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Wait, so this conclusion won't cause the Eurozone to crack at the seams but instead strengthen it's reactionary factions?
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Jul 12, 2015 02:11
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http://adedy.gr/syllalhthrio1372015/ A general strike has been called in Greece for 7:00PM Monday.
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Jul 13, 2015 19:45
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Slipknot Hoagie posted:In a way, Greece has to crash so that you know for a fact what the rock bottom level level of real productivity is. Defaulting cleanses all debts and gets you to that point, at the cost of the misery of the common Greek. I think that might end up being "Everything is on fire. Please send food." Seems reasonable.
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Jul 13, 2015 19:52
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CommieGIR posted:http://adedy.gr/syllalhthrio1372015/ lol maybe we can get some massive riots too, finally International Communism will rise again, #StalinDidNothingWrong420 in my heart of hearts, I just hope the greeks re-enact the song from Les Miserables and have a referendum to bring back the guillotine, but I think the climate is wrong for baguettes honestly. flat breads just don't have the same look, you know? edit: so its not just another shitpost in the wall, this deal is a loving impossible joke. and its just more EU kick-the-can nonsense. there is not the remotest prospect of Greece raising 50bn through privatisations in the next three years. its loving impossible. Laphroaig fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Jul 13, 2015 |
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Jul 13, 2015 20:06
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Grouchio posted:Wait, so this conclusion won't cause the Eurozone to crack at the seams but instead strengthen it's reactionary factions? Congrats, you are smarter than Varoufakis, who apparently thought it was still 2010. Laphroaig posted:
This isn't really kicking the can though, this is more of a repo to get some of the money back and leave greece to burn. By far the most important point was to not give Greece more money without drastic reforms, than to worry about how much of the existing debt is recoverable. Again, 5 years ago this would be a different story, it was always about the contagion risk more than the cash. tsa fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Jul 13, 2015 |
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Jul 13, 2015 20:45
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So Greece is really hosed now, right? Am I right in thinking there is just no loving way they are going to pay back those debts and they're continuing down the country destroying path of austerity at the same time?
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Jul 13, 2015 20:51
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It's just a question of when this agreement is going to break down.
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Jul 13, 2015 20:52
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Monkey Fracas posted:So Greece is really hosed now, right? Am I right in thinking there is just no loving way they are going to pay back those debts and they're continuing down the country destroying path of austerity at the same time? Yes, pretty much at this point, the pre-referendum deal would have been bad but what the capital freeze has done in just 2 weeks is going to make any recovery soooo much harder. I think Tsipras realizes now the referendum was a huge mistake, unfortunately he should not have been listening to Varoufakis. So long as they enact the reforms though, I'm pretty sure any repayments is at least a half decade away. Mozi posted:It's just a question of when this agreement is going to break down. Hell it's a question if this thing even passes the EZ parliaments (probably, but Finland is acting weird about it) or Greek parliament (a much more uncertain question). tsa fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Jul 13, 2015 |
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Jul 13, 2015 20:53
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It's really interesting hearing Varoufakis side of things on the referendum because from what he has said Tsipras was pretty much immediately "what the gently caress have we done" as soon as the oxi's came in. It sounds like Tsipras was hoping for a 'yes' and Varoufakis a 'no', so it's a really still a mystery what the hell the point of it was.
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Jul 13, 2015 20:57
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Monkey Fracas posted:So Greece is really hosed now, right? Am I right in thinking there is just no loving way they are going to pay back those debts and they're continuing down the country destroying path of austerity at the same time? Yeah, this deal is horrifying and it's unbelievable that Tsiparis agreed to it.
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Jul 13, 2015 20:59
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For those of us only casually following along, what are the main differences between the proposed deal Tsiparis walked out on and the one that was just agreed to? So far it basically sounds identical to the same stuff they held a referendum to reject.
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Jul 13, 2015 21:04
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tirinal posted:For those of us only casually following along, what are the main differences between the proposed deal Tsiparis walked out on and the one that was just agreed to? The one he walked out on was actually a lot better than the one he just agreed to 
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Jul 13, 2015 21:06
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It's like the referendum actually hurt their negotiating position somehow- might just be that everyone had enough time to go "huh, I guess the Greeks leaving the Eurozone wouldn't be allll that bad..." I dunno.
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Jul 13, 2015 21:08
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tirinal posted:For those of us only casually following along, what are the main differences between the proposed deal Tsiparis walked out on and the one that was just agreed to? I think the part that basically makes it so Greece isn't a sovereign country any more is new  Also, this is stuff that needs to be passed by Greece before negiotations can start about lending greece more money.
