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AstraSage posted:Well, I unfortunately have a little urge to dispute the having better hygiene part of the analogy with the worsening issues we've been facing around the last four years in most of the nation's Water supplies, Urban maintenance and Medical treatments... True, my friends in Valencia have water around three days each week, and electricty is a random chance. I agree with you on our humor helping keep things peaceful so far, but I can't help but wonder if we take it too far and end up making a joke out of everything without giving it the importance it needs. And the hallacas thing has been a concern for years now. For those who don't know about them, hallacas are the christmas dish for Venezuelans. It's akin to eating turkey on thanksgiving, a powerful tradition that reunites families and friends. Hallacas take days to prepare, and the whole family usually helps out somehow (tasting counts!). Big families churn out hundreds of hallacas and then exchange it with other families for their hallacas, as a sign of friendship. Many traditional families can't conceive christmas without them. I didn't like hallacas until I came to Spain, now I pay 8€ for one come christmas. My mother in law would skin us alive if we don't send a picture of us eating one.
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Sep 14, 2015 12:08
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Hugoon Chavez posted:And the hallacas thing has been a concern for years now. For those who don't know about them, hallacas are the christmas dish for Venezuelans. It's akin to eating turkey on thanksgiving, a powerful tradition that reunites families and friends. Hallacas take days to prepare, and the whole family usually helps out somehow (tasting counts!). Big families churn out hundreds of hallacas and then exchange it with other families for their hallacas, as a sign of friendship. We usually buy them because we don't have the time to cook, this year they'll probably be around the 200-300Bs mark each I guess. What's really got me shuddering is imagining the price of a pan de jamon, which is my favorite part of Christmas. Update on the judge who sentenced Lopez: in a completely unrelated turn of events that in no way has anything to do with her giving Lopez the maximum sentence for made up crimes, she's being considered for the position of Chilean Consul. Seriously guys, it's just coincidence.
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Sep 14, 2015 16:49
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Another Venezuelan airplane violated Colombia's airspace. This happened yesterday in the Venturosa and Nueva Antioquia area. The Colombian Air Force says that the airplane entered approximately 10 kilometers into Colombia. Last night, Foreign Affairs Minister Delcy Rodriguez said that there was no evidence for the incursion on Saturday, and that Colombia was "making up" the whole thing in order to throw a wrench into any future meeting between Maduro and Santos. I don't have the link handy, but the Colombian Foreign Affairs Office said earlier today that they obviously had the radar data from the installation(s) that picked up the incursion. Labradoodle posted:Update on the judge who sentenced Lopez: in a completely unrelated turn of events that in no way has anything to do with her giving Lopez the maximum sentence for made up crimes, she's being considered for the position of Chilean Consul. Seriously guys, it's just coincidence. Ha! If that turns out to be true... I don't know what to say. They might as well have handed her a big bag with a dollar sign on it as soon as she finished reading the verdict on Thursday. Also, I just found out that this judge, Susana Barreiros, came to her post as the replacement for another judge who had been removed from her seat. That judge was Maria Lourdes Afiuni.
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Sep 14, 2015 18:04
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Chuck Boone posted:However many ideological similarities Iglesias might share with the PSUV, they apparently don't extend to throwing people in jail for speaking their minds, which is great. wiregrind fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Sep 14, 2015 |
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Sep 14, 2015 18:16
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Labradoodle posted:Update on the judge who sentenced Lopez: in a completely unrelated turn of events that in no way has anything to do with her giving Lopez the maximum sentence for made up crimes, she's being considered for the position of Chilean Consul. Seriously guys, it's just coincidence. Chuck Boone posted:Also, I just found out that this judge, Susana Barreiros, came to her post as the replacement for another judge who had been removed from her seat. That judge was Maria Lourdes Afiuni. For gently caress's sake.
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Sep 14, 2015 18:20
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Chuck Boone posted:Another Venezuelan airplane violated Colombia's airspace. This happened yesterday in the Venturosa and Nueva Antioquia area. The Colombian Air Force says that the airplane entered approximately 10 kilometers into Colombia. I am honestly surprised about how much poo poo Columbia is willing to put up with, espcialy since their people are now being persecuted if they live in Venezuela. stupid question but is there going to be a war over all of this or does Columbia just not give a poo poo and wants to be the grown up in the situation.
