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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

my portfolio hasn't seriously changed in a month; I bought romney shares at .05 in the event of a multi-round convention

same with biden; i think out of everyone i'm ready to sell him the fastest

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Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.
Buy up those Bush nos.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

lol bidenrun shot up from .51 to .58 this afternoon and there's still like 78 shares left at that price. i'm out

Zeta Taskforce
Jun 27, 2002

Not on here (yet) but when I go there I found the current prices for the Republican nomination. When you add these numbers up you get 224%. Is there some way to exploit this oddity, like somehow bet against all of them and make a risk free bet?

I read the FAQ and I know you lose 5% when you redeem your money, it might be tedious to set up the bets, and you would need to put up a lot of money on the lower tier for a very small payout, but there is no way Ben Carson has a 13% chance, Jindal 7% or Rand 12%

Jeb Bush 39¢
Marco Rubio 27¢
Scott Walker 24¢
Donald Trump 20¢
John Kasich 16¢
Ted Cruz 15¢
Carly Fiorina 14¢
Ben Carson 13¢
Rand Paul 12¢
Chris Christie 11¢
Mitt Romney 7¢
Bobby Jindal 7¢
Mike Huckabee 6¢
Rick Santorum 6¢
Rick Perry 5¢
Lindsey Graham 3¢
Paul Ryan 2¢
Mike Pence 2¢
George Pataki 2¢
Sarah Palin 1¢
Susana Martinez 1¢

FairGame
Jul 24, 2001

Der Kommander

Zeta Taskforce posted:

Not on here (yet) but when I go there I found the current prices for the Republican nomination. When you add these numbers up you get 224%. Is there some way to exploit this oddity, like somehow bet against all of them and make a risk free bet?

I read the FAQ and I know you lose 5% when you redeem your money, it might be tedious to set up the bets, and you would need to put up a lot of money on the lower tier for a very small payout, but there is no way Ben Carson has a 13% chance, Jindal 7% or Rand 12%

Jeb Bush 39¢
Marco Rubio 27¢
Scott Walker 24¢
Donald Trump 20¢
John Kasich 16¢
Ted Cruz 15¢
Carly Fiorina 14¢
Ben Carson 13¢
Rand Paul 12¢
Chris Christie 11¢
Mitt Romney 7¢
Bobby Jindal 7¢
Mike Huckabee 6¢
Rick Santorum 6¢
Rick Perry 5¢
Lindsey Graham 3¢
Paul Ryan 2¢
Mike Pence 2¢
George Pataki 2¢
Sarah Palin 1¢
Susana Martinez 1¢

This is a waste of time and budget. First of all, there aren't sufficient volumes of No shares being sold at anything below like 97 cents for basically everyone from Carson on down. Second, as you say, it would require massive investments to make roughly a 2% profit. Third, you would not see those profits until next summer at the convention. Fourth, if you don't mind investing tons of money for little return, you can do that for the sure thing bets each week (direction of country, Obama approval, congress approval). There is always some on sale at 98 or 99 cents even after the result is known, since who the hell releases a poll after like 7pm on a Friday?

NotWearingPants
Jan 3, 2006

by Nyc_Tattoo
Nap Ghost
Isn't gambling on a presidential election a federal crime?

Wanamingo
Feb 22, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

NotWearingPants posted:

Isn't gambling on a presidential election a federal crime?

No?

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

NotWearingPants posted:

Isn't gambling on a presidential election a federal crime?

gambling sites are people, my friend

Wanamingo
Feb 22, 2008

by FactsAreUseless
Prediction markets aren't exactly a new thing. Predictit in particular went ahead and cleared themselves with the CFTC in advance, so they wont end up getting their poo poo kicked in like Intrade did.

NotWearingPants
Jan 3, 2006

by Nyc_Tattoo
Nap Ghost
oh this is pretty cool. Bernie Sanders is going to make me rich.

Thump!
Nov 25, 2007

Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!



NotWearingPants posted:

oh this is pretty cool. Bernie Sanders is going to make me rich.

And then he's gonna make you dead :bernget:

JeffersonClay
Jun 17, 2003

by R. Guyovich

NotWearingPants posted:

oh this is pretty cool. Bernie Sanders is going to make me rich.

