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The bishop's motives for killing Blane are pretty weak, though. Yes, Blane seems to know about the scandal. But he was also using that scandal as leverage in order to, by the sound of things, conceal some plan or plot that was going to take place on the cruise. The bishop had no reason to pre-emptively go apeshit on him at such an early stage, rather than just stay quiet throughout the trip and avoid any ruckus that could lead back to him and the scandal. If Blane hadn't sent him a letter at all, he would have no motive whatsoever. Speaking of which, we really need to come up with some plausible explanation for why Blane would send a letter like that in the first place. In short, what was Blane planning? Hyper Crab Tank fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Oct 6, 2015 |
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Oct 6, 2015 19:53
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:Speaking of which, we really need to come up with some plausible explanation for why Blane would send a letter like that in the first place. In short, what was Blane planning? To fake his own death then impersonate his own secretary in a desperate attempt to frame his competitor and ruin him? It has to be something like that, no one else has the foggiest clue what Blane looks like and the bishop is of no business threat to Blane. The bishop's only threat is giving away some scheme that he might witness. And maybe he did his best not to witness it by cowering in his room with a lame excuse about reading.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:05
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Stoca Zola posted:To fake his own death then impersonate his own secretary in a desperate attempt to frame his competitor and ruin him? And in the process ruin himself? It doesn't square, as Kettering would say. Either way we have no evidence, just conjecture. Blane was up to something, but I can't figure what. I really wish Kettering had interviewed the drat chief steward. He's the only person who is not suspicious and who knows how many people came on board and what Blane looks like.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:08
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More questions -Who took Hayashi's note to Blane, when exactly, and did they see him? How did Rocksavage know about Hayashi's dodgy deal on the side?
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Oct 6, 2015 20:11
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There is an object that appears in the photos several times. Looks like this: What is this? A candlestick holder? A paperweight? There is one on the dresser in Blane's cabin, one on his desk, and one on the small table in Stodart's cabin.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:24
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It might be useful to google what the hell various crap in Blane's inventory is, since the book is from 1936 after all.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:32
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Ahh yeah I did zoom in and look at that, it does seem like a candlestick holder to me. Or maybe the thing you use to snuff a candle? A tiny cup of sand to put out a cigarette? Those lamps on the tables look like long candles with a metal shade that rests on the top of the candle and which goes down as the level drops, I had an idea that they snuffed the candle out when they got to the bottom somehow, I have one like it but I've never used it since I don't want to burn my house down. The one in the bathroom is a fat pillar candle though. I wonder how much of this old weird looking stuff would have been totally obvious to someone contemporary with the original publishing. Like I think maybe that's a shoehorn in the lid of Blane's case, but I can't even guess what would have gone in the gap where something is missing, or what the loop is to the right. I was thinking maybe the pouch at the top would have been for a straight razor but he has a safety razor on his shelf in the bathroom.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:37
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It occurs to me - did anyone other than the bishop actually say that they saw two men boarding the ship when Blane came aboard? If Blane visited him early on, it might have been to tell him how to cover up that Blane and Stodart are the same person - he could well have asked the chief steward for help unloading "his companion's" suitcases from the tender, occupied the twin stateroom on his own, hastened to tell the bishop that if anyone asked, he was to tell him that two people were aboard, then used fake blood to make it look like Blane had been killed. Or, alternatively, he could have killed whoever was with him after visiting the bishop and simply asked him to identify him as Stodart from then on.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:38
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SelenicMartian posted:It might be useful to google what the hell various crap in Blane's inventory is, since the book is from 1936 after all. Oh, yeah, I already did all of that for the things I didn't recognize. Nothing stuck out, but I might as well list all the stuff I found that isn't just ordinary crap like sweatshirts and socks and stuff: Shantung: A kind of silk. Blane had a jacket made of it. Coconut oil: ... it's coconut oil. It's in the bag with his beach stuff, so it's probably used as tanning lotion. Witch-hazel: Medical preparation used to soothe irritated skin, rashes, and swelling. Probably sunburn treatment. Nash's Magazine: also known as Pall Mall Magazine. British illustrated magazine containing full-color illustrations, short stories, poetry etc. Went out of business in 1937. Balkan Sobranie: Tobacco company. Still in business! Gum tragacanth: Briefly discussed earlier. It's an emulsifier. No clue why anyone would have this. Can be used to polish leather, but is not in his shoe bag. Apparently you can make denture fixative with it. India rubbers: These are just plain old erasers. Phensic: Analgesic, made by mixing aspirin with caffeine. Foolscap: The standard size of letter paper in Britain at the time. Milton: As far as I can tell, this is a brand of sterilizing fluid. e: Oh no. Milton is indeed sterilizing fluid (sodium hypochlorite). Particularly, it's denture cleaner. So... Blane has a cabin full of denture stuff, and "Stodart" wears dentures. e2: Addendum: the "plate brush" in Blane's inventory is most likely a brush for cleaning... dentures. Hyper Crab Tank fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Oct 6, 2015 |
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Oct 6, 2015 20:41
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Milton would act as a bleach come to think of it, but it stinks so you couldn't stealthily bleach a stain with it. That weird brush is listed as a plate brush, ie dentures. So the evidence just piles up that Blane is fine and Stodart is either fake or dead. I still think we're on the right track, but whatever he was hoping to achieve failed. His company still tanked, his faked death was not believed, his framed murder won't stick on anyone. No one said he was a perfect super villain I guess. Stoca Zola fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Oct 6, 2015 |