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Sep 14, 2015 18:50
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Hugoon Chavez posted:For gently caress's sake. Predicted VZanalysis spin: "Sure, we imprisoned him for imaginary crimes, but at least we made the entire process blatantly obvious so people wouldn't think he's a bad guy!"
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Sep 14, 2015 19:00
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Dapper_Swindler posted:I am honestly surprised about how much poo poo Columbia is willing to put up with, espcialy since their people are now being persecuted if they live in Venezuela. stupid question but is there going to be a war over all of this or does Columbia just not give a poo poo and wants to be the grown up in the situation. That's not a stupid question at all, actually - it's a really good one and I'm not sure what the answer is. I would say that Colombia definitely understands that Venezuela is manufacturing this crisis as a way to shift blame from itself for the condition the country is in. Colombia is not at all interested in seeing this drag on or escalate into an armed conflict. I believe that Colombia has demonstrated restraint so far in the situation and that it will continue to do so. I also think that Colombia understands that these airspace violations are fairly petty provocations that don't warrant a violent response. I think that it's likely that Maduro will suddenly drop this one day and then it'll be like it never happened. Just a few months ago, everything coming from Maduro and the Foreign Ministry had to do with the border dispute with Guyana over the Essequibo region. Then, from one day to the next, it seems like they all forgot about it completely, and suddenly this became an issue. I think that it's very likely that sooner rather than later, another issue will take center stage. It might be the case that this new issue flows out of this current one. For example, it could be that the national government will focus its attention away from the border with Colombia as they look to expand the state of exception into the interior states in order to "crack down on paramilitary operations" there.
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Sep 14, 2015 19:07
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Dapper_Swindler posted:stupid question but is there going to be a war over all of this or does Columbia just not give a poo poo and wants to be the grown up in the situation. Colombia* I doubt an international war would ever happen inside south america. It's all about loving the civilians or people who can't really fight back. If two "powers" collided it would be a complete disaster, neither side would be able recover. wiregrind fucked around with this message at 19:37 on Sep 14, 2015 |
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Sep 14, 2015 19:09
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I think Colombia is being sensible in not acting on the airspace bait, because if the Venezuelan government gets anything that could act as evidence of a war situation with Colombia the State of Exception will become nationwide and that's a terrible outcome.Hugoon Chavez posted:For gently caress's sake. Indeed. Let's once remember this trial is a sample of how vindicative the government can get: There's rubbing salt in the injury and then there's basically forcing a injured person to roll all over the Araya salines.
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Sep 14, 2015 19:16
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In the unlikely event that it turns into a shooting war between Venezuela and Columbia, how do their respective militaries stack up?
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Sep 14, 2015 20:07
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I know a lot of people in Colombia, and from speaking with them I gather the big reason why they don't do anything is they don't want to cause Venezuela to destabilize even further. If the Venezuelan government collapses, a lot of refugees are going to be pouring into Colombia, which is the last thing they want, especially given how much violence is likely to follow. Colombia has a well trained, equipped, and experienced military with a lot less corruption issues than Venezuela's, but there's nothing to gain from a war, even if Maduro does act like a belligerent rear end in a top hat.
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Sep 14, 2015 20:11
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-Troika- posted:In the unlikely event that it turns into a shooting war between Venezuela and Columbia, how do their respective militaries stack up? Well, Venezuela has been buying a lot of weapons since Chavez took over, but Colombia is a shitload more experienced and organized, plus probably would get most of the international support (and the only one that would matter, US's). It would be very ugly but Colombia would have the upper hand, no doubt. Of course, Venezuela has a lot of connections with Colombian guerrilla, so it could bring the war inside Colombia proper with ease. It's not a laughing matter either way, both countries could do a lot of harm to each other.
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Sep 14, 2015 20:25
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War is expensive and very few sane governments are going to fight one, especially close to home. As an American it's difficult to appreciate the cost of war, because every conflict in the past hundred years has been fought entirely on a completely different continent. A war between Venezuela and Colombia would, at the very least, cause a huge impact on international commerce as it rerouted to avoid potential conflict zones. In addition to pure military conflict along the borders, both states have the capability to inflict significant damage on each other's infrastructure, either through conventional airstrikes (Colombia) or by strongly backing rebels (Venezuela). This can degrade the quality of governance and the delivery of services, which in both countries is relatively weak (Venezuela much weaker than Colombia). Refugees would likely attempt to get away from any conflict zones, putting greater pressure on supporting mechanisms in many areas. All of this is ignoring any loss of life from the military conflict itself, and the diversion of resources/greater debt in order to support military operations. There's also the fact that Colombia could lose. While unlikely, given the Venezuelan military is two parts drug cartel, one part partisan militia, and one part expensive parade, uncertainty is the order of the day. Basically, until Venezuela is actively invading Colombia, it's in Colombia's best interests to turn the other cheek. Morrow fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Sep 14, 2015 |
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Sep 14, 2015 21:53
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Colombia and Venezuela are not going to war, relax.
