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IcePhoenix posted:I actually really like that you started with them just sorted by position because I think people sometimes over or undervalue players by comparing them to the whole instead of against positional value. I think this can also be deceptive, though, since ultimately what matters is the absolute differences, not the proportions. (That is, it's a lot easier to make it up if your C is at 50% on SB than if your CF is.)
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Feb 2, 2015 11:29
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Mornacale posted:I think this can also be deceptive, though, since ultimately what matters is the absolute differences, not the proportions. (That is, it's a lot easier to make it up if your C is at 50% on SB than if your CF is.) Also true, but I don't think anyone is really looking at steals.
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Feb 2, 2015 12:29
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I am kind of mad someone created ottoneu auction values. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MfVx2vWHuOsGabMlna9IntSgj3OMPTLP1Fe98_QDq0w/edit#gid=1077220645 This just seems to reduce the chaos of figuring out what the gently caress to do when going into a SABR points league for the first time. I started to work on my own but I'm pretty sure Mike Trout will go for more than $25.
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Feb 2, 2015 21:12
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I absolutely acknowledge how deceptive speed is on the graphs for catchers. I'm planning on getting each position done then overall done. I had 1B all but done and I didn't realize the formatting was all messed up so I'm doing another pass. Steamer really loves Miggy this year wowza.
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Feb 2, 2015 21:23
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Anyone know when ESPN Fantasy Baseball will come back from "maintenance"? I need to email people to see if they're coming back for 2015.
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Feb 3, 2015 08:42
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they usually 'perform maintenance' for about a week before they reopen
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Feb 3, 2015 16:33
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tadashi posted:I am kind of mad someone created ottoneu auction values. No this is awesome and since I am joining one of these leagues for the first time this year, I am thankful for this!
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Feb 3, 2015 17:16
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So excited for this to start again. Going for two championships in my first two years 
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Feb 3, 2015 20:21
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ROCK THE HOUSE M.D. posted:Looks like they ARE doing PRO leagues, but they won't open until March. Yeah they were painfully behind on PRO fantasy football, as well. I may do another PRO100 this year. Competition wasn't any better than any other casual money leagues, so it was a fairly easy run to the championship last year.
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Feb 4, 2015 19:02
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kensei posted:No this is awesome and since I am joining one of these leagues for the first time this year, I am thankful for this! The best part about non-traditional leagues is reading tons of fantasy tips and then mentally deleting all of them because they have little relevance to you.
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Feb 4, 2015 20:19
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So... any cash leagues out there in need of sign ups?
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Feb 5, 2015 05:52
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tadashi posted:I am kind of mad someone created ottoneu auction values. Do you have any idea what the theoretical basis of these numbers is? I did way too much work on my own value system for such a league and I'd like to compare methodologies. e: I've got Mr Trout at $51, though I would expect him to go for more at auction. Mornacale fucked around with this message at 15:36 on Feb 5, 2015 |
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Feb 5, 2015 15:33
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I don't care if I wound up getting screwed, but this was fun. Round numbers for keeper round value is in parentheses: pre:Other trading away: Me trading away: Clayton Kershaw(1) Troy Tulowitzki (1) Sterling Marte(20) Travis d'Arnaud (ADP) 22nd Round Pick 7th Round Pick Adam Wainwright (7) Clayton Kershaw (1) Anthony Rizzo(4) Freddie Freeman(8) Paul Goldschmidt(1) Jacoby Ellsbury(4) Miguel Sano(25) Jon Lester(ADP) 4th Round Pick Wil Myers(13) 5th Round Pick Lose: Tulo/Kershaw(1) Travis d'Arnaud(ADP) Freddie Freeman(8) Ellsbury(4) Lester(ADP) Wil Myers(13) 7th round pick 5th round Pick Receive: Goldschmidt(1) Rizzo(4) Wainwright(7) Marte(20) Sano(25) 4th Round PIck 22nd Round Pick I still have Kris Bryant at 18 and Abreu at 3 Dingers I also love trading in keeper leagues. Even if I do something stupid it's a lot of fun. ZenVulgarity fucked around with this message at 16:29 on Feb 5, 2015 |
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Feb 5, 2015 16:25
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Yaaaaaay! Baseball! I am really pumped for this year. Anyway my league went keepers this past year. Although the increase in keeping cost gets big fast! +1$, +4, +8, +13 etc. Should maintain a lot of turn over while still allowing for some good value. Either way I think I am going to be keeping Cueto around 5$ and Joey Bats around 25$. What are your guys favorite projections to use? Do you look at Steamer or Zips and just do some manual adjustments? Have someone else who you tend to agree with?
