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imgay
May 12, 2014

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Confirming, I couldn't find thread

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Meinberg
Oct 9, 2011

inspired by but legally distinct from CATS (2019)

imgay posted:

Confirming, I couldn't find thread

hahahaha rekt

imgay
May 12, 2014

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
I was looking all over the games room

AnonymousNarcotics
Aug 6, 2012

we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back
Hello I am confirming I am Rarity in all known universes

AnonymousNarcotics
Aug 6, 2012

we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back
Also confirming I kind of have no idea what's going on in this game

Pittsburgh Lambic
Feb 16, 2011
Same. At least I can just post without caring about whether my posts will look scummy, because I don't know if I'm scummy either :)

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer

Pittsburgh Lambic posted:

Same. At least I can just post without caring about whether my posts will look scummy, because I don't know if I'm scummy either :)

##vote Pittsburgh Lambic

Pittsburgh Lambic
Feb 16, 2011
Seriously, what do we even get from our PMs other than "you're this one line item on the list that might at some point become more scummy?"

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer
That's it. You send a night 0 investigation to jedit

Double May Care
Mar 28, 2012

We need Dragon-type Pokemon to help us prepare our food before we cook it. We're not sure why!

I'm just going to do what I always do in event of multiple outcomes: wait until the last minute when there are the fewest options and take the easiest way possible.

Just like quantum physicists.

(This is a joke.)

Pittsburgh Lambic
Feb 16, 2011
Trying to understand this about the rules, at least the ones that seem more relevant to night 0:

quote:

Starting from night 0, the seer will receive one vision each night of a player of their choice as either good or evil. From night 1 onwards, this will occur after the werewolf killing.

This means that each player who could still be playing the seer must choose a target and will receive a vision. The vision is only accurate if they are really the seer, although it may still turn out to be correct by chance even if they are not.

The results of the vision are chosen randomly, in proportion to the probability of the target being good or evil, if the player having the vision really is the seer.

Players may also specifically elect not to receive a vision.

[...]

Each time a player receives a seer vision, every game state in which they are the seer and their target's role does not match their vision is eliminated.

Does this mean that, say -- if I investigate somebody and am told that they're scum, then in the grouping of 100-ish universes where I'm the cop, the subgrouping of 80-ish universes where the target is town are all destroyed?

How is it determined whether I'm the cop for the purposes of whether my investigation is "accurate?" Is this a diceroll based on the hidden probability that I'm the cop?

Double May Care
Mar 28, 2012

We need Dragon-type Pokemon to help us prepare our food before we cook it. We're not sure why!

I just read that players who are dead in the true timeline still count toward votes even when it's revealed that they never existed at that point of time.

So, like, we could vote for someone who is rolled to be scum, and their nightkill can retroactively occur on someone who voted to lynch them.

So in a sense dead people can avenge themselves without knowing they're enacting revenge on their own killer.

The possibilities of this game fill me with glee.

Meinberg
Oct 9, 2011

inspired by but legally distinct from CATS (2019)

Rather Watch Them posted:

I just read that players who are dead in the true timeline still count toward votes even when it's revealed that they never existed at that point of time.

So, like, we could vote for someone who is rolled to be scum, and their nightkill can retroactively occur on someone who voted to lynch them.

So in a sense dead people can avenge themselves without knowing they're enacting revenge on their own killer.

The possibilities of this game fill me with glee.

Talk about spooky action at a distance!

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

Quantum is a weird, weird game. I've played it twice in real life, but with private probabilities and plurality lynch.

imgay
May 12, 2014

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Theres gonna be some sixth sense rear end poo poo in this game

Jedit
Dec 10, 2011

Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

Pittsburgh Lambic posted:

Trying to understand this about the rules, at least the ones that seem more relevant to night 0:


Does this mean that, say -- if I investigate somebody and am told that they're scum, then in the grouping of 100-ish universes where I'm the cop, the subgrouping of 80-ish universes where the target is town are all destroyed?

How is it determined whether I'm the cop for the purposes of whether my investigation is "accurate?" Is this a diceroll based on the hidden probability that I'm the cop?

No. Here's a simplified example that only covers one dimension of the game.

Say there was one Scum, one Cop and 6 VT. The following grid of 56 universes would exist:

code:
    Is Scum
    A B C D E F G H
  A X
I B   X
s C     X
  D       X
C E         X
o F           X
p G             X
  H               X
A has a 12.5% chance of being Scum. B investigates A. A random number 1-1000 is generated; if it is 1-125 then B's result comes from a universe where A is Scum, otherwise it comes from a universe where A is Town. Also this result can only come from a universe where B is the Cop.

Let's say it comes back Scum. Now, in universes where B is the Cop, A cannot be Town and nobody else can be Scum because there's only one Scum. Universes where this would be the case are eliminated:

code:
    Is Scum
    A B C D E F G H
  A X
I B   X X X X X X X
s C     X
  D       X
C E         X
o F           X
p G             X
  H               X
If A later dies and flips Vanilla Town, then the grid changes again:


code:
    Is Scum
    A B C D E F G H
  A X X X X X X X X
I B X X X X X X X X
s C     X
  D       X
C E         X
o F           X
p G             X
  H               X
There is now no universe in which A is Scum because he's flipped Town, and no universe in which B is the Cop because he's had an incorrect result. B loses the ability to submit investigations.

