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Yeah the whole Iran situation does pretty much trace back to the oil companies getting the US/UK to gently caress around in Iran so that they could get their sweet, sweet, oil.
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Aug 30, 2015 06:02
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I'm trying to load up on Obamacare being under 42.5%. I'm buying no at 97. RCP is currently at 40.2% and unless a poll is released tomorrow (unlikely) with approval over 52% (even more unlikely) it seems like free money and a 2 day return of 3%
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Aug 30, 2015 21:59
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New polling markets are out: restart steam
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Sep 1, 2015 15:33
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Everything is pretty lovely at the moment. There's some obvious stuff like will Hillary be polling above 45 by September's end, but you can't buy into no for less than 80 cents already. I'm banking big on Jeb continuing a nosedive in the polls, especially after he decides to go "GUNS BLAZING" after Trump in the next debate, which will end disastrously for him. I'm also being bullish about Hillary suffering through another little bit of a mild September and giving up a few points to keep her from being a firm choice yet in a lot of voters' minds. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 19:07 on Sep 1, 2015 |
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Sep 1, 2015 16:54
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Hahaha, CNN just decided to go against the RNC and the FEC to capitulate to the pressure and let Fiorina in. There goes my money.
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Sep 1, 2015 23:10
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pathetic little tramp posted:Hahaha, CNN just decided to go against the RNC and the FEC to capitulate to the pressure and let Fiorina in. There goes my money. Yeah, hopefully the no buys raise enough to keep it from being a complete lose before the debate. 3 cents a share is pretty close to worth less than the outside chance she still doesn't make the debate somehow. Probably Christie burying her beside Hoffa.
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Sep 1, 2015 23:40
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Gyges posted:Yeah, hopefully the no buys raise enough to keep it from being a complete lose before the debate. 3 cents a share is pretty close to worth less than the outside chance she still doesn't make the debate somehow. Probably Christie burying her beside Hoffa. Fortunately I just realised I only bought 10 shares, so I'm only out 4.50 for when I bought in. I was really thinking of buying in on yes yesterday, too, just because it seemed like something that would be good for ratings and there was so much chatter about it. In the end, we get Fiorina in a debate with Trump. That's worth 4.50 to me, now let the Iran deal go through you fuckers in Congress.
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Sep 2, 2015 00:01
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pathetic little tramp posted:Hahaha, CNN just decided to go against the RNC and the FEC to capitulate to the pressure and let Fiorina in. There goes my money. I got wrecked on this, but I think watching the debate will probably be worth more than what I lost.
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Sep 2, 2015 00:07
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They need her there so they don't have a stage full of men, at least one of whom cannot stop saying horribly sexist things.
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Sep 2, 2015 00:49
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I had a feeling in my gut that they were going to tweak the rules glad I didn't put any on those markets.
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Sep 2, 2015 02:05
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Nothing right now looks like a good bet even though I dropped $20 into this thing. I want to bet on, like, "approval of senate above %15.5" because its going for like 20-70 right now and is at 15.3. I guess I don't understand what polls they can use though and which ones come out next and which way they trend.
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Sep 2, 2015 04:55
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Stereotype posted:Nothing right now looks like a good bet even though I dropped $20 into this thing. I want to bet on, like, "approval of senate above %15.5" because its going for like 20-70 right now and is at 15.3. I guess I don't understand what polls they can use though and which ones come out next and which way they trend. If I could only put my money in one thing right now, it would be Joe Biden not running for president. You can just about double your money on that one. edit: I'm currently buying 220 shares of Biden not running for 50 cents, I'm going to be rich (note: rich may be an overstatement). Yoshifan823 has issued a correction as of 05:15 on Sep 2, 2015 |
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Sep 2, 2015 05:05
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I just sold all my Walker NO shares at .85, someone put up over 100 shares at several cents above the next-best offer. That just freed up a bunch for day-trading, though I still think Jeb has a ways to plummet.
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Sep 2, 2015 05:10
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Thanks to whoever said the Iran veto thing was a safe bet, I made $60 on that today.