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Sep 14, 2015 22:07
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Gozinbulx posted:Colombia and Venezuela are not going to war, relax. It's just a thought exercise, Morrow did a good analysis about why Colombia doesn't want a Conflict, and Chuck Boone is always on point: Venezuela is just baring its fangs trying to look threatening and powerful, but this will pass over as Maduro and his lackeys find another dumb thing to blame their own failures on. And meanwhile, the Venezuelans keep living in encroaching misery.
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Sep 14, 2015 22:42
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Labradoodle posted:
Two members of the lower House's Foreign Relations Commission have already condemned the appointment. One, a PPD, said that such a move would be widely rejected across the Chilean political spectrum; the other, a freaking RN, outright said that the only place to host people like her in Chile is Punta Peuco (the prison where most of those doing time for crimes during the Pinochet years are currently held) However, the government itself said that there's no official word from Venezuela regarding the appointment.
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Sep 14, 2015 23:02
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The Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino Lopez, finally spoke out on the issue today, confirming that Venezuelan K-8 jets had been patrolling the area on Saturday, but saying that they did not enter Colombia at any point. He hasn't commented on Sunday's incursion, as far as I know. Padrino Lopez has been completely absent from the public eye for a few weeks, and there was all sorts of speculation regarding the cause for his disappearance. He resurfaced in Cuba a while ago and appeared in some pictures with Fidel Castro, but so far the Venezuelan government's hasn't said anything about why he's been away for so long. It looks like he's recovered from whatever he had. On Colombia-Venezuela relations: Growing up in Venezuela I always learned in school that we were sister countries since we were both liberated by Simon Bolivar and were, in fact, the same country for a while. As some have pointed out in this thread, maybe that relationship has become strained at different times in our histories, but a Colombia-Venezuela really is unthinkable.
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Sep 15, 2015 00:59
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Chuck Boone posted:On Colombia-Venezuela relations: Growing up in Venezuela I always learned in school that we were sister countries since we were both liberated by Simon Bolivar and were, in fact, the same country for a while. As some have pointed out in this thread, maybe that relationship has become strained at different times in our histories, but a Colombia-Venezuela really is unthinkable. I always thought that if there was ever a war between Venezuela and Colombia it would be for the right to decidedly claim who invented the arepas. It was us, of course.
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Sep 15, 2015 07:47
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I know speculation is almost always a losing game, but what are the possible outcomes here? Can Maduro win the next election? Can he 'win' the next election? What happens if the price of oil does not recover? Can any government run Venezuela without higher commodity prices? How long can Maduro maintain control without major policy change?
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Sep 16, 2015 03:33
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JohnGalt posted:Can Maduro win the next election? Can he 'win' the next election? Who says he has to even hold an election? Clearly the Bolivarian Republic needs a steady hand at the tiller though this period of economic war against Chavismo! It's just too risky to deal with the upheaval that an election might bring until the war is over!
