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Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
No clue why we don't have a dedicated thread for predictIt so here it is. Talk about your positions and why other people's bets are dumb. Also be sure to link to this thread from now on when you call out idiots so that they can put their money where their mouth is.

Anyways I'm really glad I didn't buy any 'Yes' shares for the Republican party rather than a shitload of 'No's across all the certain-to-be-losers. Basically bought 'No' on everyone except Bush, Walker, Rubio, & Trump.

Also :lol: at all the idiots who thought Putin was going to be thrown out of office. What the gently caress

edit: Alright time for a serious OP since a lot of you guys don't know how this works.

https://www.predictit.org

What is PredictIt? :
Are you someone who regularly gets frustrated when the general public gets worked into a frenzy over something you know to be impossible, or blown out of proportion? Do your friends, family, and coworkers generally hand-wave away your attempts at reasoning against the screaming heads on the television, only to forget you'd even said anything about it a week later? What if I told you there was this magical website where you could make money off this phenomenon? You'll still be that lone jerk who ruins conversations at happy hour but at least you'll have the beer money covered.

PredictIt is a "predictive market" that operates sort of like a stock market, but is different in a few key ways. As a trader you can buy & sell shares of a certain real-world event occurring at some point in the future. These shares can be bought & sold for any amount between $.01 and $.99. If the event occurs, the 'Yes' shares settle at $1.00 while the 'No' shares become worthless while if the event doesn't occur, becomes impossible, or simply passes its expiration, then the 'No' shares settle at $1.00. Easy peasy.

So I can trade these, too?
Yes! If you've bought shares you don't have to wait for the deadline! You can turn around and offer your shares right back onto the market at a higher price. Know that a certain event is a sure bet, but will have huge swings in public opinion in the meantime? Buy low, wait for a scandal to break, then sell high! Once the media frenzy passes over the price will settle again and you can buy right back in at the low price! For a good example of this: check out the Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon market over the past 90 days.

This sounds shady... is it legal?
Yep. The parent company has a no-action letter from the CFTC. So unlike InTrade they went to the CFTC before launching the site to make sure everything they did was kosher. The biggest restraint imposed on them is the $850 maximum buy-in to any one market. So basically if you get drunk and dumb the most you can lose on any one bet is $850. Please don't drink and trade.

So what's the catch?
PredictIt only charges you 10% of your winnings and then a 5% withdrawal fee. What this means is that if your shares settle, you only pay a cut of what you made. So for example if you bought a share at $.20 and had it settle at $1.00, you only pay the 10% off the $.80 you made in profit, in this case being $.08. The other time they charge is a straight 5% withdrawal fee. Because of that if you're only planning on betting once then cashing out, you shouldn't purchase any shares around .94 or higher as the withdrawal fee will sap all your earnings anyways. However if you plan on re-investing your winnings you can run with much tighter margins as there's no charge for buying shares.

Helpful Hints :
  • READ THE ACTUAL RULES OF THE MARKET BEFORE BUYING ANYTHING
  • READ THE ACTUAL RULES OF THE MARKET BEFORE BUYING ANYTHING
  • Don't bet any more money than you're willing to watch vanish before your eyes
  • Don't take advice from the comments section
  • Don't place bets when you're drunk
  • Markets are very volatile when they first open. Subscribing to their email alerts is a good way to get the jump on a new market when it's being its most silly.
  • Most other traders are politics nerds like yourself. You probably aren't going to 'outsmart' the market via day-trading on chicken-littling & rumors from tabloid rags. This is no longer the case. The userbase has grown significantly since writing this and there are way more idiots you can grift. Stay calm, keep a clear head, and-
  • DON'T BUY THE HYPE

FAQ:

Jewel Repetition posted:

[...] if someone bets right, do they always make at least some money for it?
It depends. Here's a basic example:

Say you watch the poll reports and already know the results before the market closes for it, so it's a guaranteed win. The market is at 99-1 and you buy a single share of 'Yes' at $.99. An hour later the market closes and your share settles at $1.00, netting you a profit of $.01. The profit tax is taken out immediately, in this case being .0001*. So your ultimate balance is $0.999.

