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Really wishing I had Mariota and Jones today instead of Tyrod and Adams. Also,  Luck in most of my cash games it is so dumb that this is legal and Poker isn't.
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Sep 14, 2015 00:39
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Really, really glad I went with my gut and didn't fade Julio Jones. May squeak into the money in a couple GPPs if Peterson has just a mediocre night.
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Sep 15, 2015 05:18
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Ryan Mallett is starting for the Texans this week. He looked decent last week in 6 minutes of work: 8/13, 98 yards and a TD. Granted it was at the end of the game and not necessarily garbage time but close enough that the Chiefs were playing a pretty simple defense. That said, the Texans play the Panthers next week whose D is not nearly as good as the Chiefs. At $5100 on DK, I'm considering him for some of my GPP lineups. Am I being a crazy homer?
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Sep 17, 2015 00:16
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Good points. In the end I think I'll stack him with Hopkins in one lineup and roll the dice.
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Sep 17, 2015 02:07
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In case anybody wants it, I used NLFDB to build an archive of DraftKings fantasy points by player, by week, for every regular season game going back to 2009. It doesn't include DST but if there's demand for it I can do that. You can download it here from DropBox. I'm actually having quite a bit of fun messing with NFLDB and using it for some of my own purposes, so if anyone has datasets they'd like to see, let me know and I'll see if I can produce them. Edit: in case you're curious Jamaal Charles has scored the most DraftKings points in a single game since 2009 with a whopping 62.5 in this game. Sub Par fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Sep 17, 2015 |
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Sep 17, 2015 16:42
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CompeAnansi posted:I don't know that there are accessible data sets of past week-by-week projections from the various projection sources. We'd need that data in order to do those comparisons. Yeah unfortunately, getting a reliable dataset of pre-action projections going back a few years is difficult. There are a lot of people looking for something like that on reddit, and as best I can tell the people who have it aren't sharing. Edit: I can get some projections from FFToday, but I will need to write some code to scrape the data. I'll work on that tonight. Sub Par fucked around with this message at 21:29 on Sep 17, 2015 |
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Sep 17, 2015 21:22
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Teeter posted:What's the best way to find GPP with overlay? I'm only on DraftKings so far but will probably diversify as the season (and my DFS knowledge) progresses This here seems to be pretty handy. Haven't used it myself though.
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Sep 18, 2015 14:54
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Speaking of overlay, DraftKings has a $100k gtd NFL Freeroll this week. Don't forget to toss a lineup into there - first place is $10k.
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Sep 18, 2015 21:24
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Yeah, that was a pretty brutal week. It looks like I did well enough in the double-ups that I will break even though, as long as nothing insane happens tonight. My Mallett/Hopkins stack bombed. Jeremy Hill, Abdullah, Lynch: . The one thing I had going for me was a Manning/OBJ stack in a couple places. Re: the rake, I hope once things settle down a bit the competition forces the rake down. As a casual player who probably takes this a little too seriously though, it's still fun.
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Sep 21, 2015 14:48
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AnacondaHL posted:If online poker has taught us anything then, spoiler alert, it won't. The rakeless model doesn't work and there is no such thing as "competition forces" with respect to rake. Fish and whales drive the economy, and they couldn't care less about rake. I don't mean rakeless, I mean lower rake and/or rakeback, which there was absolutely competition for.
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Sep 21, 2015 16:03
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Man I had a good sweat in a couple $10 double-ups there. Cashed in both, by 1.16 points in one and 1.2 in another. J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!
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Sep 22, 2015 04:45
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Re: legality, it's my understanding that DFS isn't legal because of some loophole in UIGEA, it's legal because it was expressly carved out as legal (in the same way that horse racing is frequently carved out as legal in similar laws). From the act, listing things that are not included in the definition of "bet or wager":quote:(ix) participation in any fantasy or simulation sports game or educational game or contest in which (if the game or contest involves a team or teams) no fantasy or simulation sports team is based on the current membership of an actual team that is a member of an amateur or professional sports organization (as those terms are defined in section 3701 of title 28) and that meets the following conditions: That's pretty clear and expressly authorized. It probably took some powerful interests to get such clear language inserted in the bill in the first place, and I don't think dozens of brands worth a collective several billion dollars would hitch their wagon to something like this without knowing it's safe. With online poker, I think we all knew the clock was ticking back in 2006. With DFS, I don't think there's even a remote chance that it gets banned. Regulated? Maybe, but not to any significant degree.