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Jul 13, 2015 21:14
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So in the scenario that Greece passes a law without consulting "the Institutions" what happens? All banks simultaneously stop issuing credit to Greece? How is that coordinated? They get a sternly-worded letter? It's loving terrible as written, I just don't have any idea how something like that is remotely enforceable in practice. Also, the correct course of action through all this was for Tsipras to walk out on the meeting, tell the creditors to get hosed, re-issue the drachma and figure out a third way forward without allowing the pillaging of the country, but here we are.
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Jul 13, 2015 21:18
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a shameful boehner posted:Also, the correct course of action through all this was for Tsipras to walk out on the meeting, tell the creditors to get hosed, re-issue the drachma and figure out a third way forward without allowing the pillaging of the country, but here we are. I kinda figured this is where it was heading. Seemed like the least-worst option.
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Jul 13, 2015 21:20
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a shameful boehner posted:Also, the correct course of action through all this was for Tsipras to walk out on the meeting, tell the creditors to get hosed, re-issue the drachma and figure out a third way forward without allowing the pillaging of the country, but here we are. If the Greek Public gets what they want, this will happen with or without Tsipras. He's shot his credibility in the foot, his own Finance Minister resigned rather than co-opting any of this that he probably knew was coming. This is going to do major political damage. Al Jazeera not pulling any punches: http://america.aljazeera.com/articl...dium=SocialFlow quote:This is from austerity to austerity squared, Oxford University professor David Stuckler, a co-author of The Body Economic: Why Austerity Kills, told Al Jazeera by email. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 21:31 on Jul 13, 2015 |
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Jul 13, 2015 21:23
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Monkey Fracas posted:It's like the referendum actually hurt their negotiating position somehow- might just be that everyone had enough time to go "huh, I guess the Greeks leaving the Eurozone wouldn't be allll that bad..." Capital freezes for over a week utterly decimate your economy. a shameful boehner posted:So in the scenario that Greece passes a law without consulting "the Institutions" what happens? All banks simultaneously stop issuing credit to Greece? How is that coordinated? They get a sternly-worded letter? They literally admitted they have no way to reissue the Drachma in any reasonable fashion, I don't think people get quite how devastating a Grexit would be right now because Syriza has no plan to do so. Like things are bad now, we would be talking riots and cities burning in days time if they went that route. And yes, if they don't go along their banks / economy gets cratered just like they are now. tsa fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Jul 13, 2015 |
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Jul 13, 2015 21:31
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Monkey Fracas posted:I kinda figured this is where it was heading. Seemed like the least-worst option. Yeah the part that's completely unbelievable to me, if Varoufakis is telling the truth (and I have no reason to doubt him on this), is that the Greek government hadn't taken any concrete measures to prepare for a Grexit. When your leverage is the threat to walk away from the negotiation you kind of need to be able to actually do that for your threat to be credible. Especially in a circumstance where the consequences of default and leaving the currency union may not be as bad as the results of acceding to the demands of the creditors.
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Jul 13, 2015 21:35
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tsa posted:They literally admitted they have no way to reissue the Drachma in any reasonable fashion, I don't think people get quite how devastating a Grexit would be right now because Syriza has no plan to do so. Like things are bad now, we would be talking riots and cities burning in days time if they went that route. That still sounds preferable to effectively surrendering their autonomy to the ECB and agreeing to a plan that has no chance in hell of actually succeeding.
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Jul 13, 2015 21:36
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Monkey Fracas posted:I kinda figured this is where it was heading. Seemed like the least-worst option. Greece will be completely cut off from capital markets and the vast majority of their economy relies on importing unfinished goods, completing them and sending them out. A grexit would send the price of imports through the roof, so what's left of their economy would be much less able to compete due to that cost. They also import most of their food and almost all of their energy. They would probably have to beg Putin just to not freeze through the winter. Or Euro aid, who knows. People who think it wouldn't be an utter catastrophe in the short term have not done the mat. And to be honest the long term might not matter with how bad it would be. Again, they don't even have the printing presses operational to issue new currency!
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Jul 13, 2015 21:37
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tsa posted:They literally admitted they have no way to reissue the Drachma in any reasonable fashion, I don't think people get quite how devastating a Grexit would be right now because Syriza has no plan to do so. Like things are bad now, we would be talking riots and cities burning in days time if they went that route. Except for the problem: This plan is going to fail too.
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Jul 13, 2015 21:38
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There are degrees of failure, though. They aren't Iceland, they just can't give the middle finger and rely on their highly productive industries/ self-sufficiency. Whenever people disagree with me on this point they never elaborate on where food and energy is going to come from post-grexit, who in their right mind would give them more money (Putin??) etc etc. It's easy to say austerity sucks, but at least Ireland isn't a failed state, which is very likely for Greece if they go ahead with it. Things are bad but holy hell they could get so much worse.
