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No it's not true of every int at all. For example, Sherman's deflection in the NFCCG last year
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Dec 4, 2014 08:27
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OneThousandMonkeys posted:Watching 29 go "Come on! What the gently caress!" is amazing. I should be upset because it was a potential INT and, even worse, #29 is our best corner and has had two torn Achilles in the past, but it's loving hilarious and I can't stop laughing.
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Dec 4, 2014 14:07
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Lol man is that the narrative now? Sherman ran the right route, Crabtree ran the wrong one? That sounds WAY more plausible than , oh I dunno, Kaep throwing off target for the 15th time that day.
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Dec 4, 2014 14:41
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DancingMachine posted:Eh, both Sherman INTs were bad decisions by Kaepernick, but isn't that true of every INT? He still ran the receiver's route for him in both cases, which is a pretty cool move. Kap threw to the spot the receiver was supposed to be and Sherman was there instead. No, it isn't true of every interception.
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Dec 4, 2014 14:47
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AAA DOLFAN posted:Lol man is that the narrative now? Sherman ran the right route, Crabtree ran the wrong one? That sounds WAY more plausible than , oh I dunno, Kaep throwing off target for the 15th time that day. Nah it's not the narrative so much as people being dumb and responding to AAC's trolling.
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Dec 4, 2014 15:06
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AAA DOLFAN posted:Lol man is that the narrative now? Sherman ran the right route, Crabtree ran the wrong one? That sounds WAY more plausible than , oh I dunno, Kaep throwing off target for the 15th time that day. Kaepernick is not good at his job and will be paid like a rookie because of it.
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Dec 4, 2014 16:06
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TubeStank posted:Nah it's not the narrative so much as people being dumb and responding to AAC's trolling. Honest question, if AAC isn't going to eat a ban for obvious trolling, why aren't we allowed to respond to his posts sincerely or at least make fun of them? I know we're not supposed to post about posters or some poo poo, but this is like 50% of TFF right now and it's frustrating to read.
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Dec 4, 2014 16:12
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Dancing machine was who I was responding to with that latest post, he said sherman ran the route. But yeah it's pretty clear cut he's here simply to troll but gets a pass. Happens I guess.
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Dec 4, 2014 16:46
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nobody ever banned him when he was vaginal culture why would anybody ban him when he gets a new name
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Dec 4, 2014 16:49
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Dirt Worshipper posted:Honest question, if AAC isn't going to eat a ban for obvious trolling, why aren't we allowed to respond to his posts sincerely or at least make fun of them? If only there were some sort of ignore button one could activate to block the posts of users they didn't like instead of bitching about it.....
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Dec 4, 2014 17:01
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Retail Slave posted:If only there were some sort of ignore button one could activate to block the posts of users they didn't like instead of bitching about it..... Dirt Worshipper is one of those inscrutable posters who only drops in to post about other posters' posting. He doesn't joke, he doesn't really post about the Niners. He drops in, complains, and disappears, like a really terrible batman. On the other hand his avatar is pretty cool.
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Dec 4, 2014 17:18
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i've seen dirt worshipper post more about football than i've seen chichevache post about football
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Dec 4, 2014 17:21
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I did not know Ryan Leaf was in jail.
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Dec 4, 2014 17:44
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Dirt Worshipper posted:Honest question, if AAC isn't going to eat a ban for obvious trolling, why aren't we allowed to respond to his posts sincerely or at least make fun of them? AAC doesn't say anything that's too out of bounds most of the time, he's pretty good at not crossing the line but is even better at making a bunch of you lose your poo poo over someone you know is trolling saying something mean about the football team you like It's honestly pretty hilarious to see him come in and say "Yeah Richard Sherman is the best CB in the NFL" followed by a bunch of "WHY WON'T YOU BAN THIS TROLL" replies
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Dec 4, 2014 17:45
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Bobo the Red posted:I did not know Ryan Leaf was in jail. breaking into people's houses to steal their prescription drugs is a hell of a thing
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Dec 4, 2014 17:45
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Chichevache posted:Dirt Worshipper is one of those inscrutable posters who only drops in to post about other posters' posting. He doesn't joke, he doesn't really post about the Niners. He drops in, complains, and disappears, like a really terrible batman. I lurk a lot because I'm really busy with work and school. You should try lurking more.
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Dec 4, 2014 17:45
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The discussion about DVOA and VOA after the Pats/Packers game (and its poor predictive performance over the past couple of years) caused me to look at some of their other stats for which they are somewhat more open with the formulae. The coefficients are all pretty round numbers, suggesting they came at least partially from an rear end-pull rather than analysis. Also, they do all their poo poo in Excel which is kind of lolworthy, especially given the snarky blob at the end of their weekly articles touting objective quantities uber alles. This has convinced me that their numbers aren't as useful as I had thought and that nobody on that site actually understands statistical signal processing very well, they're just pulling poo poo from a cookbook. Apologies that this wasn't about football very much. I should make my own itch-scratch moon power ranking thing over the summer.
