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After including my card's cashback reward today's Republican Primary market has a 6.5% arbitrage opportunity 
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Sep 14, 2015 15:11
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Is there some major news I'm missing that's causing YES Shutdown to crash so precipitously?
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Sep 14, 2015 20:42
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A Time To Chill posted:Is there some major news I'm missing that's causing YES Shutdown to crash so precipitously? No real news, I think a couple think pieces came out saying Republicans would be stupid to do it. Also polling that shows a sizeable majority of voters don't want the government shut down over Planned Parenthood. Of course 0 clean continuing resolutions have even entered the que for a vote, time is running down, and House Republicans are known to be psychotic assholes in safe districts. Feel free to buy up cheap yes shares and flip them next week or so when the media starts flipping out about the immenant shutdown.
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Sep 14, 2015 20:49
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Gyges posted:No real news, I think a couple think pieces came out saying Republicans would be stupid to do it. Also polling that shows a sizeable majority of voters don't want the government shut down over Planned Parenthood. That's what I thought. Just wanted to make sure I'm not an idiot and somehow missed all funding issues being resolved for eternity and end up throwing good money after bad.
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Sep 14, 2015 20:52
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Gyges posted:No real news, I think a couple think pieces came out saying Republicans would be stupid to do it. Also polling that shows a sizeable majority of voters don't want the government shut down over Planned Parenthood. Yeah I bought no when it was at 45 and I'm thinking of uploading with this ˜30 cent profit on each share just in case republicans actually are this dumb.
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Sep 14, 2015 21:01
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The thing with the shutdown is that it's definitely going to at least go to the wire. So even if they do avoid the shutdown, a couple days before yes should be skyrocketing. As long as you can get it fairly cheep there should be a nice return.
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Sep 14, 2015 21:05
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gently caress it, that sounds like fun. I'm going to try to make a profit on both sides of this coin. I just sold 50 no shares for about ˜30 cents profit each, now I'm going to buy up 50 yes shares and see if I can make at least a quarter on each. edit: drat, I apparently didn't sell all of my no shares so it won't let me buy yes until I unload my lsat few nos, and I don't like the profit I'd make now. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 21:08 on Sep 14, 2015 |
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Sep 14, 2015 21:06
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Another fun new one: https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleMarket?marketId=1575 How many people will watch the second debate? The first debate scored 24million viewers, so I think that's the floor, but will they break 26million?
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Sep 14, 2015 21:10
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I keep scanning the comments threads on the markets and every time it's a waste of time. Either no one has said anything or people are just shilling as hard as possible for their particular bet. Which wouldn't be so bad if it weren't so blatantly a load of bullshit thrown to increase their margin.
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Sep 15, 2015 01:01
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I bought about 50 shutdown NO shares at $.51 and I'm keeping them. McConnell, Cornyn and Boehner are publicly against a shutdown and like I said on the previous page, Boehner has a larger buffer between the goal line and the crazies because of 2014 gains.
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Sep 15, 2015 07:24
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pathetic little tramp posted:gently caress it, that sounds like fun. I'm going to try to make a profit on both sides of this coin. I just sold 50 no shares for about ˜30 cents profit each, now I'm going to buy up 50 yes shares and see if I can make at least a quarter on each. I think this is the right idea. I've dumped about 200 no shares so far, no reason not to pull the trigger and lock in a profit in something this volatile. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 08:31 on Sep 15, 2015 |
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Sep 15, 2015 08:17
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I can't stomach the volatility, y'all really think the YES will bump up toward the deadline despite all signs pointing toward NO? edit goddamn that's a good sell price, but an eight-cent differential on the buy/sell may be too much for me. i say swears online has issued a correction as of 08:36 on Sep 15, 2015 |
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Sep 15, 2015 08:19
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Okay, Bernie winning Iowa: I'm sitting at $.71 NO and I can currently sell at $.40. I should definitely sit on this, right? Hillary's bound for a rebound, conventional wisdom says.
