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Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Strudel Man posted:

America didn't have to fix Libya. It just had to not help the rebels, who would have lost fairly early on without American intervention.

Right, that would been a great outcome.

I don't know, I'm not saying the situation in Libya is anything other than terrible, but I also don't think any Libyans are wishing Gaddafi was still around.

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Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Strudel Man posted:

Really? I would honestly expect that to be a fairly common sentiment at this point, all things considered.

I've done some research (unpublished so I hate to even bring it up) amongst Libyans, they're certainly not happy with status quo, but there's not a widespread desire to go back to how things were. I couldn't tell you exactly why, but it seems like people now still have some hope that one day things will get better, even if they're poo poo now. And that optimism didn't exist at all under Gaddafi.

Xandu fucked around with this message at 23:38 on Oct 23, 2015

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
It does seem like the us has tried ever intervention strategy in MENA over the past 15 years, from full scale occupation to non-intervention to aerial support/nfz to covert arms supplying and they've all been a pretty clear failure.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Neurolimal posted:

Just curious, what prevented us from cooperating with the Libyan government for a joint-strike operation to help pacify crazy post-war tribes and push back ISIS? A lot of the time when I hear about Libya people seem to act like the only options were an Iraq occupation or nothing. Is collaborating with another military something that is only reserved for whitecivilizedFirst World countries?

Gaddafis terrorism was no better than ISIS's. And that strategy of cooperating with monsters for geopolitical gains is the kind of thing people constantly criticize the US for.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Neurolimal posted:

Uh, I'm preeetty sure I was talking about the post-Gadaffi government.

You can tell because I dont think ISIS was even a thing when gadaffi was tethered to his mortal coil.

Oops. I didn't realize because I don't think there is a post-Gaddafi government.

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Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Main Paineframe posted:

Honestly, I feel like the problem is the same one that has haunted US efforts at interventions for much longer than 15 years: a lack of a solid, credible alternative to the existing government. Either we prop up some vague, unstable puppet government that lacks popularity or credibility amongst the populace and is barely able to sustain itself even with US support, we support an equally brutal regime because they're the most viable opposition group, or the US halfasses the support because the rebels/revolutionaries are all too nasty for us to be able to pretend they suit our rhetoric about human rights and democracy.

Ultimately, the method of intervention doesn't matter half as much as the popularity and legitimacy of the resulting government. If the population doesn't like who ended up in charge, then insurgency is practically inevitable - particularly in the Middle East, where a century of Western meddling and interventions along with civil wars and brutal dictators and ethnic violence has supplied the populations with an abundance of guns.

Yeah but if we've learned anything, it's that people rarely rally behind a single opposition force. And also that the US is beyond awful at identifying legitimate opposition to begin with (Chalabi).

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