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Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Charles "Jesus Christ" Sims

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Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Hazo posted:

Is Graham expected to be #1 at TE again this year now that he's with Seattle, or has Gronk moved up (followed by a plummet in TE value)? I used my 1.12/2.1 picks on Graham and Ball last year in the league I run and missed the championship for the first time ever and I need to be talked out of doing that again.

2015 TE RANKS

1. Rob Gronkowski

HUGE loving DROP OFF

2. Jimmy Graham

HUGE loving DROP OFF

3. Kelce/Olsen/Whomeverthefuck


Seattle is a run first team, but Graham should see some serious work in the red zone. I think it is reasonable to expect similar production to what he did last year (zeroes included.)

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Jose Valasquez posted:

This is the year for Kyle Rudolph. TE sleeper pick of the year, count on it.

Oddly enough I'm on board. I streamed tight ends last year to great success, and for daily fantasy plays a bunch of those guys like Rudolph/Kelce/Walker can be huge versus the competition, but thats the only justification I can make for them.

Its really Gronk/maybe graham/maybe kelce/maybe Cameron or bust this year, and then just take TE's once you've filled out your other positions.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Correction, Bryant is a grown rear end man.

None of those other mans seem like a worthwhile keep.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

old dog child posted:

What's everyone expecting out of Maclin this year?


Easily. This ain't the Jon Fox show anymore. Kubiak will play whoever is better.

I expect Maclin to run down the field while alex smith gives the ball to j. charles

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Leperflesh posted:

Maybe one of Peyton, Brady, Cam, Ryan, or Brees?

How tired and done do we think Peyton is now? Is Cam going to be healthy this season? Is Ryan a sneaky stealth pick?

Ryan has been a great pick the past few years, the problem has been his O-line/reciever health at times.

Peyton is a guy I'm avoiding this year, just like Brees. I'm OK with any of the Denver receivers, but I think "premium" QBs like those guys aren't worth taking with a pick this year when you can find similar value later in the draft. I think Rodgers and maybe Luck are the only guys worth burning a high pick on.

I really like Bridgewater and Tannehill this year, almost too much.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

LmaoTheKid posted:

My "wait" QB this year is Tannehill.

E: I'm not suggesting he'll be #3, sorry, I'm tired as hell today.

mine too gtfo my head charles

e: ^^ I rode Romo/Dez stacks to many a victory last year, especially in DFS. Romo is so criminally underrated as a fantasy player, and I'm an eagles fan.

Gyshall fucked around with this message at 15:28 on May 6, 2015

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Draft Brady like you would any other quarterback (don't draft them high if its not aaron rodgers you goony bastards)

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

LmaoTheKid posted:

I'm ready to put Luck in that tier. This is probably the last year you'll get him "lateish"

Agreed, Luck has so many weapons this year its silly.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Brady disappearing basically nukes all of New England's fantasy value.

I think Garoppolo could do things, but this makes me sour a bit on Gronk in the first round - maybe late first, early second now, especially if the ban is 6 games.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Spoeank posted:

So Gronk is a mid-second rounder now?

Gronk is a transcendent talent, I've been seeing him go in the top 5 in some drafts, especially PPR. I think that he is still a good pick in the late first round or so.

I mean, most of the time the gameplan will still be the same - Gronk get open, throw ball to Gronk, Gronk smash, Gronk spike ball.

Also don't underestimate Brady's ability to appeal, hes rich as gently caress and certainly has the lawyers to do so.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Does anyone know where I can get a spreadsheet/CSV of 2014 game, player, and/or team raw data? I have some from pro-football-reference.com but it doesn't include fumbles and is only for individual players.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
The Abdullah hype train is going to go off the rails at some point - I love him, but who knows what that situation could be like. (fantasy_drafts_in_may.txt)

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Spoeank posted:

Jamey Eisenberg was talking about him as a top-25 back. I imagine it's going to get worse (higher ADP) from there. Does nobody remember Bishop Sankey?

Silva is all over his nuts too.

I'm high on Abdullah as a talent, but Joique is still "good" and I don't see him losing his job to a rookie right off the bat. Also Zach Zenner is a guy too, at best case I see the backfield being a serious RBBC.

I'm also high on Melvin Gordon, but that is more because of fit + talent + lack of competition.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Fred Jackson has an adamantium skeleton though so that isn't a fair comparison.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Mary Kay Cabot is the worst beat writer for fantasy purposes, imo. Doesn't help that she is writing for a poo poo team.