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Sep 15, 2015 08:28
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Aliquid posted:Okay, Bernie winning Iowa: I'm sitting at $.71 NO and I can currently sell at $.40. I should definitely sit on this, right? Hillary's bound for a rebound, conventional wisdom says. I would not sell it at this time, yeah.
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Sep 15, 2015 08:32
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Aliquid posted:Okay, Bernie winning Iowa: I'm sitting at $.71 NO and I can currently sell at $.40. I should definitely sit on this, right? Hillary's bound for a rebound, conventional wisdom says. You probably shouldn't listen to me since I'm a Sanderista, but yes, it's only going to get worse.
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Sep 15, 2015 08:55
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Aliquid posted:I can't stomach the volatility, y'all really think the YES will bump up toward the deadline despite all signs pointing toward NO? Yes was in the low 30s last time I looked. I see almost no way it doesn't get back up to at least the high 50s at some point in the next two weeks. More likely it'll flirt with 70 like the nos were.
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Sep 15, 2015 14:55
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Which republican will drop out next? https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleMarket?marketId=1576 Santorum or Pataki are good choices, but Jindal has a good chance of embarrassing an active political career so maybe he's feeling the heat?
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Sep 16, 2015 22:11
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I can't see Santorum dropping out before Iowa. It would be too sad.
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Sep 16, 2015 22:15
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pathetic little tramp posted:Which republican will drop out next? Why are the buy yes costs so high on all of them?
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Sep 16, 2015 22:17
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It's pretty new, I don't think a lot of people have bought shares yet. edit: Yeah, in fact, there are 0 shares on all of them. That's pretty crazy. You'd figure there'd be a bunch of people driving up the price of TrumpNO right? Maybe they let people put in bids for the first 30 minutes or so before starting to fulfill trades? Either way, I'm going to see if anyone out there is chump enough to think Jeb!YES is a steal at 50cents pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 22:37 on Sep 16, 2015 |
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Sep 16, 2015 22:33
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pathetic little tramp posted:Maybe they let people put in bids for the first 30 minutes or so before starting to fulfill trades? Nope. They execute immediately as soon as the market opens. Everyone needs to remember that this site is largely still only popular with D&D types. People like to talk big but once real money is on the line everyone suddenly sobers up a bit. Plus those that are loopy tend to lose money quickly and get burnt out.
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Sep 16, 2015 23:34
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Predictit needs to get some major press so that the place is swamped with the average voter types come November next year. It's much harder to make money off the polling when a sizable portion of the population isn't insisting the polls are skewed.
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Sep 17, 2015 00:12
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Gyges posted:Predictit needs to get some major press so that the place is swamped with the average voter types come November next year. It's much harder to make money off the polling when a sizable portion of the population isn't insisting the polls are skewed. I like how smart it is about the predictions with a smaller, more objective userbase, but I guess I'll always have predictwise.
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Sep 17, 2015 00:17
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I've had 35% returns over three weeks, so it's time to put more cash in. If you want dumber money, go to Freep or Little Green Footballs.
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Sep 17, 2015 00:38
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I put 10 bucks in 2 days ago and have been flipping shares of the "who will have more speaking time in the Republican debate". Was pretty crazy buying stuff at 2 cents and selling it for 8 or 9 cents. I now have $17.50 and was completely out of the market before it closed. Not enogh action to earn a living, but fun.
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Sep 17, 2015 02:06
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Gyges posted:Predictit needs to get some major press so that the place is swamped with the average voter types come November next year. It's much harder to make money off the polling when a sizable portion of the population isn't insisting the polls are skewed. I may or may not be part of 'All Things Considered's headline tomorrow so stay tuned 
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Sep 17, 2015 05:47
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Its sort of funny that they have a new "Who will drop out first" bet with Jindal, the winner of the last one, still in it.
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Sep 17, 2015 20:15
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Stereotype posted:Its sort of funny that they have a new "Who will drop out first" bet with Jindal, the winner of the last one, still in it. I kind of hope they keep having these and he keeps technically dropping out first every time. drat it, Jindal, this is the 4th suspension of your campaign!
