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M. Discordia posted:*Criminals are an integral part of the PSUV coalition. The notion that people with the "right" politics can loot/kidnap targets with the "wrong" politics at will in a direct way, and the government will turn a blind eye to it, has always implicitly been part of the Chavist economic program. Crime doesn't care about politics; it's common for example for the bodyguards of high-ranking government members to be murdered and now and then government figures get caught up in the violence themselves such as the late Robert Serra or the minister whose caravan was under fire a couple of months ago before the "crackdown" on slums began. Being an outspoken opposition figure/supporter though does open you to the danger of the state flexing its own muscles against you, but pretty much everyone else is fair game for common criminals unless they're riding around with bodyguards on armored cars. M. Discordia posted:*An unstable society in which people are afraid to leave their homes at night can more easily be controlled and manipulated. Rumors about what goes on at street level can spin out of control among those who aren't prepared to find out for themselves, and people won't know what to believe. This could all be a setup for cancelling the elections because of the "threat to democracy posed by widespread public disorder" or the "safety of people in line to vote." Less likely, Caracas for example has been on an unspoken curfew for several years now. When I was a teenager it used to be that we knew it was dangerous to go out at night but everyone pretty much still did what they wanted within reason, nowadays most people set their own curfews, have their own "safe" routes, night-life has dramatically dwindled and people pretty much prefer to keep to their own homes (also few people can afford nightlife these days). All of this is to say that venezuelans are used to the feeling of being constantly in danger and daily news of grisly crime, it would take an event of gargantuan proportions for the government to go that route. But then again, they managed to spin an attack on a handful of policemen-military into an international crisis while ignoring that these very same groups have been targeted and killed consistently within our own borders for years now to take their weapons and for the status it affords to criminals.
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Aug 26, 2015 16:45
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An anecdote from the ground regarding inflation and scarcity: last week I had a leaking pipe in my kitchen, a minor inconvenience that forced me to mop up every half-hour or risk water spreading over the entire place. I called a guy who usually fixes that kind of stuff for me to come as soon as possible and he arrived early next morning, aside from the pipe, the sink's faucet had also broken and needed to be replaced so we went out to look around for a new one. It took us 5 stores to find a faucet that wouldn't break my bank, since most were priced between 15-20k Bolivares (minimum wage here is 7k bolivares) and we finally found a store that still had a decent one (and had forgotten to update their prices, I assume) at 5k. We come back and once the faucet is replaced and the pipe sealed, the guy says it's going to be 1.2k for his labour (aproximately 1/7th of that minimum wage), which according to my friends was fantastically cheap. The real kicker is that while he was working at my home we got to talking and I told him how there was a bakery around here that sells coffee bags under the table (heavily regulated product that's impossible to find except in the black market or without queuing for hours at a big supermarket) and he tells me how he hasn't had any coffee at home for a long while now, so I end up giving him 300g of coffee and a 4-pack of toilet paper in lieu of 400Bs and the guy walked away much happier than if he had gotten cash in hand, since it was partly his idea. I paid my plumber in part with coffee and toilet paper and we both walked away satisfied, while feeling lucky as hell that we'd actually managed to find a "cheap" faucet and still I ended up spending almost the entire equivalent of a minimum wage for something that esentially took less than two hours. I shudder when I imagine if an actual critical appliance in my home were to break, a regular fridge would cost me over 300k (or 42 months of a minimum wage), my computer (an i3 with 4gb of ram and a 21" screen), which cost approximately 5k around 5 years ago and is how I earn my living, would cost approximately 100k these days. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 01:47 on Aug 30, 2015 |
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Aug 30, 2015 00:35
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PerpetualSelf posted:Colombia has now decided to offer free Colombian citizenship to all Venezuelans. http://www.noticiascaracol.com/colombia/gobierno-ofrece-la-nacionalidad-venezolanos-que-deseen-vivir-en-colombia The reporters say that "venezuelans will be given colombian citizenship" but the colombian minister says pretty clearly that their aim is to keep families together, so spouses and family members of colombians will be free to apply for citizenship.
