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As a bit of an update, my TikTok is now awash with anti-EU (with chat about US war machine always wanting more war) rhetoric. Talking about it being finally time to stop letting colonial powers keep stealing all the natural resources, stop toppling govts that support African interests in the name of democracy/freedom of speach, etc. Not sure if it is part of a Chinese/Russian continuation to court Africa onto the side of Russia/China through social media or natural upwelling but probably a bit of both.
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Aug 5, 2023 15:40
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i'm sure china is psyopping you into supporting a nigerien military government
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Aug 5, 2023 16:45
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How the hell is the Nigerian military (far larger than other ECOWAS states) supposed to attack Niger, when even northern Nigeria isn't under control? It seems likely to be a horrible quagmire rivalling the South Africans in Angola or Libya's attempt to occupy Chad. Even if they waltz in and easily rescue Bazoum, they would be foreigners propping up a local leader which is a recipe for insurgency.
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Aug 6, 2023 18:02
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Oh yeah, there's really no good ending here from the moment that enough of the military decided to overthrow the government rather than cooperate with them to fight Islamists. We see that in Mali: the military dictatorship is far less capable and the security situation rapidly degrades. Nigeria may be hoping they can round up enough local forces that they can quickly take the capital and have someone else stabilize the country but uh no.
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Aug 6, 2023 19:42
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Nigerian military is massively larger than Niger's, and there would be others member states contributing. Bazoum was popularly elected so I'd think the people would support his return, but maybe they don't want to risk it. Although the alternative is living with a military junta next door so  Anyway it's probably not happening as it looks like the Nigerian parliament voted against troop deployment: https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news...l-solution.html
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Aug 6, 2023 20:17
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as we all know from recent examples, a larger military with dubious motives will have an easy time with a determined defender on its home turf
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Aug 6, 2023 20:25
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WSJ put out a pretty big article. paywall free link https://archive.ph/MNsi0 quote:Gen. Omar Tchiani had protected Niger’s leaders for 12 years, with a unit of some 700 elite soldiers backed by armored cars. Tchiani’s unit had stopped a coup attempt against Bazoum days ahead of his inauguration. As Bazoum built up the country’s counterterrorism forces, Tchiani’s guard lost out on resources and stature. The president had been weighing for months whether to fire the 57-year-old general, according to people familiar with the matter.
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Aug 6, 2023 20:43
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i say swears online posted:as we all know from recent examples, a larger military with dubious motives will have an easy time with a determined defender on its home turf Lol @ this though: quote:Bazoum fled into the safe room across the hall from his office and phoned aides to say he was confident that U.S.-trained elements of his army would rally to his rescue. Seems like Gen. Tchiani read the Coup d’état handbook: 
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Aug 6, 2023 23:11
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Double-posting because of new developments. There's now a counter-coup going on quote:A former rebel leader and politician in Niger has launched a movement opposing the military government that took power in a July 26 coup, a first sign of internal resistance to army rule in the strategically important Sahel country.
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Aug 9, 2023 15:56
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Thanks for posting that. Not a lot on info seems to be coming out of Niger. It seems like this was more of a palace coup than anything? President tried to fire his praetorian guard who said, "yeah, about that" rather the the coup leaders seeming to have a very large dedicated power bass. Does this new rebel have any support in the military and is this looking like a civil war situation?
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Aug 9, 2023 16:13
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CalvinandHobbes posted:Thanks for posting that. Not a lot on info seems to be coming out of Niger. But that's at least my impression as well. Still, he has to have some support in the rest of the military otherwise he'd get his rear end kicked immediately. Or, maybe the rest of the military is incompetent and/or unprepared as is often the case. As that article says, there are at least some forces that should be capable of doing something but no idea what they want and if there are enough of them. I wonder if a French speaker could find some local sources. When I was traveling to The Gamiba, it was almost impossible to find any information online even though it's a nominally English-speaking country and everyone has phones with internet. But I guess everything is siloed in chat apps and what not and there aren't any terminally online dorks posting on public blogs. Anyway, it looks like "itshappening.gif" quote:West African bloc ECOWAS has approved military intervention in Niger “as soon as possible” to remove its military rulers following last month’s coup, Ivory Coast’s President Alassane Ouattara said Thursday.
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Aug 11, 2023 09:41
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My Tik tok is melting down at the concept of "Western Aligned" ECOWAS members going to war with Niger (and those same wankers outspokenly hope Burkina and Mali climb into it). I thought these people liked spheres of influence and on that basis surely Nigeria deserves to get to tell The Niger what to do if its own people aren't worthy of an opinion. It's going to be loving poo poo though. I was only within spitting distance of Niamey a month or so ago and it was already a bloody tough place. On trying to get news, it is hard as people keep their opinion to themselves in person unless they are far enough removed (say from Ghana or Liberia) to have no better vision than myself. You kinda have to read the tealeaves while trying not to look too inquisitive.