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Jul 13, 2015 21:42
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tsa posted:There are degrees of failure, though. They aren't Iceland, they just can't give the middle finger and rely on their highly productive industries/ self-sufficiency. Whenever people disagree with me on this point they never elaborate on where food and energy is going to come from post-grexit, who in their right mind would give them more money (Putin??) etc etc. It's easy to say austerity sucks, but at least Ireland isn't a failed state, which is very likely for Greece. This is just delaying the inevitable, while at the same time destroying the Greek political machine.
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Jul 13, 2015 21:43
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tsa posted:There are degrees of failure, though. They aren't Iceland, they just can't give the middle finger and rely on their highly productive industries/ self-sufficiency. Whenever people disagree with me on this point they never elaborate on where food and energy is going to come from post-grexit, who in their right mind would give them more money (Putin??) etc etc. It's easy to say austerity sucks, but at least Ireland isn't a failed state, which is very likely for Greece if they go ahead with it. Scenario 1: Greece takes the deal, implements the ++austerity measures, drives its economy into the ground even further, sells what little assets it can to pay down part of the debt, and is in this exact scenario again 1-3 years in the future. Scenario 2: Greece says gently caress the deal, exits the union now, endures a brutal period of chaos, but (mostly) preserves its sovereignty and assets. As long as the bailout deal includes austerity measures and the subsuming of Greek political autonomy, there's no way in hell they should take it.
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Jul 13, 2015 21:47
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CommieGIR posted:Except for the problem: This plan is going to fail too. Yep. This plan is sheer loving insanity because it worsens the Greek situation while kicking the can down the road just a little further at the low low cost of surrendering national sovereignity. At this point there is no reason for the Greek side to think the creditor nations have any of their interests in mind, so they're probably facing a period of economic peonage while the state is stripped of assets, followed by a forced Grexit. The only way I can see this deal making sense for Greece is if they think they can use the intervening time period to set up a more orderly Grexit, which probably requires operating in the sort of bad faith that would undermine the whole project. Or they're loving deluded about the other parties motivations and what the consequences of this are, which may very well be the case (see: not preparing for the possibility of a Grexit).
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Jul 13, 2015 21:48
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LGD posted:Yep. This plan is sheer loving insanity because it worsens the Greek situation while kicking the can down the road just a little further at the low low cost of surrendering national sovereignity. At this point there is no reason for the Greek side to think the creditor nations have any of their interests in mind, so they're probably facing a period of economic peonage while the state is stripped of assets, followed by a forced Grexit. The only way I can see this deal making sense for Greece is if they think they can use the intervening time period to set up a more orderly Grexit, which probably requires operating in the sort of bad faith that would undermine the whole project. Or they're loving deluded about the other parties motivations and what the consequences of this are, which may very well be the case (see: not preparing for the possibility of a Grexit). Seriously, at this point, the bailout is just a poor attempt for the creditors to come in for a short period and start strip mining assets. This is not a stability plane or recovery plan, its a creditor exit plan.
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Jul 13, 2015 21:55
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tsa posted:Greece will be completely cut off from capital markets and the vast majority of their economy relies on importing unfinished goods, completing them and sending them out. A grexit would send the price of imports through the roof, so what's left of their economy would be much less able to compete due to that cost. You keep saying this but I don't think you thought this through. The price of imports is only relevant if the products are to be consumed internally, it bears no relevance in the exports. Lets say they import X for 100, pay 20 in wages to assemble/transform it into Y, add 25% profit margin and export that Y for 150. Switch to drachma and devaluate 50% and you get import X for 200 GRD, pay 20 GRD in wages, add 25% profit and export for 275 GRD. 275 GRD < 150, how do you figure that their economy would be less competitive? Sure, any imported products will be more expensive to greek workers if/because they're wages are not increased to keep up with the devaluation but that won't make greek exports less competitive, on the contrary. On top of that by virtue of the devaluation a lot of domestic industries that were unprofitable before become profitable again further reducing the trade deficit and creating jobs internally. And the devaluation will hit everyone the same instead of hitting the poorest the most as is the case with austerity. No, scratch that, devaluation would hit the most those that have the most assets and real estate in the country and consume more imported stuff, ie not the poorest that's for sure.
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Jul 13, 2015 22:07
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Why should Greek citizens work to pay beck this debt? I'm looking for the moral argument here.