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Aug 31, 2015 03:30
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My Imaginary GF posted:I suppose the question is, as you reflect back upon your experiences, at what point could Venezuela's slide into authoritarianism no longer be halted, and what is the best vaccination for other developing nations against irresponsible actors like Chavez? I'd like to chime in here. I was still too young during the first constitutional referendum and the 2002 coup, so the turning point for me, came a little bit later, specifically in 2007 (major trip down memory lane below). During the last days of 2006 Chavez announced he wouldn't renew the concession for RCTV, a popular national channel, due to their coverage during the 2002 coup. There was an outrage all over the country and major protests during the first half of 2007, but it was college students who really made it personal and staged almost daily demonstrations and gigantic marches to show their discontent. I was 17 at the time and it was my first year of college, most of the people who were in college with me at that time basically had lived under the shadow of Chavez their whole lives since he stormed the public realm in 1992 but that was their first chance to actually show their discontent and they took to it with gusto. That wave of protests culminated in some violent clashes with the police and several wounded from both sides, as well as arbitrary detentions; all of that was still child's play in comparison to 2014 though. Chavez kept his word and in May 2007, RCTV went off the air but the students were still pissed and decided to set it's sights on a bigger prize, that year's constitutional referendum, which would allow for indefinite re-election, esentially rendering Chavez president for life (well, we weren't wrong on that count). The opposition was in a low point at that time: they'd called voters to abstain from the 2005 Parliamentary Elections as a form of protest, which simply allowed the government's party to sweep them with an uncontested majority and cement their footing further, so Chavez though he'd be able to ride the wave uncontested. During that year the student movement took charge by rallying the voters and managed to beat back the proposal with 55% at the end of that year. It was the opposition's first victory in a while and spirits were high, a lot of those student leaders went right into politics and are now majors or running for the National Assembly. I recall that Chavez, ever the gentleman, went on the air after the results came in and said it was "una victoria de mierda" ("a lovely victory") and he would put the proposal to vote again. The year ended in a victory, but watching him say that was the first time I remember thinking that the guy would never back down. In 2009 the proposal was put to vote again thanks to a loophole in the Constitution, this time however the articles to be modified were narrowed down just to those which would allow indefinite presidential re-election. Chavez won with 54% of the vote and the rest is history. Another notable turning point for me was Judge Afiuni's imprisonment in 2009. She presided over the trial of Eligio Cedeño, a banker who hustled the government out of a few million dollars and allowed him to go out on bail while his trial began, since he'd been in custody for 3 years at the time awaiting it's start. Cedeño ran and Chavez went on the air outright calling for Afiuni's imprisonment. He esentially ruled and sentenced her on TV, she was promptly detained for years, during which she was tortured and raped, only to be granted house arrest in 2013. House arrest is the government's way of saying, "hopefully you learned your lesson, stay out of our way". Hugoon Chavez posted:Now, I think as a country, the point where everyone lost hope and just surrendered was when he won the 2012 election against Henrique Capriles. I had no doubt that would be the case but Capriles was the last hope for many. To this day I doubt you'll find a non chavist Venezuelan that doesn't think the election was rigged, and scores of incidents and irregularities plagued the vote. Everyone was claiming for Capriles to "man up" and contest the results, but at the end he decided to just peacefully disagree with the result, to a bunch of empty words and weak manifestations that obviously led nowhere. I've got to differ from you here, spirits were high for the 2012 elections while they were indeed full of irregularities and abuses, Chavez won by a margin of 11% at a time when the economy hadn't yet tanked (although the expenditures from that fiasco were probably the tipping point). With clean elections the margin probably would've been smaller, but Chavez would've still undoubtedly won, protesting at that time would've taken away any credibility the opposition had. Now if we're talking about the 2013 presidentials, that's a whole different ballgame where they clearly outright stole the election. The main difference I've noticed between people who believe the 2012 elections were rigged and those who don't is whether they believe in electronic fraud, which in my opinion is silly considering their behaviour when elections come around: keeping voting centers open until high in the night and scaring away opposition witnesses with violence points to simple ballot stuffing in a small number of centers, which also explains why they so vehemently denied access to the voting books, a simple look at the statistical outliers would've shown any number of irregularities. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 16:03 on Sep 2, 2015 |
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Sep 2, 2015 15:47
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Lopez's sentence is supposed to come in today. He's expected to be found guilty despite his farce of a "trial", whose major shortcomings were listed by Chuck in his previous post. UPDATE: Lopez is being tried alongside Marco Coello, Christian Holdack, Ángel González and Damián Martín, students that were detained during last year's protests and there's a bit of a clusterfuck right now because apparently Coello managed to flee to Miami yesterday in a freaking commercial flight via the country's main airport and these geniuses just realized it today because he was a no show at the trial  .
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Sep 4, 2015 19:40
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JohnGalt posted:Hi, longtime lurker of the last thread. I will try to make an effortpost covering these topics later this week, but I can mention a couple of things off the top of my head. After Chavez purged PDVSA the company ended up shifting its focus from improving production to acting as the government's cash cow and while the brain drain has impacted most professional industries, none has been so hard hit as oil. Being a PDVSA employee used to be a major sign of status in Venezuela since it's the country's most prominent industry, whereas now petroleum engineers and other qualified professionals would much rather prefer outright emigration or working for multinationals. As an example, one of my closest friends is an electrical engineer who decided to roll the dice and throw his lot in with an multinational oil company in Venezuela because they offered him part of his wages in dollars and the possibility of a fully covered relocation once he's got enough experience. That's a very enticing package but they still have problems finding qualified engineers who want to join their program because they'd rather emigrate. As for the chinese, I've read articles about the terms of their deals and if I remember correctly at one point, while oil prices were still sky high, they were getting barrels at approximately $20 in exchange for cash up front, which should've been allocated for the improvement of our oil output and the purchase of chinese products. However since the government threw away that money in order to lay the ground for the 2012 and 2013 elections, the chinese have been much more reluctant to extend more financing without strong caveats, hence the drastic reduction of imports this year (which partly explains the augmented scarcity) and the government's more overt attempts to fabricate international crises in order to rally their base. Essentially, the PSUV, which rages so much about international meddling, has bent over for the chinese in the same fashion as they paint the opposition has done for the United States but at far less reasonable terms because they've been so desperate for money to secure each successive election.