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Oct 6, 2015 20:44
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Okay, so between the gum tragacanth, bleach/denture cleaner, and possible denture plate brush, Blane sure has a lot of (unpacked) items for dealing with dentures. And, of course, Stodart wears dentures. What are the odds of this being a genuine coincidence, if everything else we've been told is true? This seems to lend weight to the theory that the "Nicholas Stodart" we've been talking to is actually Bolitho Blane. Again, as many have pointed out, including Nidoking just now, we don't actually have any clear evidence that two people boarded the yacht in the first place. The captain didn't actually see them board, and neither did Rocksavage. Both were occupied in the bridge at the time. None of the other guests saw them arrive. No one saw Blane at all, except the bishop, who we know to be untrustworthy on account of the blackmail which may still be hanging over his head. Everyone else interacted with "Stodart" only. It wouldn't be too hard for Blane/Stodart to write the stock numbers in a different way. If this is the theory we're going with, two glaring questions remain: 1. Is there any direct evidence that this is what happened? and more importantly 2. Why the hell would Blane do this? e: Also, none of our present clues were derived from photos. I know this is a bit of a meta-gaming thing, but the authors/OP wouldn't have pointed them out if there was no reason for it. Hyper Crab Tank fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Oct 6, 2015 |
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Oct 6, 2015 20:55
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We know even less about Blane than we do about Slick Daniels the conman, maybe The real Blane has always been a con man, has embezzled all he can from Argus, and is trying to escape to a new identity while offloading argus to someone else? Maybe the company is so gutted that it wasn't even worth buying out and tanking the shares was the only way to sell it at all? It still feels like we are missing 90% of the story especially now that everyone else's loose ends are all tied up. Edit: the well travelled case and the bulging cushions, the denture brush are all in photos. I wasn't 100% on the denture brush until I googled what 30s toothbrushes were like and perhaps false teeth were more common then, by itself the brush isn't necessarily suspicious. Stoca Zola fucked around with this message at 21:06 on Oct 6, 2015 |
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Oct 6, 2015 21:03
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I do like the switcharoo theory - Stodart wearing dentures and denture glue being found in Blane's possessions has detective novelist's clue written all over it. But, in addition to no obvious motive for faking his own death beyond "well my company is struggling so it'll be easier to become a penniless unknown in the middle of the great depression rather than remain a world famous respected businessman who had to accept a merger", did we ever explain the moving stock note? Unless I'm missing something, Stodart was up deck with the other passengers the whole time between his giving the prices to the Steward to slip under Blane's door and the Steward letting himself into Blane's room an hour later and finding the suicide note. The Steward didn't find the price list on the table until later, after he'd brought Stodart down to the room, so I guess Stodart could have planted it then, but then why wasn't it in the doorway in the first place? That's not something you could miss. Mr. Hayashi and Count Luigi are considered to have alibis, but only because they didn't have time to kill a guy, lug him out the window and scrub the floor - both had plenty of time to slip out and tweeze a note from under the door, thereby making Stodart's alibi ironclad. Would an alliance with The Inscrutable Menace explain Blane faking his death?
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Oct 6, 2015 21:07
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Hayashi's letter, presumably to his accomplice at Totomi Soap, doesn't mention Blane at all. Rather, Hayashi seems set on accepting Rocksavage's bribe and giving the contract to him. On the logic previously established - no merger means Hayashi is guaranteed to get his bribe - means he had reason to cooperate with Blane, at least. That's still a very tight window in which to get the job done. I'm still curious about this letter Blane sent to Hayashi in New York, though... Could the lounge steward be lying? Maybe Blane/Stodart discreetly told him to just throw the note away or something? Either way... we still don't know what Blane stood to gain from this.
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Oct 6, 2015 21:23
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Disregarding motive for a moment, there's a pretty strong case that the man now posing as Stodart is the man who was previously known as Blane. The original Stodart is either dead or disappeared. Going with that assumption, what does that make our timetable? Blane-as-Stodart was in the lounge the entire time. His only access to the room was prior to his coming up, and at the moment when it was searched. Per Rocksavage: quote:He took down some of the prices in his note book, tore the leaf out and, as he had not finished his drink, asked the lounge steward to take the list down to Blane's cabin. quote:On arriving there I found Stodart standing in the drawing room looking very pale and shaken. He said to me, "Mr. Rocksavage, I'm afraid I've got bad news for you." Then he handed me this note. quote:After I had read that letter I've just given you, Stodart handed me a slip of paper which, he said, the cabin steward had found found on Blane's table. I saw at once that it was the page that Stodart had torn out of his pocket book after he had taken down the quotations of the closing prices on the New York stock market from the notice board in the lounge and which he had sent down to Blane earlier on. Per Ringbottom (the steward): quote:... I just unlocked the door with my master key and went straight into the room. quote:We went down to the late lamented's cabin together and had a quick look around. He wasn't in the suite and the drawing room window was open. Mr. Stodart told me that he was afraid the poor gentleman had chucked himself overboard, then I spotted a bit of paper on the writing table and gave it to Mr. Stodart saying, "What's this here?" So all the evidence from Blane's room passes through Stodart's hands. The only thing that required someone to be in the room at all during the period is taking care of the note slipped under the door (assuming that happened). But there is a good chance that the note slipped under the door is not the same one given to Rocksavage.
