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Sheng-ji Yang posted:The ruble collapse is a consequence of OPEC's decision. I don't think you have to be a conspiracy theorist to think the Gulf States, maybe with the support/pressure of the US, took into account the geopolitical consequences against Russia and Iran when making their decision. The decline of the price of oil wasn't simply an OPEC decision though, they exacerbated it but it was a crisis of its own.
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Dec 17, 2014 10:40
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ReV VAdAUL posted:Still, I think the view that the drop in oil prices being a deliberate thing by America comes from the same place, though to a far less crazy degree, as JFK assassination conspiracies and 9/11 truth. That is, it's far less scary to imagine there is someone in control of global events than to think events with huge consequences can just sort of happen. I don't think it's that farfetched to believe that the US influenced OPEC's decision. Whether or not that influence even mattered is up for speculation and we'll probably never know. I imagine OPEC would have made their decision with or without the US nudging them along.
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Dec 17, 2014 16:02
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I wonder what we had to do to grease up the Saudis to not agree to a production cut for OPEC or if the Saudis really just want to turn some of our newer oil production facilities to run at a net loss.\ Or maybe a combination of both but it seems this could be a move from the Saudis to work against the US and in the background Russia suffers. 
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Dec 17, 2014 22:36
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Setting aside whether they could it is, in the literal sense of the world, unbelievable State or any representative of the US would be so short-sighted as to influence OPEC in any capacity to assist in lowering the price of oil such that it cripples one of the few genuinely growing industries in the USA, as distinct from industries that are only now getting their poo poo back together post-'08. Low oil fucks the Dakotas after drawing up every industrious goldrusher up to the Dakotas. Low oil utterly fucks Texas and from one month to the next has totally flipped the script of its economic outlook in the next two years. It doesn't even make sense as a MIGF-style 11 dimensional chess geopolitics wank, because sure it'll hurt a few regional economies, but its not like Iran and Russia will vanish from the firmament. They'll still exist, and their people will be justifiably pissed and desperate and succumbing to the destabilizing fire scorching everything east of Tangiers and west of China right now. It is not a global capitalist conspiracy, folks, it's a global deflationary spiral brought on by poor life choices made by dinguses born into more money than everyone on this forum will ever have in their lives put together and we've been building up to it ever since it was decided that expediently papering over gigantic cracks in the facade of global finance with a several trillion dollars rather than addressing the structural weaknesses of an economy largely driven on speculation was a good idea. It was: not
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Dec 17, 2014 22:57
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Willie Tomg posted:it's a global deflationary spiral and we've been building up to it ever since it was decided that expediently papering over gigantic cracks in the facade of global finance with a several trillion dollars rather than addressing the structural weaknesses of an economy largely driven on speculation was a good idea. It was: not
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Dec 17, 2014 22:58
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Necc0 posted:I don't think it's that farfetched to believe that the US influenced OPEC's decision. Whether or not that influence even mattered is up for speculation and we'll probably never know. I imagine OPEC would have made their decision with or without the US nudging them along. It was sooner rather than later given how the oil industry has gone hog wild other last few years with technology like fracking or shale oil extraction. Basically you have a production surge with predictable results. Also developed and emerging markets didn't recover enough from the recession to eat the massive increase in supply capability.
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Dec 18, 2014 01:16
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:The ruble collapse is a consequence of OPEC's decision. I don't think you have to be a conspiracy theorist to think the Gulf States, maybe with the support/pressure of the US, took into account the geopolitical consequences against Russia and Iran when making their decision. Even if this was 100% in OPEC's control, it's worth noting that U.S. pressure has not been successful in getting Saudi Arabia to stop funding foreign jihadists. So the idea that we can successfully convince them to lose many billions of dollars as a favor seems far-fetched.
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Dec 18, 2014 01:32
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Best Friends posted:Even if this was 100% in OPEC's control, it's worth noting that U.S. pressure has not been successful in getting Saudi Arabia to stop funding foreign jihadists. So the idea that we can successfully convince them to lose many billions of dollars as a favor seems far-fetched. Is it not realistic that the Saudis would be willing to take an economic hit to hurt Iran without even having to look in their direction?