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Sep 8, 2015 22:13
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Chuck Boone posted:Lopez has been sentenced to 13 years, 9 months, 7 days and 12 hours in the Ramo Verde military prison. These past 10 minutes have been insane. A journalist on Twitter just popped out that number and minutes later it was being widely circulated by local media and picked up soon after by international channels. There are news being written about a Tweet while there's still no official verdict. It woudln't surprise me if it were true but Jesus, this is ridiculous.
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Sep 11, 2015 03:17
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Voluntad Popular activists have confirmed the sentence. Yeah, I think it's a fancy way of saying house arrest. Ten years for Holdack and 4 years, 6 months for Demian and Angel. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 03:28 on Sep 11, 2015 |
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Sep 11, 2015 03:23
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At the risk of sounding too pessimist, I think yesterday's ruling was just the warming up. If they're confident enough to outright sentence Leopoldo despite the obvious farce of his trial and charges, I don't think they'll blush when the time comes to steal the elections in December. A more logical approach would've been to continue postponing his sentencing indefinitely , but I assume international pressures got too pesky, which left them with two avenues: complying by releasing Leopoldo and allowing international observation in the elections or closing ranks and doubling down on repression. Chavismo is definitely not "going quietly into the night". As for the students that were sentenced with him, I hope those kids will get the chance to escape like Coello did. Leopoldo at least had an idea of what he was getting into, but these guys are going to whither away just because they were in the wrong place at the wrong time and chavismo needed some props. I would love to know every detail of what went on in that courtroom, the kind of poo poo that will only see the light years from now when one of the attendees writes a book about the experience, specially about the judge. While I don't have any sympathy for the woman, I can't help but wonder if she went along with the farce willingly simply in exchange of being set for life or if maybe she thought about judge Afiuni being tortured for years, and decided she would rather protect herself and her family from political persecution. Either way she made her choice and all she can do now is hide within chavismo. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 14:52 on Sep 11, 2015 |
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Sep 11, 2015 14:43
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Gozinbulx posted:Messing around with various IPTV lists, I've found TV Venezuela and am watching my first Con El Mazo Dando. This would be hilarious if it wasn't such a horrifying example of how regimes use the media to intimidate and control people. Cabello is directly telling Diego Arria that if he ever steps foot in Venezuela he will be arrested. And now he appears to be saying the same about maria corina who I guess he's calling "maria violencia". Now he's talking about zombie movies and how she sounds like a zombie. Amazing. Oh man, all you need now is to watch a cadena. Diosdado may ramble, but watching Maduro try to maintain a coherent narrative and making bumbling threats is surrealistic.
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Sep 12, 2015 16:28
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BeigeJacket posted:Does anyone ever call Maduro out on his poo poo when he makes these 'the US are planning to invade/my assassination/contaminate our precious bodily fluids' statements, and if not, why not? Well, the problem is these allegations are thrown around so often that nobody takes them seriously. I mean, just off the top of my head last week Maduro accused Santos and Radio Caracol of planning to murder him, earlier this year the Minister of Defense said that they'd caught wind of some hitmen that had been paid 10 grand to kill Maduro and so on. As of the start of this year, he'd made mention of 17 different plots to kill him (http://www.elnorte.com.ve/nicolas-maduro-ha-hecho-17-denuncias-de-magnicidio-en-dos-anos/) during his presidency. The average venezuelan doesn't really give two shits about what he has to say aside from important announcements such as the border closing, etc. As for why opposition figures don't call him on his bullshit more often, they don't have the platforms to do so. Most of the media has either been bought by pro-government interests or are too scared to be seen taking an anti-government stance because then they could be sued and fined into oblivion, denied the right to broadcast, denied paper to print and so on.
