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winvirus posted:It would be cool to see which players were closest to their projected points, and which were furthest away; or perhaps a list of "reliable" players who hit or exceeded their projected points at least 85% of the time or something I don't know that there are accessible data sets of past week-by-week projections from the various projection sources. We'd need that data in order to do those comparisons.
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Sep 17, 2015 20:53
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Titans DST is not looking like a good GPP play so far. But neither are the Saints, so I would have been screwed either way.
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Sep 20, 2015 19:29
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That last second Matthews TD saved my week. Now I'll be anxiously watching the games tomorrow to see if I fall out of the payout zone. Looking forward to next week. Does anyone know where I could find a list of how all the players scored on DraftKings and FanDuel this week? It feels like an obvious thing to have but I can see to find a site that has it.
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Sep 21, 2015 00:39
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I averaged about 105th in my double ups where only the top 100 cash out. The ravens giving me -1 points really screwed me. Every single defense I was even considering this week was terrible, with the exception of the saints who were merely mediocre. In retrospect, my picks were good, but RBs under performed across the board, as did many of the top QBs and the hyped defenses. I guess I need to alter my selection criteria for RB/QB/DST next week. EDIT: I also agree that it is unlikely that they will explicitly ban DFS since it would be difficult to ban it without banning other clearly unobjectionable fantasy sports. CompeAnansi fucked around with this message at 15:43 on Sep 22, 2015 |
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Sep 22, 2015 15:38
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I prefer H2H because you will still win some of your matchups even if a couple players bomb and you miss the cutoff for cashing on a double up. On the flip side, you will occasionally lose a H2H because your opponent had an insane lineup even though you would have cashed in any double up. So the balance depends on how confident you are in your lineups. If you are very confident, double ups may be better. But if you play H2H do NOT post your own games. Instead look through the games of others and search for their username on rotogrinders to see if they show up. If they don't, then its a good bet they are new. Those are the only H2H I'll play.
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Sep 23, 2015 23:10
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So Jordan Reed hit 4x value on DK last night, which is a great start to the week. He also had two wide open targets in the endzone that Cousins was too inaccurate to captialize on, so it could have been a much bigger game. If his cost stays low I think he'll be a great value for the next few weeks since he is getting a ton of targets and is by far their best red zone option.
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Sep 25, 2015 15:14
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JoshTheStampede posted:My dilemma this week: Moncrief, Crabtree, or Allen Robinson in cash on FD? They're all about the same price. Robinson > Moncrief >>> Crabtree. That said, I see both Robinson and Moncrief as being primarily GPP plays since they have yet to demonstrate consistency. Opportunity is there for sure, but the floors aren't high enough for me to be comfortable with them in cash games. If I had to pick one, it'd be Robinson. A sneaky cash play on FD might be Nate Washington since he's been getting ~9 targets a game. Now he hasn't been great at converting those targets into catches, which is likely the QB's fault, but that's good volume for his price.
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Sep 25, 2015 17:03
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Sub Par posted:This. Especially if Hopkins doesn't clear the concussion protocol and is inactive on Sunday. Keep a close eye. Hopkins returned to practice today. He still needs to pass concussion testing before being cleared to play, but it looks like he'll play, which lowers Washington's value. On the other hand, Tevin Coleman has been ruled out, so Devonta Freeman should be the lead back.
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Sep 25, 2015 19:40
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JoshTheStampede posted:Yeah, I'm gonna be on Freeman. All the arguments for Starks apply (he's not actually very good but it doesn't matter because he'll get 20 carries and a few catches). Yeah I like Freeman too. My main problem with him is that on DK he is more expensive than Yeldon. Yeldon has been getting way more rushing attempts and is a more talented player. The only downside to Yeldon is game flow. The Patriots will likely destroy the Jags, so he might not get as many carries as he has been getting.
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Sep 25, 2015 20:26
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How do people feel about the other cheap backups for injured starters (assuming that the starters don't play)? Devonta Freeman, Bilal Powell, Chris Polk, and Fred Jackson. Talent-wise I have the most faith in FJax, but I feel like Lynch is the most likely to play. All of them are cheap enough that 3x value is easily within their reach if they get the start, but picking between them will be key because at least one of them will have a much better game than the rest. EDIT: Ended up going with Freeman and Mathews in most of my lineups. Looking pretty good so far. CompeAnansi fucked around with this message at 18:51 on Sep 27, 2015 |
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Sep 26, 2015 15:50
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So here was my main lineup for the Thursday-Monday slate: I'm in two tournaments right now, currently ranked 3rd in both. If I'd started Cam Newton instead of Wilson, I think I'd have had a legit chance of winning one of them. Oh well. Still, pretty good regardless. Anyone else have some success this weekend?
