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QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Yesterday, a bill arrived on the floor of North Carolina's General Assembly that would have made it illegal for local municipalities to raise the minimum wage, establish affordable housing mandates, or institute landlord-tenet relations. It also would have blocked any rules against discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. The bill, originally intended to regulate the licensing of counselors, had provisions added to it moments before voting began. Consequently, representatives were preparing to vote when they received word that their previously uncontroversial bill would have, among other things, completely undone the concept of federalism in the state of North Carolina. City Lab reports:

quote:

The News & Observer reports that the changes were added to the bill by state Senator Chad Barefoot and Representative Paul Stam late Monday night. The senate bill is another example of the “gut-and-amend” style of introducing sweeping changes late in session. The bill could reach the governor’s desk as soon as Tuesday afternoon.

The bill as amended would deny local and county governments the authority to raise the minimum wage within their jurisdictions. Under the state’s new “general ordinance-making powers,” city and county governments would lose the ability to regulate any private employment practices—opening the door to conservative discrimination against LGBTQ and Muslim customers and employees.

Local governments would further be restricted from passing any laws or ordinances that would “[r]egulate or control vehicular or pedestrian traffic on a street or highway under the control of the Board of Transportation” and some other rights of way.

One of the biggest usurpations of power in the amendment concerns fair housing. The bill would amend the State Fair Housing Act to prohibit any body except the state government from setting affordable-housing goals, mandates, minimums, or other practices.

An effort to pass a state-level Religious Freedom Restoration Act (such as the Indiana law that garnered widespread criticism earlier this year) for North Carolina failed earlier this year. In Charlotte, a local ordinance that would have added sexual orientation and gender identity to nondiscrimination protected categories also failed by a narrow margin.

This amendment—to a completely unrelated bill regarding licensure standards—would restrict cities such as Charlotte from even considering things like a local nondiscrimination ordinance. Senate Bill 279 would simultaneously secure special rights for conservative and Christian landowners and businessmen.

“These provisions were inserted in the conference report with no prior public notice. They did not appear in any prior version of the bill as it was debated in committee or on the floor of either chamber,” Charlotte Mayor Daniel G. Clodfelter said in a statement addressed to delegates from Mecklenberg County. “These provisions set our community back nearly half a century and will have a lasting negative impact on everyone.”

The amended bill is a bold move. In several passages within the bill, the text lists the purpose of the amendment as “local governments preempted.” That’s an understatement.

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QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Freakazoid_ posted:

Kinda looks like Conan O'Brien, but that doesn't make sense.

The hair suggests that it is Rand Paul.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Update on the Kim Davis-Pope Francis meeting from a few pages ago: Vatican explicitly states that the Pope's meeting is not an endorsement.

quote:

"The brief meeting between Mrs. Kim Davis and Pope Francis at the Apostolic Nunciature in Washington, DC has continued to provoke comments and discussion. In order to contribute to an objective understanding of what transpired I am able to clarify the following points: Pope Francis met with several dozen persons who had been invited by the Nunciature to greet him as he prepared to leave Washington for New York City," said Vatican spokesman the Rev. Federico Lombardi in a statement on the pope's encounter with Davis, who has refused to issue same-sex marriage licenses in her rural Kentucky county.
Story Continued Below

"Such brief greetings occur on all papal visits and are due to the Pope’s characteristic kindness and availability. The only real audience granted by the Pope at the Nunciature was with one of his former students and his family," Lombardi explained. "The Pope did not enter into the details of the situation of Mrs. Davis and his meeting with her should not be considered a form of support of her position in all of its particular and complex aspects."

The whole situation has been really odd from the beginning. The Vatican's initial refusal to confirm or deny the meeting is extremely unusual because the institution is always very straightforward about who it meets with. It suggests that the Vatican genuinely didn't know if Davis had met with the Pope and how she got in the Nunciature. These new details also reveal that Davis's lawyers have been exaggerating how significant the meeting was.

It's probably not a grand conspiracy, but someone severely abused their authority for political gain.

EDIT: Apparently, the Vatican is having difficulty finding who invited Davis to the meeting.