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Aug 11, 2023 09:54
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I still have my doubts ECOWAS will actually do anything, despite that announcement. How would they go about doing this? Looking at a map, it looks to me like ECOWAS would ever Niger from northern Benin or Nigeria. Mali and Burkina Faso are suspended as ECOWAS members (also for coups) and will not support an intervention. Niamey is fairly close to Benin and Nigeria, on the one hand. On the other, North Western Nigeria is not really controlled by Abuja. Northern Benin is more stable but has started to have it's own problems. Seems like just getting to Niger is a very real problem, nevermind figuring out what to do upon arrival.
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Aug 11, 2023 16:03
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The US/EU/IMF do have a lot of influence though and are probably pushing behind the scenes to get ECOWAS to do something. It's not in US/EU interests that Russia continues to gain ground across North Africa and at the same time they would prefer other people to do the actual fighting.
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Aug 11, 2023 16:17
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Electric Wrigglies posted:The US/EU/IMF do have a lot of influence though and are probably pushing behind the scenes to get ECOWAS to do something. It's not in US/EU interests that Russia continues to gain ground across North Africa and at the same time they would prefer other people to do the actual fighting. Governments may be concerned about other governments being couped in neiighboring states as a matter of self-preservation. The US and EU are probably pushing for it but it would be foolish for other countries to just shrug and go "eh, it's fine, probably won't happen here."
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Aug 11, 2023 18:28
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Owling Howl posted:Governments may be concerned about other governments being couped in neiighboring states as a matter of self-preservation. the let several coups happen in between intervention in gambia in 2016 and today
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Aug 11, 2023 19:28
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It may just be a matter of things in the Sahel being very dire: take a peek at the article I linked above about how the military government in Mali has been far less successful at restraining the Islamist insurgency. Niger falling to a military coup probably means a similar trajectory, which means you have Islamist groups operating with free reign through a whole stretch of the region, including Burkina Faso.
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Aug 11, 2023 20:23
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i say swears online posted:the let several coups happen in between intervention in gambia in 2016 and today And that doesn't seem to be working out that great so maybe they're re-thinking it. The good news is that there are some allies in the region  https://bnn.network/conflict-defence/al-qaeda-attacks-wagner-group-at-mali-niger-border-vows-to-block-entry-to-niger/
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Aug 11, 2023 21:44
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Morrow posted:It may just be a matter of things in the Sahel being very dire: take a peek at the article I linked above about how the military government in Mali has been far less successful at restraining the Islamist insurgency. Niger falling to a military coup probably means a similar trajectory, which means you have Islamist groups operating with free reign through a whole stretch of the region, including Burkina Faso. Its curious how Military regimes always seem to be so bad at actually doing the basic things militaries are meant to do and win wars.
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Aug 11, 2023 23:15
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khwarezm posted:Its curious how Military regimes always seem to be so bad at actually doing the basic things militaries are meant to do and win wars. Turns out that having a successful military is mostly done by having a successful state to support such an expensive institution. These military leaders may be good at fighting but they're typically terrible at the balancing act behind most governance. Egypt is a great example of military rule leading to highly repressive stagnation which in turn breeds unrest that the military has a hard time keeping down. They talk about stability but military rule is at the heart of many of their own problems.
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Aug 11, 2023 23:57
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mobby_6kl posted:And that doesn't seem to be working out that great so maybe they're re-thinking it. The good news is that there are some allies in the region Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
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Aug 13, 2023 13:53
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khwarezm posted:Its curious how Military regimes always seem to be so bad at actually doing the basic things militaries are meant to do and win wars. additionally a military junta's biggest internal threat is a strong military who can overthrow them. Security for the Junta requires keeping a strong loyal military security force(republican guard, president guard etc) and a weak, poorly commanded rest of the army. this bodes poorly for doing all the things a military is actually supposed to do.
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Aug 14, 2023 02:00
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CalvinandHobbes posted:additionally a military junta's biggest internal threat is a strong military who can overthrow them. Security for the Junta requires keeping a strong loyal military security force(republican guard, president guard etc) and a weak, poorly commanded rest of the army. this bodes poorly for doing all the things a military is actually supposed to do. On top of that, I have yet to see a Military Junta that can maintain it's sovereignty AND initiate a period of relative economic prosperity for any meaningful amount of time. The only exception that comes to mind is Myanmar, but they've gone through 3 or 4 junta's since it's independence, I'm pretty sure. It's almost like an army isn't meant to govern a state...
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Aug 14, 2023 03:05
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Hundreds of people killed in Darfur. It's pretty long so I'm not going to post the whole thing. It's also depressing and there doesn't seem to be any end to the misery in the area.
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Aug 17, 2023 15:28
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So I've heard that France is very mad with the US over the Niger coup, what's going on there?
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Aug 23, 2023 15:47
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khwarezm posted:So I've heard that France is very mad with the US over the Niger coup, what's going on there? Can't say much without a source as I haven't heard anything. The two nations have shared objectives in that region but that doesn't mean they are on everything.
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Aug 23, 2023 17:37
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Count Roland posted:Can't say much without a source as I haven't heard anything. The two nations have shared objectives in that region but that doesn't mean they are on everything. According to Politico, the French government is somewhat displeased with the coup and would like an armed response from other countries in the region to restore the former president. However, the US is negotiating with the junta to restore democracy, or perhaps some other alternative, which the French feels legitimizes the junta and undermines their efforts. I feel like a war has the potential to become a catastrophic ordeal which is going to wreck a lot of communities and get a lot of people killed.