He can't win. But you might!

Wanamingo
Feb 22, 2008

by FactsAreUseless
Joe Biden better not loving run. :argh:

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Wanamingo posted:

Joe Biden better not loving run. :argh:

Seriously. Don't gently caress me on this, Diamond Joe.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
He's not going to run. Today's rumor was he was talking to Elizabeth Warren.

1 - It's sort of the Vice President's job to talk to Senators
2 - She's already said a bajillion times she has no interest in running.

And Obama giving him his 'blessing' is just trollbama doing his thing. He's not running.

He's not running.

If I keep saying it he won't run.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

holy poo poo, biden at 73/30? lol god dammit

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK
At this point I almost feel like I might as well buy up the nos to max because gently caress it.

Come on Big O, talk some sense into your boy.

railroad terror
Jul 2, 2007

choo choo
Christ. I bought No shares waaaayyy too early. First boneheaded move I've made on this site.

Now, we wait.....

AARP LARPer
Feb 19, 2005

THE DARK SIDE OF SCIENCE BREEDS A WEAPON OF WAR

Buglord

AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:43 on Jan 23, 2016

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Do Not Resuscitate posted:

I hate to break it to you all, but he's gonna run. He hasn't done a single thing that would indicate he wasn't.

Hasn't he also not done a single thing to indicate he is?

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Do Not Resuscitate posted:

I hate to break it to you all, but he's gonna run. He hasn't done a single thing that would indicate he wasn't.

Until today, yowza: http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/26/politics/joe-biden-dnc-conference-call/

midnightclimax
Dec 3, 2011

by XyloJW
Any word yet from the Hilary camp on Biden's possible run?

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Jewel Repetition posted:

Hasn't he also not done a single thing to indicate he is?

Yeah, this is the main reason that it's still pretty unlikely that he actually runs.

It is hard to tell where the clear desire of Biden to be President and the media's clear desire for Democratic conflict diverge though.

AARP LARPer
Feb 19, 2005

THE DARK SIDE OF SCIENCE BREEDS A WEAPON OF WAR

Buglord

AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:43 on Jan 23, 2016

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Do Not Resuscitate posted:

Translation: I'm buying time to get my ducks in a row before I announce.

Hoo boy. Folks with money on yes would find evidence of his intent to run in bird entrails.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
Didn't even realize that this market closed:

https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleMarket?marketId=1484#sthash.YCLDwguZ.dpbs

Thanks, Jindal. Just made me some money :D

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
Also this just opened today, should be fun:

https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1551#data1

quote:

One or more federal criminal complaints shall be filed against Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2015, as confirmed by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s).

This market may close prior to the End Date, if/when PredictIt determines the above criteria have been met. - See more at: https://www.predictit.org/Home/Sing...rge_2015#rules1

Not really sure how I feel about this one. It's not whether or not something will actually happen, just formal charges. The Repubs have been threatening all sorts of lawsuits over the past few years but besides endless committees and hand-wringing they've never actually followed through

Necc0 has issued a correction as of 19:11 on Aug 27, 2015

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib
Ugh, this site is full of reasonable people. Can someone with a longtime account share this link on freep or something so we can get bigger profits?

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Necc0 posted:

Also this just opened today, should be fun:

https://ws.sharethis.com/secure5x/https//www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?contractID=1161#sthash.O5iNQhaT


Not really sure how I feel about this one. It's not whether or not something will actually happen, just formal charges. The Repubs have been threatening all sorts of lawsuits over the past few years but besides endless committees and hand-wringing they've never actually followed through

This requires a criminal charge, though, not just any lawsuit.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

Vox Nihili posted:

This requires a criminal charge, though, not just any lawsuit.

Ah good call. Yeah this is easy money, then. Should keep an eye on this for good buys whenever the Republicans start rabble-rousing

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib
Yeah the no is already at 85 cents.


