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Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

i'm here for the Bay of Chuds

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Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

this one hit almost a mile away from PaP, somewhere near petit trou de nippes, and was much shallower. it will be nowhere near the grand catastrophe of 2010.

normally you could say of this incident that it is happening at a really bad time, with the fallout of the jovenel moise assassination and transition issues leaving the country in poor condition to respond to the disaster. but unfortunately, haiti is never not in a bad position to deal with this kind of crisis and the best output right now is to try to get international humanitarian campaigns running immediately

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

no hay camino posted:

France (or other Francophone areas).

wife said "they should abandon it to move to miami, create an independent province, and box the fresh & fit podcast guys daily till they cry" and i kind of don't disagree this is an effective nation building plan

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Covok posted:

I heard Boslanaro will attempt to overthrow the Brazilian government on the September 7th from a concerned friend in Brazil. Is that true?

the only real reason i can credit is that bolsonaro is increasingly beleaguered by the system and, being your average fascist dipshit, this is the part where they feel institutionally cornered and start trying to cash in the ground they hope they have made in various autocratic attempts* and seeing if it can translate to institutional overthrow if they go on the offensive

*as generally defined by Masha Gessen in their conversations/writings on stages of autocratic takeover of republics

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

no hay camino posted:

Wait what, provide examples of said writings please.

sorry i didn't see this till now. she wrote the book "Surviving Autocracy" and has said these things:

quote:

I have borrowed the term “autocratic attempt” from the work of Bálint Magyar, a Hungarian sociologist who set out to develop analytical tools for understanding the turn away from democracy in many Eastern and Central European countries. I have found Magyar’s ideas surprisingly illuminating when applied to the United States.

Magyar divides the autocrat’s journey into three stages: autocratic attempt, autocratic breakthrough, and autocratic consolidation. The attempt is a period when autocracy is still preventable, or reversible, by electoral means. When it is no longer possible to reverse autocracy peacefully, the autocratic breakthrough has occurred, because the very structures of government have been transformed and can no longer protect themselves. These changes usually include packing the constitutional court (the Supreme Court, in the case of the U.S.) with judges loyal to the autocrat; packing and weakening the courts in general; appointing a chief prosecutor (the Attorney General) who is loyal to the autocrat and will enforce the law selectively on his behalf; changing the rules on the appointment of civil servants; weakening local governments; unilaterally changing electoral rules (to accommodate gerrymandering, for instance); and changing the Constitution to expand the powers of the executive.

she crafted the book (and adapted the beliefs about autocratic attempts from Magyar) on three general planks of how to fight back against autocratic backslide:

- believe the autocrat

- do not be taken in by small signs of normality

and

- institutions will not save you

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Gran ravine has been setting neighborhoods on fire as they take territory. There will be a medical ship at jeremie december 11th to 17th and they need kreyol translators so it's suggested that diaspora check with their families for people who might be qualified and available

Gonna note that most countries including the US continue to be substantially reticent to engage in the occupational mission to haiti that henry is pushing for, for good reason imo, and when you encounter a different take like "the US can't wait to occupy haiti" please subject it to extra scrutiny because it may just be substantially rooted in bullshit

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Nucleic Acids posted:

The only intervention that might have actual humanitarian goals would something led by, like, Cuba.

guess I have to say for the record that this isn't true for the same reasons discussed last time when people were theorycrafting such amazing takes as "why not send the Swiss Guard??"

Don't throw absolutes like this into a discussion that needs more nuance and less of this obvious thing where the commentary centers ideological disfavor for America as the most important cause and makes Haiti or what is happening to people there an incidental topic heirarchically underneath that primary goal. You could have a humanitarian mission from the UN, or even one that could actually work, even if that's just improvement relative to the present condition in Haiti. The important questions are "what factors are making an intervention more or less likely as time goes on" and "what factors would have to go into effective aid to prevent it from mirroring the worst or most self-serving interventions of the past"

Right now I'm very partial to the conclusions on the Montana Accord but not completely, because I think their blueprint for reformed governance presumes too much instantaneous legitimacy over a domestic condition of gangs being the dominant force in most of the country.

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Jesus christ dude and here I was juuuust about ready to foolishly waste sincere time and real effort to your question right before that whopper edit

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

i fly airplanes posted:


By the way, neighboring Dominican Republic started deporting enmasse people suspected to be Haitian (black, obviously)

DR is back to using a genuine shibboleth ("perejil" with a trilled r) to round up Haitians when not just defaulting to skin tone lol

At least this time it's just crude deportation in abysmal concentration conditions, as opposed to how it went under Rafael Trujillo with the kout kouto

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Super fun milestone: the last actually elected officials in Haiti have departed their offices at the end of their terms! Meanwhile, Henry's constitutional term of mandate* is over a year expired!