The same thing will happen when you try to kill someone. Universes in which you are the Alpha Scum and they are Alive Town are eliminated, increasing their Dead percentage.

Jedit fucked around with this message at 09:29 on Oct 26, 2015

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer
I suggest no one think too heavily on the rules right now and instead just play Mafia

AnonymousNarcotics
Aug 6, 2012

we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back
Sounds good.

##vote kashuno

Pittsburgh Lambic
Feb 16, 2011
Thanks for the detailed explanation!

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

One thing I was wondering about, and I was hoping someone with good knowledge of probabilities can tell me...

What, if any, are the long term effects from almost everyone investigating the same person in night 0 vs. (almost) everyone investigating a different person in night 0?

Jedit
Dec 10, 2011

Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

Still waiting on two N0 actions. Once I have those I'll advance the game to Day 1 and post the new probability matrix. Anyone I haven't heard from in six hours from now will lose their action for the night.

Meinberg
Oct 9, 2011

inspired by but legally distinct from CATS (2019)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYX-NSZMqt0

Odysseus S. Grant
Oct 12, 2011

Cats is the oldest and strongest emotion
of mankind
All I need is a one-in-a-million shot, and I'm 90% guaranteed to win.

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer

AnonymousNarcotics posted:

Sounds good.

##vote kashuno

jokes on you I have a 0% chance of being dead:smug:

HiipFire
Sep 1, 2013

JENNY DEATH LIVES

Jedit posted:

Still waiting on two N0 actions. Once I have those I'll advance the game to Day 1 and post the new probability matrix. Anyone I haven't heard from in six hours from now will lose their action for the night.

Plz do it quick so I can see d1 tonight :)

Odysseus S. Grant
Oct 12, 2011

Cats is the oldest and strongest emotion
of mankind

Kashuno posted:

jokes on you I have a 0% chance of being dead:smug:

Clearly we live in the worst possible timeline.

Pittsburgh Lambic
Feb 16, 2011
What I'm getting from the rules is when we lynch someone, a diceroll is made, and if the diceroll says that the lynched person is alpha scum then every universe in which that person isn't alpha scum ends. Then, everybody that the alpha scum ever targeted for a nightkill dies instantly, and a diceroll is made to see whether each dead person was the cop.

This could be fun.

HiipFire
Sep 1, 2013

JENNY DEATH LIVES
Well they die in the way that their dead percentage increases but yeah basically

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer

Cathulhu posted:

Clearly we live in the worst possible timeline.

This is your first game and you've already learned the right thing to say!

Jedit
Dec 10, 2011

Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

Night 0 actions processed

code:
           Good Evil Dead Lock
Player  1:  84%  15%   0%  82%
Player  2:  83%  16%   0%  74%
Player  3:  81%  18%   0%  72%
Player  4:  83%  16%   0%  74%
Player  5:  82%  17%   0%  72%
Player  6:  83%  16%   0%  75%
Player  7:  81%  18%   0%  72%
Player  8:  83%  16%   0%  75%
Player  9:  85%  14%   0%  76%
Player 10:  83%  16%   0%  74%
Player 11:  81%  18%   0%  72%
Player 12:  83%  16%   0%  74%

Remaining universes: 962
It is now Day 1. Go to.

Jedit fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Oct 27, 2015

votefinder
Jul 6, 2010

scoop scoop
Votecount for Day 1

Pittsburgh Lambic (1): Kashuno
Kashuno (1): AnonymousNarcotics

Not Voting (10): Carbon dioxide, Cathulhu, garthoneeye, Ghostwoods, HiipFire, imgay, Meinberg, Pittsburgh Lambic, Rather Watch Them, WilliamAnderson

With 12 alive, it's 7 votes to lynch. The current deadline is October 28th, 2015 at 11 p.m. GMT -- that's in about 1 day, 23 hours.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

I investigated ANarc and got a result of Not evil.

AnonymousNarcotics
Aug 6, 2012

we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back
Haha I investigated garth and got a result of not evil! Twinsies

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer
Idk how relevant results are on n0

AnonymousNarcotics
Aug 6, 2012

we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back
Probably not very. It's just funny that we investigated each other

imgay
May 12, 2014

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
kash aint evil

Pittsburgh Lambic
Feb 16, 2011
Strange that Player 1's "lock" chance went up so much. What does that mean? Should we try to find out who player 1 is and lynch them to solve this mystery?

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer

Pittsburgh Lambic posted:

Strange that Player 1's "lock" chance went up so much. What does that mean? Should we try to find out who player 1 is and lynch them to solve this mystery?

p1 is still very likely good so no.

Pittsburgh Lambic
Feb 16, 2011
Since we're doing that, AnonymousNarcotics isn't evil. I also tried to nightkill AnonymousNarcotics but that was before I got the PM saying I didn't get to nightkill on night 0.

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Double May Care
Mar 28, 2012

We need Dragon-type Pokemon to help us prepare our food before we cook it. We're not sure why!

I have conflicting info on the player formerly known as Rarity, so you could say Narcotics' fate is uncertain.

##Vote AnonymousNarcotics

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