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Aug 23, 2023 22:25
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With Prigo et al being toast now, maybe the junta's potential backers would be out of the picture, hopefully making them more included to back off peacefully. (With promises to definitely not blow them up in an airplane later)
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Aug 23, 2023 23:00
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Yes this does bring into question Wagner's influence in the region. I doubt there will be some sort of Wagner uprising v2 but who knows, stranger things have happened. As far as the France v US question, that difference makes sense. I think an armed intervention would be absolute insanity, an instant quagmire for any country that gets involved. That France is pushing others to do the fighting isn't surprising, but is irresponsible. The US probably feels it has enough on its plate at the moment to risk some conflagration in the Sahel.
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Aug 24, 2023 01:09
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France has had a couple reasonably successful recent military interventions in West Africa. Still, Niger seems like it would probably not work so well, and France can probably keep Agadez as a fief whichever way the wind blows in Niamey since whatever Nigerien government there is is going to want the foreign exchange that comes from there, since it’s not like they have any other exports.
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Aug 27, 2023 20:56
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66654965 Seems like its coup season Gabon is a bit trickier than Niger. While Niger seems to be a palace coup of a functional democracy by disgruntled presidential guard, Gabon at least has the PR of being in response to a fradulent election. Gabon also seems outside of ECOWAS sphere of influence so unlikely they will do much in response.
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Aug 30, 2023 09:03
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CalvinandHobbes posted:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66654965 there was a very interesting piece about niger in the new left review's sidecar section: https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/rule-by-junta which argues that "functional democracy" is a bit of a misnomer for bazoum's government i suspect that gabon is simply less important geopolitically than niger (seen from europe and the US), but i really do not know enough about this to make any serious claims
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Aug 30, 2023 10:29
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Some quick Gabon background, because I didn't know poo poo: French speaking, like much of the region. Lots of oil, very poor. The president that was just overthrown is Ali Bongo, in power since 09. He took over from his father, Omar Bongo, who was in since 67. So while this coup is ostensibly about an election I think it's safe to say Gabon doesn't have very many fair elections.
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Aug 30, 2023 13:45
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I've read that Gabon (along with the cooler Congo next door) is one of the most stable and prosperous countries in Africa. I guess that probably wasn't true, or am I overestimating how much this coup will change things?
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Aug 30, 2023 14:39
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khwarezm posted:I've read that Gabon (along with the cooler Congo next door) is one of the most stable and prosperous countries in Africa. I guess that probably wasn't true, or am I overestimating how much this coup will change things? Gabon is "stable" in the sense there's been a long running dictatorship controlling the political scene and "prosperous" in that it's always had some oil wealth to pad government finances. But Baby Bongo has faced coup attempts before: he was hospitalized a few years back and hasn't really recovered. So his personal control of the government has broken down.
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Aug 30, 2023 15:02
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gabon has a high gdp per capita but it's not at all prosperous because only a few people benefit from all that oil money
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Aug 30, 2023 15:06
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When looking at inequality one can use the Gini coefficient. 0 being wealth distributed perfectly equally, 1 being one person owning everything, everyone else has nothing. Gabon does much better than its neighbors and sub-sarahan Africa generally on that score, surprisingly. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient e: typo e2: mixed up my numbers Count Roland fucked around with this message at 16:45 on Aug 30, 2023 |
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Aug 30, 2023 15:14
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Count Roland posted:When looking at inequality one can use the Gini coefficient. 1 being wealth distributed perfectly equally, 0 being one person owning everything, everyone else has nothing. Isn't it the other way around?
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Aug 30, 2023 15:48
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Per posted:Isn't it the other way around? Yes. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient ). Gini* (edit: not all caps. I always thought this was an acronym for something, not someone's name) has some major issues though in Africa in that a country that is miserably poor, but everyone is poor, would do better. Like DRC does "better" than Namibia, Botswana, Colombia, and Brazil, and Yemen does "better" than the United States, Turkey, and literally all of Latin America except Cuba (tied). GDP per capita likewise has major issues, in that in a country like Namibia or Botswana, or most notably Equatorial Guinea which has a GDP per capita on par with the Balkans but is ... not even close to as developed. IMHO the HDI is by far the best simple metric of quality of life for an "average" person in a country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index Gabon actually does decently there too, but not having been to Gabon or knowing anything about it, I can't say how accurate that is. It seems pretty spot on for everywhere I am aware of though. Saladman fucked around with this message at 16:16 on Aug 30, 2023 |
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Aug 30, 2023 16:13
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It is a bit of old news but there was the brewing of another coup in Burkina last week. I heard it through the week so of course it had little chance of being successful (if I heard about it, the grown ups that really care also had to have heard about it) and by the end of the week it was reported as closed down. I have no idea of if it was just a local discontent or externally supported or whatever but the nature of the preparations I knew about it was a bit more than just one local unit getting antsy. In any event, the region remains hard yards even without Ukraine sending guys down to kill Africans in their quest to upset Russia at every turn.
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Oct 2, 2023 19:04
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