Sub Par posted:Re: the rake, I hope once things settle down a bit the competition forces the rake down. As a casual player who probably takes this a little too seriously though, it's still fun. If online poker has taught us anything then, spoiler alert, it won't. The rakeless model doesn't work and there is no such thing as "competition forces" with respect to rake. Fish and whales drive the economy, and they couldn't care less about rake.
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Sep 21, 2015 15:53
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Sub Par posted:I don't mean rakeless, I mean lower rake and/or rakeback, which there was absolutely competition for. Yea competition where no one has incentive to change anything for 10 years.
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Sep 21, 2015 16:35
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CompeAnansi posted:So Jordan Reed hit 4x value on DK last night, which is a great start to the week. He also had two wide open targets in the endzone that Cousins was too inaccurate to captialize on, so it could have been a much bigger game. If his cost stays low I think he'll be a great value for the next few weeks since he is getting a ton of targets and is by far their best red zone option. Yea, he was in 1 of my 3 lineups. Shame he just missed the 100 yd bonus points.
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Sep 25, 2015 17:17
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JoshTheStampede posted:They both have a lot of targets though, and Crabs leads the NFL in targets for WRs. According to who? Edelman, D. Thomas, Julio Jones, and E. Sanders have more.
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Sep 25, 2015 17:23
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Thanks to whoever suggested Devonta Freeman holy gently caress
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Sep 27, 2015 20:31
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Huh. I thought I was down a buck last week, but apparently since I used FantasyPros to organize my saved lineups and clicked random buttons I'm now up $20. How is this legal.
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Sep 29, 2015 14:30
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Gobias Ind. posted:Starting Kaep in one GPP with the hope that he runs all over the Packers like it's 2013. Prepared for disappointment. I got one SF lineup for kicks. FantasyLabs reeeeally likes Kaepernick (on DraftKings) this week. Possibly because it's one of the few games that doesn't have a chance of getting hurricane weather.
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Oct 2, 2015 00:34
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SurgicalOntologist posted:That's exactly my point. The best way to find out what the ownership levels will be on a DFS game are to look them up on FantasyPros. No. FantasyPros does not have future ownership levels. They have projections, i.e. guesses. Anyways, despite how miserably you presented your argument, I'm pretty sure I agree with you that banning all employees from any DFS involvement in the long run isn't a solution, because either 1) there will be no long run or 2) regulation will include impartial 3rd parties that will define exactly who knows what, so only specific employees that are on the Game Integrity Team will be banned. Random but relevant link to Chris Grove's live updated FAQs: http://www.legalsportsreport.com/4548/draftkings-data-leak-faq/
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Oct 8, 2015 07:17
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I can't believe Snead was only 9.1% drafted, given all his press and positive projections. Guess that shows just how much people pay attention to the free tools available online. I can't believe Julio Jones still managed 17.7 points despite limping around on one leg the whole day.
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Oct 11, 2015 21:12
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Yuzenn posted:Freeman and Julio are drat LOCKS against the Saints defense...Thursday game be damned. No way on Julio, unless he has like the best injury report ever, because his leg looks miserable.
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Oct 12, 2015 04:55
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Cruised into my second top 100 finish in the FantasyPros freeroll for a smooth 300% ROI how is this legaaallllll
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Oct 13, 2015 14:22
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SLICK GOKU BABY posted:I've been using FantasyPros for NFL projections since it's free and seemed to be okay last week. However they don't do any Defense projections, are there any sites that publish defense fantasy projections? Just looking for a way to find the defenses that are going to put up 10-20 points on their own. 1) Just use the FantasyPros Lineup Optimizer to see the DEF projections. It uses the same filterable Expert Consensus list. 2) FantasyLabs http://www.fantasylabs.com/nfl/player-ratings/protrends/
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Oct 16, 2015 00:10
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SLICK GOKU BABY posted:That just says it's illegal to offer DFS. AKA, the sports books aren't able to offer DFS as a betting option. It's not saying anything about playing DFS. So, illegal then. This is exactly how online poker was dealt with, via making it illegal to offer.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:44
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JoshTheStampede posted:He means that casinos can't offer it but residents of Nevada can still play on FD/DK. Oh, it's true. Residents of Nevada can still play on FD/DK. But now Nevada is saying FD/DK are unregulated, and if they offer games to Nevada residents they are now breaking Nevada law. The extra note at the end mentioning sports books and casinos is just warning them to disassociate with the unregulated DFS companies unless/until FD/DK get gaming approvals.