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Sep 2, 2015 06:33
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Wanamingo posted:Thanks to whoever said the Iran veto thing was a safe bet, I made $60 on that today. Its weird, because "Will Congress reject Iran deal" is at 98c for NO, but "Will Obama veto congressional disapproval" is only at 78c for NO. The second one cannot be a yes without the first one being a yes. edit: nevermind, the first one has to be a veto override. Stereotype has issued a correction as of 08:58 on Sep 2, 2015 |
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Sep 2, 2015 08:40
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Wanamingo posted:Thanks to whoever said the Iran veto thing was a safe bet, I made $60 on that today. Yeah that's my biggest money maker right now. I could sell and get about, what, 90 bucks right now? But I'm thinking I should hold out for the solid 100. My question is, when would they declare "Okay this is obviously a no." When the resolution denying the deal passes? It might make more sense to get the 90 and screw with it if that takes 3 weeks or more.
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Sep 2, 2015 17:30
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah that's my biggest money maker right now. I could sell and get about, what, 90 bucks right now? But I'm thinking I should hold out for the solid 100. My question is, when would they declare "Okay this is obviously a no." When the resolution denying the deal passes? It might make more sense to get the 90 and screw with it if that takes 3 weeks or more. I doubt they'll close this one early because the rules are based on legislation actually passing. So your only two exits are the legislation passes or the time expires. Even if they hold a vote and it gets shot down there's still the chance that they could re-introduce it and have it pass for some reason.
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Sep 2, 2015 17:44
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Is there some way to know what polls will be released? I'm looking at Obama's approval rating, RCP puts it at 44.9%. The contract closes in 2 days, and the contracts that are hovering around that number are in the 40 to 60 cent range. There isn't some calendar where we know that Fox or CNN or whoever is going to release something tomorrow?
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Sep 2, 2015 17:58
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Yoshifan823 posted:If I could only put my money in one thing right now, it would be Joe Biden not running for president. You can just about double your money on that one. But the filing deadline is two months out.
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Sep 2, 2015 18:11
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Golden Bee posted:But the filing deadline is two months out. It's slowly getting inflated by people who think he's going to announce when he goes on Colbert's new show next week. It'll drop a bunch after that night when he doesn't announce.
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Sep 2, 2015 18:19
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ˆˆˆha, what he said.Golden Bee posted:But the filing deadline is two months out. The real trick to making money isn't being right, it's predicting when people are going to think they're right. I've got most of my shares right now tied up in waiting for some polls to deviate and get people to buy my shares on Hillary and Jeb, but right now picking a yes on Biden would be smart because next... week? I think he's going to be on Colbert, and a lot of people are going to think he's saying he'll run which should inflate the prices. (Or buy no and sell em all once he announces on the show that he isn't running).
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Sep 2, 2015 18:21
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah that's my biggest money maker right now. I could sell and get about, what, 90 bucks right now? But I'm thinking I should hold out for the solid 100. My question is, when would they declare "Okay this is obviously a no." When the resolution denying the deal passes? It might make more sense to get the 90 and screw with it if that takes 3 weeks or more. Me, I already sold. Used the money to buy a bunch of no shares for Carson.
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Sep 2, 2015 19:06
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Yeah I should've jumped on it. Some people who can't see the writing on the wall have driven the no price down to 77 cents, so now I'm playing the waiting game.
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Sep 2, 2015 19:14
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The Romney YES spread is 10/5 now, lol The primary is such an absolute clusterfuck that I actually don't think that's a bad price.
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Sep 2, 2015 19:16
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Hottt Tipppp: The 44+ on the Gallup poll has Nos for crazy cheap right now, I expect the added poll from tomorrow to dip a little, which means people will panic buy them and drive the price up, you could probably get a nice profit there.
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Sep 3, 2015 07:02
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https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1559#data1 Jeb is already underwater in the RCP average and he's had a bad week. NO should win out in the end and steadily trend toward 100% throughout the month imo, y'all jump in on it now.
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Sep 3, 2015 17:25
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Yoshifan823 posted:Hottt Tipppp: Personally, I always avoid that market. It just seems like such a crapshoot to try and predict a number that's going to be within the margin of error on the poll. As long as we're throwing out these protips, I'd say now's a good time to bet against Carson's poll numbers. The no shares are 20 cents each right now, and I really can't see the guy maintaining this rise until the end of the month. He's a huge idiot, but unlike Trump, he's quiet and soft spoken.