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Sep 13, 2015 23:53
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Hugoon Chavez posted:And the hallacas thing has been a concern for years now. For those who don't know about them, hallacas are the christmas dish for Venezuelans. It's akin to eating turkey on thanksgiving, a powerful tradition that reunites families and friends. Hallacas take days to prepare, and the whole family usually helps out somehow (tasting counts!). Big families churn out hundreds of hallacas and then exchange it with other families for their hallacas, as a sign of friendship. We usually buy them because we don't have the time to cook, this year they'll probably be around the 200-300Bs mark each I guess. What's really got me shuddering is imagining the price of a pan de jamon, which is my favorite part of Christmas. Update on the judge who sentenced Lopez: in a completely unrelated turn of events that in no way has anything to do with her giving Lopez the maximum sentence for made up crimes, she's being considered for the position of Chilean Consul. Seriously guys, it's just coincidence.
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Sep 14, 2015 16:49
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Hugoon Chavez posted:Maduro doesn't give a poo poo about OEA, but he won't cancel elections because that would mean he drops al pretense of being an elected leader and clarify to the world that it's a Dictatorship, which is the last thing Chavismo wants. I've often thought this in the past when considering whether or not they'd follow up with something and they've constantly surprised me (i.e. Lopez's trial). punk rebel ecks posted:People need to remember that even if the PSUV more or less accurately counts the ballots, that doesn't mean they still aren't authoritarian. There are other ways to ensure the rule than fudging the numbers. Not really, it's a possibility. There was definitely some ballot stuffing during that presidential election but the question is whether that's what tipped Maduro over the edge or if they just wanted to give him a very small bump. IMHO though, fraud is consistent with the events during and after the election: massive amounts of opposition witnesses being forced to leave voting centers through violence, centers being kept open illegally until late at night, Maduro gleefully saying the opposition could have its recount and then having someone else back out of the offer, spreading false rumours about opposition members burning hospitals (disproved by several ONGs), forcing Capriles to back down under threat of greater violence and then conceding a partial recount without the only true element that mattered, the voting books (the books themselves don't contain any particularly dangerous information, as many posters wrongly assumed during last thread, just signatures and ID numbers, which in Venezuela are super public, unlike SSNs). By now it's a moot point though, sometimes I even think it was for the best. An opposition government with such a tiny mandate would've been hamstrung by the rest of the institutions still being under PSUV control, economical measures which in retrospect could've avoided the current catastrophe would've been widely criticized and the country would likely be mired in political violence with chavismo looking to sweep the upcoming parliamentaries to "save the country", much like the opposition is now. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 12:54 on Sep 17, 2015 |
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Sep 17, 2015 12:50
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Honestly, I don't believe they will suspend the elections either. But not because they can't, just because they've got too much invested in the narrative of being almost unbeaten at the polls. I'm just waking up now and reading about a military plane crashing at the Colombian border, I guess that's how they'll keep the tension up before Maduro and Santos meet.
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Sep 18, 2015 13:08
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Adventure Pigeon posted:So is it pretty much the opinion that all the Colombia/Guyana stuff is Maduro shopping around for an international crisis before the elections? It's pretty much the only play they have: they will not take any real measures for correcting the economy before the elections for fear of alienating more voters and further persecution of high-profile opposition figures would bring too much attention. One other aspect of the Colombian border crisis is the fact that out of the 26 circuits that are under a state of exception, 15 are basically tied when it comes to intention of votes (source for this data is in Spanish and I'm too lazy to translate all of it http://www.efectococuyo.com/efecto-cocuyo/15-de-los-26-circuitos-electorales-de-la-frontera-se-deciden-por-minima-diferencia). That gives the government an edge since they can use the state of exception to stop the opposition from campaigning there and use the military to intimidate voters on election day.
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Sep 26, 2015 14:53
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punk rebel ecks posted:Be honest (current and ex) Venezuelans. How likely do you think that the PSUV will be voted out this December? I think their recent move regarding the Supreme Justices provides a clue: it lessens the impact of an opposition majority in the National Assembly, so they don't expect their tricks to be enough to swing the vote. Now, even with an opposition majority the PSUV wouldn't simply implode. They'd still have a stranglehold on most other Venezuelan institutions and unless some major chavista players panic and start jumping ship, I don't see them just deciding to roll over and let the oppo do a clean sweep, they simply have too much to lose. My guess is they'll continue to do everything in their power to shorten the gap before 6D, ignore legality to reduce what the opposition could actually accomplish when they take their seats, maybe ban a few more opposition politicians from running and attempt to bribe them to jump sides. On the other hand, I'm sure they must be considering the possibility of outright fraud, since they're dead set on not allowing international monitoring of the elections and moves such as the forced resignation of the Supreme Justices could be just them covering their asses in case they decide that large scale fraud would be too risky.