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Sep 16, 2015 03:42
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The state of exception was expanded last night into four more municipalities in Zulia, and two in Apure state. I don't think that Maduro announced any additional border closures, and I haven't taken had a chance to figure out exactly where on the map these municipalities are located, but it'd be really interesting to see if they are all along the border with Colombia or not. The states of exception have been divided into seven "Zonas", and are part of an initiative the government is calling Mision Nueva Frontera de Paz [New Peaceful Border Mission]. The expansion means that all three states bordering Colombia now have municipalities in them under a state of exception. (EDIT: This is incorrect. Amazonas state also borders Colombia, and no municipality in it is under a state of exception at this time) Marco Coello, the student who fled to the United States last week, gave an interview with CNN En Espanol last night and discussed some of the abuses he suffered while in custody. He said that when he was arrested an officer hit him in the back with a fire extinguisher, that he was beaten. Coello also said that once he was taken to a detention center, he was forced to sign at gunpoint a confession saying that he had participated in violent acts and that Leopoldo Lopez had ordered him to do it. This is what he said: quote:Coello:... they took me to a side room and they gave me a statement. They told me to sign it, [and the statement said] that I was responsible for all of the things that had happened and that Leopoldo Lopez was giving me orders. Remember that Coello was one of the co-accused in the Leopoldo Lopez trial. He would most certainly have received similar sentences to the other students had he not escaped the country. JohnGalt posted:I know speculation is almost always a losing game, but what are the possible outcomes here? We have to remember that the elections this December are for the National Assembly, not for president. However, I'd say that these elections are very much a referendum on Maduro's time in Miraflores so far, and I think that people will definitely vote based on how they think Maduro/the PSUV have been doing since Maduro was elected president. I have no doubt that the PSUV does not have enough support today to win the December elections. I say this for three reasons. First, remember that Maduro barely managed to get himself elected. He beat Capriles in 2013 by 1.5%, just over 220,000 votes. Chavez beat Capriles in a presidential election just six months prior, 55% to 44%. Second, the situation in the country has deteriorated dramatically since Maduro took office; Venezuelans know this, and they blame Maduro for it. An August poll by Datanalisis found that 70.4% of respondents view Maduro's tenure as President negatively, and 46.1% blame him for the country's problems. Given the fact that the next Presidential elections are not scheduled to take place until 2018, I think Venezuelans are very eager to take to the polls and voice their discontent with Maduro December. I think this would translate into a defeat for the PSUV at the polls. Your second question - "can he 'win' the next election?" - I presume means, can the PSUV cheat and steal the elections? I think the answer to this question is unfortunately, "Yes!", and I'm sad to say that I am convinced that the PSUV will in fact cheat and steal the election. Remember that there are more than one way to cheat at elections. We see the PSUV cheating every day. Any time Diosdado Cabello, Maduro or any other PSUV official goes on television and calls the opposition terrorists, criminals, traitors, etc., that's a form of cheating. The sentences against Lopez and the three students are a form of cheating as well: they deliver the message that if you dare speak out against the government or exercise your right to protest, this could be you. Over the summer, we saw five (or six?) opposition National Assembly candidates, including Maria Corina Machado, banned from holding office by decree from the General Ombudsman, of all people. Before that, we saw the arbitrary arrest of opposition leaders, including Antonio Ledezma, Daniel Ceballos, Enzo Scarano, and more. The PSUV has taken all of these measure with the goal of giving itself an unfair advantage in the elections. Now, the fear is that all of this isn't enough, that no matter how many people they arrest and how many times they call the opposition terrorists, the PSUV will still lose. I think the PSUV see the writing on the wall, and this is where things get murky because the PSUV’s behaviour could become more erratic as it finds a way – any way – to win. Two likely scenarios present themselves: the government could just call off the elections as ComradeCosmobot has suggested, or they could resort to more traditional forms of cheating on election night. I think that it's unlikely that the government will call the elections off, but I think that the idea is worth considering specially given the states of exception declared in Zulia, Tachira and Apure. I think it's far more likely that the PSUV will do things like mysteriously extend voting hours in regions across the country so they can continue to stuff ballots, intimidate voters at voting centers (perhaps through the use of colectivos), etc. In summary: the PSUV does not have the raw numbers it needs to win, but I believe it will try every trick in the book to ensure a victory in December. We’ve been seeing some of these tricks already over the past year. JohnGalt posted:What happens if the price of oil does not recover? Can any government run Venezuela without higher commodity prices? From what I've been reading it looks like OPEC is not interested in cutting production until 2016, which means that Venezuela will be drowning in financial problems for the rest of the year. I remember reading an interview with Jorge Giordani who was the chief economic planner for Chavez going way back to the first time he came to power. Giordani told the interviewer that back in the early years (I'm sorry I can't find right now exactly when, but the interview is here) to save every cent of oil sales above the current selling price at that time (which, 15ish years ago was lower than it is even today). Chavez didn't do that and instead came to rely on what ended