Fiorina participating in the top-tier CNN debate is starting to tilt towards yes, but she's neck and neck with Christie on missing the cut so that's a tough one. I still have to go with no.

edit: And I just made crazy money on Fiorina - the YES went up to like 80, and is already down to 20. Bought in at 40, if I sell out now I double my money but if I ride it to the debate I make 150%.

pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 20:20 on Aug 27, 2015

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
So someone correct me if my math is wrong here but I'm thinking of tossing a bunch of arbitrage money at the multi-choice markets. For example take the republican primary market:

  • To purchase one 'NO' share of each of the top ten candidates costs $8.22
  • Assuming someone in the top-ten wins, a pretty safe bet, those ten shares finalize at $9.00
  • For every batch of these that I purchase I gross $0.78
  • Ten percent 'profit' tax : $0.078 per batch / $0.702
  • Five percent withdrawal fee : $0.0351 per batch / $0.6669
  • $0.6669 / $8.22 = 8.11% profit
  • $850 cap per market => $8,500 maximum investment
  • $689.61 total profit

An 8% almost-guaranteed return over just under a year is a pretty good deal, imo

edit: Nevermind the 5% withdrawal is on the entire thing, not just your profit. Oh well

edit 2: Still get a guaranteed 3% return. That's not *too* bad, I guess.

Necc0 has issued a correction as of 22:19 on Aug 27, 2015

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.
If you buy only correct choice shares are you guaranteed to make some amount of money?

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.
Edit: Posted in the wrong thread somehow.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

Jewel Repetition posted:

If you buy only correct choice shares are you guaranteed to make some amount of money?

If God intervenes in the election and Bobby Jindal or somebody manages to win I just make an extra buck in gross profit per batch so yeah it'd be a good thing. Very very unlikely though so my math assumes at least one of them fail.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Necc0 posted:

If God intervenes in the election and Bobby Jindal or somebody manages to win I just make an extra buck in gross profit per batch so yeah it'd be a good thing. Very very unlikely though so my math assumes at least one of them fail.

I don't mean you specifically, I mean, if someone bets right, do they always make at least some money for it?

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib

Jewel Repetition posted:

I don't mean you specifically, I mean, if someone bets right, do they always make at least some money for it?

Well, in theory. You buy a share for 99 cents that's a sure thing, you win a dollar. But PredictIt takes 10% as a rake, then you can only withdraw 95% of your money due to a withdrawal fee if I'm doing the math correctly.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

Jewel Repetition posted:

I don't mean you specifically, I mean, if someone bets right, do they always make at least some money for it?

It depends. Here's a basic example:

Say you watch the poll reports and already know the results before the market closes for it, so it's a guaranteed win. The market is at 99-1 and you buy a single share of 'Yes' at $.99. An hour later the market closes and your share settles at $1.00, netting you a profit of $.01. The profit tax is taken out immediately, in this case being .0001*. So your ultimate balance is $0.999.

At this point two things can happen: you can either cash out, triggering the second 5% withdrawal fee, costing you $.0499, putting your final withdrawal at $0.9491. This would be a loss for you. Second option is to continue buying into certain 99-1 markets, each one only charging the 10% profit. Eventually you will break even and come out ahead of the 5% withdrawal fee and make a profit. This will take a while though, but it's also completely safe.

Fortune favors the bold!

*
I don't actually know how they take the profit fees out of single cents because their accounting only seems to go three digits.

Necc0 has issued a correction as of 22:33 on Aug 27, 2015

Zeta Taskforce
Jun 27, 2002

What's a reasonable amount of money to put into this? I know you can bet $850 max per market but is there some upper amount of money where people have found it tedious to try to accumulate enough shares to make it worth it? Or are the markets fluid enough that if you want to buy 1000 shares and you put in some reasonable price in the middle of the trading range they tend to be quickly filled so it is a moot point?

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Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Zeta Taskforce posted:

What's a reasonable amount of money to put into this? I know you can bet $850 max per market but is there some upper amount of money where people have found it tedious to try to accumulate enough shares to make it worth it? Or are the markets fluid enough that if you want to buy 1000 shares and you put in some reasonable price in the middle of the trading range they tend to be quickly filled so it is a moot point?

There are lots of people maxing out. It's probably the only way to make anything significant on arbitrage and such. That said, don't put in money you aren't willing to lose. It's an unregulated experimental market.

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