*which additionally didn't technically exist in the first place

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

CameronisGod posted:

Things in Haiti do not seem to be getting any better and I don't see there being any form of stability or resolution their within my lifetime. It's going to sit besides Afghanistan and a few other nations like Sri Lanka and Pakistan as a failed state.

I wonder what the best kind of policy response we can have to the situation. It's best if we don't intervene, but there will still be thousands if not hundreds of thousands Haitians trying to immigrate to other countries who will likely attempt to use the funds they obtain in said countries to set up more criminal organizations within Haiti - as they did to murder the previous president.

There's a lot of little weird details feeding into what's making haiti extra haiti these days but it at least offers a handful of guesses into what could help recover the country, and they also have to do with understanding what has kept the good doctor henry from begging his way into a foreign intervention force ... SO FAR

i gotta get through his bullshit speech first so yeah

i didn't get any confirmation of this yet just some secondhand information but apparently MSF has suspended operation either in the PaP area or in the country as a whole, which is, you know, extra great and super awesome

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

SlothfulCobra posted:

Huh, I thought normally Unicode stuck to independent countries.

Excluding the English Caribbean makes sense, but then Suriname and Guyana are left in, and then Sint Maarten is counted, but not other Dutch islands like Aruba or Curacao.

I have plenty of solidarity with jamaicans in not having a loving clue why one of us might be considered a Latin American at any specific time and the other not, but it keeps happening

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Negostrike posted:

Yeah it's absolutely impossible it can get any worse, right?


...right?

laughs in 🇭🇹

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Google Jeb Bush posted:

he's been quite successful in suppressing it and, in fairness, it turns out the leadership weren't very smart either; people correctly make fun of guaido for becoming a caricature but they were losing steam as a serious coalition even before Maduro made his new """transitional""" better parliament with blackjack and hookers

venezuela is currently firmly a one party state and if you're really charitable it's in the sense where any actual politicking happens in the PSUV-and-friends primary

i figure the next step is Maduro/PSUV going "look, we got 70% of the vote and only banned one or two leading opposition candidates per race, what more do you want?!"

too bad we don't seem to have any venegoons still posting, alas

That's the part I always loved the most about Maduro is that the guy has got to be a high scorer for how unnecessary his work was to obliterate democracy and install himself as chief crazy yelling guy of the one party crimetocracy. he could have just done a few more subtle things and let his opposition fall on their dicks for a while

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

quote:

and also assume he's going to be moderated by whoever gets into the legislature

Ah, sounds familiar, i say, absentmindedly touching my own political scars and having vivid flashbacks

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

The argument being drafted up in War Discords across the internet as to why the proposed forceful annexation of land and oil resources by venezuela is vital anti-imperialist action and rallying point for the global left is already pretty rad and i expect it to keep getting radderer

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Gucci Loafers posted:

Are there any Latin American Countries that support or even remotely support Venezuela's actions?

Listened to three people pipe up about it who are living in the Contested Region and all of them said some variation of "we have no cultural demand to be venezuelan, we are connected to guyana culturally and economically, we don't like venezuela, like at all, and we aren't a silently seething pro-venezuela populace chained under some yoke crying for liberation. Uhh just thought we should get to saying that now because we just have a feeling a lot of people gonna start reinventing our story for us soon, just get that suspicion"

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

you see i am an anarcho capitalist because i believe in the most freedomest liberties. free freedoms to do what you please, that's what it's all about. this is an unshakeable ironclad core to my ideological tenets. free markets, free people. freedom, liberty

[gets in power] DISSENT IS PUNISHABLE BY REVOCATION OF CHILDREN. UNIONIZATION OF LABOR IS TREASON

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

mobby_6kl posted:

Haven't heard much about the Guyana situation, now it seems the UK is going to send a warship there

I don't think it's going to actually do anything other than the implication but that's a good idea

you say that now but it'll turn out they sent a cruise liner. basically a declaration of war against their whole navy

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Negostrike posted:

It makes his head perfectly round

Libertarian economics: "Assuming a completely frictionless Milei .."

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

i want some more of those dope rear end videos where Mr. Libertarian Freedoms Man President got stern announcements playing on every public speaker about how you gotta stay home and not protest otherwise your legal status will revert to 'meat' and your children will be abducted for re-education in the ancap tradition. ALL HAIL

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

at least maduro isn't so loving dumb he would actually do this, am i right guys? eh? don't even have to be concerned in the slightest. yup, nobody's that dumb so we can all stop worrying n

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Two relatives of mine are all like "unfettered capitalism would be the best solution for home" and were extremely pleased by the Milei win

So of course I have been stopping on by frequently to make sure to ask them about how Milei is doing and repeatedly say oH thATS interESting

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Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Prime Minister Henry: 0

A proto-warlord calling himself "Barbeque": 1

The score has been tallied and we welcome the new ruler of the south

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