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Oct 6, 2015 21:31
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A few problems with that, if you compare the descriptions of the various notes as given by Ringbottom and Cane. Ringbottom says he found a "note", which be brought up to Stodart, who then "tore it open". If the note he found was the note that was slipped under the door, there is no way that can be said to have been "torn open" in any meaningful fashion. If the note he found was elsewhere in the room, it doesn't explain why he missed the note on the floor. Cane also describes the note he's given to take down to the cabin as having stock numbers on it. Still, it may be that Ringbottom just overlooked it going into the cabin, and only found it later - on the floor. All Stodart would have to do then is lie about where Ringbottom found it. But that doesn't explain why Ringbottom describes it as having been found on the writing table in interview with Kettering.
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Oct 6, 2015 21:42
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Kangra posted:So all the evidence from Blane's room passes through Stodart's hands. Hyper Crab Tank posted:A few problems with that, if you compare the descriptions of the various notes as given by Ringbottom and Cane. I think the "tore open" note is the one which they've taken as a suicide note, written on Surrey paper not ship paper.
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Oct 6, 2015 22:01
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Right; point is, Ringbottom had to see that one first. So, where was it? Perhaps if it was sitting on the dresser, conveniently at eye height, it might explain why he ignored whatever was on the floor. Then all Blanedart had to do was go in the cabin ahead of him and relocate the note?
Hyper Crab Tank fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Oct 6, 2015 |
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Oct 6, 2015 22:06
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Blanedart entered the room with Ringbottom, and given Ringbottom's statement he noticed the window being open before the note. Blanedart could have put the note on the table. I didn't mean to suggest that the Cane had taken down the Surrey-paper note (which was probably 'torn open' in the sense that it was unfolded*), and his statement at the very least suggests that the paper he took down was from the notebook. The point I'm thinking of is that the 'Game is up' part could have been on an entirely different note, since the one in evidence came from Stodart, not Ringbottom. Wild speculation is that the note taken down was instructions for Stodart in the room (going with the theory that Stodart is still alive, and merely jumped out the window to be picked up by prearranged rescue boat). We don't have any proof that whoever was in the room, if anyone was in the room, actually wrote any of the notes in evidence. If we can somehow account for the note slipped under the door, the room could have been empty. But it might not have been if it's a case of faked death. e: Thought of something that goes to motive: if Blane had outed Slick before, he may well have expected Posodini had been brought there to kill him. My favored theory on motive is that he did want to make a deal, but faking his death was a backup plan when he realized they may have meant to do him in. Could even have been hatched in New York, once he realized who was on the ship. *Selenic Martian, can you confirm that the fold marks on this note are as published, and not some artifact of the book packaging? Also, is there any way to see what's at the back of that paper? Kangra fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Oct 6, 2015 |
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Oct 6, 2015 22:22
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Kangra posted:*Selenic Martian, can you confirm that the fold marks on this note are as published, and not some artifact of the book packaging? Also, is there any way to see what's at the back of that paper? Hum, good point. It should say "URGENT - Nicholas Stodart, Esq." on the back. If it doesn't, then that contradicts (:jenks:) Ringbottom's testimony. Unless it was in an envelope or something?
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Oct 6, 2015 22:26
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I just went back to check, and I found what I was expecting - remember when the bishop fainted as Stodart walked in the room? I think we sort of assumed (given the working theory at the time) that he fainted because he'd seen Stodart, but take a look at the last question he was asked and hadn't yet answered - had he had any contact with Blane on the ship? Well, we now know the answer to that question - yes - and his faint was probably a feint to avoid having to answer the question, unless he was legitimately that afraid to answer specifically in front of Stodart, or that surprised to see Stodart enter the room just as that question was asked. I suspect one of the first two possibilities, and the diversion almost worked, since Kettering forgot to bring the topic up again until this final round of questioning. If Stodart is Blane, then the reason is pretty obvious, but if not, then I have to assume that either Stodart didn't want anyone to know that Blane had spoken to the bishop, or that Blane didn't want Stodart to know. Especially given that Kettering already knew the two were "friends", I have to wonder why that would be.
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Oct 7, 2015 03:46
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Kangra posted:*Selenic Martian, can you confirm that the fold marks on this note are as published, and not some artifact of the book packaging? Also, is there any way to see what's at the back of that paper?