At this point two things can happen: you can either cash out, triggering the second 5% withdrawal fee, costing you $.0499 and putting your final withdrawal at $0.9491. This would be a loss for you. Second option is to continue buying into certain 99-1 markets, each one only charging the 10% profit. Eventually you will break even and come out ahead of the 5% withdrawal fee and make a profit. This will take a while though, but it's also safe.

Fortune favors the bold!

*
I don't actually know how they take the profit fees out of single cents because their accounting only seems to go three digits.

Do Not Resuscitate posted:

When a new market opens, how many total shares are available to begin with? Or am I misunderstanding how it's set up?
None. Shares initially have to be created by the traders. When a new market opens people can create offers on yes or no. Every offer automatically creates a counter-offer that someone else can purchase.

So for example with the Hillary being prosecuted market: Initially someone could have looked at the empty market and said 'I think there's a 60% chance she'll be prosecuted' and offers to purchase 'yes' for $.60. That will also create a share of 'no' at $.40. If someone also thinks that 'no' offer at $.40 is worthwhile and purchases it, both traders get their respective share. Eventually enough people do this and the market will settle.

Also at this point traders who already own shares can also offer theirs back up for sale at whatever price they wish. If someone already has a 'buy' order at that price, it goes through. If not, it goes up on the market and waits for someone to purchase it. Eventually it will become entirely sustained by already existing shares being traded and barring yooge swings or upsets not many more will be created.

This is why the markets are so volatile when they're first created: there's so little volume that even small purchases can cause gigantic swings.

JosefStalinator posted:

Can we just add a big bolded DONT PLAY THE POLL MARKETS to the OP?
:siren: DON'T PLAY THE POLL MARKETS :siren:

DJ BK posted:

Sorry if the answer is obvious, will one of you guys explain the "linking of markets" idea to me?
Answer:

tinstaach posted:

This is too basic, but the general idea is that if you buy shares in a multi-option market in such a way that you can't lose on all of them (buying No shares for multiple people in the RNOM market for example), they'll credit you so that the cost of those shares is the maximum amount of money you stand to lose instead of the full price.


zeal posted:

this seems like a great way to make money off being a news junkie, how do you go about getting started?
https://www.predictit.org/ :ocelot:

Necc0 has issued a correction as of 00:17 on Oct 30, 2015

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abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


thanks for this.

also, seems like buying no on the Rs winning the white house is a great bet. $.54 to win a dollar on the event that Ds win the white house? heck yes.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
The R-370 sweep is another spot to make ez$$$

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


which bet's that?

BougieBitch
Oct 2, 2013

Basic as hell
For bets that far out though, what you are actually betting on is the site being functional long enough for you to cash out.

BougieBitch has issued a correction as of 15:45 on Aug 21, 2015

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

BougieBitch posted:

For bets that far out though, what you are actually betting on is the site being functional long enough for you to cash out.

I met with the CEO and some of their engineers a few weeks ago. The site is actually a subsidiary of Aristotle so they aren't going anywhere anytime soon. That plus the no-action letter makes me think they're gonna be around for a long time.

Also fun fact: The Republican debate alone pulled over 100k trades :eng101:

Necc0 has issued a correction as of 16:00 on Aug 21, 2015

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


oh, is r-370 the bet about the Rs taking the WH, senate, and house? yea, a no there seems pretty drat safe.

BougieBitch
Oct 2, 2013

Basic as hell

Abel Wingnut posted:

oh, is r-370 the bet about the Rs taking the WH, senate, and house? yea, a no there seems pretty drat safe.

No, he's talking about margin of victory for the presidential election. 370 or more EV (Which is absurdly unlikely because just California, New York, etc. add up to more than enough to make it virtually impossible).

(The bet you are talking about is actually kind of cruddy, you are better off betting on presidential outcomes, because Dems aren't getting the senate without getting the presidency and the return on one bet is better than the other.)

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

Abel Wingnut posted:

oh, is r-370 the bet about the Rs taking the WH, senate, and house? yea, a no there seems pretty drat safe.