up becoming exuberantly high oil prices before the fall last year. The end result being -- well, ask one of the goons living in Venezuela how easy it is for them to buy milk and eggs in a supermarket. JohnGalt posted:How long can Maduro maintain control without major policy change? Maduro being the crafty statesman that he is has backed himself into a corner here. He’s said repeatedly, starting in November, that he would not cut a single cent from the misiones and social assistance programs, no matter how much the price of oil drops. He’s also said that the answer to the scarcity/economic crisis is not to scale back the country’s “revolutionary” policies, but rather to strengthen them. He’s really made it impossible for himself to make policy changes as a response to the economic crisis. Nevertheless, perhaps the biggest hint of policy change came last fall and into the spring of this year, when whispers began about the possibility of raising the gas prices. The last bit of information I remember hearing about that came in the January-February (I think) when Maduro said that they were setting up some kind of commission to investigate how to raise gas prices and by how much. I haven't heard anything about that in months, so I think the issue is dead for now. I think that a gas price increase is long overdue and is probably the most likely site for major policy change. Unfortunately, the last time the government tried to increase gas prices sparked the Caracazo, and Maduro is well aware of that. If Maduro does decide to move on the gas price increase, it wouldn’t be before December. If there is no policy change and the country continues to circle the drain into oblivion, I think that as long as Maduro, the army leadership and the people at the top are able to continue to steal without fear of persecution, the PSUV will remain in power. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 15:23 on Sep 19, 2015 |
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Sep 16, 2015 17:27
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Chuck Boone posted:I think that a gas price increase is long overdue and is probably the most likely site for major policy change. Unfortunately, the last time the government tried to increase gas prices sparked the Caracazo, and Maduro is well aware of that. If Maduro does decide to move on the gas price increase, it wouldn’t be before December. Its worth mentioning that Gas prices are ridiculously low in Venezuela. It's literally cheaper than water. edit: and easier to find too, when I was there I tried to buy bottled water and I had to ask around for almost two hours to find some. Hugoon Chavez fucked around with this message at 18:19 on Sep 16, 2015 |
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Sep 16, 2015 18:16
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Marco's Coello's interview on CNN is really interesting. You can watch it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyJ7mqfg-hQ My translation below: quote:Fernando del Rincon: At this point of the interview, let's go into detail about what you suffered through. I apologize to the lawyers if it seems like I'm ignoring you, but I'm obviously interested in what Marco has to say. If there's something that you can't talk about, please tell us... talk about the worst moments that you experienced, Marco. It's worth noting that Coello's testimony of the abuses he suffered while in detention are consistent with testimony from other people who were detained at different points during last year's protests. If you're at all interested in the kinds of abuses suffered by people arrested during last year's protests, I highly recommend the Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch reports in the OP.
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Sep 16, 2015 18:46
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Thanks for the responses. If PSUV cheats the election or calls them off entirely, how do you think the Venezuelans population is going to react?
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Sep 16, 2015 19:43
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JohnGalt posted:Thanks for the responses. It's worth keeping in mind that depending on who you ask, the PSUV have cheated in either every election, or at least in some. Again, though, it depends on what we mean by "cheating", and how it's carried out. If it's done tactfully as it's been done in the past (constant bombardment of ad hominem attacks against opposition politicians, voter intimidation/persuasion at voting centers, etc.) then nothing might happen. If the cheating is more blatant (if the numbers end up not adding up, or if the PSUV wins by a landslide at odds with public opinion), then I think we might see parks (only sparks) reminiscent of last year's protests. I think that's it's really unlikely that the PSUV would call off the elections entirely, but I wouldn't discount the idea out of hand. I think it's much more likely that if they wanted to go down this route, that they would delay the elections or maybe even cancel them in certain municipalities only (the zones of exception, for example). If they cancel or postpone the elections , I think it's likely that we would see more of the nation-wide demonstrations we saw last year. Again, I think that because the PSUV has so many resources available to allow it to cheat at the elections, they wouldn't move on cancelling them unless it was a do-or-die scenario.
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Sep 16, 2015 20:10
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Who says he has to even hold an election?
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Sep 16, 2015 22:49
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:OEA/UNASUR say he has to hold an election. Calling off the elections will not happen unless everything in Venezuela goes to complete and utter poo poo. I want to believe that actual suspension of elections is not a line that we are willing to cross in Latin America after the Juntas, although if you go by the disregard for human rights in the region I wouldn't be exactly shocked, just even more disappointed. Maduro doesn't give a poo poo about OEA, but he won't cancel elections because that would mean he drops al pretense of being an elected leader and clarify to the world that it's a Dictatorship, which is the last thing Chavismo wants.