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Oct 7, 2015 05:38
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I've gone back looking at the statements of the early timeline, from 6:55 to 7:30 looking for clues. I had a big theory on the switcheroo being a big pre-planned plot and I was looking for evidence to back it up. I found plenty of evidence, including a mention by Rocksavage that Blane and Stodart were expected to take a seaplane to get to the yacht in NYC; I thought this might have been what put Blane off and forced them to wait until Miami, which delayed things and made Argus Suds drop too low for any deal to happen. The evidence that I found pointed me to a completely different scenario than what I was expecting. I'll start from the letter Blane wrote to Hayashi while Hayashi was still in NYC. This was well before Argus Suds's stock dropped dangerously low. Hayashi never came clean as to its contents, instead making a fuss about the other letter, which he knew would be found. I believe this was a smokescreen to distract Kettering from the original letter, and a convenient alibi for that later time. We do have Hayashi's reply via postcard, which he wrote as soon as he knew Blane was coming aboard. It reads: Dear Mr Blane Needless to say I was very shocked to receive your letter while I was in New York. You have certainly overlooked some considerations which are from your point of view extremely important. And quite apart from my own interests in the matter I consider it highly desirable that you should know the consequences to you of the action you contemplate before confirming with Mr. Rocksavage. I shall be in my room until eight o'clock, but would prefer to discuss the matter in your room. Please, therefore, let me know at what time I may visit you. Yours Truly, Inosuke Hayashi. To me the first bolded part seems like a desperate attempt to get Blane interested in a meeting, same with the second. The third bolded point gives us a fact. Blane has told Hayashi that he intends to deal with Rocksavage. The final bold point indicates that Hayashi wants to get Blane alone. My conjecture is he plans to kill him since he will lose a lot of money resulting from a Blane/Rocksavage deal. Hayashi has been stewing for the trip from NYC to Miami, he may have been just as desperate as Blane by the time they arrived. The content of the letter from Blane may have been too incriminating which is why he has kept it hidden. Hayashi comes below deck at 7:10 with the postcard to deliver to Blane to try and arrange a meeting at a later time, to get him alone. This tees up precisely with the time that Blane is in the Bishop's room, threatening him to play nice. Hayashi goes to Blane's room, where original Stodart is alone. Hayashi cannot let the opportunity pass, and kills original Stodart, thinking it is Blane. However, real Blane returns to his room in time to catch Hayashi in the act or perhaps too late to help Stodart. He too cannot pass up this opportunity and knows he now has Hayashi over a barrel. Hayashi might be able to take out an unprepared Stodart but Blane physically towers over him and Hayashi knows he is beaten, he has no choice but to comply with anything Blane asks. Between them they come up with a scheme. Blane writes his own suicide note, only he has to use his own Surrey paper as the ship is out of paper, and determines to fake his own death to tank Argus Suds's stock. This will give Rocksavage the chance to buy up Argus and perhaps put him in a good mood for a deal with Hayashi; the idea is that Blane blackmails Hayashi over the murder so that he gets a cut of Hayashi's profits from the deal. We already know that Blane is the blackmailing type and Argus's stock has fallen so low he could not have got a good deal. It's better to discard the Blane persona and start anew. Hayashi's note is kept as leverage. To remove all evidence of real Stodart, they toss him and his luggage overboard. I am guessing real Stodart's clothes would not have fitted Blane and this may have given them away, so some of Blane's gear is moved to Stodart's room so he can operate out of there. Having two men at the crime scene helps to explain how they had time to clean it up and how it was easier to get a body out of the window. Blane heads upstairs at half past seven to start his new life as Nicholas Stodart using Stodart's pocketbook to write the share prices on. As I was studying it I noticed the capital S in the company names does not match the S in Stodart's initials at the bottom. It's a bit more like a neat version of Blane's writing, similarly the loops on the R's are a lot like the D in the Blane suicide note. He took care to write the A and the D differently but I think the S and the R might give him away. Meanwhile Hayashi is left below to come up with an alibi in his room. He could easily get from Blane's cabin down the left hand corridor then up the right without the steward or carpenter seeing him, then make a fuss about paper to establish his alibi at this later point. There is still evidence lacking for this scenario but I think it hangs together more nicely than any scenario where Blane has planned to do a swap for unknown reasons. Hayashi can't give Blane away and neither can the Bishop. Of all the interviewees Hayashi did the best "no comment" and "please talk to my lawyers" job vs Kettering, so it seems like he may have really had something to hide. He doesn't really have an alibi in the early timeline so it makes sense that he is working with fake Stodart to make sure the time of the crime is shifted forwards to a more favourable time. I feel like if Blane had got on the ship in NYC, Argus Suds would not yet have gone below 40 and he would still have had a chance to make that deal with Rocksavage. Maybe it was original Stodart's fault that they missed the seaplane, and Blane may not have been sorry to see him go. I wonder if Blane was involved in Redmeyer Syndicate, the first company on the list? Those prices are rising so it could be that Blane already has another iron in the fire to move on to after Argus is gone. Things I would like to know: What is in those cushions What is the real reason they missed the NYC to Miami leg of the trip. This delay did the most damage to Blane!