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Sep 17, 2015 20:33
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We're coming up on All Things Considered right now if anyone is interested in hearing NPR's take. I was interviewed by their reporter last night during the debate
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Sep 17, 2015 22:03
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Necc0 posted:We're coming up on All Things Considered right now if anyone is interested in hearing NPR's take. I was interviewed by their reporter last night during the debate I wish instead of NPR doing the story it was Fox News. Here's the link I think (it wont be avaliable for another two hours) http://www.npr.org/2015/09/17/441222483/predictit-lets-investors-buy-and-sell-political-candidate-stock I'm excited to hear it 
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Sep 17, 2015 22:06
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Stereotype posted:I wish instead of NPR doing the story it was Fox News. Stream is here: http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.wamu.org%2Fstreams%2Flive%2F1%2Flive.pls&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNHUmG0nkIum0Q-cV3MFR3CD0Iq65w Our story is next. Hopefully we'll hear my interview 
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Sep 17, 2015 22:10
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Oh, this is cool.
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Sep 17, 2015 22:15
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Audio is now playable. Now we gotta get you interviewed on Limbaugh, Necc0. We don't need more smarties on PredictIt. Hahaha this stupid fucker didn't bet on Trump having the most speaking time. edit: Oh my God he kept buying no shares during the debate. That's where all my money came from yesterday. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 23:22 on Sep 17, 2015 |
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Sep 17, 2015 23:18
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Back in on Biden not running. Shares are suddenly cheap again.
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Sep 17, 2015 23:58
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Something that's been rolling around in my head since I first heard about PredictIt, hope it's not too off-topic: Currently PredictIt is almost entirely about political results, with a few semi-miscellaneous markets involving events related to politics, such as North Korea testing another nuke. What would be the potential legal ramifications of running prediction markets on conspiracy theories or religious judgment times that make claims about specific dates? For example, I keep seeing idiots on social media warning everyone about the rapture kicking off on September 23 of this year. Instead of getting involved in a ridiculous and futile argument, it would be wonderful to just link them to a page that lets them put their money where their mouth is. A lot of the usual stuff is probably too nebulous to create a market and the people who believe in it think it has already been proven anyway (fluoride is poison, Obama is a Muslim Kenyan socialist, chemtrails, etc.), but certain black and white events could be solidified by just attaching a "happens by X year" to them (mandatory "mark of the beast" tracking chip for all Americans, Israel nuked, publicly acknowledged extra terrestrial visitation). I suppose there would be moral implications, since a good portion of the people who are convinced of this sort of thing are probably not completely right in the head, making this into a sort of crazy person tax. Then again, you could probably accuse the current PredictIt of the same thing, though to a lesser degree. Also, I don't have any numbers to prove it, but I still get the impression that the majority of people who buy into this stuff aren't actually clinically crazy, just very stupid. What does everyone think? Too sketchy?
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Sep 18, 2015 00:11
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pathetic little tramp posted:Hahaha this stupid fucker didn't bet on Trump having the most speaking time. That was me  I didn't know about the 'if another candidate says your name you get +30 secs' rule until it was too late. Then I noticed them going for under ten cents and said ehh gently caress it what's another couple bucks. Go figure the first time I lose a bet since starting on this site an NPR reporter has a mic in my drunk face
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Sep 18, 2015 00:22
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We actually talked a bunch and I walked him through how I was making guaranteed money by arbitrating the Republican primary market so I'm pretty disappointed he decided to use that
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Sep 18, 2015 00:24
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Vox Nihili posted:Back in on Biden not running. Shares are suddenly cheap again. Yeah I don't understand why NO shares dropped so hard today. Is it really all based on another "some guy said he thinks Biden is totes running" article? Basically I can't decide if I should double down on no, or cut my losses.
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Sep 18, 2015 00:28
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I hope Biden isn't running because I just bought more Biden Is Not Running stock.
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Sep 18, 2015 00:33
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also Necc0 you sound like a goon hahaha
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Sep 18, 2015 00:47
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