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Oct 2, 2015

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Nintendo Kid posted:

Voting continues until a speaker reaches 50% plus 1 vote. IIRC the threshold will lower if enough people leave the city/the house for extended times.

It's 50% plus one of all present and voting members, but the election's rules can be changed at the Congress's discretion.

The last time a Speaker was elected by plurality the United States was in the worst part of the Great Depression and seemed on the verge of collapse.

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 02:46 on Oct 3, 2015

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Chaffetz is in.

quote:

In a lengthy interview with POLITICO in his Capitol Hill office this weekend, the chairman of the House Oversight Committee predicted that opposition from conservatives will block McCarthy from securing the 218 votes he needs to be elected [as Speaker] on the House floor later this month – and so Chaffetz is pitching himself as an alternative.

“There are very few people who can win the support of our hardcore conservatives and yet be palatable to our more moderate members,” he said. “The question is who can help unite the party and bridge the divide and I hope they see me as the person that will give everyone a fair shake.”

Until now, McCarthy faced only token opposition in Florida Rep. Daniel Webster; Chaffetz, by contrast, is the head of a major committee and a respected figure among the rank-and-file. At the very least, the Utah Republican’s last-minute entry complicates McCarthy’s path and highlights the uneasiness with which the centrist Californian is viewed among the most conservative members of the GOP conference.

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Oct 4, 2015

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Rincewinds posted:

So option 3 is the most plausible one?

"Jet fuel can't melt steel beams" is a phrase used to mock conspiracy theorists. It originates from the film Loose Change, a widely panned film that asserts the U.S. government was behind the September 11th attacks. Though the filmmakers consider the strength of steel to be evidence supporting their allegations, they fail to recognize that jet fuel, while it cannot melt steel beams, does weaken it.

In this context, mlmp08 is implying that anyone who thinks the U.S. government intentionally targeted hospitals is a conspiracy theorist who lacks any wide understanding of the situation. Just as "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" demonstrates a poor understanding of building design, so too does this allegation demonstrate a poor understanding of U.S. foreign policy.

This has been an introduction to Internet slang and popular culture.

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 16:39 on Oct 4, 2015

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Raskolnikov38 posted:

Oh god, please let there be multiple ballots.

The magic number is 218, which means McCarthy can afford to lose 29 votes before a second ballot is required. This puts the Freedom Caucus exactly where they want to be, making them Kingmakers in the larger leadership fight. If Jim Jordan plays his cards right, he might be able to force McCarthy into making serious concessions.

Alternatively, the Freedom Caucus and McCarthy could prove bitter and intransientire so who knows what will happen! I would bet on an establishment victory, but thr again Jim Jordan has never really demonstrated a good understanding of parliamentary procedure.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

And it looks like Boehner is starting to get worried. Elections for Majority Leader and Whip might be geating called off until further notice.

If accurate, it is a sign that the Republican establishment is getting seriously worried about their control over the situation. It's possible that insurgents might upend the vote if given the opportunity.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Fojar38 posted:

What might this mean for the debt ceiling?


When Boehner announced his resignation, it was expected that the debt ceiling would come into play right around Christmas. As it turns out, the deadline will arrive November 5th, less than a week after Boehner leaves office. If there is no coherent leadership in the Majority by that time, it raises serious questions about the House's ability to function. It puts pressure on moderates to use extreme measures to resolve the leadership crisis if it continues.

The real test will be the actual Speaker vote. The more ballots there are, the more inflexible and immobile the House is gong to be.

Also, say goodbye to any grand deals that might have been in the works. That ship has sailed for the foreseeable future.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Fojar38 posted:

I knew about that, I just figured Boehner would force it through in October because he's leaving anyway and doesn't have to worry about backlash from the wingnuts.

Boehner is still likely to get an increase of the debt ceiling before he leaves office. He only needs a handful of moderate Republican votes to make sure it succeeds.The February 2014 debt ceiling increase had only 28 Republicans on board.

It would represent a failure at every level if Boehner left office without securing an increase to the debt limit. I don't think the Republican Party is collapsing (which is really one of the worst things about this situation) but if Boehner failed, it would represent a total neutering of the Republican Party's moderate wing.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Raenir Salazar posted:

Wouldn't Boehner forcing through actual governance legislation come at a cost of enraging and stiffening the resolve of the Wing Nuts? Possibly make moderates vulnerable at primary season?