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Oct 7, 2015 12:35
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Interesting hypothesis. To me, the biggest problem with it is what it doesn't explain: Specifically, it doesn't explain why Blane would write a letter to the bishop while in New York urging him to keep his mouth shut about weird stuff that was going to happen on the yacht. This implies Blane went into the whole trip with a plan he wanted to keep concealed from everyone else. Furthermore, the fact that the only felt a need to blackmail the one person who can positively identify him by appearance suggests his plan hinged on that; whatever was going to happen would look suspicious to someone who knew Blane from before, so he went to the effort and risk of intimidating a man into silence to avoid having it give up the game. If Blane went to the trip purely with the intention of making a deal with Rocksavage, there would be no need to coerce the bishop ahead of time like this. Hayashi is certainly one of the more suspicious characters left on the boat, though. His involvement in a bribery attempt might be enough of a reason for him to clam up and call in the lawyers, though. He has enough reason to want to keep shut without having murdered anyone. It's quite vexing that we don't know what's in the letter from Blane to Hayashi, and why it "shocked" Hayashi so much to receive it. Actually, one thing I never understood: We're repeatedly told that if Argus Suds and Rocksavage Conglomerates merge, then Hayashi is out of a bribe, but if Blane is taken out and Rocksavage buys him out, then he gets his bribe. But why is this, really? It sounds to me like a merged company would be just as interested in paying him off to keep Totomi off their backs. That problem doesn't go away whether they merge or not, and either way Rocksavage ends up holding large stakes in Argus Suds.
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Oct 7, 2015 12:53
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As far as I understand the Hayashi deal, he has to import soap from someone no matter what. Rocksavage or Blane would be giving Hayashi money for permission to sell soaps to Japan, and Hayashi was going to take a cut of this total for himself. While there is competition between Rocksavage and Blane, since both want the ability to expand into this market and then receive future profits from future sales, they would possibly be outbidding each other for this right. The share price for whoever obtained the Japan deal would go up, as it would indicate growth in the company. Once it is a monopoly Hayashi loses any benefit from that competition and he simply has to accept whatever the monopoly offers. He will get money but it will be for a lower amount. It could be that Blane simply could not afford to even make an offer to Hayashi and the letter may have said, I cannot afford your import thing at this time, perhaps we can talk again after I have merged Argus with Rocksavage. Edit: oh I see what you're saying, so why would Hayashi kill a guy? I don't know, it doesn't help him in the end does it? In the same way that Blane tanking his stocks doesn't help him. The whys just don't hang together. The only person who has 100% benefitted from all of this is Rocksavage. I know the Bishop thing doesn't hold up so well right now. We don't know that any of the original threats were to do with Blane's identity though, perhaps he wanted a coerced ally if he needed to hide in someone else's cabin to avoid being gunned down by hired mobsters and it only turned into the identity thing later? My original idea was that Blane was always a conman, and it was always going to be a switcheroo between him and Stodart. Someone was always planned to go out the window and swim ashore. When they found that there was a seaplane trip to the yacht in NYC (as explained by Rocksavage) they realised this might be too dangerous; the range of a little tender boat is much smaller than that of a seaplane so who knows how far from shore the Golden Gull would be and whether it would be even possible for the man overboard to survive. So they delayed until Miami, for warmer waters and a better chance of being able to swim ashore or hire a boat. But the delay threw a spanner into their original plan and Argus went down the toilet, so all that was left was to try and frame Rocksavage for murder; or fake the suicide; or whatever the switcheroo plan was. Before they had the whole of the NYC to Miami trip where the yacht would be following the coast and survival was likely, but from Miami to Nassau they no longer had this chance and had to fake the death right away. I had the idea that the blood on the curtain was from original Stodart having second thoughts and being punched in the kisser by Blane (edited to add: while he was half out the window). In the scuffle one of the pens is knocked to the floor, stepped on, and ink goes on the carpet (there is a pen missing from the holder on the desk). The ink stain is noticed and cleaned up by Blane, but the blood stain is missed. This doesn't explain the drag marks though and the ultimate purpose of the switcheroo is still baffling. This scenario still has original Stodart and all his gear going out the window, it was just the lack of knowledge of who delivered Hayashi's postcard, and the timing of it, that made me think something further had gone on. A lot of Blane's early activity such as sending the steward away could have been to hide the appearance of original Stodart, and the original "We can't make it" message to Rocksavage did seem not a case of panic and changing of minds like "Stodart" described it so I was looking at reasons why that would have been an intentional delay. SelenicMartian how long do we have to puzzle through the clues until you end our agony and tell us who done it (and what did they done)? Stoca Zola fucked around with this message at 14:40 on Oct 7, 2015 |
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Oct 7, 2015 13:20