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Feb 5, 2015 16:41
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steamer for pitching, zips for hitting
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Feb 5, 2015 16:59
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Abel Wingnut posted:steamer for pitching, zips for hitting And why do you like that method? I have heard that Steamer tends to be better for projecting breaking out pitchers...what is zips' advantage for hitters?
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Feb 5, 2015 17:22
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steamer factors fastball velocity into its projections, and fastball velocity correlates well with performance. i've relied on zips the last few years out of habit. around 2012 articles found it to be the most accurate. i have no idea if that's still the case. i plan on researching it this year. just don't use pecota...
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Feb 5, 2015 17:51
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lmao pecota
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Feb 5, 2015 18:06
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I'm starting to look into creating my own rankings, and this site has a ton of useful Excel tutorials geared towards fantasy baseball: http://www.smartfantasybaseball.com
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Feb 5, 2015 18:45
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Mornacale posted:Do you have any idea what the theoretical basis of these numbers is? I did way too much work on my own value system for such a league and I'd like to compare methodologies. Sorry, here's a link back to the original post: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/auction-values-for-ottoneu-leagues/ The values should be based around fantasy value above replacement. It kind of works like this: https://fvarbaseball.wordpress.com/2014/01/11/fvar-methodology-and-data/ In ottoneu, you can see the average current value of players. Trout is in the high-60's (which includes arbitration inflation, I assume?). I'm just taking these at face value of someone with a lot more experience than me, since I am brand new to this. I'll probably do a little tinkering for myself. tadashi fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Feb 5, 2015 |
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Feb 5, 2015 22:48
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tadashi posted:Sorry, here's a link back to the original post: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/auction-values-for-ottoneu-leagues/ Looks like the big methodological problem with these projections is that they are essentially the fantasy version of $/WAR. They work up how many Fantasy Points Above Replacement exist in the world, make some assumptions about how much money there is to spend, divide, and then multiply the resulting $/FPAR by each player's individual projection to get a dollar amount. So the assumption is that you'd like (guy who's 500 points above replacement + replacement player) exactly as much as 2 guys who are 250 points above replacement.
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Feb 6, 2015 02:52
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I have nowhere else to ask, but I've run into an issue with those radar plots I posted earlier. If a player has a negative batting average compared to the average, it brings the whole graph down to 8 plot points to 10 (as seen in the Mike Zunino graph). Does anybody know how to fix this?
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Feb 7, 2015 06:16
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I am going to have at least 2 openings in my majority-Goon league, possibly more once I can email the rest of the owners. Should I post in here or make a standalone thread?
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Feb 7, 2015 09:13
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If it's the ESPN one that I was in last year you can count me out. I overstepped my bounds and had too many leagues. I don't want to do a disservice by being inactive in like half of them again. And since I accidentally joined a Dynasty startup I'll bow out.
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Feb 7, 2015 17:40
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Rand alPaul posted:I am going to have at least 2 openings in my majority-Goon league, possibly more once I can email the rest of the owners. Should I post in here or make a standalone thread? PM me - interested in breaking out of my fraternity's league that nobody pays attention to anymore
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Feb 7, 2015 19:36
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Rand alPaul posted:I am going to have at least 2 openings in my majority-Goon league, possibly more once I can email the rest of the owners. Should I post in here or make a standalone thread? I'd be interested Should I keep Waino in the seventh round if I can't deal him off?
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Feb 7, 2015 20:16
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Anyone doing a cash league this year that has an opening? It doesnt have to be a big buy in.