I see a lot of people assuming Boehner can do anything now that he doesn't care but there's bound to be a cost to the moderate wing and his successor in particular.
While it is possible, there are several parliamentary moves that Boehner can take to clamp down on right-wing dissent. For example, if it looks like he won't get enough "yes" votes, he can try convincing members not to show up. He could also ask members to log themselves as "present" instead of "present and voting" during the roll call. These moves both lower the number of votes needed to raise the ceiling.

EDIT: One vote that Boehner can probably not depend on is McCarthy. In 2014, McCarthy was one of the 28 Republicans who voted to raise the ceiling. If he is concerned about his conservative credentials, he might defect to secure the Freedom Caucus's loyalty.

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Oct 4, 2015

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Mr Interweb posted:

I'm still surprised we're going through this same old song and dance with the debt ceiling again. Won't not raising it cause a loving global economic meltdown on a scale far greater than the 2008 crash? How is this not a loving scandal of the highest order? This is economic terrorism. :psyduck:

As with all things, the debt ceiling is a matter of personal responsibility. How are we ever to stop the expansion of government if we are afraid of one measly debt ceiling? Sure, it might destroy the entire U.S. financial system, but that's just the price we have to pay for "common sense policies." I mean, it probably wouldn't even be that bad. Look at what David Bratt has to say on the matter:

quote:

"There was a spending bill that preceded the debt ceiling increase," said Bart. "My commitment is not to increase spending; to have a spending bill where you don’t increase it. Cantor’s voted for 10 of the last 15 debt ceiling increases. I just don’t buy the idea that you are truly put in the position of backing the debt ceilng increase the last minute, that you had no choice."

Remember, global financial collapse doesn't kill people, Planned Parenthood kills people.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Fried Chicken posted:

Florida Senate Candidate Augustus Sol Invictus sacrificed a goat and drank its blood

The whole "walking from Florida to the Mojave desert" bit is kinda cool though. I always wish I had the time/money to do something like that or the Appalachian trail. And if "walking the Appalachian trail" is really a euphemism for seeing my Brazilian supermodel mistress, even better

I am shocked that a man named after the Roman sun god would engage in bizarre and horrific pagan rituals. How will anyone in Florida take the Libertarian Party seriously now?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Hollismason posted:

Is there anyway that the Democrats can mess with the Republicans over the Speaker vote on the 29th. This is mainly a question for Joementum

Theoretically, yes, but it would play poorly with the Democratic base and undermine current attempts by the Freedom Caucus to disrupt the process.

Speaking of which, Boehner officially delayed elections for Majority Leader and Whip hours after Scalise's team announced that it had locked enough votes to secure the Majority Leader position. The delay is a major blow to Scalise and increases the likelihood of a right-wing challenge. It also adds an interesting dynamic for future leadership races:

quote:

Boehner's move to delay the elections also raises another huge issue for Republicans. The nation will reach its debt limit on Nov. 5 -- around the same time the party will chose its new leader and whip. If Boehner attempts to hold a debt ceiling vote before the speaker election, it could be a major problem for McCarthy. If it occurs afterward, then one of McCarthy's first fights as speaker is to over the contentious borrowing cap.

Also, Chaffetz is being mum with his supporters but claims that at least 50 Republicans will not support McCarthy for Speaker. Normally, I would dismiss this as posturing, but Chaffetz is acting really confident for a man that everyone considers to be doomed.

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 00:56 on Oct 6, 2015

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

And while I am here, let's talk about another struggle for power: The Catholic Church's Synod of the Family. The Synod had its first full day of discussions and there's rumors swirling about an imminent showdown over divorce and gay marriage in the Church. Earlier today, the Vatican's Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith fired one of its prominent aides after he revealed he was homosexual. Given Francis's decision to uninvite several conservative opponents and stack the Synod's membership in his favor, there's signs that members of Benedict's old clique might start lashing out.

I wouldn't expect Francis to mandate gay abortions for everyone, but the consensus is that he's trying to drive the Church as far and fast as he can before his opponents can mobilize.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Trabisnikof posted:

I wonder if any SC congress critters opposed Sandy funding....