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But now Rocksavage essentially has the monopoly anyway, since he bought up all or most of the now cheap shares in Argus Suds. I don't see how this has improved Hayashi's situation any. Hayashi would have been better served with Blane alive, but not cooperating with Rocksavage. Killing him just cements Rocksavage's grip of the soap industry, worsening Hayashi's chances of negotiating a good bribe by playing the two against each other, as you say. Ugh, so let's see, what do we know or strongly suspect: - The man currently calling himself Nicholas Stodart is actually Bolitho Blane. Evidence in favor: Stodart wears dentures, Blane had a lot of denture-related hygiene articles in his cabin whileas Stodart has none in his. The bishop's reluctance to talk implies Blane is still alive and holding the blackmail over him, and the bishop knows it. Evidence against: The bishop identifies the man in the lounge as Stodart and says he never saw Blane after the first visit to his cabin, but this is countered by the bishop being untrustworthy on account of blackmail. - Bolitho Blane was posing as Nicholas Stodart ever since he appeared in the lounge at 7:30. Evidence in favor: Most consistent with testimony. Several guests (all except the bishop and Lady Welter) saw the man they know as Stodart in the lounge and then again at breakfast the following day and did not remark upon them being different persons. Evidence against: See previous point; the bishop identifies this man as Stodart, not Blane. - Only the bishop knows what Bolitho Blane looks like. Evidence in favor: Pretty much everyone's testimony. Police report indicates the man is a recluse and there are no photos of him. - Bolitho Blane tried to intimidate the bishop into collaboration or silence regarding some "strange events" Blane knew was going to take place on the yacht, using the bishop's involvement in a 1917 scandal as leverage. Evidence in favor: Letter sent to bishop from New York hotel, bishop's own testimony regarding Blane's visit to his cabin. - The luggage in Stodart's cabin likely belongs to Bolitho Blane. Evidence in favor: The stickers indicate a suitcase, and thus an owner, much more well traveled than Stodart's testimony makes him out to be. Evidence against: None directly, but Blane would have to have moved some of his luggage into that cabin unseen at some point. - Inosuke Hayashi is doing dirty business on the side with Totomi Soap, and was negotiating a bribe from Rocksavage. Evidence in favor: Testimony from Rocksavage, letter recovered from Hayashi's outgoing mail. - Blane wrote a letter, contents unknown, to Hayashi while staying in New York. Evidence in favor: Hayashi's postcard mentions it. Unclear points: - Someone might have committed suicide. Evidence in favor: Suicide note. Missing person. Evidence against: Suicide note was written by a man we know is still alive, so it is fake. The lack of a dead body means a death cannot be conclusively proven. - Someone might have been murdered. Evidence in favor: Bloodstains, missing person. Evidence against: The bloodstains look planted. The lack of a dead body means a death cannot be conclusively proven. - There may have been a man named Nicholas Stodart on the ship. Evidence in favor: Numerous vague allusions to a second man boarding the yacht at 6:55. Lady Welter saw two men going up the gangway when the bishop pointed them out to her. Evidence against: The identity of the second man is not established. Lady Welter knew neither by sight. The only other person who would've seen both of them up close at the time - the chief steward - has frustratingly enough not been interviewed. - Nicholas Stodart might not exist at all. Evidence in favor: There are no police records of the man. His luggage is inconsistent with his background. The only information we have on his backstory comes from Blane posing as Stodart, who is not trustworthy. Evidence against: Lady Welter saw two people coming into the ship. The chief steward could presumably corroborate, though the idiot Kettering hasn't interviewed him. The (untrustworthy) Bishop implies they are different people. Luggage could have been moved from Blane's cabin. - If a real Nicholas Stodart exists, he might be dead and dumped into the ocean. Evidence in favor: Bloodstains, missing person. If there has been a murder committed, then the victim would have to be Nicholas Stodart - everyone else is accounted for. Evidence against: None, but the evidence in favor is very weak and circumstantial. Murder has not been conclusively proven. - If a real Nicholas Stodart exists, he might be hiding on the ship. Evidence in favor: Missing person. Plenty of hiding spaces, e.g. the empty cabin or stewardess's room. Evidence against: Unclear that the police wouldn't have found a man hiding on the ship by now (although Kettering is blind as a bat). It's been days; the man has to eat. Unclear when Stodart could've made it to a hiding place unseen. I think we can pretty safely rule out Ferri Rocksavage, Pamela Jocelyn, Slick Daniels and Reginald Jocelyn having anything to do with the case. They seem all to have been too occupied with their romantic shenanigans and several of them only have incidental motives in the first place. I feel like something is missing or overlooked. What about that maid that took the wrong way around to get to Ms. Rocksavage's cabin? Hyper Crab Tank fucked around with this message at 15:04 on Oct 7, 2015 |
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Oct 7, 2015 14:36
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drat you are good at posting exactly at the same time as I'm editing a post!
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Oct 7, 2015 14:40
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There were other photos besides the interiors, i.e. the people flashed by Neame. I thought to post them in high res, but it's not much of an improvement.Stoca Zola posted:SelenicMartian how long do we have to puzzle through the clues until you end our agony and tell us who done it (and what did they done)? Beyond the seal there's a memo to Kettering to arrest a specific person, an explanation of what made them suspicious, and a confession. All I need is the who and why them, and I'll get the finale ready in a bit over 24 hrs.