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Sep 22, 2015 14:39
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The SituAsian posted:While online poker died in a big way in the us when the UIEGA passed it really didn't go away to the extent it has until Black Friday in April 2011 (right?) Correct. Party and a few others immediately left the US market, but it was still super easy to deposit, withdraw, and play on FTP, Stars, and others until April 2011. Depositing got harder and harder as the years wore on, but it was never hard enough to keep the fish away. gently caress, I miss online poker.
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Sep 23, 2015 00:21
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Dunbar for cash, but I'd probably consider Blount for a tournament.
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Sep 25, 2015 15:12
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CompeAnansi posted:A sneaky cash play on FD might be Nate Washington since he's been getting ~9 targets a game. Now he hasn't been great at converting those targets into catches, which is likely the QB's fault, but that's good volume for his price. This. Especially if Hopkins doesn't clear the concussion protocol and is inactive on Sunday. Keep a close eye.
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Sep 25, 2015 17:27
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The SituAsian posted:These scores are out of control. Yeah. I have 200 points in one tournament with Kelce left to play and have basically no shot at winning more than $9 for my trouble. An insane week.
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Sep 28, 2015 14:49
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I got pretty much murdered this week. I am counting on Seattle's D to score, like, a bazillion points to get me into the black. If Eric Ebron and Ameer Abdullah could somehow be awesome too, that would help.
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Oct 5, 2015 21:06
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I have a couple lineups with him. I usually stack with Jamaal Charles because when they score it will be mostly him, and PPR for all of Alex Smith's dumpoffs should be pretty solid.
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Oct 8, 2015 14:58
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In hindsight I probably should have yanked Julio out of more of my lineups. Him having a mediocre day and Demaryius sucking rear end really screwed me. Most of my lineups contained one of them and my best scoring one had them both and still managed 180 on DK. I'm learning some important lessons today though, and think I'll do better next week.
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Oct 12, 2015 00:33
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JoshTheStampede posted:That last second TD from Bell took me from down 20 bucks to up 30, so thanks Leveon! It took me from up $10 to down $3  Matt Ryan really hosed me this week. Had a couple lineups that would have been in the top 50-100 of some large GPPs with virtually any other QB. God damnit.
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Oct 13, 2015 16:40
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Yuzenn posted:That's true but Houston has been REALLY bad this season. This is true and as a Texans fan, here's some additional insight: the kind of lovely defense we have doesn't require a good quarterback or deep throws or even deep threats. Nearly all of the yardage we gave up vs the Dolphins last week was YAC. Tannehill completed 18 passes, only half of which were more than 2 yards from the LOS in the air. Our defense takes terrible angles and cannot tackle. I don't know enough about the Titans to know if they have players capable of getting that type of YAC success against the Texans. While the D is bad, the Dolphins have a couple fast, talented, shifty guys who made that day happen. If the Titans have a couple as well, then your theory will probably work out.
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Oct 28, 2015 19:57
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Metapod posted:Let me tell you then. The Titans have two hbs (andrews and sankey) that have the ability to shred the texans. They won't get the opportunity to shred the Texans because whiz will give mccluster all the carries and completely forget about sankey while giving andrews some touches here and there. Wright is the fast talented shifty guy on the team. Sweet. I am hoping we get shredded on checkdowns and screens again so RAC gets shown the door. I was heavily into Landry and Miller last week because of how lovely our D is, and it worked out well for me 
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Oct 29, 2015 05:57
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| # ¿ May 1, 2024 20:09 |
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I was really busy at work and took the week off of NFL DFS with the exception of a $0.25 last second homer-inspired Texans stack. Picked a great week to not play.
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Nov 2, 2015 21:02
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