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Sep 17, 2015 07:42
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Chuck Boone posted:Your second question - "can he 'win' the next election?" - I presume means, can the PSUV cheat and steal the elections? I think the answer to this question is unfortunately, "Yes!", and I'm sad to say that I am convinced that the PSUV will in fact cheat and steal the election. People need to remember that even if the PSUV more or less accurately counts the ballots, that doesn't mean they still aren't authoritarian. There are other ways to ensure the rule than fudging the numbers. EDIT - Would I be considered naive if I thought that the PSUV may not be fudging the numbers too much (if at all) due to the fact that Maduro barely one last election despite most outlets saying he'd comfortably win? punk rebel ecks fucked around with this message at 12:11 on Sep 17, 2015 |
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Sep 17, 2015 12:07
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Hugoon Chavez posted:Maduro doesn't give a poo poo about OEA, but he won't cancel elections because that would mean he drops al pretense of being an elected leader and clarify to the world that it's a Dictatorship, which is the last thing Chavismo wants. I've often thought this in the past when considering whether or not they'd follow up with something and they've constantly surprised me (i.e. Lopez's trial). punk rebel ecks posted:People need to remember that even if the PSUV more or less accurately counts the ballots, that doesn't mean they still aren't authoritarian. There are other ways to ensure the rule than fudging the numbers. Not really, it's a possibility. There was definitely some ballot stuffing during that presidential election but the question is whether that's what tipped Maduro over the edge or if they just wanted to give him a very small bump. IMHO though, fraud is consistent with the events during and after the election: massive amounts of opposition witnesses being forced to leave voting centers through violence, centers being kept open illegally until late at night, Maduro gleefully saying the opposition could have its recount and then having someone else back out of the offer, spreading false rumours about opposition members burning hospitals (disproved by several ONGs), forcing Capriles to back down under threat of greater violence and then conceding a partial recount without the only true element that mattered, the voting books (the books themselves don't contain any particularly dangerous information, as many posters wrongly assumed during last thread, just signatures and ID numbers, which in Venezuela are super public, unlike SSNs). By now it's a moot point though, sometimes I even think it was for the best. An opposition government with such a tiny mandate would've been hamstrung by the rest of the institutions still being under PSUV control, economical measures which in retrospect could've avoided the current catastrophe would've been widely criticized and the country would likely be mired in political violence with chavismo looking to sweep the upcoming parliamentaries to "save the country", much like the opposition is now. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 12:54 on Sep 17, 2015 |
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Sep 17, 2015 12:50
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Labradoodle posted:I've often thought this in the past when considering whether or not they'd follow up with something and they've constantly surprised me (i.e. Lopez's trial). Well it's "easy" to cloud those kind of things in a way that leaves enough room for doubt, but outright cancelling elections is inexcusable in a democracy, I'd think. I don't disagree with your post at all, maybe now it's a better time to start beating chavismo back, slowly and into presidential elections. If there's to be a peaceful resolution to all of this crisis then a gradual turn around and change in goverment is posibly the best way. Let's hope so, and that it actually happens.
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Sep 17, 2015 13:04
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I think that the game the PSUV is playing is that the voting machines themselves are really excellent voting platforms. I just read a news article about how the Consejo Nacional Electoral is going to be adding another round of voting-machine auditing, raising the total number of audits conducted on the voting machines during the electoral process to 21. Having the machines be honest-to-goodness proper voting machines allows the PSUV to ride the Carter Effect: to point to the machines and the actual process of voting at the machines as being sound, safe, reliable and valid, so that on that most superficial level the elections seem free and fair. Of course, "free and fair elections" mean much more than having proper voting machines, but a distracted/sympathetic audience isn't likely to look too far beyond the headlines. It's the things that don't show up on voting machine audits that are the biggest threat to elections in Venezuela. If you're looking to fuel your theories that the election will be cancelled or postponed, I think you need look no further than the creeping state of exception and the manufactured crisis with Colombia. It's been about a month since Maduro announced the first states of exception, and now there are at least 14 municipalities across three states affected by the measure. As I've said before, I think it's unlikely that Maduro will cancel/postpone the elections, but if he does feel the need, he's sitting on both the narrative and the precedent to make it happen.
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Sep 17, 2015 20:03
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Chuck Boone posted:If you're looking to fuel your theories that the election will be cancelled or postponed, I think you need look no further than the creeping state of exception and the manufactured crisis with Colombia. It's been about a month since Maduro announced the first states of exception, and now there are at least 14 municipalities across three states affected by the measure. Zulia specially is very much an oposition state, too. Or at least as far as I know.