No it's that they'll sweep the presidential election with 370 or more electoral votes

https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1322#data1

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
This site is great for making really safe bets. 7% return on Warren not running for president? Sure

FairGame
Jul 24, 2001

Der Kommander

I have a poo poo load of Bernie and Trump Nos, and I regret both since it'll take forever for these markets to resolve and in the meantime I don't have the liquidity to fleece morons in the short term.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
I've got some Nos on the Bern even though I'll be voting for him and I'm really glad I held off on buying anything related to Trump, yes OR no. I still have no clue how that fucker's gonna shake out

BougieBitch
Oct 2, 2013

Basic as hell
Since we brought it up, here's what the map looks like Dems only win states they had 55% or more of the vote for in the last election:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/5PpWL

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


hmm, i'm not even seeing the r-370 bet. and yea, agreed you're way better off betting on the WH outcome given the prices.

e: thanks for the link

abelwingnut has issued a correction as of 16:13 on Aug 21, 2015

BougieBitch
Oct 2, 2013

Basic as hell

Abel Wingnut posted:

hmm, i'm not even seeing the r-370 bet. and yea, agreed you're way better off betting on the WH outcome given the prices.

https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1322#data1

The actual issue with this one is that there are barely any shares for sale.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
That's why I want this site to catch on with the AM-radio crowd.

Free money.

BougieBitch
Oct 2, 2013

Basic as hell
https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleMarket?marketId=1532#sthash.DwDYK14M.dpbs

This is probably my favorite free money one, since it will probably close sooner than the rest of the primary stuff.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

BougieBitch posted:

https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleMarket?marketId=1532#sthash.DwDYK14M.dpbs

This is probably my favorite free money one, since it will probably close sooner than the rest of the primary stuff.

Are you buying No on Bernie & Hillary? Dunno who else you would consider a super-safe bet.

I bought in on the Republican side on this one though- Huckabee & Santorum will milk their primary for every cent it's worth. No way they'll be dropping first.

BougieBitch
Oct 2, 2013

Basic as hell
The problem with both markets is that the buy no and sell no are so far apart that the cost of getting in is too high. I grabbed the last handful of discount no shares, but that's it.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

If you don't think Biden will run you can double your money.

Or make 1% in ten days with "Will Al Gore announce by August 31st?"

platzapS has issued a correction as of 17:51 on Aug 21, 2015

tinstaach
Aug 3, 2010

MAGNetic AttITUDE


Necc0 posted:

This site is great for making really safe bets. 7% return on Warren not running for president? Sure

If I'm reading their rules right, don't they take a 1% cut on all profits, plus 5% on withdrawals?

BougieBitch
Oct 2, 2013

Basic as hell
https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1274#data1

I love this site. Comments are just what you'd think

fronz
Apr 7, 2009



Lipstick Apathy
I don't really understand why you'd make longterm bets with small margins of error. theres a 5% withdrawal fee and you won't see the money for so long you've essentially lost money. bet on sure things that close soon, like "donald trump will be >20 in the polls on aug 31" was selling for 50/50 for a while

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

platzapS posted:

If you don't think Biden will run you can double your money.

I'm bummed that I bought against him running before the rumors flared up

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

tinstaach posted:

If I'm reading their rules right, don't they take a 1% cut on all profits, plus 5% on withdrawals?

Yes.

Another fun fact: That same meeting where I met the CEO & crew I also met some of their most prominent traders. The guy who made the most money, something to the tune of several tens of thousands of dollars, simply maxed out polling markets between the time the poll was announced and the market closed. You can make pretty good money even on $.99 markets if you know what you're doing.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

fronz posted:

I don't really understand why you'd make longterm bets with small margins of error. theres a 5% withdrawal fee and you won't see the money for so long you've essentially lost money. bet on sure things that close soon, like "donald trump will be >20 in the polls on aug 31" was selling for 50/50 for a while

Even if the market doesn't close for years you can still just sell your shares once the market catches up to reality. So for example 5 months ago you could have bought against Rand Paul and be selling his shares now at a pretty decent profit.

railroad terror
Jul 2, 2007

choo choo
I bought it on the "Joe Doesn't Run" at 48 thru 50 cents per share. I just don't see it happening. Gonna keep my eyes on the news next couple weeks though

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
Technically he has until early November to declare as that's when the first states start closing registrations. So there's still a good deal of time for him to jump in.

misdirectomy
Feb 19, 2008
Are you guys in the US? I tried to sign up but it said it wasn't available in my location. Do you think it's a glitch, or is it a state by state thing? I want to make easy money off the political delusions of others.

