Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

So what's going on with those nascent border conflicts in South Sudan? Are the neghbouring countries nibbling off their preferred bits during the civil war, or are they worried about destabilising the area further or what?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

Ianiniho posted:

Some major déjà vu here.

CAR is a huge mess and has been since decolonisation, i'm not convinced the peacekeepers could've done much without actually shooting, and they are really not supposed to do that

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

is there any reason to believe that the coupers are involved with dicko? obviously allying with a populist religious movement is a move that makes sense as far as securing legitimacy is concerned, but do we actually know anything about these people?

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

that seems ominous. any indication as to why they're acting this drastically?

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

so museveni thinks he has a winning hand and is probably just going to keep doing this until it blows up in his face or he keels over? grim

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

they should probably stop giving oyy thea peace prize, shouldn't they

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

don't the french have a fairly heavy military presence in mali still? wouldn't expect the government to fall without french sanction

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

GreyjoyBastard posted:

Some military leaders who want to get rich? This isn't even the first recent junta, it's not like they wouldn't have considered it without the insidious whispers of the CIA. Non westerners have agency sometimes.

probably the french at least okayed this. west african special forces have pretty tight institutional connections to the french military and unless i misremember this guy is married to a french woman and a former legionnaire

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

Count Roland posted:

Are international journalists allowed to report from Ethiopia? I find the lack of reliable sources to be odd given the scale and international character of this conflict. I basically only see Tigray get mentioned but little mention of Oromia or the OLA.

total press blackouts has become standard practice in dealing with internal conflicts over... i'd say the last five to ten years? i think they've realised that they can actually just turn off the internet and refuse to guarantee reporters' safety and foreigners will actually not take the risk, and because of the political economy of the media it actually won't be a big deal

it seems a part of the complete disintegration of the informal ethics of government that's been going on over the past years. at some point the forces that established a sort of governmental common-sense just atrophied and now various powerful people are pushing against it and finding that there's nothing much there. even in syria, a very well-covered war, you had blackout zones and the whole weird thing with the white helmets was going on

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

PawParole posted:

if you include militias then that is an undercount. A lot of them were given only machetes and sent out to fight people with tanks and artillery, because the state cannot trust them not to turn their weapons on the government.

I believe the 23rd division was totally destroyed back in November too, which means that all of the largest command either defected or was destroyed.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/ethiopia/army-orbat-2011.htm

Here is the order of battle for the Ethiopian army from 2011, listing the ethnicities of the officer corps of each division. It misspells Tigray as Tigre ( a completely different nationality), but otherwise is correct. One of the reasons for the tigrayan success is that 90 percent of officers are tigrayan.

so did nobody tell abiy this before he sent in the army or what in the world was he thinking?

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

the obvious drone footage means that it can't be very old and they're holding aloft what looks sort of what the TPLF flag if i squint, but that's mostly the red+yellow/orange triangle shape which i suppose is a fairly general design and could also belong to other groups

e. by "not very old" i mean "from the present conflict", not "within the last few weeks" to be clear

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER


siege of sarajevo joke i assume

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

CalvinandHobbes posted:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66654965

Seems like its coup season
Gabon is a bit trickier than Niger. While Niger seems to be a palace coup of a functional democracy by disgruntled presidential guard, Gabon at least has the PR of being in response to a fradulent election. Gabon also seems outside of ECOWAS sphere of influence so unlikely they will do much in response.

there was a very interesting piece about niger in the new left review's sidecar section:

https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/rule-by-junta

which argues that "functional democracy" is a bit of a misnomer for bazoum's government

i suspect that gabon is simply less important geopolitically than niger (seen from europe and the US), but i really do not know enough about this to make any serious claims

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply