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Peel
Dec 3, 2007

kustomkarkommando posted:

The EAC has also committed themselves to establishing a common currency by 2023, the relative good relations between it's members and increasing economic co-operation on big projects like Kenya's much vaunted Lamu transport corridor makes this seem increasingly more likely - there are of course still political aspirations from it's individual members that may get in the way of implementing the plan and it really isn't off the ground properly yet but it probably is one of the more realistic projects at the moment.

How is this plan responding to the Euro's problems?

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Peel
Dec 3, 2007

kustomkarkommando posted:

After looking up some more detailed policy docs there seems to be a great emphasis on enforcing fiscal discipline bearing the Eurozone issues in mind

For the record the current convergence targets for the EAC common currency are:

Headline inflation <8%
Fiscal deficit (including grants) <3% of GDP
Gross public debt at <50% of GDP
Reserve coverage of 4.5 months of imports

These need to be reached and maintained for three years, I think Kenya is the closest to achieving them off the top of my head but they are the strongest economy in the region - it seems massively unlikely Burundi could ever hit targets like that.

There are also three "indicative criteria" which don't appear to be prerequisites and are pretty out there:
Ceilings on core inflation <5%
Fiscal deficit (excluding grants) <6% of GDP
A tax-to-GDP ratio floor of 25%

This is actually worrying. A lack of fiscal discipline isn't the problem with the Eurozone, and the ability of unified currencies to compel fiscal discipline is the cause of its dismal economic performance since 2010. Fiscal discipline is central to the EU establishment's line but, without going into too much detail in the wrong thread, that line is designed to protect European political interests and is largely false. If single currency work elsewhere is still working from that playbook they're setting countries up for the same problems the Eurozone has had.

However, 2023 is a long way off, and it could just be a strategic rhetorical focus or an out of date holdover. They have plenty of time to work out just how it will work. If they add structures to deal with different rates of economic development and the need for deficit spending in recessions, they should do better than the Euro.

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