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Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Why would Bolsonaro supporters storm the Chinese embassy? Covid conspiracy theorist thinking?

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Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/world/americas/chile-constitution-no.html

quote:

Now, Chile’s political establishment will have to decide the next steps, and it appeared that the broad rejection on Sunday had given Chile’s conservatives control.

“There is no question that the 1980 Constitution is dead,” said Isabel Allende, a leftist senator and the daughter of the former socialist president, Salvador Allende, who died by suicide in 1973 as Mr. Pinochet’s military coup was closing in on the presidential palace.

“The right has committed that, in the case that the proposal was rejected, there would be a new constitution,” she added. “So hopefully they keep their word.”

Ximena Rincón, a centrist senator who helped lead the campaign to reject the new charter, said in a speech to supporters: “We have a new opportunity, and we cannot miss it.”

According to the NY Times, it sounds like the conservatives get a shot.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
I know the BBC has its faults but they say some of the roadblocks have been cleared out.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-63451859

It's apparently kind of uncertain how bad those trucker protests might get?

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-famato-says-does-not-support-protestor-roadblocks-could-disrupt-2022-10-31/

It's very concerning that Bolsonaro hasn't conceded yet even though various allies have acknowledged reality. What is his likely gameplan now?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Has Cuba volunteered to lead a force? Haiti sounds like one of those situations where you end up having to hope for the “least horrible” option to prevail.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Cicero posted:

Would Cuba be capable? They're of a similar population size to Haiti, and while they're much better off development-wise, they're not exactly rich either.

I think Cuba has come up in the discussions in this thread because they're one of the few nations in the region that is (from what I can tell) not totally crippled right now and not very beholden to US influence.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
If Cuba is still too beholden to US influence, who should be in charge of any international effort to restore order in Haiti? I'm pretty sure China would not be interested.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
How much havoc is Milei going to cause in Argentina?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Aren't Milei's beliefs basically neoliberalism after a coke binge? He struck me as the choice of a bunch of people who think things can't get any worse because it's too depressing to realize that things can always get worse.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Mr. Nemo posted:

But what an amazing 10 year run!

People got tired of a bust and bust cycle, they are hoping for a boom. I don’t think anyone is actually hopeful og going back to Argentina’s heyday.

But yeah, dollarizatiom is probably an allure to “just” 10-15% of his base, he will probably change tone, because it really is impossible without doing idiotic stuff

And voting for the finance minister presiding over 50% poverty and 150-200% inflation the recipe for things getting better?

If Milei had a coherent platform, I suppose you could argue that maybe he'll bring a needed change, but it sounds like he's just going to hurt a lot of people and drive more people into poverty with fantastical ideas about cutting the parts of government he personally doesn't like. I don't really see how any of his ideas result in good outcomes.

It's ugly either way, but I'd be more inclined to stick with the devil I know. Maybe the low prospects for legislative-based change will just means this is a much needed scare for the other parties?

EDIT: I am assuming you guys know Argentina better than I do and have ideas on what Argentina needs to do to get better. It sounds like Milei, at best, offers paralysis as opposed to going forward with more of the same old stuff. Is that not the case?

Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Nov 20, 2023

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Elias_Maluco posted:

But in any case, Massa seems an incredibly bad choice to run against Miel and Im still baffled by the fact they could find anything better

How many people knew better than to try to run while being tied to the hyperinflation? I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of other people decided it was better to hold back and let some other sucker do all the unpopular stuff.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
When I visited Chile, my feeling was that there were enough right-leaning politicians and voters who thought Pinochet did the right thing that I don't think the Chilean military would have to step in like it did in 1973. The left would just lose at the ballot box, just like they did earlier this year in the Constitutional Council elections.

It wasn't like Allende was racking up authoritative margins the years leading up to the coup either. Chile had a pretty polarized and contentious political landscape.

This is anecdotal evidence and I'm not a Chile scholar, so I'm ready to get schooled here.

Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Nov 27, 2023

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

His Divine Shadow posted:

I tried googling my way to what ails argentina but mostly just heard it was the fault of the welfare state, capital controls and such.

Maybe there's at least some truth to all of that?

A neoliberalist approach might prevent certain other things (like their generous welfare state and enormous government job force) from being sustainable.

Generally, it seems like a big part of Argentinian history is a "curse of resources." When your country is so rich with commodities and the leaders do not wisely diversify from being a commodities seller and otherwise plan for downturns, you are especially vulnerable to the ebbs and flows of commodities pricing. I don't think it's a situation where just pressing the MORE SOCIALISM button fixes everything either.

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Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

VitalSigns posted:

Wow they actually voted to do to themselves what the IMF and the World Bank usually have to send the CIA in to force on people.

Or 51% of them did, I really feel for the other 49% who tried to stop this

This is what you get when people decide that they want change for the sake of change.

Maybe this is what Argentina needs and Milei will go down in history as the guy who was willing and able to sacrifice his long term political career to get a bunch of necessary changes made in the Argentinian economy, but who knows. Hopefully not too many people get hurt along the way.

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