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Vox Nihili posted:Which markets have you been playing in, if you don't mind me asking? Here's what I have right now. I'm planning on selling the Biden shares as soon as possible because I don't think he's going to run, and I got burned on the Palmer one because I didn't clear some buy orders. Occasionally I'll bet on the direction of the country and congressional approval markets if they seem safe enough. I think my biggest individual win so far has been betting that Trump will not have the largest drop in the polls following the first debate.  Pretty much my strategy is to sell once I've made a reasonable profit instead of waiting for the market to close, and to never bet on any of the absolute crapshoots like the Gallup approval rating.
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Sep 8, 2015 20:20
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| # ? Apr 25, 2024 17:28 |
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Vox Nihili posted:By the way, this looks like a pretty good deal: https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?contractId=1166 Yeah that one was great all last week, hovering around 50c
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Sep 8, 2015 20:28
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Is there any resource to find out which individual polls come out when?
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Sep 9, 2015 00:14
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Welp. Biden didn't announce anything. Glad I held on to the majority of my shares.
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Sep 9, 2015 12:55
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Wanamingo posted:Here's what I have right now. I'm planning on selling the Biden shares as soon as possible because I don't think he's going to run, and I got burned on the Palmer one because I didn't clear some buy orders. Occasionally I'll bet on the direction of the country and congressional approval markets if they seem safe enough. I think my biggest individual win so far has been betting that Trump will not have the largest drop in the polls following the first debate. Looks like we're opponents on the Biden market. Only thing I question there is the Palmer extradition choice, though.
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Sep 10, 2015 01:10
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Necc0 posted:Welp. Biden didn't announce anything. Glad I held on to the majority of my shares. According to the tip it was the 14th, I think.
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Sep 10, 2015 01:12
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I'm still pretty miffed that the "First GOP contender to drop out" was resolved to be Jindal when the dude is still putting out campaign ads on Youtube and tweeting like a candidate.
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Sep 10, 2015 17:57
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New market: Will the federal government shut down on October 1?
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Sep 10, 2015 18:12
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Salvor_Hardin posted:I'm still pretty miffed that the "First GOP contender to drop out" was resolved to be Jindal when the dude is still putting out campaign ads on Youtube and tweeting like a candidate. They did list suspension as something that would resolve as a drop out. No idea what Jindal was thinking following the McCain playbook on that.
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Sep 10, 2015 18:43
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Salvor_Hardin posted:I'm still pretty miffed that the "First GOP contender to drop out" was resolved to be Jindal when the dude is still putting out campaign ads on Youtube and tweeting like a candidate. They've come out and said they understood it was lovely but the rules are rules. They can't just ignore them.
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Sep 10, 2015 19:53
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If you're sure Biden won't run, the best time to buy no would probably be right before his Colbert appearance when the bubble will burst.
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Sep 10, 2015 20:00
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I really doubt they will, but then again the Republican Party is a field of clowns.
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Sep 10, 2015 22:32
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Was someone threatening this?
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Sep 10, 2015 22:37
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Yeah this one's a gamble. I'm leaning towards them not shutting it down even though the Iran deal & Planned Parenthood has them in a frenzy but they've been pretty unpredictable lately. I feel like Boehner might wiggle out of this by adding some wordy token nods to the base that when boiled down result in nothing happening. So for example make the President pinky-swear that they'll disclose any "side deals" (there aren't any) plus launching an investigation into Planned Parenthood for wrongdoing (there isn't any)Golden Bee posted:Was someone threatening this? If Congress can't agree on a budget by the end of the month it shuts down by default. Since the Republicans are in control of both chambers they'll likely be going for major concessions from the Dems but both of the current hot-topics are things the Dems absolutely won't budge on. Throw in the opportunity for Rand or Cruz to grandstand like before and who knows what will happen. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 22:45 on Sep 10, 2015 |
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Sep 10, 2015 22:38
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What is going on with Will "Right Direction" poll at 28.5%+ on September 11? Nothing has changed almost the entire time, no polls release today, and the average is still just above the line. However judging by the bets for the last few days there was no chance for Yes to win. Hell, yes just dropped like 30 cents today off no polls being released.
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Sep 10, 2015 22:44
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Seems like a pretty easy no since an extension and future shutdown would still resolve to no. They will have to fail to even get an extension in place for yes to win. Plus it's election season and all.
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Sep 10, 2015 23:16
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Gyges posted:What is going on with Will "Right Direction" poll at 28.5%+ on September 11? Check the comments, Reuters released a new poll at 25% and it just hasn't been added to RCP yet.
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Sep 10, 2015 23:28
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Wanamingo posted:Check the comments, Reuters released a new poll at 25% and it just hasn't been added to RCP yet. I quickly quit reading the comments after realizing they're mostly the place to try and bullshit people into buying your shares. With occasional people crying about how the numbers are all hosed up and clearly there's shenanigans going on.