Anyway, does anyone know of an app or spreadsheet that would let me import my MFL10 teams/rosters into manageable data?

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Leperflesh posted:

Your first round pick should be:
  • an elite at their position, league-wide
  • unambiguously healthy and ready to play the entire season
  • in a team situation where they can excel as the clear and unambiguous #1 for their position and also as the #1 play-maker for the team
  • playing in a position where there is a steep drop-off in fantasy production once the few elites have been drafted
  • a player you want to watch every week and will enjoy watching succeed

All of these, together, make for a first round pick. If any of them aren't there, it's probably not the guy you should draft. For me, that means avoiding players with questionable play status (suspended or likely to be), or who I actively hate as people (AP), or who are in positionally-rich positions (QB), or who are in team situations where it's unclear how they'll be used (Graham), or a hot-hand RB situation, or an RB on a team with a questionable OL, etc.

I think a fantasy football team should represent not only the players you think can win you a championship, but also the players that will attract and hold your attention and interest all season. You want to feel happy when they do well, and that's hard to do if they play on the team you hate. If you're like me, you're going to try to watch at least the highlights if not the entire games for all of your important fantasy players; you want to be watching good enjoyable football and having a good time, not watching bad football or rooting for a player to earn you points on a team you actually want to lose games.

I know when there's money on the line, or if you're indifferent to who wins or loses, that may not be a concern. But god, if you're indifferent to football, why are you doing this? There are easier and more profitable ways to make money, if that's the only concern.

gently caress that your first round pick should be Charles Sims

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
I actually kind of like Doug Martin at his current ADP value. If you're going bottom-up strategy (WR/TE etc) you can sometimes grab the entire Tampa Bay backfield on your roster, which is A Thing (maybe a good thing? fantasy.txt)

People forget that while Martin has been hurt for a good majority of the season (only playing 18 games the past two), he rushed for 1400+ yards his rookie season, had 49 receptions for 400+ yards, 12 total touchdowns and only 1 fumble lost.

On top of that, he is in a contract year this year, so much like how Mark Ingram was a top runner last year, I think Martin could be a good gamble in the mid-late rounds. He is currently RB35 and overall pick #106 for ADP according to Fantasy Pros.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Cervixalot posted:

If you're doing MFL10s, be careful how you set your Pre-Draft list or you'll end up like Purple Thunder over here, lol:

http://football30.myfantasyleague.com/2015/options?L=11787&O=07

He's got 4 QBs and 0 RBs after 9 rounds.

Edit:

Who is Former Kicker Ray Finkle? I think I remember you being in the Goon Slow Draft. I'm Quarter Roys - good luck dude.

That's me! I'm Former Kicker Ray Finkle.

also


MrSargent posted:

I feel like I read this post last year, minus the part about it being a contract year. drat you Doug Martin!

Yeah Martin is my New Kenny Britt, but actually my new Mark Ingram, where I draft him all the time no matter what. Ingram I've drafted since his rookie season, and seeing him blow up last year finally gave me hope. Martin's rookie season was really, really good, though - the point is to not make him your RB1 but your RB3/4 with upside.

Hightlight reel but whatevs, look at some of the runs he breaks off:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffw9EBOSlew

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Le'Veon Bell?


(In addition to not playing football for 3 games this year for smoking hella weed, Bell is less than seven months out from this hyperextension)

Forsett is going to be a monster in PPR this year. Would give serious consideration to Gronk #1 overall in PPR.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

VDay posted:

I wonder if there are hard numbers to support this, but it definitely feels like there are more viable fantasy players than ever at pretty much every position except TE. I know NFL offenses have been throwing more in the last few years and are slowly becoming more like the college game, but it still feels crazy to see some of the production available in the top 50 picks. You can go with pretty much any draft strategy that you want because there are like 15-20 solid RBs and 25-30 great WRs available, with like 15 serviceable QBs that will be there in the later rounds.

:agreed: but it is still june, training camps and what not will spin the hype machine into full force

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Yeah I'd take Bell over Foster at least. I just don't understand the 1.01 L. Bell picks when he has so much going against him.

e: Bell might have his suspension reduced but even still.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

RCarr posted:

I mean if he wasn't suspended I don't see how he isn't the first overall pick. Dude was basically averaging 200 yards from scrimmage every game. He's a beast. His suspension definitely hurts, but he's still easily a first round pick. I'm keeping him in the third round in my league and I couldn't be happier.

