but the advantage for the peronists is looming

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