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Oct 11, 2015 16:14
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Yesterday Maduro announced several economic measures and in a rare moment of clarity admitted that price controls had failed the Revolution. Their solution? To double down on price controls. There's gonna be a new taskforce to bring every single item for sale at the prices they determine in order to manufacture a false sense of plenty before the elections. Up until now —at least in the largest cities— you could find small grocery stores, butchers, etc. that sold stuff at unregulated prices but managed to keep healthy stocks (of miscellaneous poo poo at least, I haven't seen pasta, rice or beans in a while), thus alleviating the pressure a bit by catering to those that could afford to pay extra in exchange for not doing lines. What this means is that the government is planning to force them to liquidate their inventories, with no hope of being able to restock them since they will have to sell at artificially low prices. If you'll excuse me, I'll be stocking up on canned sardines.
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Oct 21, 2015 13:58
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The WSJ published an article yesterday about corruption at PDVSA (http://www.wsj.com/article_email/u-s-investigates-venezuelan-oil-giant-1445478342-lMyQjAxMTE1NzIyMjAyMTIwWj). It's full of gems, so forgive me for the quote-fest:quote:Now, U.S. authorities have launched a series of wide-ranging investigations into whether Venezuela’s leaders used PdVSA to loot billions of dollars from the country through kickbacks and other schemes, say people familiar with the matter. The probes, carried out by federal law enforcement in multiple jurisdictions around the U.S., are also attempting to determine whether PdVSA and its foreign bank accounts were used for other illegal purposes, including black-market currency schemes and laundering drug money, these people say. quote:No charges have been made public in the PdVSA matter and it is possible none will be filed. Earlier this month federal prosecutors from New York, Washington, Missouri and Texas met in person or by teleconference in Washington to coordinate actions and share evidence and witnesses in the various PdVSA-related probes, say three people familiar with the matter. The meeting also included agents from the Department of Homeland Security, the Drug Enforcement Administration, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies, these people say. quote:Mr. Ramírez was also suspicious of outsiders, say people who worked closely with him, so he placed relatives in senior positions. His mother-in-law, Hildegard Rondón, a former Supreme Court judge, was a top lawyer for the energy ministry. Mr. Ramírez’s brother-in-law Baldo Sansó was an aide who handled much of the oil company’s international bidding processes. And Mr. Ramírez’s wife, Beatrice Sansó, managed PdVSA’s cultural branch. quote:People close to Mr. Salazar say he enjoyed a life of private jets and sumptuous meals in the company of beauty pageant contestants. He was known to lead his own private orchestra, singing romantic ballads in concerts attended by friends and employees, these people say. quote:Inadequate financial controls made it difficult to detect fraudulent transactions, say current and former PdVSA officials. In 2005, Mr. Chávez created off-budget funds that spent billions in petrodollars generated by PdVSA on such things as subsidized housing and projects for Venezuela’s allies. The funds weren’t subject to central-bank controls. “There was no auditing in the management of the money,” says Ramon Espinasa, a PdVSA chief economist before the Chávez takeover, in an interview. In other news, amongst Maduro's announcements a couple of days back was the appointment of Diosdado Cabello's brother, Jose David Cabello as Minister of Commerce. The guy is currently Minister of Industries, Commerce and the National Center of Exterior Commerce (CENCOEX), formerly CADIVI, which manages the allotments of foreign currency for private individuals and companies. I mean, come on, at least have the decency to appoint a second cousin or something like the rest of the top chavista guys do. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Oct 22, 2015 |
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Oct 22, 2015 12:08
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I love the idea that he had a dedicated mortar and pestle just to gently caress with people's watches, I also choose to believe he snorted the remains during orgies with Venezuelan beauty queens  .
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Oct 22, 2015 13:43
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Mozi posted:Nobody has posted about this? Chuck mentioned it earlier and people have been talking about it these days, the Attorney General denied the accusations and said Nieves had been relieved of his duties due to "abandonment". The thing is everyone knows Leopoldo's trial was a farce, no one thinks otherwise except hardcore deluded chavistas, so his declarations aren't exactly shocking. Unless he rode off into the sunset with some damming incriminating evidence I don't see this rattling the government, since they're already being called out for their incompetence, corruption and authoritarianism constantly by the international media. Personally, I don't have a lot of sympathy for the guy. I can understand being scared for his family, but let's be honest here, if the government assigned him to the Lopez case his hands probably weren't clean to begin with. I'll bet he has some nice assets in the US and he was scared of sanctions due to his involvement.