They did!

Specifically, in the House:

Wilson, Joe SC 2nd
Duncan, Jeff SC 3rd
Gowdy, Trey SC 4th
Mulvaney, Mick SC 5th

And then both Graham and Scott voted against it in the Senate.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Out of the bowels of Twitter, a drunk Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) endorses American Enterprise Institute President Arthur Brooks for House Speaker.

quote:

Who’s the best communicator in our movement? He/she might not be in Congress today. So what? Why wld we not pick that person –for “SPEAKER”?

quote:

I'm not saying @arthurbrooks is definitely the best communicator in America; I'm just saying: If you know of a better one…Tell me. I’ll wait

quote:

Just purchased the domain: http://draftarthurbrooks.com #Momentum

You can also scroll through his feed to see various platitudes about what the next Speaker must be. Among them is the declaration that the "next speaker needs to have the ideas of Jack Kemp, work ethic of Mike Rowe, resolve of Margaret Thatcher, & wit of Larry the Cable Guy"

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Fiorina: "I'm distinctly horrifying to liberals."

quote:

Carly Fiorina says that she thinks she is "distinctly horrifying to liberals" because of the prospect that she could beat Hillary Clinton in a general election, hours after a poll was released showing her besting the Democratic front-runner in a hypothetical general election matchup in Iowa.

During an interview with Fox News' Megyn Kelly on her Monday night show, Fiorina responded after Kelly read part of a New York Times story from last week in which one woman remarked of the former Hewlett-Packard executive that, "It’s so weird — she looks like one of us, but she’s not."

"Look, we know that most of the media is very liberal. We know that liberal women have trouble accepting that there are many, many women who don't agree with them," Fiorina declared. "And in fact, it's liberal women, unfortunately, who believe that unless you follow their orthodoxy -- [MSNBC's] Rachel Maddow is one, but Hillary Clinton is one, as well."

She then removed her face, revealing swirling darkness beneath.

"Behold thy visage and despair, for with me comes layoffs and madness." She told reporters, gesturing toward her CARLY SuperPAC, which had taken human form and was devouring campaign funds. "I bring with me a new age of fiscal conservatism, one not tempered by human compassion or empathy."

At press time, Fiorina had reportedly unleashed a swarm of unpaid staffers onto the reporters.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Relentlessboredomm posted:

Related question. Can anyone relay to me a vision for what Afghanistan is supposed to look like when we finally pull out?

If you can come up with a good answer to that question, there's a really nice job lined up for you at the Pentagon. There's been a lot of rhetoric about "nation-building" in Afghanistan and preventing the country from becoming a bastion for terrorism, but how these goals are supposed to be accomplished has changed between administrations, departments, and even individual reports.

The closest thing to consensus is that Afghanistan should probably be democratic, as functioning democratic institutions seem to be the best at delegitimizing insurgencies.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Gowdy on McCarthy's Benghazi comments

quote:

“I heard from him at 6 a.m. the next morning,” said Gowdy, whose name was recently floated for House majority leader. “How many times can somebody apologize? Yes, he’s apologized as many times as a human can apologize. It doesn’t change it. It doesn’t fix it. The only thing you can say is, instead of listening to someone else’s words, why don’t you look at our actions?”

...

“I don’t have a background in mental health, so I wouldn’t have the right qualifications to lead right now,” he says. Who wants you to be in leadership? “No friend does,” he says.

He's also stopped taking McCarthy's calls, or calls from anyone else in the leadership.

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 11:14 on Oct 7, 2015

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Warcabbit posted:

Huh. Do you think he's realized how stupid he is?

Well, he's realized that managing the majority is a fool's errand and has removed himself from a horse race that would ruin his relationship with half the caucus, so he's not that stupid. He isn't Chaffetz, doing whatever he can to get attention.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

I can't believe I am typing this sentence, but the Freedom Caucus just endorsed Webster for Speaker of the House.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Dapper_Swindler posted:

whats webster's deal, other then i am assuming being a nutjob.

Edit: oh gently caress, he is a nutjob. like duggar style nutjob.