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Sep 28, 2015 01:55
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Ozu posted:Woodhead was a huge disappointment though. Yeah, I bailed on Woodhead in many of my lineups once I realized that Freeman was only $200 more on DK. The spots he remained in were lost once it came out that DeMarco was out and Mathews was the starter. That said, although I thought both were better values than Woodhead, I didn't see him having THIS bad of a game. I would have happily played him if Mathews hadn't gotten the start.
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Sep 28, 2015 17:20
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What a crazy high scoring week.
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Sep 29, 2015 05:06
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I'm a bit concerned about Randle this week. This is how many yards he got on each of his carries on his 'huge' game last week: 28, 37, 20, 1, -1, 1, 9, 4, 1, 0, 1, -1, -4, 2, -2. Sure it adds up to 85 yards and 3 TDs, but it looks to me more like he got lucky and broke a couple big runs on the first drive and then was bottled up not accomplishing much other than punching in a couple 1 yard TDs. And that was against the 32nd ranked Atlanta defense against the run in adjusted fantasy points allowed. This week he's facing a still soft but much better 20th ranked New Orleans defense. Now if you think the Dallas passing game will be doing well enough to keep giving Randle 1 yard TD runs, then that's not as much of a problem, but I am exercising some caution when considering him in my lineups this week.
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Oct 1, 2015 15:08
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For it being a weird, low scoring week, I did alright. It really helped me that Monday night football was low scoring since I didn't have anyone in it. Ended up getting 180% of my entry fees back across the three sites I played this week, which is pretty nice. Would be even nicer if I was actually playing with big money, but nice nonetheless. How'd everyone else do? EDIT: I also totally called Randle sucking this week, which is the most important victory in my mind. He did fall into a TD, but was awful otherwise and didn't even hit 2x value. CompeAnansi fucked around with this message at 07:01 on Oct 6, 2015 |
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Oct 6, 2015 06:56
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Ozu posted:I just cant stop min-cashing these $5 GPPs for like $7. I mean, its better than losing I suppose but I need to rethink my strategy for higher upside. Me too. I think I need to rely a bit less on projections and more on the Fan Duel ownership % in constructing my GPP lineups. Being a slave to projections means that you basically put in cash lineups with a stack, which is often enough to cash, but almost never enough to cash high.
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Oct 6, 2015 15:31
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Hopkins is a total stud. He hit 4.29x value on DK without a TD and got 22.4 on Yahoo (not sure how to do value calculations with their pricing). He's a weekly start until we have reason to think his target count will decrease.
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Oct 9, 2015 06:17
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Yuzenn posted:New rule, include Freeman and Hopkins into every lineup ever. Yeah Freeman is looking like the real deal. I backed off of him a little bit and didn't put him in every lineup this week and put Charles in instead. Whoops. But who could predict an ACL tear early in the game... Hopkins is a stud and has been a stud for a while. The way he can get wide open on good coverage reminds me of Julio.
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Oct 12, 2015 04:42
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SLICK GOKU BABY posted:Tried hard this week, made a spreadsheet with just a free projection. And only entered 2 $5 heads ups and a $1 tourney. But I should be winning both the heads up matches, but need a miracle from Rivers and Gates to cash the tourney. I highly, HIGHLY, recommend entering as many contests as is feasible with your bankroll. So if you're working with less than $20, you should be entering $1 contests only. If you're working with $200, then maybe you can graduate to $3-5 contests. Doing this will enable you to diversify the lineups you're facing, giving you more proportional payoff for how well your lineups actually performed. In short, you're taking a large risk on those two $5 H2Hs compared to ten $1 H2Hs.
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Oct 12, 2015 15:37
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Marshmallow Blue posted:... Stephen Gostkowski ... Oh so you must be playing FanDuel. I don't know what everyone else's feelings are on this, but for me, I won't play Thursday slates on FanDuel. FanDuel is the only site that fully locks your lineups as soon as the first player starts on your team. Others like DraftKings and Yahoo will only lock the players who have started, allowing you to still swap out the players yet to play if you desire. This isn't as big a deal on FanDuel for other slates because the gap between the Sunday and Monday games is not as consequential. However, with such a big time gap between the Thursday games and the Sunday ones, I don't like taking the risk of not being able to change the rest of my lineup after Thursday, so I avoid Thursday slates on that site.
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Oct 16, 2015 15:28
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Yeah this has been the worst week of the season for me. Two terrible decisions: fade the passing game in HOU vs JAX because of 20+mph winds, and Dion Lewis  . I knew it was only a matter of time before Belichick belichicked, but man it hurts when it finally happens. Still up money on the season, but I lost a lot of my gains this week.I also can't seem to hit on a defense even when I pay for an easy layup like the Jets this week. I think I've only had one lineup with a DST that broke 10 points this year. That's a hole I'd been able to climb out of so far, but not this week.
