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If oil stays at a low price for 2-3 years is it generally assumed the government will collapse? Other oil reliant nations (Russia/Saudis/GCC) either have significant reserves or other economic sectors which are somewhat viable, but Venezuela has neither afaik.
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Aug 26, 2015 20:07
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In all fairness I, and I imagine most Americans, have no idea what the actual policies of the opposition would be to end the economic malaise so if someone could link me an English language policy paper that would be fantastic.
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Oct 18, 2015 20:56
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Chuck Boone posted:If you're still up, Maduro is giving the sorriest, most disjointed concession speech in the history humanity. He said "the economic war has won". Link please.
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Dec 7, 2015 06:22
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So if elections no longer matter because the PSUV will just ignore the results and continue to occupy the state, surely the only remaining option is revolution?
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Jan 9, 2016 05:59
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Austerity is inevitable with oil prices this low, but the PSUV can say everything is fine and print monopoly money and blame the imperialists for making the money worthless in the first place.
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Jan 12, 2016 17:24
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Venezuela really could use a Cincinnatus.
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Apr 9, 2016 03:17
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El Hefe posted:There's a bit of hyperbole in that article but yeah, yesterday I bought a pizza and it was 5800 bolivares, that is 58 of the highest denomination bills we have, imagine if you needed 58 $100 bills to buy a pizza in the U.S. How hard is it to actually buy dollars on the street? At some point dollarization becomes defacto for high value transactions I would imagine. How do you pay for doctor visits (I assume you have to pay the doctor under the table to get prompt service) or other high value services/goods? Are credit/debit cards still in use?
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Apr 27, 2016 16:49
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Saladman posted:I think Lebanon is the only other reasonably-developed not-war-torn country I hear about that is as massively dysfunctional as Venezuela currently is. I wouldn't say Lebanon isn't war-torn. Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006 hosed up infrastructure across the country and the damage from the 1975-1990 Civil War is still evident everywhere. With Syria next door it's all relative though.
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May 1, 2016 20:32
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By importing food aren't they making local farmers uncompetitive? You would think a socialist/state capitalist government would be protectionist, using trade barriers to protect local production while using reserves to import things that will increase productivity and development over the long run, like turbines for their powerplants or refinery equipment so they can increase the profit on the oil they produce. Do any actual socialists think the Venezuelan model is anything other than trash? All they've done from what I've seen is transfer resource rent to the populace through subsidized imports. If anything the PSUV has made Venezuela MORE dependent on the imperialist world economy led by the demon Yankees.
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May 14, 2016 22:58
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I can't remember where I read this but during the late 80s the lower ranked officers in the Venezuelan military became much representative of the overall racial makeup of Venezuela (much more Brown/Black). One of these officers was Chavez himself. My theory is that this cadre essentially replaced the old "bourgeoisie" though Chavez and his anti-capitalist policies, becoming the new ruling class in the process. The best comparison I can make is Nasser and the Free Officers Movement in Egypt, where the vast majority of private assets were nationalized, but eventually were privatized again through corrupt methods, creating a new class of oligarchs. Eventually the Egyptian military became a state within a state, owning an estimated 40% of all wealth in the country. My predication is that Maduro and the hardliners will be overthrown by an alliance between an opportunist opposition group and the military, with an agreement between these two groups that much of appropriated wealth now in the hands of the military and the militaries privileged position in society will be maintained. Does this sound overly conspiratorial to you Venezuelan goons?
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May 15, 2016 22:45
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Hugo Chavez was a CIA agent sent to Venezuela to destroy all national industry and production other than oil, thereby making Venezuela entirely dependent on the US. Hugo is now living anonymously in Northern Virginia.
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May 21, 2016 13:09
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Can anyone explain to me why the PSUV is so committed to repaying foreign currency loans? Leftist governments across the planet believe that the massive debt they or the previous regime have accumulated is unjust. What does the PSUV really have to lose if they default on all the loans they owe to private Western creditors? They are basically administrating an austerity package through massive inflation destroying labor value and reducing imports causing lower living standards. I really don't understand the ideological underpinnings of their policies. At least Stalinism was internally consistent, Chavismo is a loving mess.
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Jun 10, 2016 04:41
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All the cash ended up in Swiss bank accounts or somewhere in the Western financial system. I don't think anyone with the ability to track down all the stolen wealth is going to bother helping the opposition claw it back. Only the very top of the PSUV may be persecuted, but the bulk of the PSUV corruption machine would get away. I honestly believe the reason the US hasn't put more pressure on the regime is because the situation in Venezuela isn't really that harmful to American interests. So what if a bunch of lovely Caribbean nations get cheap oil in exchange for voting against the US in various regional bodies? So what if Maduro blathers about American imperialism? Venezuela isn't building an economic or military juggernaut like China. Their system actually inhibits their ability to project power, and loots huge amount of surplus, which is deposited in banks which inevitably buy American treasury bonds, effectively subsidizing American imperialism.
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Jul 4, 2016 19:43
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The lack of effective organized opposition to the PSUV will only allow the situation to get worse. If MUD becomes delegitimized in the minds of the average citizen in the street, then calls for non-violence and constitutionalism by MUD will fall on deaf ears. We may see a situation like the 2011 Egyptian revolution where massive uncoordinated protests cause a collapse of the regime. This would probably be the worst result of the current crisis because the scarcity already present would increase to catastrophic levels. Even foreign aid would be ineffective if the skeleton distribution network disintegrates. The PSUV is really playing with fire right now.
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Sep 2, 2016 04:37
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If the Assemble really has lost all power MUD deputies should resign en masse. After that they can continue to call the government illegitimate, and begin agitating for regime change.
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Oct 24, 2016 22:41
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Have either candidate here in America commented on Venezuela? Clinton's previous record in Honduras indicates she would be inclined to a more interventionist stance. What have PSUV propaganda outlets said about the election?
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Nov 2, 2016 03:24
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uninterrupted posted:Honestly the best hope for the Venezuelan government now is to call the US’s bluff. Put a bullet in Guaido’s ear, cut utilities to the embassy, and dare a wildly unpopular president to start an invasion of a country most Americans couldn’t point to on a map. I don't know if a "Escalate to De-escalate" strategy will work with the buffoons in DC right now. The US can park a carrier group off the coast, light up all the military installations, send the marines to the ports and defacto control the country without having to venture into the cities at all. Would it look terrible to the world? Does Trump or Bolton or Pompeo give a drat about world opinion really? Doing what you suggest would give them everything they need to annihilate the regime. Maduro should stay calm, mobilize the international community however he can, and slowly begin rounding up the opposition leadership while finding useful idiots in the opposition who will speak to international media about how military intervention would be a catastrophe.
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Jan 28, 2019 22:20
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