The Washington Post did a short bio on Webster in January, when Jim Jordan and Gowdy tried to use him in their coup against Boehner. Webster has some conservative credentials, including close involvement with the Terri Schiavo case, but he is very much not not a Tea Party candidate. Webster is known for hosting bipartisan dinners and lamenting the polarization in Congress. Heritage gives him just a 77 on its conservative scorecard. His pitch for the position is to get Congress working together by reorganizing it on district lines rather than party lines. His pitch also involves decentralization, but he very much wants to resolve the ongoing deadlock.

The Freedom Caucus's endorsement is very much a parliamentary move aimed at humiliating the establishment as opposed to an ideological pick. Webster's run was almost certainly motivated by a desire to give McCarthy some token opposition and to avoid allegations that Boehner was strong-arming the House into an establishment pick. Until today, Webster had no support whatsoever and was expected to get single-digit support on the House floor. He's a rank-and-file Congressman with no real leadership aspirations.

It's telling that the Freedom Caucus didn't endorse Chaffetz, who is considerably more conservative and is running an actual campaign. While Chaffetz has a long-shot at the Speaker's podium, it's still a shot and the Freedom Caucus's endorsement could have theoretically snowballed into a full coup. By endorsing Webster, the Freedom Caucus ensures that no one will have enough votes in the Republican Party's secret ballot.

I should also mention that all three candidates for Speaker met with the Freedom Caucus privately yesterday to give their pitch. I would suspect that McCarthy failed to offer enough concessions and the Caucus are using Webster to force McCarthy back to the negotiation table. McCarthy can concede to Freedom Caucus commands or watch his career explode brilliantly in front of the entire country.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Dapper_Swindler posted:

so basically it will now probably drag out for a stupid amount of time.

p much.


Essentially, the Tea Party is playing chicken with the Establishment. We joke about how the Freedom Caucus is full of raving loons but many members have embraced that image as a bargaining tool. The Freedom Caucus is using Nixon's Madman Theory. By making themselves seem irrational and volatile, they can exert substantial influence on House politics and force McCarthy to make agreements he would otherwise dismiss to avoid political catastrophe.

The worst case scenario would be for McCarthy to call the Freedom Caucus's bluff and refuse to renegotiate. While the Freedom Caucus has endorsed Webster, actually voting for him is very different and the caucus might not be able to ensure discipline within its own ranks. If Webster calls their bluff and is wrong, then we'll see both McCarthy and the Freedom Caucus annihilate one another on the House floor.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Hollismason posted:

Wait so there may be a situation where no one get's elected speaker because of the Freedom Caucus or has the extreme right viewed this as their way to seize more power?

To add onto what has already been said, the House vote is scheduled a day before Boehner's resignation. If the GOP somehow fails to elect a candidate, Boehner would remain Speaker until a majority is reached.

Might explain why Boehner is pushing so hard for Republicans to line up behind a single candidate. I can't imagine he wants to stick around any longer than he needs to.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

The Republican Party just had their secret preliminary vote for the Speakership, so I can think of three reasons why McCarthy might have dropped out.

Scenario one is that the Freedom Caucus made a deal that entailed McCarthy dropping out and a few legislative appointments in return for not embarrassing the party on the national stage.

Scenario two is that Chaffetz actually somehow mustered 50 people, as he claimed he had, and denied McCarthy of even attaining a majority.

Scenario three is that McCarthy realized that he really really didn't want to govern the GOP in its current state and that any attempt at leadership was a lost cause.

So, uh huh, congrats to Speaker Webster?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Boehner is trapped in hell.

He is never going to be able to resign.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Lyapunov Unstable posted:

The platinum coin thing being bullshit, I actually don't know whether there is an option. What if Boehner were incapacitated?

*Joementum bat signal*

The Platinum Coin is constitutionally dubious and the Federal Reserve has explicitly stated that they would not use it to avoid a default.

The White House's legal advisors have recommended what they think is the "least unconstitutional option," prioritization. To avoid default, President Obama would probably invoke Section 4 of the Fourteenth Amendment to make sure the country honors its bond obligations at the expense of all other services. Such a solution would entail a complete shutdown of entitlements, salaries, and most government agencies while the U.S. directed the remainder of its limited funds to fulfill bonds.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

The Freedom Caucus released their demands suggestions for the Republican Leadership's new focus as it finds a Speaker. Some highlights include:

quote:

Would you ensure conservatives have appropriate representation on the Steering committee?

