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SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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Well I won $8 on my free $3 MLB game. The rest of my CFB games today were all 0s :(. Down $2.75. Hopefully Utah and UCLA can put some numbers on the board for me in the later game :D

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SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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TBH, I can't imagine too any people being able to grind a profit on these sites. It's highly unlikely that you can get a big enough advantage picking players to simply offset the house take on the contests.

I'm in a 300k draftkings Sunday and Monday night GPP, 115,000 people paid $3 to join and DraftKings is giving out 300k in prizes. So they are keeping 45k as the house take. Which is a 15%% vig. That's 3 times higher than the 5% vig that a regular sports book will take on most bets.

If you can find a GPP that isn't going to get enough people to join and the site has to put money into the prize pool, than there might be a gambling edge for you there, but you would have until nearly closing time to enter.

The head to head contests are the only ones that I can see that DraftKings is only taking 10% of the prize pool, even the double ups have the 15% house take.

Unless you are one of the top handicappers, I highly doubt you can overcome a house edge that is taking 15% of he money in the prize pool.

In short, for 99% of the people out there, you probably should be playing these for fun (and it is lots of fun), not with any expectation of turning a profit. Just play these to have fun until they get banned in a year or two.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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I've got 1 contest that's alive, currently winning $10, but only 7 or 8 points back from getting into the top 100 and getting $100+). I still have a RB and a WR to play on Monday night which I'm going to look into switching them I think. Right now I have Donte Moncrief and Chris Ivory.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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gently caress Luck and the colts and gently caress my bad pick.

Pulling in a $5 mlb triple up at least and on the edge of cashing the $3 moonshot.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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drat, the Dodgers worthless homerun in the 8th cost me like $10bux by knocking me out of two contests. Still won a triple up to cover everything and put me up $5 from starting this poo poo last week.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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OrangeKing posted:

Indeed - I'd love to hit a contest big one of these days, but whatever, it's a lot of fun to play, even on the weeks that go badly, like this one. On to Week 3!

By the way, I'd be stunned if DFS got the banhammer from the federal government, given the powerful media and sports interests aligned with the major sites. On the other hand, I'd be almost as stunned if these sites didn't see themselves regulated in the next few years.

Poker got banned pretty much out of the blue with just a couple upset congressmen sticking a clause in a completely unrelated bill that nobody read. The extreme advertising that DraftKings and FanDuel are doing this season is picking up a lot of eyes and there's going to be some special interest groups not too happy. I hope I'm wrong since it's fun, but it just seems like a big target for anti-gambling groups.

And considering the stance on normal sports betting (sportscenter can't even mention point spreads/margins for the NFL & Las Vegas isn't allowed to do any advertising that shows gambling during the NFL playoff broadcasts), I can't believe the NFL is backing DFS the way they are.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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TheKevman posted:

They have an entire segment with Cousin Sal on SportsCenter every Thursday where they talk about exactly this...

I see, it's been a while since I've had cable and regularly was able to watch SportsCenter, I wonder when the NFL decided to relax on that one, or maybe it was only the actual broadcasts that they don't let talk of gambling in.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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jabro posted:

Why the hell do I play baseball? The best players are barely successful 30% of the time. That just screams losing and yet I trot a couple of lineups every week.

Carrasco just put up 57 points pitching 9 innings with 15 strikeouts.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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Dalton and Green is going to save my early games. Earned 70+ points for a $5 triple up to give me a $4 profit on the day!

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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JoshTheStampede posted:

So with Big Ben getting hurt today and the Steelers playing Thursday, Vick is still priced low for the Monday-Thursday slates. Think that makes it worth playing or will it just be "everyone takes Vick"?

I thing that's gonna be two hard games to pick on, but more than likely Aaron Rodgers is going to be getting a big portion of the draft rate. Kansas City's defense is giving up quite a few passing yards (260+)... but they are also getting a lot of sacks so who knows what they are going to do tomorrow night.

I would be worried about the Ravens coming out really hard this week with their 0-3 record after playing solid games the last 2 weeks.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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Mike Vick for $5000 on DraftKings seems like a nice way to make room for some big running backs and receivers. He's bound to get some good runs in as well.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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Tried hard this week, made a spreadsheet with just a free projection. And only entered 2 $5 heads ups and a $1 tourney. But I should be winning both the heads up matches, but need a miracle from Rivers and Gates to cash the tourney.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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I've been using FantasyPros for NFL projections since it's free and seemed to be okay last week. However they don't do any Defense projections, are there any sites that publish defense fantasy projections? Just looking for a way to find the defenses that are going to put up 10-20 points on their own.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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That just says it's illegal to offer DFS. AKA, the sports books aren't able to offer DFS as a betting option. It's not saying anything about playing DFS.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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I would be really happy about Freeman being a workhorse but my heads up opponent drafted him and he has nearly a 50% draft rate in the tourney I'm in. I guess it's good since I doubt another running back is going to put up 40 points this week.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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Yuzenn posted:

Gurley you better not screw me!!

Bend over and oil up sweetheart.

I'm giving a lot of action to Gurley too, he's so cheap, it's hard to pass up...

SLICK GOKU BABY fucked around with this message at 14:04 on Oct 25, 2015

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SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

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Yuzenn posted:

He was the chalk play for sure....that browns defense lets anyone run on them. I think he's gotta be like 60% owned this week if not more.

That browns offense gave up 25 points to the Rams defense, like holy poo poo how do you play that bad?

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