He is less than 7 months removed from a pretty serious knee injury that the Steelers were very mum/secretive about in the playoffs. Also he himself says he's not back at 100% yet:

Rotoworld posted:

Le'Veon Bell says his right knee is "close" to 100 percent.

It's the second straight month Bell has said he's "close" to full health. It's an interesting admission, as Bell's knee was supposedly only hyperextended after he went down in Week 17. Bell claimed in January that he was at "85-90 percent," but now admits it was closer to 50. Off the field, Bell apologized for his summer 2014 arrest. "I learned my lesson and it made me a better man and person," Bell said. "It's going to make me a better player." Bell is still working to get his three-game suspension reduced. May 26 - 5:59 PM

I think there are some serious warning flags for him right now for being a first round pick. He has great talent and he looked great last year, but his suspension isn't the only thing you should be concerned about right now when evaluating him as a fantasy pick.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Azhais posted:

Are suspended players allowed to attend training camp?

I do not believe so, last year Josh Gordon could because the suspension hadn't been handed down yet.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Sataere posted:

Any chance Hill falls to you next round if you grab Dez?

I've been getting Hill in the second round quite regularly, especially starting with Julio in the first.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Great stuff.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
fantasy football is 25% analytics/stats, 25% knowing football/football IQ/knowing which guys actually suck, and 50% luck

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
The Browns backfield was and will be nothing more than a daily tournament play this year. Don't draft those guys at all... Crowell was barely startable as an RB4 last year.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
The Only Brown You Should Draft Is Josh Gordon

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Murmur Twin posted:

Does this mean I should wait until the second round to draft Sims? I'm so confused.

clearly you get the sims handcuff, who is doug martin

but seriously I'm at 80%+ ownage (20 leagues so far) of Doug Martin thus far this year in MFL10s, he is going to be like Mark Ingram this year, playin' for that paycheck. I know he has two lovely seasons to look at but good goddamn do I want him to do well.

And if he doesn't, MFL10s are a great place to burn that pick, especially at his current ADP.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Boldin has been a great pick the last couple of years, people sleep on him so hard. Love me some old possession receivers.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

railroad terror posted:

bills skill position

Avoid. Rex Ryan had to put second string D against all 3 quarterbacks during OTAs this year, which is not a very good sign.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Doppelganger posted:

I'm seriously leaning towards not playing ANY fantasy football leagues this year. Just relax on sundays, don't worry about the Dolphins' WR depth, and enjoy my Saints.

"I can quit whenever I want"

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Azhais posted:

You gotta go the opposite route and get into 30 leagues so you can't possibly care about any one of them enough to ruin your Sundays

yeah exactly. I'm going to be in (tentatively) 12 season-long leagues this year, I'm in 25 MFL10s (as of right now) and I'm a DFS addict so I just get :420: drink beer and eat a ton of food on sundays and then enjoy whatever monday night players I need to go off.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
I'm taking Kenny Britt in all the late rounds because I CAN'T QUIT YOU KENNY

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

TNG posted:

Is this it? Is this the year that the wheels finally fall off Antonio Gates?

I don't think so, Former Basketball Players are the poo poo and I think they can be at least relevant in Fantasy in their older years.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Forsett is going to be just fine with Trestman... But most people are just high on him for the value he was last year... He won a ton of teams championships. I think he is a good option compared to the other guys around his ADP

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
The best was watching people blow 50%+ of their FAAB dollars last year on Peterson.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Cervixalot posted:

My goto list:

The Audible, On the Couch from Footballguys
Rummy and Ray
Fantasy Feast with Evan Silva and Ross Tucker
Rotoviz Radio
DLF Dynasty Podcast
4for4
PFF Radio

A Good Post

old dog child posted:

Does anyone actually pay for 4for4 or footballguys? I was thinking about it but a part of me feels like this thread is effectively the equivalent.

IMO get a fantasypros sub and you can get both of their rankings and more if thats all you're interested in. Its like 14 bucks

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Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Its Miller Time posted:

Spiller or Ingram
Vereen or Jennings
Fitzgerald or Floyd

Spiller in PPR, Ingram in standard. Ingram probably sees more touches. I've had a few rosters thus far where I have both guys, which is nice.

Jennings, only because I think he'll have a higher workload - he also catches passes. But Vereen is going to be heavily involved, so I think this one is a tossup.

Fitzgerald, Floyd is terrible.

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