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Oct 7, 2015 15:00
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The people who weren't physically with someone else between 6:55 and 7:30 Bishop, was in room from 6:55ish to 8:00, could possibly have ducked out and taken the long way around, avoiding the carpenter. Saying he heard the carpenter does in no way count as an alibi since anyone would have heard that racket from anywhere. Hayashi, was in room after 7:10, and was definitely back at 7:50 due to the request for paper. Could possibly have gone the long way around and avoided being spotted by carpenter. No one else has claimed responsibility for delivering his postcard to Blane's room so I believe he delivered it himself. It would be nice to know if he poked it under the door or if he knocked and handed it over to "Stodart" or "Blane". Then of course "Stodart" was alone with "Blane" until "Blane" departed, either voluntarily or involuntarily. Did I miss anyone? The Bishop of Bude's real name is Stapleton Thomas, and Bude is in Cornwall (so another Cornwall connection). OK Hyper Crab Tank posted:I feel like something is missing or overlooked. What about that maid that took the wrong way around to get to Ms. Rocksavage's cabin? I went looking for this, and I am guessing she just came up from the lower deck, passed the carpenter, and off to Ferri's room. It isn't really the wrong way since that end where the carpenter is, is where the stairs to the lower deck are, she couldn't have gone the short way unless she was lounging around in the lounge which doesn't seem fitting for a maid. Stoca Zola fucked around with this message at 15:17 on Oct 7, 2015 |
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Oct 7, 2015 15:13
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Stoca Zola posted:I went looking for this, and I am guessing she just came up from the lower deck, passed the carpenter, and off to Ferri's room. It isn't really the wrong way since that end where the carpenter is, is where the stairs to the lower deck are, she couldn't have gone the short way unless she was lounging around in the lounge which doesn't seem fitting for a maid. Ringbottom explicitly testifies that she went in the direction of Blane's cabin, which is the wrong way coming up from the stairs. I'm trying to assemble a timeline of where everyone was at different times. Give me a couple minutes...
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Oct 7, 2015 15:21
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WOAH WOAH WOAH WAITHyper Crab Tank posted:- There may have been a man named Nicholas Stodart on the ship. At 6:55 two men walk up the gangplank, one of them identified by the Bishop as "Blane." At 7:10 Hayashi delivers a note to Blane on a postcard, because he couldn't get any notepaper from the cabin steward. The cabin steward said he wasn't able to get any notepaper when Hayashi had rang for paper for his 7:10 note because the chief steward had been ashore at Miami and only just come aboard. No one commented on a separate vessel delivering the chief steward or the chief steward coming aboard with Blane and Stodart. So only two people were known to board right before 7 and one was the chief steward. EDIT: frustratingly we have no way of knowing if this is intended as a major clue or if it was just an oversight because this book is old and British and servants didn't count as people then the holy poopacy fucked around with this message at 15:38 on Oct 7, 2015 |
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Oct 7, 2015 15:34
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Well spotted apart from Ringbottom's testimony: Just before the ship got under way the chief steward called for me and said, "Ringbottom the two new ones that are allotted to suite C. have just come aboard. Get along at once and settle them in." Is Ringbottom a liar? Ringbottom also saw the maid but I really don't see how, the door would be in the way. Kettering should go and stand in Ringbottom's pantry himself and see what he can see (nothing, because he's blind). Why even trust witness testimony for something you could easily check yourself? According to Google, Ringbottom isn't even a real name.  There was a c64 game of this, wow! Stoca Zola fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Oct 7, 2015 |
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Oct 7, 2015 15:48
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A problem with that: Ringbottom had earlier testified that:quote:Just before the ship got under way the chief steward called for me and said, "Ringbottom the two new ones that are allotted to suite C. have just come aboard. Get along at once and settle them in." The chief steward claims to be aware of "two new ones" who have come aboard. If that was the chief steward boarding at the same time as Blane, we're still short one person. Here is the promised timeline, as best as I can compile it, and based on the assumption that Blane is posing as Stodart:  e: Amended the timeline slightly; a few times were off by five minutes or so. I can't account for his whereabouts after visiting the bishop. Hayashi claims to have been in his cabin all along, though note that there is nothing directly corroborating that before around 7:50. While assembling my timeline, I found another instance of Hayashi appearing to be lying. In his first interview with Kettering, Hayashi claims the following: quote:A fortnight ago, however, Mr. Rocksavage cabled me that negotiations could go no further until after a conference he proposed to hold on this date. He suggested that I should join the party and said that, if I did so, he had every reason to believe that the affair might be concluded to the satisfaction of all concerned. I sailed from San Francisco to Panama and from there I came overland to join his yacht at Miami. However, the postcard he wrote to Blane claims he was in New York when he received a letter from Blane. When was Hayashi in New York? If it was more than two weeks ago, why did he wait this long to reply to Blane? If it was more recently, why is he lying about his whereabouts? Hyper Crab Tank fucked around with this message at 16:03 on Oct 7, 2015 |
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Oct 7, 2015 15:54
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Stoca Zola posted:Well spotted apart from Ringbottom's testimony: Ringbottom doesn't have to be a liar if the chief steward is. If Rocksavage is in on the plot his chief steward is a good choice of stand-in: the chief steward's duties seem to be supervising other servants instead of dealing with guests face to face, so he wouldn't necessarily be recognizable to them. For that matter, even the chief steward doesn't have to be a liar if "Stodart" is. Chief steward has instructions to meet two passengers at the docks and see to transportation for them, he gets there and finds "Stodart" alone who tells him a story about Blane being overeager and paying his own way to get to the ship early with "Stodart" left behind to take care of both mens' luggage. Chief steward just shrugs and rolls with it.