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Oct 26, 2015 23:24
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Kavak posted:I know very little about economics, but why hasn't the government implemented a rationing system to try and deal with at least some of this? On top of what Chuck commented, there's also the fact that with the National Assembly elections a little over a month away they naturally don't want to rock the boat too much. Establishing a new system that could be perceived as rationing right now would piss off more people and they can't afford to lose a single vote as is. Plus, there's been lots of "rationing" systems implemented so far and none of them have succeeded in achieving anything except fostering outrage. Chuck mentioned "unofficial" rationing systems, an example of this would be my local farmacy not selling diapers unless you show up with a birth certificate (thereby proving you're not just buying them for reselling purposes) or birth control pills without a prescription. Both of those are real examples. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 15:13 on Oct 29, 2015 |
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Oct 29, 2015 14:55
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Chuck Boone posted:I agree. I realize the amount stolen must be a relatively small amount compared to what you've pointed out. I can't remember which book I read this in, but in the early-mid 2000s, Chavez created a fund with PDVSA revenues with the purpose of using it as an off-the-books piggy banks to pay for social services, support for overseas sympathizers, etc. Does anyone know what I'm talking about? Anyway, that's a part of it: money that comes in to the country, gets put into an invisible account, and then ends up being used who knows how. That would be Fonden I think, there's a spanish report for Reuters here (http://es.scribd.com/doc/108528270/Fonden-Reuters-Espanol-Venezuela), while it existed nearly a third of all money that went into Venezuela ended up there, according to the report it gobbled up approximately $100 billion during the 2005-2012 period, completely off the books and with no oversight. I say "while it existed" because as far as I know they supposedly unified all those off-the-books funds into a single one sometime this year, but I suppose there must still be some permutation of it out there.
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Nov 2, 2015 16:31
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The government's drive to force down prices in every store seems to have begun with clothing, in the past days I've seen a few stores in shopping malls and heard of others having forced sales at ridiculous prices. It's too little to have any meaningful impact on the elections, but I'm concerned about what will happen if they choose to try this with the small grocery stores and non-government controlled supermarkets in Caracas that somewhat alleviate the pressure. In the past, they've stuck mostly with clothes and electronics to buy votes. Aside from their old tricks, they're really stretching their imaginations this time around to drum up new votes. Namely, they literally hijacked an opposition party (the one next to the MUD's spot on the ballot), kept the oppo sounding name — MIN Unidad — their color scheme and are literally running ads that criticize themselves in order to trick people to cast votes for them.
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Nov 3, 2015 14:49
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beer_war posted:I just want to know WTH a "negated hypothetical scenario" is supposed to mean. It's just the guy mangling the Spanish language, his words were "en un escenario hipotetico negado". When I saw the clip I remember thinking "how the gently caress could that be translated?", but I suppose the meaning would be something like " hypothetically, if the opposition were to win the elections, which is a scenario we are not entertaining in the slightest, but you know, hypothetically...".
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Nov 4, 2015 14:40
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Kurtofan posted:They even got a guy with the same name, wow. The Supreme Court gave a ruling to suspend its board of directors and replaced them with new figures. They also did the same with the COPEI party a few months back.
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Nov 11, 2015 22:21
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Adventure Pigeon posted:I read these guys have diplomatic passports. Any chance they can use that to get out of this mess? Either way, it's funny and sad to see connected people like that get arrested. From what I understand, having a diplomatic passport doesn't automatically grant you immunity in the sense a diplomatic post would. The american courts don't seem to be dragging their feet either:  The government hasn't commented in any official manner regarding the arrests so far and most national newspapers have omitted mentions of the topic. What makes this more ridiculous is that the Flores family is notorious for their nepotism in the government, you can't throw a freaking stone in the center of Caracas without hitting a Flores second cousin with some cushy title, but the First Lady's "son" is relegated to making drug deals? Hot drat. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 21:36 on Nov 12, 2015 |
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Nov 12, 2015 19:23
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For a recent example of how regulations affect supply, we have eggs. A few weeks ago eggs could be bought for approximately Bs1200 per carton, making them quite expensive (around 1/15 of a monthly minimum wage) but they could be found everywhere, no one was queuing for eggs. Egg producers had been transparent about their cost structure, making it clear the high price tag passed on to customers wasn't a whim, but a necessity in order to keep production going. In a fit of pandering, the government decided a carton should cost no more than Bs420 and threatened all producers and store owners with heavy fines if they chose to disobey and the result was that in a matter of a couple of weeks, you can't find a single loving egg anywhere. Eggs were one of the few cheap sources of protein that could still be found with ease, since beans and meat are already heavily regulated. Just like that, an entire industry runs the risk of disappearing because a bunch of idiots skipped Econ 101.
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Nov 23, 2015 16:12
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Chuck Boone posted:Diosdado is a different creature because he doesn't talk as much as Maduro on television, but when he does he's usually "unveiling plots" or accusing people of stuff directly. He has a television show that airs on Wednesdays called Con El Mazo Dando where he tends to do just that. My impression of Diosdado is that he's more threatening and vicious than Maduro. Maduro will go off on someone from time to time, but there's something more meticulous and premeditated about Diosdado spending time on his television show presenting evidence against some enemy of the government that makes his speeches more sinister. That's my impression. Interestingly, Diosdado has regularly ranked amongst the most hated figures of Chavismo by their own supporters (and the opposition, of course) for a long time, because as Venezuelan popular lore has it he's made an immense fortune by looting the country. He didn't use to be an overtly public figure either despite his numerous high-ranking posts (and his brief stint as interim president in April of 2002) but during the past few years he's stepped into the spotlight with his TV show, constant public statements, the capture of Lopez, and the grooming of his daughter (who also happens to be a pop-star) as the face of young Chavismo. If there's not some power play dynamics there at the very least he had to step up in order to present a unified front and let people know that he's backing the bumbling Maduro. Which is effective because the dude is scary as gently caress.