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Sep 3, 2015 22:50
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There's a good chance that Christie won't be in the next CNN debate, which has NOs trading at only 20c. He is currently ranked 10, tied with Paul, and is 11th according to the latest CNN poll. They are only letting 10 people in.
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Sep 3, 2015 23:06
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Stereotype posted:There's a good chance that Christie won't be in the next CNN debate, which has NOs trading at only 20c. He is currently ranked 10, tied with Paul, and is 11th according to the latest CNN poll. They are only letting 10 people in. drat it I had a bunch of NOs at 10c a day or two ago but got cold feet because it seemed like CNN was just gonna go the "uh our bad it's actually 11 people now" route wrt Fiorina.
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Sep 3, 2015 23:46
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Wanamingo posted:As long as we're throwing out these protips, I'd say now's a good time to bet against Carson's poll numbers. The no shares are 20 cents each right now, and I really can't see the guy maintaining this rise until the end of the month. He's a huge idiot, but unlike Trump, he's quiet and soft spoken. Aliquid posted:Jeb is already underwater in the RCP average and he's had a bad week. NO should win out in the end and steadily trend toward 100% throughout the month imo, y'all jump in on it now. Both of these markets seem essentially to be bets on how well Carson or Bush do in the CNN debate. Bush probably does better compared to his performance in the FOX debate, and Carson, I dunno. People didn't expect much from him the first time around, but I have no clue now. There's a not insignificant chance he says something quite stupid, but then again, the GOP base loves that stuff.
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Sep 3, 2015 23:50
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We're two weeks from the debate, I have no problem taking both those bets for at least until the day of the debate.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:08
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Stereotype posted:There's a good chance that Christie won't be in the next CNN debate, which has NOs trading at only 20c. He is currently ranked 10, tied with Paul, and is 11th according to the latest CNN poll. They are only letting 10 people in. I was crushed betting against Fiorina being included. CNN seems so whimsical now that I won't touch anything there for any price. They could be letting in 10, maybe 11, or it will be a tie and they will make it 12.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:21
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A Time To Chill posted:drat it I had a bunch of NOs at 10c a day or two ago but got cold feet because it seemed like CNN was just gonna go the "uh our bad it's actually 11 people now" route wrt Fiorina. They did: "If the eligibility window closed today, CNN's analysis of polls conducted from July 16 shows that Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, John Kasich and Chris Christie would qualify for the top-tier debate. With today's change, Fiorina would also qualify for the top-tier debate." This is from CNN's own report on itself. Count it, that's eleven.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:23
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It would be cool if, due to a statistical tie, they let everyone into the big kids debate except Graham, and still hold a kids table debate just for him.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:24
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fronz posted:It would be cool if, due to a statistical tie, they let everyone into the big kids debate except Graham, and still hold a kids table debate just for him. I've been thinking about it, and with the 1% floor and potential ties, it could well turn out that there is a second tier "debate" with one poor, sad candidate at some point.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:24
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They would probably feel pity and let Graham come onto the big stage, but just never speak to him or acknowledge his presence
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Sep 4, 2015 02:27
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Why are these contracts so close to 50 cents? http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?contractId=1170#data1 https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?contractId=1171#data1 The RCP average is 44.8% and the contract ends today. I doubt they will be purging old polls in the next 13 hours, and I imagine that any polls coming out today would already be out. Am I missing something?
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Sep 4, 2015 16:13
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Really enjoying Christopher Brown here not understanding how this poo poo works STOP MANIPULATING THE MARKET STOP IT !!! Necc0 has issued a correction as of 16:23 on Sep 4, 2015 |
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Sep 4, 2015 16:21
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Any reason not to buy Yes on Christie making the next debate? Going at 90c, and it seems virtually impossible that 8 polls with Christie at 0% will drop within a week. CNN would have to specifically exclude Christie, which it already said at the Fiorina announcement that it would not.
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Sep 5, 2015 00:17
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| # ? Apr 23, 2024 13:57 |
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Vox Nihili posted:Any reason not to buy Yes on Christie making the next debate? Going at 90c, and it seems virtually impossible that 8 polls with Christie at 0% will drop within a week. CNN would have to specifically exclude Christie, which it already said at the Fiorina announcement that it would not. Link to the Fiorina announcement?
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Sep 5, 2015 00:33
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