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Sep 10, 2015 23:57
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http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...-colbert-213528 No's on Biden still safe for now.
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Sep 11, 2015 00:24
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I told you guys to buy short before the taping. Now Biden run's dropped 11 cents.
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Sep 11, 2015 00:36
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http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2015/09/10/for-biden-calendar-makes-his-2016-decision-tough-to-delay He's not running
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Sep 11, 2015 00:46
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Vox Nihili posted:Seems like a pretty easy no since an extension and future shutdown would still resolve to no. They will have to fail to even get an extension in place for yes to win. On the other hand, in order to get something through the House Republicans have to agree to it. Given their current passion for defending Planned Parenthood and their current attempt to hold their breath real hard to make the Iran Deal go away, things do not look good for a functioning government come October 1.
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Sep 11, 2015 03:00
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I think Boehner would rather break the Hastert Rule than give in to the crazies and shut everything down again. Just bought big into NO.
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Sep 11, 2015 03:05
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Aliquid posted:I think Boehner would rather break the Hastert Rule than give in to the crazies and shut everything down again. Just bought big into NO. Eventually, yes. However he's got to make a deal with Pelosi that can also pass through the Senate in time, and there's some big ol' assholes like Cruz, Cotton, and Lee just waiting to gum all the works up to stop it. Also the true believers in the House are a large enough group to really gently caress with Boehner's ability to get anything done in a timely fashion all on their own. Especially since there are less than 10 legislative days left before the shutdown commences. Edit: According to the House Calendar there are 7 days left in the month of September when the House will be in session. Gyges has issued a correction as of 03:24 on Sep 11, 2015 |
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Sep 11, 2015 03:14
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The crazies were more important last Congress, but this round has more Republicans period, therefore Boehner's buffer is larger.
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Sep 11, 2015 03:38
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New markets are up! Along with the typical polling questions, you have three questions about this week's debate. Who will win, who will lose, and who will get the most airtime.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:58
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Biden Running No shares are still relatively cheap in spite of his Late Show interview, currently hanging around 57 cents. I bought in for much cheaper, but there's still money to be made.
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Sep 11, 2015 21:47
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i see you commenting... vox nihi1i
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Sep 11, 2015 22:04
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Yoshifan823 posted:New markets are up! Along with the typical polling questions, you have three questions about this week's debate. Who will win, who will lose, and who will get the most airtime. Some of these didn't show up for me in the new arrivals section. Run a search for "debate" to see 'em.
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Sep 11, 2015 22:16
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fronz posted:i see you commenting... vox nihi1i No relation. 
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Sep 11, 2015 22:17
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So, who had Rick Perry in the "first to drop out" pool?
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Sep 11, 2015 22:25
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DaveWoo posted:So, who had Rick Perry in the "first to drop out" pool? Some poor souls who got screwed by rules wizards when Jindal "suspended" his campaign.
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Sep 11, 2015 22:44
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I got money on Carson losing the debate the hardest.
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Sep 12, 2015 00:47
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User Error posted:I got money on Carson losing the debate the hardest. Yeah keep in mind that this is based on just raw polling percentages not as a ratio of each individual candidate's starting point. Trump obviously has the furthest to fall but Carson is the only other candidate with a ledge bigger than the standard deviation. IMO No on every other candidate besides those two and MAYBE Bush and Walker is a safe bet.
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Sep 12, 2015 03:25
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Trump is unlikely to gently caress it all up and Carson has not only poked the Trump but is also positioned for everyone else to come at him for a piece of his polling. Carson and Bush, maybe Fiorina are the only ones with both enough to lose and a high probability of getting savaged in the debate. Cruz on the other hand is the only other person with relatively decent polling and is positioned to gain by being the only one not attacking Trump or being attacked by Trump. Rubio is also positioned to gain off Bush's savaging, but he'd have to actually do something, which has proved a problem for him so far. Huck and Walker are both low enough that they could get a bounce, but it's less likely. Rand and Christie aren't going anywhere.
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Sep 12, 2015 04:16
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^^ You actually think someone other than Mr. T will attack Carson?DaveWoo posted:So, who had Rick Perry in the "first to drop out" pool? I, at one point, owned 152 shares of Perry YES 
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Sep 12, 2015 07:07
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Aliquid posted:^^ You actually think someone other than Mr. T will attack Carson? No one else really needs to, but he's done some apostate things. Huckabee especially could be helped if the guy sucking up religious right voters were shown to be of the devil. It's going to depend on the questions asked.
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Sep 12, 2015 13:17
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So when do we cash in on Trump's eventual fall?
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Sep 13, 2015 18:06
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:So when do we cash in on Trump's eventual fall? I wouldn't try it. Every time he does something that should collapse his support, it rises instead. You can always bet in the primary winner and president markets, though, he's probably overvalued there.
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Sep 13, 2015 19:57
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I put a few bucks on Rubio gaining the most from this week's debate.
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Sep 14, 2015 14:38
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