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Dec 4, 2014 17:46
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Blotto Skorzany posted:The discussion about DVOA and VOA after the Pats/Packers game (and its poor predictive performance over the past couple of years) caused me to look at some of their other stats for which they are somewhat more open with the formulae. The coefficients are all pretty round numbers, suggesting they came at least partially from an rear end-pull rather than analysis. Also, they do all their poo poo in Excel which is kind of lolworthy, especially given the snarky blob at the end of their weekly articles touting objective quantities uber alles. This has convinced me that their numbers aren't as useful as I had thought and that nobody on that site actually understands statistical signal processing very well, they're just pulling poo poo from a cookbook. Apologies that this wasn't about football very much. I should make my own itch-scratch moon power ranking thing over the summer. NEEEEEEEEEEEER-actually that's kinda interesting
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Dec 4, 2014 17:47
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Blotto Skorzany posted:The discussion about DVOA and VOA after the Pats/Packers game (and its poor predictive performance over the past couple of years) caused me to look at some of their other stats for which they are somewhat more open with the formulae. The coefficients are all pretty round numbers, suggesting they came at least partially from an rear end-pull rather than analysis. Also, they do all their poo poo in Excel which is kind of lolworthy, especially given the snarky blob at the end of their weekly articles touting objective quantities uber alles. This has convinced me that their numbers aren't as useful as I had thought and that nobody on that site actually understands statistical signal processing very well, they're just pulling poo poo from a cookbook. Apologies that this wasn't about football very much. I should make my own itch-scratch moon power ranking thing over the summer. Listening to the guy who does these on the BS report (forget his name) he seemed like a middling IQ dullard trying to sound smart. Just throwing out words like regression etc. Of course they have to pretend its all valid to sell their product but it really is pulled from their rear end. Except when it says the Seahawks are the best then it is good science. That is a joke guys lol.
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Dec 4, 2014 17:51
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Bobo the Red posted:I did not know Ryan Leaf was in jail. Jets should give him a chance
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Dec 4, 2014 17:55
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Blotto Skorzany posted:The discussion about DVOA and VOA after the Pats/Packers game (and its poor predictive performance over the past couple of years) caused me to look at some of their other stats for which they are somewhat more open with the formulae. The coefficients are all pretty round numbers, suggesting they came at least partially from an rear end-pull rather than analysis. Also, they do all their poo poo in Excel which is kind of lolworthy, especially given the snarky blob at the end of their weekly articles touting objective quantities uber alles. This has convinced me that their numbers aren't as useful as I had thought and that nobody on that site actually understands statistical signal processing very well, they're just pulling poo poo from a cookbook. Apologies that this wasn't about football very much. I should make my own itch-scratch moon power ranking thing over the summer. Yeah I've soured on them over the past few years. Brian Burke's site (AdvancedNFLAnalytics) is p. solid though. I like the work he's doing over there, and it's both more rigorous in its approach and open in the methodology.
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Dec 4, 2014 17:56
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African AIDS cum posted:Listening to the guy who does these on the BS report (forget his name) he seemed like a middling IQ dullard trying to sound smart. Just throwing out words like regression etc. Of course they have to pretend its all valid to sell their product but it really is pulled from their rear end. Except when it says the Seahawks are the best then it is good science. That is a joke guys lol. Aaron Schaatz? He's a patriots homer and a retard which is why Simmons likes him so much.
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Dec 4, 2014 17:57
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Blotto Skorzany posted:The discussion about DVOA and VOA after the Pats/Packers game (and its poor predictive performance over the past couple of years) caused me to look at some of their other stats for which they are somewhat more open with the formulae. The coefficients are all pretty round numbers, suggesting they came at least partially from an rear end-pull rather than analysis. Also, they do all their poo poo in Excel which is kind of lolworthy, especially given the snarky blob at the end of their weekly articles touting objective quantities uber alles. This has convinced me that their numbers aren't as useful as I had thought and that nobody on that site actually understands statistical signal processing very well, they're just pulling poo poo from a cookbook. Apologies that this wasn't about football very much. I should make my own itch-scratch moon power ranking thing over the summer.
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Dec 4, 2014 18:00
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Plafop posted:Aaron Schaatz? He's a patriots homer and a retard which is why Simmons likes him so much. Yeah thats him, the most boring man to listen to in the entire world. Glad he hasn't been on recently.
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Dec 4, 2014 18:00
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Alouicious posted:breaking into people's houses to steal their prescription drugs is a hell of a thing He was a volunteer QB coach at West Texas A&M a few years ago mainly so he could hit up the players for their drugs, dude has problems.