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Sep 18, 2015 08:21
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Chuck Boone posted:I think that the game the PSUV is playing is that the voting machines themselves are really excellent voting platforms. I just read a news article about how the Consejo Nacional Electoral is going to be adding another round of voting-machine auditing, raising the total number of audits conducted on the voting machines during the electoral process to 21. Exactly. But hey at least with the authoritarian left there has been progress, have voting machines that actually work! Baby steps!
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Sep 18, 2015 11:00
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Honestly, I don't believe they will suspend the elections either. But not because they can't, just because they've got too much invested in the narrative of being almost unbeaten at the polls. I'm just waking up now and reading about a military plane crashing at the Colombian border, I guess that's how they'll keep the tension up before Maduro and Santos meet.
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Sep 18, 2015 13:08
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Venezuelan media is reporting today that a Venezuelan Sukhoi-30 fighter crashed somewhere along the border with Colombia while in pursuit of an "illicit aircraft". The airplane had a crew of two and their status is unknown. The Ministry of Defense said that the airplane crashed at around 9:07 PM local time last night. The Ministry of Defense released a statement saying that the "illicit airplane" entered Venezuela through the "northwestern region" (Zulia). The statement says the the airplane was heading south when the fighter crashed. Hugoon Chavez posted:Zulia specially is very much an oposition state, too. Or at least as far as I know. Yeah, I think it is. Well, so is Tachira - that's where the protests started last year and where they were the most intense. Maria Corina Machado tweeted this map of Venezuela showing all of the municipalities under the state of exception:  Remember that the state of exception is in place for a period of 60 days, with the possibility of being extended for another 60. punk rebel ecks posted:Exactly. But hey at least with the authoritarian left there has been progress, have voting machines that actually work! Baby steps! Ha! Exactly. I know that not calling your opponents fascists and intimidating their supporters at voting stations is not exactly intuitive. It takes years of practice. We'll get there!
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Sep 18, 2015 13:10
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quote:The Ministry of Defense released a statement saying that the "illicit airplane" entered Venezuela through the "northwestern region" (Zulia). Of course the solution to this unsightly menace is to go full state of exception on the states where most opposition voters live, months before the elections.
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Sep 18, 2015 15:06
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Vladimir Padrino Lopez, the Minister of Defense, has confirmed that the airplane's two crew members have been found dead. The airplane crashed in the Elorza region of Apure state. wiregrind posted:All you see is authorities swearing that these invisible Colombians are terrorists. It's interesting because the government has been relatively timid in its rhetorical response to this. The original press release from the Ministry of Defense did go into a lot of detail about how Colombia is a bad place and they're the worst possible neighbours, though: quote:The National Bolivarian Armed Forces inform the people of Venezuela that on September 17 2015, at approximately 21:07 hours, a Sukhoi-30 belonging to our glorious Bolivarian air force, piloted by Captain Ronaldo Ramirez and Captain Jackson Garcia, who in compliance with their sacred duty to safeguard our sovereign air space, at the time when the integral air defense system was activated after detecting an illicit aircraft that entered [Venezuela] from the country’s northwestern region heading south towards the border with the Republic of Colombia, an area where mafias involved in drug trafficking attempt to use our territory as a platform for distribution of drugs produced in the neighbouring country towards Central America and the Caribbean; crashed, and we do not at this moment know the condition of the pilots. As such, the immediate activation of an air accident investigation group has been ordered with the objective of determining the possible causes that precipitated the crash and take the necessary measures to locate the pilots.
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Sep 19, 2015 00:12
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Colombian press hasn't even reported on the plane crash.
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Sep 19, 2015 01:41
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Chuck Boone posted:The Ministry of Defense released a statement saying that the "illicit airplane" entered Venezuela through the "northwestern region" (Zulia). The statement says the the airplane was heading south when the fighter crashed. "Our glorious Bolivarian Air Force" "fulfilling their holy duty of protecting our sovereign air space" "Our Bolivarian Air Force will work tirelessly, every day of the year, to guarantee our sovereignty and independence, firmly combating the infamous scourges of drug trafficking, para-militarism and other crimes in the Colombian-Venezuelan border region, with the firm purpose of building a new frontier of peace, prosperity, security and development for all the people of Venezuela". The KCNA would be proud. 
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Sep 19, 2015 10:17
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