Will you commit to adopt reforms to decentralize the Steering Committee and give members of the conference more input in selecting their regional representatives?

Would you ensure conservatives have representation on all House committees?

Instead of the current committees-reported version of reconciliation, would you pass a full repeal of Obamacare via reconciliation by the end of 2015 to fulfill the promises made to conservatives through the FY 15 budger resolution?

Would you maintain the current Budget Control Act cap levels and decline to take up legislation that would increase the caps?

Would you commit to impeach IRS Commissioner John Koskinen and pressure the Senate to take it up?

The Freedom Caucus would like to thank you for your time in answering these completely voluntary questions. Your participation is appreciated.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

OneThousandMonkeys posted:

If I were Ryan I wouldn't go near this thing. It's pretty much political seppuku for someone with higher aspirations who is already an extremely powerful House member.

@CostaReport: Westmoreland on his latest convo w/ Ryan: “I encouraged him. He just smiled.”

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Oct 9, 2015

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Has there been any discussion about going outside the House for a Speaker?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

I would be a little skeptical of those rumors.

quote:

Ellmers was referring to emails sent to dozens of Republican lawmakers recently by Steve Baer, a Chicago-based GOP donor, claiming the two Republican lawmakers were engaged in a romantic relationship.

Baer is a controversial figure who has regularly emailed Republican lawmakers. According to a profile in National Review, Baer sent an email to Republicans after the 2013 government shutdown that said, “Now let us dine on RINO flesh,” referring to the phrase “Republicans in name only.”

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

euphronius posted:

That sounds like a challenge. How good is Russia on Campus shootings?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_siege#Storming_by_Russian_forces

quote:

The Beslan school siege (also referred to as the Beslan school hostage crisis or Beslan massacre)[2][3][4] started on 1 September 2004, lasted three days and involved the capture of over 1,100 people as hostages (including 777 children),[5] ending with the death of 385 people. The crisis began when a group of armed Islamic terrorists, mostly Ingush and Chechen, occupied School Number One (SNO) in the town of Beslan, North Ossetia (an autonomous republic in the North Caucasus region of the Russian Federation) on 1 September 2004. The terrorists hostage-takers were the Riyadus-Salikhin Battalion, sent by the Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev, who demanded recognition of the independence of Chechnya and the UN and Russian withdrawal from Chechnya. On the third day of the standoff, Russian security forces stormed the building with the use of tanks, incendiary rockets and other heavy weapons.[6] At least 385 hostages were killed, including 186 children,[7][8] with a significant number of people injured and reported missing.

quote:

At least three but as many as nine powerful Shmel rockets were fired at the school from the positions of the special forces (three[11] or nine[94] empty disposable tubes were later found on the rooftops of nearby apartment blocks). The use of the Shmel rockets, classified in Russia as flamethrowers and in the West as thermobaric weapons, was initially denied, but later admitted by the government.[13][95] A report by an aide to the military prosecutor of the North Ossetian garrison stated that RPG-26 rocket-propelled grenades were used as well.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

The Freedom Caucus is sticking with Webster and are threatening to deny Ryan the necessary support should he decide to run.

The decision not to recant is problematic. One of Ryan's unofficial conditions is that he have near unanimous support of the caucus before he tries to lead the House.

Incidentally, if Ryan does decide not to run, the race opens up to:

Lynn Westmoreland (Ga.)
Conaway, Peter Roskam (Ill.)
Tom Cole (Okla.)
John Kline (Minn.)
Darrell Issa (Calif.)
Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.)
Jeff Miller (Fla.)
Bill Flores (Texas)
Pete Sessions (Texas)

Which is about 4% of the current conference.

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 13:52 on Oct 10, 2015

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Hollismason posted:

So if Ryan and McCarthy are out then that probably means someone like Webster in the role. I don't know much about that guy but it sounds like a bad idea to have an obstructionist in charge.

What kind of bad case scenario are we looking at if one of the Freedom whatever get's into the Speaker Role?