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Dec 18, 2014 01:36
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Bel Shazar posted:Is it not realistic that the Saudis would be willing to take an economic hit to hurt Iran without even having to look in their direction? Whats that, the Sauds can't hear you over all the money they're making and their improved market share. Cutting production would do extremely little to increase oil prices. The decline in oil is due to fundamentals.
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Dec 18, 2014 01:38
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Isn't it feasible that the Saudis just want to knock out the other OPEC members and this has nothing entirely to do with the US and Russia?
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Dec 18, 2014 02:07
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Insane Totoro posted:Isn't it feasible that the Saudis just want to knock out the other OPEC members and this has nothing entirely to do with the US and Russia? 
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Dec 18, 2014 02:24
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To clarify: it isn't feasible, but it also has nothing entirely to do with the US an Russia. It is a market doing Things, which just so happens to be happening at a time in which other things are happening in politics which means other effects in those subsidiary, separate issues. Generally speaking, it really sucks to consider the implications of those things.
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Dec 18, 2014 02:27
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So what you're kind of saying is that there are market forces at work here that have nothing to do with an individual government's motivations?
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Dec 18, 2014 02:32
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Insane Totoro posted:So what you're kind of saying is that there are market forces at work here that have nothing to do with an individual government's motivations? The forces that are pushing down on oil are market and financially related, and I don't believe are intentional. The Saudis have made the choice to keep production high and that is exacerbating the issue but it didn't cause it in the first place. As illustrated by other posters in this thread, low oil prices aren't necessarily great for every part of the US and if anything are going to damage a lot of local and state economies. I think like pretty much all major economic crises this wasn't intentional.
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Dec 18, 2014 02:56
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Willie Tomg posted:To clarify: it isn't feasible, but it also has nothing entirely to do with the US an Russia. It is a market doing Things, which just so happens to be happening at a time in which other things are happening in politics which means other effects in those subsidiary, separate issues. Generally speaking, it really sucks to consider the implications of those things. basically after the 2009 recession oil spiked up to 110 dollars per barrel which encouraged all the big energy producers to go even more crazy. Combine this with the massive technological advances in the last decade for energy production and you have the perfect storm. Also OPEC was pretty much a failure over the years at fixing oil price points due to in-fighting and lack of coordination between members.
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Dec 18, 2014 03:05
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Ardennes posted:The forces that are pushing down on oil are market and financially related, and I don't believe are intentional. The Saudis have made the choice to keep production high and that is exacerbating the issue but it didn't cause it in the first place. In your view, what produced the spike in oil during 2009?
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Dec 18, 2014 03:11
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My Imaginary GF posted:In your view, what produced the spike in oil during 2009? Oh you mean after it dropped from $140 a barrel in 2008 then recovered to $70 by 2009? Investors get hungry when they see it isn't the end of the world and that US/China (at that time) was issuing stimulus. This is also the reason, it is probably a good idea to look at coming deals in the recent future.
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Dec 18, 2014 03:36
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Insane Totoro posted:Isn't it feasible that the Saudis just want to knock out the other OPEC members and this has nothing entirely to do with the US and Russia? Saudi Arabia was able to do this in the 80s but does not have enough share at the moment.
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Dec 18, 2014 03:40
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So when the price goes up it's evil speculators and when it's going down it's some Saudi conspiracy? Great, case closed.
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Dec 18, 2014 03:56
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Pryor on Fire posted:So when the price goes up it's evil speculators and when it's going down it's some Saudi conspiracy? Great, case closed. Be fair, Saudi conspiracies are perfectly capable of increasing prices too. Saudi conspiracies just haven't been the same since Yamani left though.
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Dec 18, 2014 05:33
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Ardennes posted:Oh you mean after it dropped from $140 a barrel in 2008 then recovered to $70 by 2009? Investors get hungry when they see it isn't the end of the world and that US/China (at that time) was issuing stimulus.  Don't read the article, its full of market technician crap. Newsflash, China is still issuing stimulus, to cover their massive property bubble. The inventory carry trades are unwinding which is causing liquidity led selling & bear raids. If Saud were to suddenly increase price, then you would see it in the futures curve, because someone would need to take the hedge to that trade. If that made zero sense to you, just accept its nearly impossible for someone to corner the crude market for more than 100 days due to logistics reasons. We are well past 100 days. So talking about some grand Saudi plot is stupid. Hell The Economist wrote a whole issue about it last week, so spend 10 bux and read it if half the posters can't convince you otherwise.