Wanamingo
Feb 22, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

tinstaach posted:

If I'm reading their rules right, don't they take a 1% cut on all profits, plus 5% on withdrawals?

It's actually 10% on all profits, plus 5% for withdrawals.

misdirectomy posted:

Are you guys in the US? I tried to sign up but it said it wasn't available in my location. Do you think it's a glitch, or is it a state by state thing? I want to make easy money off the political delusions of others.

It isn't available in some states that have strict online gambling laws. There's a list on wikipedia but I don't know how accurate it is, because I'm in Washington and I signed up just fine.

JeffersonClay
Jun 17, 2003

by R. Guyovich
Trump is at 22 cents to win the nomination. I'm betting that price will go up before he implodes.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


yea, i'm buying lots of yes on trump. should be able to make a good profit on that after the next debate or two. really hoping he lasts and wins the iowa caucus. that price would soar.

tinstaach
Aug 3, 2010

MAGNetic AttITUDE


Wanamingo posted:

It's actually 10% on all profits, plus 5% for withdrawals.

Ah, I mistakenly believed that they would take 10 cents out of every dollar share, because I don't know what profit means.

FairGame
Jul 24, 2001

Der Kommander

JeffersonClay posted:

Trump is at 22 cents to win the nomination. I'm betting that price will go up before he implodes.

Yeah I'm so annoyed. Before the first debate, I had a few hundred shares of Trump No at like 84 cents each. Then I sold them all at 89 before jumping back in at 81. Except now it is 77 and I clearly rejoined too early. I mean, I will still make a nice profit, but I clearly underestimated the stupidity of the market

JeffersonClay
Jun 17, 2003

by R. Guyovich
Hillary to be president is also crazy low at 46. Swallow your berniepride and make some dollaz.

FairGame
Jul 24, 2001

Der Kommander

JeffersonClay posted:

Hillary to be president is also crazy low at 46. Swallow your berniepride and make some dollaz.

This is bad advice. Not because she's unlikely to win, but because tying your money up for 15 months when there are tons of easier bets is a waste.

Hillary Presidential shares won't increase until after she wins the primary. And you can bet on her winning the primary, make nearly as much, and have it resolve sooner.

(In my opinion Its not worth it to bet on anything but a sure thing on this site. Patience will let you rip off the stupids, just more slowly than you'd like.)

Tenasscity
Jan 1, 2010




I bought 80 shares of Bernie getting the nomination. When he surges, I'll sell for a profit. Then buy Hillary yes shares. So either I make ~80$. Or Bernie is the candidate. Win/win bitches.

Tenasscity has issued a correction as of 04:35 on Aug 22, 2015

StateOwned
Dec 30, 2005

this lane closed
I suspect I could make some money by just making the most cynical possible bets

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

thoughts? most everything here is in the short-to-medium term but i'm kinda happy with my portfolio where it's at through september 1 at least. i'm prepared to cash out a few of them just for more day-trading options since things are too crazy not to

bernmentum is loving me, i think i need to hold that into january

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Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

Aliquid posted:

thoughts? most everything here is in the short-to-medium term but i'm kinda happy with my portfolio where it's at through september 1 at least. i'm prepared to cash out a few of them just for more day-trading options since things are too crazy not to

bernmentum is loving me, i think i need to hold that into january



Are you riding the Biden rumors or do you think he's actually gonna run? If you're riding the rumors I wouldn't get any closer to the registration deadlines than maybe late September.

Also I dunno when you bought yes on R-Money but if it was before the rumors sprang up just a few days ago then good job. If nothing else comes out of that by the end of the week or maybe next week I'd sell though.

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