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Feb 7, 2015 22:04
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I'd be interested for any cash, points leagues as well.
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Feb 8, 2015 01:00
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So these are the PECOTA projections for Steven Souza for standard 5x5:  .261/25 HR/26 SB/80 RBI/83 R.
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Feb 8, 2015 02:03
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Pecota is bad and you should feel bad for posting their projections
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Feb 8, 2015 06:15
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You mean the system that projected Matt Wieters to have a season as a rookie that literally had only been done by Mike Piazza at the position is flawed? Well I'll be.
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Feb 8, 2015 06:17
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Yahoo now has that in-draft standings tracker that only ESPN used to have. You can get a good idea of who is locking down stat categories. Their layout is absolute poo poo now, but I do love that feature.
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Feb 9, 2015 04:55
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Moneyball posted:Yahoo now has that in-draft standings tracker that only ESPN used to have. You can get a good idea of who is locking down stat categories. It was the one thing that made me nervous about playing in a Yahoo league this year. At least now I'll know how bad my team is right away.
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Feb 9, 2015 20:49
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Alrighty, I asked this at the end of last season, but I'm still hemming and hawing over my final keeper choice... and some of them have changed, so I'd like to get everyone's input. ESPN standard roster size 10 Team League 6x6 with the standard categories plus OPS and K/BB. Auction Draft with 260 dollar budget Select five keepers, with an inflation of $5 in price for keepers each year Player Name (Cost to keep this year) No Doubters: Kluber ($8) Rizzo ($13) Stanton ($29) Springer ($8) Bubble: J. Fernandez ($8) Arenado ($8) Kershaw ($34) Betts ($8) [Homer Red Sox option] With talk of Fernandez not being ready till June/July, I'm drifting away from him as my last keeper choice. I think I have a great shot to win this year, so I'm struggling with whether to keep Arenado as the rising young hitter with a long term great value price, or go all in on Kershaw--I can almost guarantee at auction he would go for higher than $34. Third base seems like it will be tough this year, so I'd go Arenado over Betts as the hitter even though I love me some Mookie.
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Feb 10, 2015 20:35
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Because of the way 3rd base looks, I would go with Arenado and then follow the thread title's advice if you need extra pitching help. Fernandez's timeline is like June/July if everything goes well.
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Feb 10, 2015 22:42
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That is a tough choice. Kershaw for $34 is pretty drat good in a league that adds K/BB, but I can't escape the nagging feeling that Kluber + Kershaw is just too much pitching. Arenado's ranking this year is all over the place but Grey over at Razzball has him at #20 overall and Baseball Guys has him at $19. I owned Arenado a lot last year and he is really a good hitter. Dude is only 23 and if he didn't get hurt last year he was on pace for 25+ homers with .800+ OPS. I'd probably keep Arenado because he's so cheap, and there is just so much pitching out there.
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Feb 10, 2015 22:56
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When is grienke going to die
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Feb 10, 2015 23:39
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I have V-Mart as a super cheap keeper, and I see today's news that he will be out 4-6 weeks. I am leaning toward keeping him, what is the general sentiment on here?
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Feb 10, 2015 23:45
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arenado is a no-doubter in my book. i love kershaw as much as the next guy, but with the money you save you can go after like two or three other aces.
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Feb 10, 2015 23:54
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Thanks for all the input people, sounds like Arenado might be the way to go. "Luckily" I have months to decide  kensei posted:I have V-Mart as a super cheap keeper, and I see today's news that he will be out 4-6 weeks. I am leaning toward keeping him, what is the general sentiment on here? Dude is super duper old, which makes any injury scary. Throw in the fact that he has had serious knee injuries in the past, and red flags are shooting up all over the place. That being said, if you have him as a "super cheap" keeper, then I think go for it. You saw his ceiling last year, and as a low cost keeper the risk is low as well. Is it unlimited keepers? If not, who's the last guy you are bumping off to keep V-Mart. That's the only way to fully answer.
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Feb 10, 2015 23:55
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