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Nov 24, 2015 02:20
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I would like to point out the irony in that Lopez was convicted for subliminal incitement to violence in his speeches, in the same country where the president outright threatens the opposition with violence if they win an election.
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Nov 27, 2015 16:43
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Chuck Boone posted:This is insane. Thank you for posting this. Are you in Venezuela? The cake has to go to this ballot they've been distributing in some areas, where they just outright switched the parties:  On the topic of Diaz, the guy was gunned down at an opposition rally. Even if we accept the government's version that he was mixed up in some bad poo poo, why on earth would he be killed at a rally if the intention wasn't to intimidate voters? Doubly so because he was next to Tintori (Lopez's wife). This is freaking Venezuela, it's not hard to kill someone and get away with it, literally all you have to do is not make a scene and everyone will buy that he was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. During the past 3 years, there's been close to 10 murders in a two block radius of my home and no one bats an eye. Phlegmish posted:When are the elections scheduled again, the 6th of December? The chavistas will almost certainly try to rig the vote in some way, and depending on how blatant it is, it might provoke an international reaction. This is something I want to address. Even if I do believe there's blatant fraud in our elections, the voting system that the government loves to parade around so much does have the advantage that when it does happen, it's easy to verify. Aside from the Capriles/Maduro elections, I do not believe the government has really needed to do stuff the numbers on their sides to get comfortable victories, but during that one it was blatant because they flinched when it came to looking at the voting books. Let me break it down: when people are done voting they get a printed piece of paper with their picks, which is stuffed in a box, at the end of the day the machine prints out the overall results and those are sent to the electoral council. On top of that, people must sign a voting book to reflect they participated, which includes their signature, name, ID number and fingerprint. Then, a sample of 53% of tables must be audited by making sure the papers match the electronic tally, so you know the machine didn't switch poo poo around. Now, the fraud happens on voting centers where opposition witnesses are either non-existent or outright driven away through violence (there are hundreds of documented instances of this happening during that election). Chavismo has a powerful mobilization machine that keeps tally of whether their supporters show up or not, when voting is near ending (or should have already ended due to law) they go into overdrive to get people to centers where their participation was weak and get them to cast their votes, allowing them to have an idea of how they're performing in "real-time". Votes can also be cast by willing participants in lieu of others, even though there's a fingerprint machine that should not allow this, it can be easily bypassed. The electoral council is famous for delaying the results way past reasonable hours because they turn a blind eye on these occurrences and are complicit in allowing the PSUV to do whatever the gently caress they want. If they had allowed a full audit of the voting books, some level of fraud would've been evident: people voting in lieu of others and either not filling the books out or having the same fingerprints show up over and over again. I clearly remember foreigners freaking out when the opposition requested to audit the books then as if it were a big deal. It is not, that is why the books exist. Our ID numbers are not like American social security numbers in that you don't want to share that information. I have to give mine out all the loving time just to use my debit card on any establishment, I have the ID numbers of lots of people jotted down for when I need to transfer money online, Venezuelans are NOT zealous about this information. Signatures and fingerprints? Give me a break, the audit would've been done under strict security from both sides, who would steal this data? It was utter nonsense not to allow it, but these details were lost in translation by international news sources. Now, the good part about this kind of fraud is that it's hard as gently caress to pull off, it requires massive resources and people willing to commit a crime. It has a ceiling, and with PSUV support at its lowest point during its history, plus people fed up with poor living conditions, they might not be able to pull it off in a scale that would meaningfully alter the results of the elections. Their other option would be blatantly going in front of the cameras and giving fake results, which would be disproven in a matter of hours and leave the opposition with plenty of evidence in the tallies. Their actions do not point towards this option being viable, otherwise they wouldn't bother with cheap intimidation and confusion tactics. A more likely scenario is that they're preparing for a loss, but looking to mitigate it. If the opposition gets a two-thirds majority it would be game over, they could call for a constitutional referendum, sweep the infected institutions and more importantly, call for a vote to recall Maduro from office. A victory of that magnitude is looking possible, but it heavily depends on how election day goes. If the opposition wins a simple majority, chavismo could coexist with the opposition and give Maduro ample powers to legislate before the assembly is reconstituted, plus they would still control the sitting Supreme Court, which could block opposition bills. It would renovate their "democratic" credentials by ceding a victory in front of the world, but still retaining the core institutions that allow them to do as they please. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 01:47 on Nov 28, 2015 |
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Nov 28, 2015 01:38
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ComradeCosmobot posted:I'd love to hear Borneo Jimmy's take on this. He won't say anything of course, but I'd love to see him minimize it. Personally, I'm waiting to hear his thoughts the day after the opposition gains a majority in the assembly: "Guys, did you know that Venezuelans have to queue up for food and there's a critical shortage of medicine? It's outrageous. This sort of stuff never happened until yesterday when the opposition won the election."
