Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Fantasy Football 2015: My Body Is Ready

# ¿ May 4, 2015 16:48

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# ¿ May 16, 2024 02:33

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

LmaoTheKid posted:

So as someone who knows nothing about the offensive rookies coming in, who's looking like good grabs?

http://brojackson.com/football/rummys-nfl-rookie-dynasty-rankings

Edit to add: For me, I'm all about Agholor, DGB, and Perriman for WRs, and Yeldon, Gordon and Coleman as RBs. But with rookies I always wait until the pre-season to see how the depth chart is shaking out.

# ¿ May 4, 2015 16:57

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Yeah I don't know why people always forget about Olsen when we're talking TE depth. He's perfectly adequate, and really reliable.

Depending on how much of his usage last year was due to his injury recovery, Kelce could easily end the year posting numbers similar to what Jimmy Graham will likely do this year. I don't think there's a chance either of those two outpace Gronk (if Gronk stays healthy), but they're both good bets regardless. Olsen is in the same range, just more consistent and less talented.

Rudolph, Walker, Bennett, Orange Julius, Jordan Cameron, even Witten are all pretty viable options of varying quality/draft point. Then there's a whole fuckload of young guys who are entering their second/third season (when TEs typically blossom), like Ertz, Amaro, Seferian-Jenkins, Eifert, Ebron... TE isn't as shallow as the babytime whiners like to make out, it just takes some actual draft strategy. After all, the guy who takes Gronk in the first round is going to be missing out on Julio Jones or whatever.

# ¿ May 4, 2015 22:13

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Adam Levitan with a good look at the early "winners" of the draft, depth chart wise.

Obviously some of these will change as teams sign promising UDFAs or sign a decent free agent/roster cut, but it's a good take on the depth chart situation for some of these guys. Charles Johnson, Blount, Josh Hill, and yes, CHARLES SIMS are the ones that I'm particularly convinced their respective teams' drafts amount to a vote of confidence.

# ¿ May 4, 2015 22:47

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

I'd definitely go with Bryant, he's the surer bet of the two, and I think he'll break out even more this season.

# ¿ May 4, 2015 23:50

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Maclin is on my Never Draft List this year.

# ¿ May 4, 2015 23:58

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

There's so much depth at QB this year, it's crazy. In addition to the usual big names, and Bridgewater and Tannehill, there's still Romo, Roethlisberger, Rivers...

# ¿ May 6, 2015 15:25

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

LmaoTheKid posted:

Also RE: Ryan, have the Falcons addressed the terrible OL they had?

They took exactly one OL, a kid nobody had ever heard of, in the 7th. :v:

# ¿ May 6, 2015 15:33

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

LmaoTheKid posted:

Good lord, Ryan is going to get battered again isn't he?

They have a new OL coach and are hoping that consistency in personnel will help matters.

So, yes.

# ¿ May 6, 2015 15:47

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Pre-season SOS is as close to irrelevant as an NFL stat gets.

# ¿ May 6, 2015 21:54

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Leperflesh posted:

Ehhhh. I mean, yes, there's bound to be teams that were great last year and not great this year, and vice-versa. But you still can't look at this schedule:
http://www.steelers.com/schedule-and-events/season-schedule.html

And not think "hmm, there's kind of a parade of good teams there."

Last year the Cowboys were supposed to be garbage, the Saints were going to wrap up their division handily, the Seahawks and Niners were going to battle it out for their division title... on and on and on. The NFL changes practically every year.

# ¿ May 6, 2015 22:12

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

LmaoTheKid posted:

I'd take a shot at Cruz after the 6th if he's still there and you've filled a good chunk of your starters.

6th is too rich for my blood, you can get less-flawed WRs in that range still. Unless he really pops in the pre-season, he's a sub-10th flier for me.

# ¿ May 6, 2015 23:03

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

LmaoTheKid posted:

I said after

Much, much after. :argh:

# ¿ May 6, 2015 23:07

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Eh, I'd put Brady in the bottom tier of QB1s. His arm strength is shot and he might even be suspended for a game or two. I'd rather have Big Ben for sure.

Luck though, he's tops. He's tied with Rodgers for #1 QB in my mind. The only thing that lovely team seems to stock up on are talented WRs.

# ¿ May 7, 2015 19:18

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Is that some kind of truncated explanation of pacing and route running, or is OBJ legitimately autistic?