Webster is probably not going to become Speaker because he has no authority within the conference and would be a transparent Freedom Caucus puppet.

The most probable scenario is Boehner staying on, which is really the worst situation for everyone in the House. Boehner hates his job and will have even less control over his conference now that he has announced his resignation. The Republican Conference simultaneously hates Boehner but can't unite around a candidate that would have enough power to replace him.

There's also a slim chance that Establishment Republicans and moderate Democrats might come together to support a bipartisan caretaker Speaker.

Hollismason posted:

Would someone from the Freedom Caucus be obstructionist enough to cause a debt default?

More likely than a week ago, but still very unlikely. Maybe a 15% chance.

sullat posted:

Are there enough not-crazies to make that difficult? Just like all you need is 40 crazies to derail the speaker vote, all you need is 40 not-crazies to derail anything as stupid and politically damaging as that.

A vast majority of the Republican Conference knows that an impeachment proceeding would be political suicide. Short of a Pride's Purge, it isn't happening.

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Oct 10, 2015

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Pick posted:

So apparently a lot of gun talk is going on, but I was hoping someone had some thoughts on what's going to happen regarding the next Speaker? Anyone here have any credible-seeming projections? Entire thing seems like a poo poo-show and the person with the remote in the house just watches Fox. And even they seem to be half-admitting it's a shitshow.

Ryan seems to be slowly coming to terms with the position. Last week he went from "definitely no" to "probably no" to "I'll consider it." He's under substantial pressure from everyone in the Republican Party of any importance, from the owner of the Chicago Cubs to Mitt Romney, to run. If Ryan declines, it will be because he doesn't think he can get unanimity in the House. He doesn't want to drag his career aspirations through the mud.

If Ryan refuses, the likeliest candidate for Speaker is Boehner. Boehner has already stated that he would stay Speaker until the House had agreed on someone to take over. Given that there are about ten different candidates considering a run, it is unlikely that the Republican Party will reach a consensus in the immediate future. That leaves Boehner by sheer inertia.

If both Ryan and Boehner are somehow unable to fill the position, there's been a few names floated for a "caretaker Speaker," a man who would just fulfill administrative duties until the next election and do little else. Tom Cole, Jim Kline, and Lynn Westmoreland have been mentioned a lot for this possibility. It is questionable, though, whether any of these individuals would succeed in getting the necessary votes without making major concessions to the Freedom Caucus.

After that, it's really up in the air. Everyone is waiting to see what Ryan will do and until he makes a final announcement, you won't see any rival campaigns. About 5% of the current conference is considering a run.

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 03:17 on Oct 13, 2015

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Raskolnikov38 posted:

It is January 2017, John Boehner finally relaxes at his Ohioan home, having had to remain Speaker for an entire extra year. He flips on C-SPAN to watch the election of the man that will finally succeed him, marking his freedom hell, one of his own partial making, as officially over. To his shock and horror each and every republican casts a vote for 'The Honorable John Boehner of Ohio" . Boehner screams NO and sobs as each vote is cast; before mercifully passing out the last thing he sees is the cackling face of Ted Cruz.

John Boehner is trapped in an episode of the Twilight Zone.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Hillary won the debate, not by a huge margin but she dismissed some of the issues that have dogged her and made a good case for her candidacy. While Bernie also did well, he really didn't provide the outstanding performance he needed to overcome Clinton dominance. I will, however, be interested in seeing if Bernie gains any minority supporters from his statements tonight.

Then there was the clownshow in the background.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

We'll have to see how the polls shake out, but I'm skeptical of the claim that Bernie increased his visibility in any significant way. He might have improved his favorability numbers, especially among Establishment Democrats for his defense of Clinton, but I didn't see anything in the debate that will expand his base much further. There was very little in the debate that suggests he will overcome his issues with minority voters and I don't see moderate Democrats flocking to him for any reason.

His fundraising might do some good for the campaign, though. Those are some very impressive numbers.

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QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Thump! posted:

I don't know, mentioning that he killed a guy might get him a bump in the polls.

Were he in the right debate, of course. Still not sure why he's a democrat.

The Republican Party devoured its centrist wing a long time ago. There's nowhere else for Webb to go.

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