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Dec 3, 2015 15:23
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The MUD has stated they have close to perfect witness coverage in voting centers this time around, so we should have a rough idea before the CNE officially announces the results (íf they choose to delay them as usual). Personally, my voting center looked as crowded as in every past presidential election. Historically, about 60%-70% percent of people vote in parliamentary elections, whereas the number rises to approximately 80% during presidentials. The latest polls had voter intention for today at approximately 70% (here's a breakdown in Spanish of all the polls https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Encuestas_de_las_elecciones_parlamentarias_de_Venezuela_de_2015). The real question today isn't whether the MUD will win the popular vote, but the margin of their victory. Later today, we will have a clear idea of how the rural areas are skewing and it is those that will give us a glimpse of the results. Due to gerrymandering, the rural vote is overrepresented; if the MUD manages to win some of these key areas, we would be looking at a landslide.
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Dec 6, 2015 18:30
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The CNE just suspended the credentials of ex-presidents Pastrana and Quiroga while they were on air calling for the government to follow the letter of the law and not keep voting centers open illegally. They found out right in the middle of the MUD press conference and took it with a laugh, saying "We didn't know this press conference had such huge ratings". Some videos have come up during the afternoon of chavista governors getting heavily booed and yelled at by the crowds at their own voting centers. The polls will close in little over an hour and the latest counts had participation above 70%, nearing presidential levels.
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Dec 6, 2015 22:26
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Phlegmish posted:How do you think Maduro will respond to his party's near-inevitable loss? In the past, they've taken away the power/budgets of elected opposition officials and created parallel bodies of governance. If the opposition obtains a simple majority their power would be limited and could be mostly neutralized through the Supreme Court (which hasn't ruled against the government in a single case during almost a decade). Anything beyond that takes us into uncharted territory, but I suspect their aim would be to neuter the assembly as much as possible.
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Dec 6, 2015 22:43
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The CNE decided to keep the polls open illegally for an extra hour to give a leg up to their friends (polls are meant to close by 6PM if there's nobody waiting to vote outside anymore). Funnily enough, one of the Rectors of the CNE went on air on a government channel to declare this was completely illegal and he was promptly taken off the air.
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Dec 7, 2015 00:04
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Chuck Boone posted:There have also been lots of reports (all the ones I saw were from Caracas) that voting centers were empty at 6:00 PM, but the CNE workers refused to close them as per the law. Yep, he's the one that was taken off VTV after making the remark. I guess he didn't get the memo. UPDATE: Well, godamm. It seems these elections had a bigger turnout than the 2013 presidentials, that's unheard of. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Dec 7, 2015 |
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Dec 7, 2015 00:33
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Things are coming along, albeit slowly. Thus far 47% of the voting tables (out of roughly 40k) have closed and transmitted the results. That's according to Eugenio Martinez (https://twitter.com/puzkas), who's the go-to journalist when it comes to Venezuelan election data. UPDATE: It's important to note that it's the military that's forcing some centers to stay open, not the civilians who run the centers. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 01:51 on Dec 7, 2015 |
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Dec 7, 2015 01:41
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Borneo Jimmy posted:How dare they still let people vote during an election with unprecedented turnout. What's being criticised is that centers remain open by force when there are no voters in line, when they shouldn't according to the law, and that the CNE illegally took a decision without consulting all of its members. Things you would understand if you ever bothered to read anything beyond whichever government propaganda happens to fall into your hands, or know anything about Venezuelan law. But then again, I would expect you to defend the PSUV if they set puppies on fire on live TV, so kudos for your consistency. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 02:36 on Dec 7, 2015 |
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Dec 7, 2015 02:25
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Borneo Jimmy posted:Except there are voters in line, which the opposition claim are somehow being faked. Again, the problem is the centers that were kept open without any voters in line. There were plenty and there are videos of witnesses pressuring the military to close them, that's how little people trust them and the CNE. The point is moot though, the pressure seems to have been enough to force most centers to close, even if three hours late. At the moment, 90% of the results are in.
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Dec 7, 2015 03:00
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The voting machines emit paper trails and witnesses are allowed to keep copies of these. If you have good enough coverage of witnesses, at this time you can have a pretty good idea of the overall results. Again, pretty much every single poll gave the opposition a healthy advantage. It's never been a matter of if, just by how much.
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Dec 7, 2015 03:32
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