Edit: \/\/\/ Aww. :saddowns:

Franks Happy Place fucked around with this message at 20:17 on May 11, 2015

# ¿ May 11, 2015 20:15

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Whelp, I'll be picking up Brady at the tail end of drafts as a QB2 for sure now. Once he comes back he's going to be slinging hot fire.

# ¿ May 11, 2015 23:33

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

LmaoTheKid posted:

I wouldn't be shocked if he appeals and wins and misses maybe 1 game.

It's possible, but I think it's doubtful. The Rog needs to look tough on the Pats after SpyGate, and this is the kind of poo poo that upsets the bettor community too.

Plus, if he sticks with four games, Brady comes back just in time to play the Colts, and we all know how much the Ginger Hammer loves his big TV ratings.

# ¿ May 11, 2015 23:38

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Gyshall posted:

Gronk is a transcendent talent, I've been seeing him go in the top 5 in some drafts, especially PPR. I think that he is still a good pick in the late first round or so.

I mean, most of the time the gameplan will still be the same - Gronk get open, throw ball to Gronk, Gronk smash, Gronk spike ball.

Also don't underestimate Brady's ability to appeal, hes rich as gently caress and certainly has the lawyers to do so.

If the quality of your lawyers meant dick all in an NFL appeal, both Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson would have played last year. Both of them had a WAY stronger case that their punishments were unfair or not handled properly.

# ¿ May 12, 2015 00:40

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

I'm not making a TE ADP chart until I see pre-season usage for Graham and Kelce. Either one of those dudes could be huge, depending on how they use 'em this year.

Kelce in particular could be anything from just as good-but-inconsistent as he was last year (if Andy refuses to use him more, which is a very Andy thing to do), all the way up to "as good as Gronk", which Kelce is certainly capable of size/talent wise. It really comes down to usage for him.

# ¿ May 13, 2015 17:24

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

LmaoTheKid posted:

Is the Madden curse still a thing because apparently they picked OBJ for the cover.

I thought Madden 2015 was already going to be Richard Sherman? :confused:

Also, no, curses are not a thing.

# ¿ May 14, 2015 00:12

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

LmaoTheKid posted:

Schefter just tweeted OBJ will be on the cover for 16.

You should be more worried about the curse that comes from the fact that I made a blockbuster trade for him in my keeper league.

# ¿ May 14, 2015 00:16

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

LmaoTheKid posted:

Hahah, what blew up in your face previously? My brain isn't functioning right now due to hockey stress.

My 2014/2015 fantasy hockey team:

-Patrick Kane
-Slava Voynov
-Evander Kane
-Sami Vatanen
-Kevin Shattenkirk
-Johan Franzen
-Matthieu Perrault

..etc. etc.

# ¿ May 14, 2015 00:22

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

LmaoTheKid posted:

I even ninja added one more I forgot. Plus there's another two or three dudes I can't even remember losing.

Still came in second. :tipshat:

# ¿ May 14, 2015 00:23

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Metapod posted:

I talked a divulian amount of poo poo.

# ¿ May 14, 2015 06:27

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Fight Club Sandwich posted:

If you aren't talking a steady stream of demoralizing garbage, you are doing fantasy sports incorrectly.

# ¿ May 14, 2015 16:30

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

If you aren't paying :10bux:

for Mock Draft Simulator and then loading the FantasyPros consensus ADPs, I feel bad for you son.

# ¿ May 15, 2015 01:39

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

I'd keep either Paul Richardson or John Brown over Kenny Britt I think.

# ¿ May 16, 2015 18:44

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Metapod posted:

i'd say Austin Seferian-Jenkins is the sleeper tight end of the year

Him and Virgil Green are awesome late rounders.

# ¿ May 19, 2015 02:25

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Gyshall posted:

I'm high on Abdullah as a talent, but Joique is still "good" and I don't see him losing his job to a rookie right off the bat. Also Zach Zenner is a guy too, at best case I see the backfield being a serious RBBC.

Yeah, I don't see him unseating Joique in a fantasy-meaningful way until at least the end of the season. At least not a likely scenario that I want to put a bet down on at this time. We'll see how the splits go in the pre-season, should help answer the question a bit.

drizzle posted:

Yeah no one really thought Sankey was really any good except for a few crazies

It was always a "Shonn Greene sucks" play in my mind. As soon as Sankey showed nothing and Whisenhunt declined to play him much, I was tapping out.

# ¿ May 22, 2015 18:46

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Spoeank posted:

Joique Bell's usage makes him a "young" 29 though.