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Dec 18, 2014 06:05
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Ron Jeremy posted:From a few pages back but I thought this was interesting. Is this a consequence of the financialization of the economy and fewer domestic industries? Maybe lower job participation? No, they changed the definition of GDP. It used to be mostly GNP + gov. but as the economy moves from software and services based, the oil to GDP correlation breaks down since unlike trucking and industrial plastics corps, Silicon Valley doesn't need thousands of barrels a day to produce a trillion dollar market cap idea. You get the same graph if you overlay Italy or India too. Its important to know wtf you are looking at, esp if your going to base your entire macroeconomic post on cross plots.
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Dec 18, 2014 06:09
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Hal_2005 posted:Newsflash, China is still issuing stimulus, to cover their massive property bubble. The inventory carry trades are unwinding which is causing liquidity led selling & bear raids. They are, but it isn't having the same effect today as it did in 2009, which is more or less my point. China is simply in a different position today and expectations are quickly realigning to that fact. quote:If Saud were to suddenly increase price, then you would see it in the futures curve, because someone would need to take the hedge to that trade. If that made zero sense to you, just accept its nearly impossible for someone to corner the crude market for more than 100 days due to logistics reasons. We are well past 100 days. So talking about some grand Saudi plot is stupid. Hell The Economist wrote a whole issue about it last week, so spend 10 bux and read it if half the posters can't convince you otherwise. One explanation is it might be more emotional calming to believe this is "Saudi trickery." Ardennes fucked around with this message at 06:15 on Dec 18, 2014 |
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Dec 18, 2014 06:13
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I wonder if this has anything to do with catching all these financial institutions red handed in doing their usual hosed-up poo poo. Since the price of oil was so loving inflated due to futures and speculation, usa/britian made a bargain that they would all be required to short their futures at the same time at some point to avoid prosecution. I know that sounds dumb, but if that chart is true, then the price crash is because a bunch of rentiers shorted all their poo poo at the same time. This seems to point to some political dealmaking going on, or the major oil companies (chevron, exxon, etc) decided to be opportunistic and gently caress over bp so they can gobble up their assets on the cheap.
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Dec 18, 2014 20:14
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Aside from the Frackers being Fracked, North Sea Oil production is not looking too hot either: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30525539 quote:'Everyone is retreating'
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Dec 18, 2014 22:18
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Ardennes posted:They are, but it isn't having the same effect today as it did in 2009, which is more or less my point. China is simply in a different position today and expectations are quickly realigning to that fact. What are these expectations? Also, what can we expect China to do? Other than buy up a whole bunch of oil and oil companies, which I see they have already done.
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Dec 18, 2014 23:12
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jet sanchEz posted:What are these expectations? Also, what can we expect China to do? Other than buy up a whole bunch of oil and oil companies, which I see they have already done. I am talking about expectations of the Chinese economy, we know growth now isn't going to be as high as in the future as we did in 2007 or 2012.
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Dec 18, 2014 23:32
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Willie Tomg posted:To clarify: it isn't feasible, but it also has nothing entirely to do with the US an Russia. It is a market doing Things, which just so happens to be happening at a time in which other things are happening in politics which means other effects in those subsidiary, separate issues. Generally speaking, it really sucks to consider the implications of those things. the obvious solution is to gently caress russia then bail them out in exchange for their nukes and treat them like the oversized second world shithole they are~~~
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Dec 19, 2014 01:25
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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Nigeria is beginning to experience liquidity issues, bars banks from pricing funds in USD in order to stem currency speculation http://www.ventures-africa.com/2014/12/nigerian-banks-barred-from-holding-funds-in-dollars/ quote:VENTURES AFRICA – The Central Bank of Nigeria today barred banks from holding their own funds in dollars in a bid to to end the speculative pressure on the naira that has seen it fall over 12 percent against the dollar this year. Also planned is a doubling of the Nigerian VAT, for 5% to 10%
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Dec 19, 2014 03:38
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Willie Tomg posted:Setting aside whether they could it is, in the literal sense of the world, unbelievable State or any representative of the US would be so short-sighted as to influence OPEC in any capacity to assist in lowering the price of oil such that it cripples one of the few genuinely growing industries in the USA, as distinct from industries that are only now getting their poo poo back together post-'08. Low oil fucks the Dakotas after drawing up every industrious goldrusher up to the Dakotas. Low oil utterly fucks Texas and from one month to the next has totally flipped the script of its economic outlook in the next two years. It doesn't even make sense as a MIGF-style 11 dimensional chess geopolitics wank, because sure it'll hurt a few regional economies, but its not like Iran and Russia will vanish from the firmament. They'll still exist, and their people will be justifiably pissed and desperate and succumbing to the destabilizing fire scorching everything east of Tangiers and west of China right now. Reasons this isn't a conspiracy: People are rational actors. Reasons this is just a global deflationary spiral: People are not rational actors. Ok.