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Dec 4, 2014 18:03
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Aaron Schatz loving sucks
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Dec 4, 2014 18:05
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The tide is turning on advanced stats, exposed as the fraud and lies they are, the emperor has no clothes and the eye test reigns supreme. This is a watershed moment.
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Dec 4, 2014 18:08
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African AIDS cum posted:Listening to the guy who does these on the BS report (forget his name) he seemed like a middling IQ dullard trying to sound smart. Just throwing out words like regression etc. Of course they have to pretend its all valid to sell their product but it really is pulled from their rear end. Except when it says the Seahawks are the best then it is good science. That is a joke guys lol. The sad thing is that if you didn't include that people would probably be quoting this post to complain about your homerism. 
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Dec 4, 2014 18:13
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My eye test really likes this no clothed emporer 
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Dec 4, 2014 18:13
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African AIDS cum posted:The tide is turning on advanced stats, exposed as the fraud and lies they are, the emperor has no clothes and the eye test reigns supreme. This is a watershed moment. DVOA is real bad at least in it's current form but PFF's system is kind of cool cause it's literally just putting numbers to the eye test. Its definitely got problems but its a start imo
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Dec 4, 2014 18:15
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PFF's system says that JJ Watt is on pace to be by far the best DE in history so I'm all about that
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Dec 4, 2014 18:16
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African AIDS cum posted:The tide is turning on advanced stats, exposed as the fraud and lies they are, the emperor has no clothes and the eye test reigns supreme. This is a watershed moment. I feel like you are being facetious, but something is wrong when the team with fewer yards, points, first downs as well as worse 3rd down efficiency and yards per play comes out ahead. The reality is that he counts a Rodgers fumble and a muffed punt against the Packers when neither happened. He's a homer.
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Dec 4, 2014 18:16
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Intruder posted:PFF's system says that JJ Watt is on pace to be by far the best DE in history so I'm all about that Watt might be the only non-QB who can win a game all by himself and I honestly can't think of who else would be on that list other than maybe a couple RBs and like maybe Revis at his peak? (definitely not sherman tho!!!!!)
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Dec 4, 2014 18:18
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Blotto Skorzany posted:The discussion about DVOA and VOA after the Pats/Packers game (and its poor predictive performance over the past couple of years) caused me to look at some of their other stats for which they are somewhat more open with the formulae. The coefficients are all pretty round numbers, suggesting they came at least partially from an rear end-pull rather than analysis. Also, they do all their poo poo in Excel which is kind of lolworthy, especially given the snarky blob at the end of their weekly articles touting objective quantities uber alles. This has convinced me that their numbers aren't as useful as I had thought and that nobody on that site actually understands statistical signal processing very well, they're just pulling poo poo from a cookbook. Apologies that this wasn't about football very much. I should make my own itch-scratch moon power ranking thing over the summer. Hasn't Schatz said that he's not a statistician and that he sorta just made up the formula at the beginning and made the site in an attempt to get himself noticed? I'd imagine they refined it but for all the hoopla he spouts his stuff really didn't start as anything special and I think he got noticed because he was the only one really attempting it. Also Schatz is a floppy wiener who constantly tries to pretend he's not a homer on twitter
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Dec 4, 2014 18:19
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JJ Watt is underpaid.
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Dec 4, 2014 18:19
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Leon Einstein posted:I feel like you are being facetious, but something is wrong when the team with fewer yards, points, first downs as well as worse 3rd down efficiency and yards per play comes out ahead. No its genuine, it seemed for a while everyone was cooking up formulas trying to be the next moneyball and they'd get together and jerk each other off at the sloan conference while employing very little academic rigor Big Ol Marsh Pussy posted:Watt might be the only non-QB who can win a game all by himself and I honestly can't think of who else would be on that list other than maybe a couple RBs and like maybe Revis at his peak? (definitely not sherman tho!!!!!)
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Dec 4, 2014 18:20
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Big Ol Marsh Pussy posted:DVOA is real bad at least in it's current form but PFF's system is kind of cool cause it's literally just putting numbers to the eye test. Its definitely got problems but its a start imo Sherman actually won the game against the Packers this very year.  The Packers beat themselves through bad coaching and a fear of Sherman, but I'm still giving him credit even though he literally didn't do a thing all game.
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Dec 4, 2014 18:22
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Leon Einstein posted:I feel like you are being facetious, but something is wrong when the team with fewer yards, points, first downs as well as worse 3rd down efficiency and yards per play comes out ahead. What type of not happened are we talkin about here
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Dec 4, 2014 18:22
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You guys missed the glory days of Hero of the Revolution posting about Brandon Meriweather and DVOA being basically his only leg to stand on.
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Dec 4, 2014 18:26
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It's impossible to make predictive teamwide football advanced stats because with the level of detail and nuance needed it would take way too much time to be profitable so no one will ever do it
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Dec 4, 2014 18:28
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