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Oct 7, 2015 16:07
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Question: Where is the writing room Hayashi was writing the postcard in? People have been referring to it being "up" relative to the cabin deck, so I'm inclined to believe it's on the upper deck. Hayashi claims to have finished writing it around 7:10, when he sent it down to Blane's cabin. However... by 7:10, Ringbottom was already in place in the pantry. He would've been able to see anyone - whether Hayashi or a servant - coming down from upstairs to deliver a note to the cabin. Why didn't he? In general, the timing around 7:10 is really tight. Three things happened around this time: 1. Blane moves from the bishop's cabin to his cabin. 2. Ringbottom knocks on the cabin door offering to unpack their luggage. 3. Hayashi sends a note down to the cabin. In what order did these things happen? Hyper Crab Tank fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Oct 7, 2015 |
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Oct 7, 2015 16:15
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If I was roleplaying as Kettering I would just arrest fake Stodart right now and bully him until he fesses up. No matter what has happened, fake Stodart is in on it. We've got enough evidence to know he's not the real Stodart, right?Hyper Crab Tank posted:Question: Where is the writing room Hayashi was writing the postcard in? People have been referring to it being "up" relative to the cabin deck, so I'm inclined to believe it's on the upper deck. Hayashi claims to have finished writing it around 7:10, when he sent it down to Blane's cabin. However... by 7:10, Ringbottom was already in place in the pantry. He would've been able to see anyone - whether Hayashi or a servant - coming down from upstairs to deliver a note to the cabin. Why didn't he? Maybe he did, but Kettering didn't ask him about anything that happened at that time, and this is why you don't ask leading questions in an investigation. Kettering was too focused on the later timeline and only asked: quote:Now, think carefully, Ringbottom. Did you see any member of the crew, or any other person, come either up or down the companion-way and pass your door, going in the direction of Mr. Blane's cabin between 7.45 and 8.30 last night? I think Ringbottom knocked first, then went back to his post. This would have been fairly soon after they arrived since it's his job to provide this service. Hayashi would have been furiously writing after realising that Blane had arrived. I don't think he could have finished it faster than they could have walked to the cabin. I really don't know how Blane would have known to beeline to the Bishop's cabin, it's not like there were names on doors, and if he was up to something, just sticking his head in every door would have given him away. But the Bishop says he was in and out quick, therefore the Bishop is probably lying due to being untrustworthy due to blackmail. Hayashi might have been refering to any previous correspondence with Blane, things went a lot slower in the 1930s than they do now. It's possible he was lying about his location but if he was travelling from Japan to meet Rocksavage, he would have gone similar to the direction he mentioned to Kettering. Stoca Zola fucked around with this message at 16:28 on Oct 7, 2015 |
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Oct 7, 2015 16:26
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Actually, come to think of it, what is the source of the claim that the chief steward accompanied Blane and Stodart to their cabin? It's... Stodart again. Maybe the second person who came aboard really was the chief steward, and he didn't accompany them to their cabin, and never saw two people at all. All he did was tell Ringbottom that the two had arrived, not that he had seen them down.
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Oct 7, 2015 16:30
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I noticed Hayashi's statement about coming 'overland from Panama'. It's so ludicrous and yet passes without comment so I just chalked it down to Wheatley being bad at geography. That said, I doubt he thought that the route from Panama to Miami passes through New York. One of the important facts of the case that needs to be explained is the drag marks on the carpet. They were either produced by someone moving a body, or faked to indicate same. That would seem to rule out the case of suicide (or would require a suicide faked to look like murder, unlikely given everything else in the case). If a straight-up murder, the question becomes why they weren't covered up when the rest of the room seems mostly in order. Possibly due to some time constraint, or possibly they're indelible. If faked, the question is then why would they be faked. Anyone wondering if the couch might be/have been hiding a body?
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Oct 7, 2015 16:30
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:Question: Where is the writing room Hayashi was writing the postcard in? People have been referring to it being "up" relative to the cabin deck, so I'm inclined to believe it's on the upper deck. Hayashi claims to have finished writing it around 7:10, when he sent it down to Blane's cabin. However... by 7:10, Ringbottom was already in place in the pantry. He would've been able to see anyone - whether Hayashi or a servant - coming down from upstairs to deliver a note to the cabin. Why didn't he? "Stodart" says that Ringbottom came to the cabin right before the ship got under way. The ship sailed at 7:05. The bishop gives surprisingly specific testimony that Blane arrived by 7:08 and was gone by 7:10. Hayashi says he sent the note about 7:10. So assuming the times are accurate, the order of your list is 2, 1, 3.
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Oct 7, 2015 16:47
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According to Kettering you can't see the drag marks under regular indoor lighting, they only showed due to the flash photo, and were more easily visible from the direction of "not standing in the doorway looking in". I thought the overland from Panama statement was ludicrous too, since Hayashi could have just caught a train from San Francisco instead (3000+ miles), but maybe there was no easy route. I don't know my US geography that well. Maybe he is using the word overland wrong and went over some land and then back into the water to get to Miami by a second boat trip. Unlikely, he's Oxford educated, he knows english well enough. There were ships going from San Francisco to Panama back then, so that part at least makes sense and maybe that is a trip Hayashi really has done before. But staying on land from Panama to Miami is over 4000 miles. Oh! This could be the classic error of someone from a small island misinterpreting distances for a larger landmass. I am guessing he is actually lying, and it is Hayashi who is bad at geography. Perhaps it is Hayashi's fault that Blane missed the original NYC rendezvous with the Golden Gull, and like Blane and Stodart, caught a plane to Miami. His just got in earlier.
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Oct 7, 2015 16:48
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