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Jul 13, 2015 22:10
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I haven't followed the Greek situation in a while, but this news sounds wildly inconsistent with the result of the referendum and the portrayal of the Greek Prime Minister in the news. Is there any indication that the Greek government will follow through with this agreement, or be able to do so if the Greek population feels like their vote was just thrown back in their face? The whole Greek situation quieted down (at least in terms of international news coverage) for a couple of years, so people seemed to assume the crisis must've cooled off. The consequences being warned of at the moment - would they also only appear after a few more years of negotiations or are the consequences going to kick in immediately?
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Jul 13, 2015 22:19
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MeLKoR posted:You keep saying this but I don't think you thought this through. The price of imports is only relevant if the products are to be consumed internally, it bears no relevance in the exports. They import in Euros and export im Drachmas. With a devaluating currency you will be constantly exposed on the import side, especially when the added value of the production porcess is low and influenced by not just exchange rate fluctuations but the crude price as well. (Greece petrochemical industry, which is a relatively low margin industry, accounts for >30% of exports)
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Jul 13, 2015 22:57
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Radbot posted:Why should Greek citizens work to pay beck this debt? I'm looking for the moral argument here. Well my boy it's like this: if you make a bad loan you shouldn't, but if your corrupt government makes a bad loan in your name then it would be dishonest of MeLKoR fucked around with this message at 23:09 on Jul 13, 2015 |
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Jul 13, 2015 22:57
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tsa posted:Greece will be completely cut off from capital markets and the vast majority of their economy relies on importing unfinished goods, completing them and sending them out. A grexit would send the price of imports through the roof, so what's left of their economy would be much less able to compete due to that cost. They also import most of their food and almost all of their energy. They would probably have to beg Putin just to not freeze through the winter. Or Euro aid, who knows. If you're going to bring math into this, you better show your work.
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Jul 13, 2015 23:04
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Lagotto posted:They import in Euros and export im Drachmas. With a devaluating currency you will be constantly exposed on the import side, especially when the added value of the production porcess is low and influenced by not just exchange rate fluctuations but the crude price as well. (Greece petrochemical industry, which is a relatively low margin industry, accounts for >30% of exports) They adjust their export prices with devaluation just enough to remain competitive in the foreign market which means that if the drachma devaluates and raw materials cost more drachma they also simultaneously get more drachma from selling their products back, the prices in euro don't change in either side of the equation. The only ones left holding the bag are the internal consumers of imports (workers included), not the transformative export industry.
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Jul 13, 2015 23:07
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Greece and Iceland should form their own trading bloc.
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Jul 14, 2015 04:22
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Hungriest Hippo posted:I'll give one thing to Syriza, as much as I hate their dumb guts I have no idea what can be done to actually regenerate the Greek economy. Elimanating all international debt would be an obvious start and the fact that they aren't doing that shows how cynical the new negotiations are. Cracking down on tax evaders would be good but most of the uncollected tax is locked up in London and Manhattan real estate so that's limited. Stimulate the economy, what does Greece actually produce again that can be stimualed - tourism...can Athens be made into the next Barcelona? Kinda doubt it...yoghurt olives and shipping? Ermmm I'll tell ya what can be done: Greece can export its citizens elsewhere and organize their remittances back to greece. Greeks can't find a job in Greece? Boy howdy, does North Dakota have some nice boomtowns just look'n for a new gyro shack!
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Jul 14, 2015 06:13
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MeLKoR posted:
Errrr....why? If devaluation occurs today and I own a mansion or a bunch of Ferraris in Greece they are going to be worth as much in Euro terms as yesterday. If I'm rich chances are I have assets outside the country (i.e stock shares of foreign companies) which don't get affected by the devaluation. If I'm collecting a salary or pension denominated in Drachma, then devaluation hits me a lot harder. Poor people don't have assets they can sell off, or otherwise liquidate into Euros. Also poor people consumes imports like "medicine" so it's going to hurt them a lot more than the rich guy who doesn't get to import another Ferrari or something.
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Jul 14, 2015 06:21
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Rand alPaul posted:Greece and Iceland should form their own trading bloc. the not smart enough to get loans forgiven unlike the fiscally sound Germans fanclub germans have a obsession with fiscal soundness for the same reason that a former alcoholic avoids liquor
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Jul 14, 2015 06:25
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etalian posted:the not smart enough to get loans forgiven unlike the fiscally sound Germans fanclub They go a step further and claim everyone who gets drunk off their rear end even once is a total irredeemable wino and needs cold turkey rehab.
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Jul 14, 2015 06:39
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etalian posted:the not smart enough to get loans forgiven unlike the fiscally sound Germans fanclub Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Ireland are all soon to be members, as well.
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Jul 14, 2015 08:51
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