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Dec 19, 2014 06:17
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Regarde Aduck posted:Reasons this isn't a conspiracy: People are rational actors. Welcome to markets 101. See: tulips & Florida for more info.
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Dec 19, 2014 06:30
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Trabisnikof posted:Welcome to markets 101. See: tulips & Florida for more info. Wait wait are you saying there is a flaw in neo-classical economics? This I can not believe!
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Dec 19, 2014 07:03
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Regarde Aduck posted:Reasons this isn't a conspiracy: People are rational actors. Rationality is a correlation of belief with reasons for belief. It is neither intelligence nor wisdom which is why the veneration of reason as an end in itself by certain people (let's call them, "nerds") is very, very funny. Being a reasonable, rational actor doesn't preclude one's also being a dunderhead initiating the economic phenomenon people talk about when they talk about awful, intractable economic phenomena.
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Dec 19, 2014 07:42
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So, anyone get pinkslips yet from an Aberdeen firm ? Telegraph is running the story of how the layoffs will push UK into a hard-landing recession to mirror the pre-Thatcher crash. Also to keep with the doom porn theme, DB is saying Texas the state will likely need a bailout next year if prices stay below 60/bbl with about 40% of the town near the Permian 1-standard dev. away from default. Fun times.
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Dec 23, 2014 03:03
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Rick Perry could not have timed his exit from politics better with a loving stopwatch and a decade's notice. Seeing the reaction of the Abbott administration will be "cool" in the sense that I have no dependents and my work is a skilled trade that is infinitely relocatable, so I have a degree of insulation from how catastrophically hosed things will be. Getting clear of the mushroom cloud is *merely* an exercise in leaving a bunch of friends because of economic distress. Again. goddammit 
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Dec 23, 2014 05:37
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Willie Tomg posted:Rick Perry could not have timed his exit from politics better with a loving stopwatch and a decade's notice. Seeing the reaction of the Abbott administration will be "cool" in the sense that I have no dependents and my work is a skilled trade that is infinitely relocatable, so I have a degree of insulation from how catastrophically hosed things will be. Getting clear of the mushroom cloud is *merely* an exercise in leaving a bunch of friends because of economic distress. Again. I could have done with an extra year, but I'll manage. Well, frankly, so probably will you, but in theory I'll actually benefit from my university contacts being suddenly real interested in outside (and ideally out of state) sources of revenue.
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Dec 23, 2014 06:55
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Hal_2005 posted:Also to keep with the doom porn theme, DB is saying Texas the state will likely need a bailout next year if prices stay below 60/bbl with about 40% of the town near the Permian 1-standard dev. away from default. I don't believe the math that says Texas will need a bailout. Texas has a lot of education funding they can cut first.
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Dec 23, 2014 07:26
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Hal_2005 posted:So, anyone get pinkslips yet from an Aberdeen firm ? Telegraph is running the story of how the layoffs will push UK into a hard-landing recession to mirror the pre-Thatcher crash. Scotland going independent would have been not good to say the least right about now.
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Dec 23, 2014 10:44
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simmyb posted:What is with the boner US car makers have for those hideous matte plastic panels everywhere what the gently caress Huge amounts of oil used to develop and process those panels, too. Overwhelmingly depressing.
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Dec 23, 2014 11:20
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Adar posted:Scotland going independent would have been not good to say the least right about now. For Scotland, or for the rest of the UK?
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Dec 23, 2014 11:24
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