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Oct 19, 2015 13:42
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jarjarbinksfan621 posted:They definitely attract higher caliber opponents at fanduel. If you click on the names in the lobby, you'll see the majority are these guys with 20-100k+ games won, people doing it for a living or very seriously at least. That's why you get the FanDuel extension so it shows their games played after hovering the name and color codes them. Quicker way to find easier matchups.
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Oct 20, 2015 21:14
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Marshmallow Blue posted:Also, Been using that wonderful chrome extension to target under 100 win players (I'm 100% "green" myself), but what are these people thinking not picking their own opponents and just letting their H2H fall to 2-10K winners? They either don't know what they're doing or they don't care enough to put in the effort to pick their own opponents. Either way I'm glad they do it.
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Oct 21, 2015 22:07
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I'll just note that the generally recommended percentages if you want to do this for the long haul are to use 20% of your entry monies MAX on GPPs. My own rule of thumb is that I need to be able to make enough if I win my current average percentage of cash games to cover my GPP entries assuming they all lose. So, for example, $20 of entries gives me $17 for entries that have a 50% chance of payout. Winning 65% of those gives me ~$20 back. That, then, gives me $3 for GPP entries. Now I don't follow this exactly because I also play some double ups and triple ups, but it gives you the general idea: I want my cash entries to be able to fund my spending on GPPs.
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Oct 27, 2015 18:28
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Yuzenn posted:Houston seems to give up TONS of points to anyone so Mettenberger might be a really sneaky high value play. Or he could suck....it's all a crapshoot! He sucked last week. He was an amazing value on Yahoo, but he still didn't hit value because he didn't even hit 10 points.
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Oct 28, 2015 16:29
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I know this is mostly football chat, but has anyone tried out basketball? I've dabbled the last two days and it's been pretty fun. One of the interesting things about basketball is there is a dearth of information. There are no FootballGuys or 4for4 for basketball, so if you're into doing analysis on your own you can really give yourself a leg up on the general public. The one thing that is a bit more stressful is that basketball is a true daily sport, which requires a lot more time and research if you don't have most of your process automated.
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Oct 29, 2015 14:57
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Marshmallow Blue posted:Threw a dollar into a NBA 50/50. I know nothing about basketball (except I hate Lebron because I am a playoffs only fair-weather Celtics fan)... For a free nba dfs source, I like this guy's methodology: http://joshengleman.com/ He posts projections and shortlists every day for Fan Duel and Draft Kings.
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Nov 2, 2015 18:26
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What free projection sources do you all use for NBA? I'll go ahead and share the ones I've found and if anyone has any additions that'd be great. http://www.numberfire.com/nba/fantasy/fantasy-basketball-projections https://rotogrinders.com/projected-stats/nba?site=draftkings http://joshengleman.com/
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Nov 8, 2015 23:01
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Yuzenn posted:http://www.dailyoverlay.com/expert-grading/nba-expert-grading/ is a website that's been grading the websites....the nba section doesn't have a perfect lineup grading section like NFL but it shows which writers have been in the money Yeah, that grades picks though, not projections. It's useful for helping refine your shortlist, but I am looking for full numerical points projections for every player that I can use in my optimizer.
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Nov 9, 2015 01:45
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Yuzenn posted:https://www.dailyfantasycafe.com/tools/lineupoptimizer/nba Oh yeah I totally forgot that they gave away projections too. I used to use their optimizer, manually inputing my averaged projections, but then I wrote my own one, so I stopped using it. But I can definitely make use of their projections. Thanks.
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Nov 9, 2015 02:48
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Yuzenn posted:I gotta start playing more NBA though, it's been MONEY so far and I don't have to wait a week to be disappointed. My ROI is way higher in NBA than NFL. It has slowly taken over as my main dfs sport.
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Nov 10, 2015 01:21
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Technically it was a request to stop and they can challenge it in court. I imagine that they will keep taking bets until the case is decided. Also, it only applies to the the main two sites so you can still play on Yahoo or some of the other smaller sites. [EDIT] Confirmation of DK fighting the ruling and not withdrawing from New York: https://twitter.com/davidpurdum/status/664231538855428096 CompeAnansi fucked around with this message at 01:33 on Nov 11, 2015 |
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Nov 11, 2015 01:08
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The hearing in NY is tomorrow. It'll be interesting what the outcome is, although I doubt a verdict will be reached tomorrow, I suppose it is possible the judge could issue an injunction.
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Nov 24, 2015 22:17
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| # ¿ May 1, 2024 21:26 |
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Welp. No decision about an injunction, but the judge said he'll make his decision within the next 1-2 weeks.
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Nov 25, 2015 22:07
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