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Oct 16, 2015 01:22
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SurgicalOntologist posted:Well, I did it... simulated the slate 200 times and submitted the 200 resulting "nuts" lineups to the DraftKings 25-cent GPP. The percentages look reasonable but man, some of these lineups are ridiculous. Goodbye $50. That sounds like a ton of fun, and is definitely something I'd do if I felt like upping my bankroll. Good luck goonsir 
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Oct 18, 2015 08:49
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SurgicalOntologist posted:For now I'm using the projections at numberfire, which include confidence intervals. I can recover the projected variance from the confidence intervals, and I calculated covariances from historical data (posted the results upthread). So I can come up with a variance-covariance matrix for every game, take the means directly from the projections, and pull numbers from the corresponding multivariate normal distribution. Nate Silver's Bayesian Fantasy Football has 5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95%, but you have to pay for the full data tables http://www.bayesff.com/weekly/ FantasyLabs has "Floor" and "Ceiling" projections, which are 15% and 85%, along with the mean projection. They also give "Consistency" and "Upside" ratings, which seem like simplified kurtosis and skew: http://www.fantasylabs.com/nfl/player-ratings/protrends/
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Oct 18, 2015 16:29
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SurgicalOntologist posted:In case anyone is curious, my Monte Carlo lineups won back $45 out of $50, so I'm okay with that. I'll probably keep on trucking and hope for a big win someday. My top lineup had 217.54 points, to finish 289/329,000 (for a whopping $9) with Russell Wilson, Arian Foster, Lamar Miller, Travis Benjamin, DeAndre Hopkins, Alshon Jeffery, Julius Thomas, Chris Ivory, and the Jets. Not bad for a lineup that's pretty much randomly generated. It even has a RB-DST stack, something I like to put in my "handmade" lineups. I had several more lineups above the 99th percentile. I think I won the other $5 back in H2Hs, basically a break-even week. Grats and all, but come on, you can't be sharing all this with us and not tell us what your worst lineup was 
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Oct 21, 2015 07:30
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Marshmallow Blue posted:Holy crap lamar miller. Glad im against 0 shares in cash. 2nd week in a row that my Double Up lineup scored the most points. Thanks random-rear end Lamar Miller that happened to fit in my remaining salary for the flex spot 
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Oct 26, 2015 03:51
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Marshmallow Blue posted:I've got 8 Line-ups across 21 Entries. Part of that is to reduce exposure if a player flops, but some of it is due to me playing several different slates based on finding some lower win opponents in H2Hs. DraftKings: Look for 4x+ value ceiling risk guys. It's barely worth mincashing GPPs (may as well play double ups), so you have to just go for it and aim for 200+ points or bust with your $50,000. e.g. never take a QB that's over $7000 because its too hard to score 28+ points, and its more likely a $5x00 QB against a mediocre defence will be the one any given week that does it. Same concept for RB/WR. For TE the limit is around $5000. For DST if I'm paying over $3200 they better be the surest pick ever. Choose two, maybe three safe non-QB picks, crapshoot the rest.
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Oct 28, 2015 16:51
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Yuzenn posted:Numberfire or fantasypros has lineup generators that you can use for free and then I think about ownership levels and matchups. GPP's require low ownership to hit it real big so usually it's the combination of sleeper QB and or defense going off that make it big....last week it happened to be the ENTIRE dolphins team but that was unusual and probably not repeatable this season. By their nature, these optimizers are great for making Cash Game lineups but miserable at GPPs. Here's a website that has actually been putting money down to test the optimizers and reporting the results: http://www.dailyoverlay.com/expert-grading/nfl-optimal-lineup-analysis/ One way to make your GPP lineup is to make the Fantasy Pros optimal lineup, exclude 6-7 players, hit Optimize, exclude 3-4 more players, hit Optimize, repeat until lineup looks sufficiently absurd.
