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Strudel Man posted:Yeah, nuclear winter from the burning of the world's major cities is what would be the more relevant global concern, as far as the species goes. I'm not entirely convinced that nuclear winter would be nearly as serious as has been suggested in the past. There were a lot of really clumsy assumptions made in the models that produced those predictions, and the same people who pushed the nuclear winter theory the strongest also made dire predictions about oil well fires in the Middle East that didn't pan out. That said, it's obviously not something I'd like to see experimentally tested.
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Jul 19, 2015 02:09
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| # ¿ May 18, 2024 21:19 |
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Truga posted:IMHO universal disarmament can't happen any more. I think there's still a possible path to disarmament. Nuclear weapons are very expensive to maintain, so some powers might eventually be persuaded to dismantle under a mutual defense treaty (e.g. Britain, France, Israel, with a guarantee of support from the US) or otherwise through a brokered process overseen by outside powers (e.g. India, Pakistan). That leaves the US, Russia, and China; and once the US and Russia reduce their stockpiles substantially, it's very possible China would be open to negotiating a disarmament since they could be assured that their enormous population and army would guarantee territorial integrity. I'm not saying it would be easy at all - in fact, I think it would take enormous and prolonged effort, and it would have to remain a priority policy for key governments for many years. And even after all that, it might still fail, at least on the first attempt. But I don't think it's permanently impossible.
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Jul 19, 2015 02:19
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