The Fred Jackson Effect.

# ¿ May 22, 2015 19:50

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Joke's on you suckers, I traded my first round pick this year, no stress for me. :smuggo:

# ¿ Jun 5, 2015 17:06

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Azhais posted:

Good luck starting Jonas Gray as your RB1

Keeper league, I have Jonathan Stewart for an 18th and Jeremy Hill for a 7th. :smug:

My roster this year is going to be gross, especially for a 12 person, actively managed cash league.

# ¿ Jun 5, 2015 18:07

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Ty1990 posted:

Maybe I'm crazy but I've justified it in my own mind. I traded Alshon Jeffery (12th round keeper) for Adrian Peterson (1st round keeper). 12 team league.

I pick 8th in my keeper league draft, and the majority of top backs were kept. The best back there for me at 8 would *maybe* be Alfred Morris. Backs like AP are extremely hard to get your hands on in a keeper league, and I realize that while Alshon at a 12 is much better overall value, I can build my WR core through the fantasy draft. As it stands, I kept AP (1) and Latavius Murray (16), so I can probably go WR in rounds 2 and 3. Tons of WR hit the draft this year (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Randall Cobb just to name the better ones), so if things work out I'll be able to snag one of them and go from there.

A Mistake Was Made.

# ¿ Jun 7, 2015 07:40

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Its Miller Time posted:

Just looking over that list, it seems like there's more "good" RB's than normal. Beyond the names above you also have some very decent prospects in Forsett, Ellington, Lamar Miller, Gore, Ingram, Spiller, Morris, Hyde and the rookies. On the other hand, Julian Edelman and Jordan Matthews are 17 and 18 in ECR. Anyone else notice this trend this year? I'm not sure how comfortable I'd feel relying on names like Keenan Allen, B. Marshall, D. Jackson, Tate, Watkins, Maclin, V. Jax... Even going past 20 in the RB's you have good names - Yeldon, Coleman, Blount, R. Jennings, Abdullah, Sims...

Jonathan Stewart too. He's finally the undisputed #1 RB in a collegiate style offense.

# ¿ Jun 9, 2015 20:32

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

One dude in my keeper league is keeping Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and Adrian Peterson this year. :stare:

Glad I have a workable tandem of Jeremy Hill and Jonathan Stewart locked up as keepers, because those first two rounds are gonna be an RB wasteland.

# ¿ Jun 11, 2015 22:09

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Gyshall posted:

I've been getting Hill in the second round quite regularly, especially starting with Julio in the first.

A Good Move. I can't believe Hill isn't a first rounder.

# ¿ Jun 12, 2015 01:42

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Gyshall posted:

fantasy football is 25% analytics/stats, 25% knowing football/football IQ/knowing which guys actually suck, and 50% luck

In-season roster management is way more important than drafting, too. Even the best drafted team will fall apart if you don't make the right moves.

# ¿ Jun 12, 2015 16:44

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

RCarr posted:

I traded Toby Gerhart for a 4th round pick minutes after the draft last year

Unloaded Zac Stacey for Alshon Jeffery after Week 2. :hfive:

# ¿ Jun 13, 2015 00:25

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

cheese posted:

I've been doing mock drafts/draft simulators to get ready, and I feel like the one spot I'm struggling is once I get into that late RB2/RB3 range. The Latavius Murrays, the Blounts, Randles, Joique Bell, Bernard, etc. What are you guys looking for when taking those backs? Lets say you went WR/WR, got Alfred Morris with your 3rd pick and are looking at taking RB's with your next two picks. Do you want a player who is a reliable starter or the best back in a RBBC? Most of those guys all have huge red flags and I'm trying to figure out which red flags I'm ok with.

Jonathan Stewart is still stupidly cheap, so I doubt his ADP stays down there, but right now he's a 4th rounder and I'd be happy as gently caress with him as an RB2.

Failing that, I'd look at Spiller, Joseph Randle, and Gio Bernard, more or less in that order, as three guys who will likely have both constant utility and reasonable upside.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2015 18:59

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# ¿ May 16, 2024 02:33

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

I like Doug Martin as a value pick for sure, with his ADP in the toilet and that backfield being up for grabs.

I know goons ITT love harping on his "one good game" being the whole story with him, but he had like 2,000 YFS in 2012, which shows he can do it given the right circumstances. Obviously it remains to be seen if those circumstances will ever return, but it's worth a shot at that low price.

# ¿ Jun 23, 2015 23:21

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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