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Oct 28, 2015 17:00
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Teeter posted:I had none of the big plays and managed to break even somehow Broke even as well sans crazy record setting performance players, although my cash lineups that carried me did play Julio Jones and Todd Gurley.
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Nov 3, 2015 08:15
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Yuzenn posted:http://www.legalsportsreport.com/5762/nj-dfs-bill/ It's not an outright ban. DFS can be regulated in Nevada. It's an implied ban, because getting a gaming license for DFS likely implies only in-state regulation, so it will be a ringed market, just like what legal online regulated poker is in Nevada today (also assuming the same shared pool exception with Delaware). This effectively kills DFS because it's not profitable enough to go through the licensing process just to have Nevada-only players. We are years away from legislators figuring out interstate commerce and shared player pools for regulation. If your state right now is looking at a regulation bill of any kind, it is an implied ban. edit: wow I wrote all that before actually reading the article, and there it is quote:The most onerous part of the bill appears to be that it would make DFS an intrastate activity, not an interstate one. In the bill’s definition of a “daily fantasy sports provider”: Don't do it, NJ AnacondaHL fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Nov 4, 2015 |
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Nov 4, 2015 18:23
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Lutha Mahtin posted:the only legislator in minnesota who has proposed anything related to dfs has said nothing about this. he only wants to require fantasy sites that do over $X amount of business to require background checks and register with the state so they can comply with potential audits or investigations. the fact that he hasn't specifically said "no interstate ban" doesn't somehow validate your argument, nor would you be correct even if he does at some point say that he does want that kind of restriction, nor if the eventual law does include it Sounds like your legislator has no idea what they are talking about. It's far more likely they are spouting words for the free positive public image boost via dogpiling on DFS. And Nevada is a perfect example to look at here. Again, this is all just repeat history of online poker. And Nevada is one of two states that has actually figured out legal regulated interstate online poker, so whatever conception you have about tourism or whatever is misguided. But lets assume for a moment your legislator does know a little about what is going on. Knowing "$ amount of business" in your state mixed with "register with the state" is a two part code word for "we want to tax you". And once again, unless the entirety of Congress undergoes some miraculous mass realization, they will quickly discover how hard it is to do that while allowing interstate play. It took years for NV and DE to figure it out. NJ is still trying to figure it out. There is a 0.001% chance Minnesota can regulate DFS, get taxes from it, all while allowing interstate play, in any reasonable time.
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Nov 5, 2015 19:04
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Hahaha my Derek Carr stacked lineup that happens to have Antonion Brown that I decided to chuck $1 at, this is a skill game
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Nov 8, 2015 22:38
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Gobias Ind. posted:FanDuel has asked me to verify my personal information in order to keep playing. Anyone else get this request yet? Apparently they're rolling it out slowly so they don't get flooded with responses. The request includes providing them with your social insurance/social security number. As always LegalSportsReport http://www.legalsportsreport.com/6204/fanduel-identity-verification/ In short, this is what regulated online gambling does (i.e. poker). But FanDuel and DFS is still unregulated, so your reservations are understandable. As always, play at your own risk.
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Nov 24, 2015 18:11
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The SituAsian posted:If youre not buried with work like me today, legal sports report is live tweeting the New York dfs hearings. David Boies (represented Gore in Bush v Gore, other very high profile legal cases) is counsel for draftkings "Bad move by State's attorney: she is actually reading from her notepad. Not word for word, but using it as a crutch. Just talk to us" "Actually, she's reading from a script. This is not an effective way to use oral argument" "She is still reading! I am stunned. So ineffective. Odds of a FD/DK win are inching up" lol
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Nov 25, 2015 23:14
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